O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador UKRAINE. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador UKRAINE. Mostrar todas as postagens

terça-feira, 26 de novembro de 2024

Eastern Europe Is In The Crosshairs: Ukraine and Poland - Michal Kranz (Persuasion)

 Eastern Europe Is In The Crosshairs

A deal in Ukraine seems all but inevitable. That puts Eastern Europe in real danger. 

Polish troops at NATO Multinational Corps Northeast, February 2, 2024. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images.)

For much of the past year in Warsaw, the first question I’d be asked by Poles and Ukrainians alike when they learned I’d grown up in the United States was who I thought would win the 2024 election. The follow-up, inevitably, was whether a victorious Trump would really let Ukraine and Eastern Europe fall to the Russians.

In the day or two following Trump’s win, this fear was palpable among Polish friends and loved ones. But, after months of warnings of the apocalyptic consequences of Trump’s return to power for Ukraine and NATO’s East, a new narrative has emerged along Europe’s frontier with Russia—don’t panic, but prepare.

The likely conclusion of the war in Ukraine during Trump’s first year in office will only be the tip of the iceberg of the transformations on the horizon for Eastern Europe. States in the region, most notably Poland and the Baltics, are already looking beyond Ukraine to a scenario in which Russia might soon be ready to unleash its war machine on NATO’s East itself, which, without ironclad American security guarantees, would be more vulnerable than ever. And yet, for Eastern Europe, this tense moment offers surprising opportunities. In the absence of America’s guiding and often constraining hand, they will have the chance to redefine their own defense future, reap the rewards of the post-war economic order in Ukraine, and finally force Western Europe to confront the realities of the multipolar world head-on.

What we are looking at, in other words, is a complete shift of the balance of power in Eastern Europe. In the short term, Poland and the Baltics will have no choice but to pick up slack and assume a stronger position in Europe than they have in memory, as they stare down the barrel of a Russia that will only be further emboldened by a de facto triumph in Ukraine and the weakening of the American security blanket in Europe. Meanwhile, Ukraine is facing its worst-case scenario, with the spigot of U.S. support likely to turn itself off—forcing Europe to take the reins of Ukraine’s, and its own, defense for the first time in generations.

The chances of Trump doing an about-face on aid for Ukraine and continuing to fund its defense are, unfortunately, very slim—and Ukraine is expected to be forced to the negotiating table. European efforts, led by Poland, to continue supporting Ukraine’s military, will at best stave off the inevitable, and the Biden administration knows this. Recent changes in policy like the lifting of prohibitions on Ukraine’s use of long-range ATACMS against Russian territory and shipments of anti-personnel mines are, more than anything else, measures meant to help Ukraine secure as favorable a position as possible prior to negotiations and to give it at least a modicum of deterrence against future Russian aggression.

It goes almost without saying that any peace deal is likely to end in the permanent occupation of the territories Russia currently holds and in forcing Ukraine to abandon its NATO ambitions—in short, a win for Russia. But even then, many questions remain about how such a “peace” would be administered in practice, and how Ukraine could avoid being swallowed up by Russia down the line. The leading proposal of the Trump transition team, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, would compel Ukraine to promise not to join NATO for twenty years, while a continuing flow of U.S. armaments deters future Russian aggression and some kind of European peacekeeping force polices the demilitarized zone where the fighting has frozen. 

A proposal along those lines suits Poland well, with Polish president Andrzej Duda last year suggesting that Polish troops could be deployed to Ukraine as part of a peacekeeping effort. Meanwhile, Poland is poised to benefit immensely from post-war reconstruction efforts, with 3,000 Polish companies registering with the Polish Investment and Trade Agency to participate in Ukraine’s reconstruction. Helping to guarantee Ukraine’s security on the ground does of course carry considerable risk—bringing Poland all the closer to a clash with Russia. Nevertheless, this is exactly the sort of role Polish leaders have spent years preparing the country’s military for.

The belief among Eastern Europe’s leaders is that, no matter what they do, they are in Russia’s crosshairs—and the priority must be an active defense. Leaders further west on the continent have tepidly come around to the same conclusion, with recent pledges to invest not only in national defense spending, but also in developing Europe’s military-industrial complex. There is no reason to think that Putin will be placated through a negotiated settlement in Ukraine. Quite the contrary. With, effectively, a win in Ukraine behind him and a U.S. leadership unwilling to engage militarily in Europe beyond the bare minimum, Putin may well decide the time is ripe for further reconstitution of the Soviet sphere of influence. Western Europe has been inching up its readiness, with France for instance on track to bring its defense spending up the 2% GDP mark this year, but Eastern Europeans know that if Russia strikes, it will be up to them to hold the line. Poland at the moment has the third largest military in NATO, and, if Ukraine’s army was able to keep Russian forces at bay for nearly three years, the hope is that Poland’s more robust and technologically advanced military could do the same.

It is hard to overstate just how uncertain the security of Eastern Europe suddenly becomes with Trump’s election. A full-scale American retreat from NATO is less likely than widespread discussion might make it seem—the recent landmark opening of a U.S. base in Poland and efforts to Trump-proof American aid to Ukraine and NATO mean that it will be difficult for Trump to distance himself from the alliance entirely. But, with Russia updating its nuclear doctrine, firing a nuclear-capable ballistic missile at Ukraine, and last week placing the new U.S. base in Poland on its potential target list, Putin clearly believes that he has the upper hand—and that Europe lacks the will or the ability to properly defend its Eastern frontier. 

With Trump on track to alter the entire regional paradigm a few short months from now, NATO’s East is scrambling to mitigate the fallout. That puts Poland, in particular, in the hot seat and in need of not only proving its worth as a rising military powerhouse, but also of working with countries like Romania, Sweden, the Baltic states, and besieged Ukraine to collectively keep Moscow at bay. But this moment is, above all, a crucible for Europe. For decades, Western Europeans have been able to bask in the security blanket the United States offered and to indulge in pacifistic visions. That illusion ended first for the states bordering Putin’s Russia, but Europe is now facing the same fork in the road—either make security a priority and forge an independent path forward on defense, or let Putin continue to have his way.

Michal Kranz is a Warsaw-based journalist who covers Eastern Europe and the Middle East. He has reported from the ground during the war in Ukraine, covered politics and society in Lebanon, and regularly reports on regional developments from Poland.


quinta-feira, 17 de outubro de 2024

Zelenskiy’s 'victory plan' to EU, NATO - Andrew Gray

Ukraine's Zelenskiy to pitch 'victory plan' to EU, NATO By Andrew Gray Reuters, October 16, 202411:42 PM Summary Ukrainian leader takes blueprint to Brussels Plan includes call for NATO invitation Kyiv's key allies have not endorsed plan so far Moscow says Ukraine needs to 'sober up' BRUSSELS, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy takes his "victory plan" to the European Union and NATO on Thursday, pitching for a NATO membership invitation and a major increase in military support for Kyiv's campaign against Russia's invasion. Zelenskiy's plan contains requests that Ukraine's allies have so far declined to grant, such as a call for an invitation to join the U.S.-led NATO military alliance and permission to use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Zelenskiy presented the plan to Ukraine's parliament on Wednesday at a critical time, as Moscow's forces advance in the east, a bleak winter of power cuts looms and a U.S. presidential election casts uncertainty over the future of Western support. On Thursday, he brings the plan, which he said could end the war "no later than next year", to a summit of European Union leaders and a meeting of NATO defence ministers, both in Brussels. He has already presented the five-point blueprint, which Zelenskiy said has three secret annexes, to key Western leaders such as U.S. President Joe Biden. While voicing strong support for Kyiv, none has given the plan a full-throated endorsement. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday the plan represented "a strong signal" from Zelenskiy but added: "That doesn't mean that I here can say I support the whole plan. That would be a bit difficult, because there are many issues." Rutte said NATO's 32 members would have to discuss the plan in detail to understand it better. "You will have maybe some different views on particular aspects of the plan, but that doesn't say that we are not standing squarely behind Ukraine," he said. NATO MEMBERSHIP CALL NATO has declared that Ukraine will become a member, without saying when. But it cannot join while at war, as this would draw the alliance directly into a conflict with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited Ukraine's potential membership of NATO as a reason for the invasion. Zelenskiy argued NATO could issue an invitation now, even if membership itself comes further down the line. "We understand that NATO membership is a matter for the future, not the present," he told the Ukrainian parliament. "But Putin must see that his geopolitical calculations are failing. The Russian people must feel this, that their 'tsar' has lost geopolitically to the world." The Kremlin said it was too early to comment in detail on the plan, but that Kyiv needed to "sober up" and realise the futility of the policies it was pursuing. Zelenskiy said his plan also proposes establishing a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" inside Ukraine to protect against threats from Russia and to destroy its military power. He did not elaborate. The plan also offers the West a role in developing Ukraine's natural mineral resources and proposes Ukrainian troops could replace some U.S. forces in Europe. The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. Reporting by Andrew Gray, Sabine Siebold and Lili Bayer; Writing by Andrew Gray; Editing by Bill Berkrot. Andrew Gray is Reuters' European Affairs Editor. Based in Brussels, he covers NATO and the European Union and leads a pan-European team of reporters focused on diplomacy, defence and security. A journalist for almost 30 years, he has previously been based in the UK, Germany, Geneva, the Balkans, West Africa and Washington, where he reported on the Pentagon. He covered the Iraq war in 2003 and contributed a chapter to a Reuters book on the conflict. He has also worked at Politico Europe as a senior editor and podcast host, served as the main editor for a fellowship programme for journalists from the Balkans, and contributed to the BBC's From Our Own Correspondent radio show.

sexta-feira, 27 de setembro de 2024

The war is going badly. Ukraine and its allies must change course - The Economist leader

 Zelensky in Washington

The war is going badly. Ukraine and its allies must change course

Time for credible war aims—and NATO membership

The Economist, September 26, 2024

IF UKRAINE AND its Western backers are to win, they must first have the courage to admit that they are losing. In the past two years Russia and Ukraine have fought a costly war of attrition. That is unsustainable. When Volodymyr Zelensky travelled to America to see President Joe Biden this week, he brought a “plan for victory”, expected to contain a fresh call for arms and money. In fact, Ukraine needs something far more ambitious: an urgent change of course.

A measure of Ukraine’s declining fortunes is Russia’s advance in the east, particularly around the city of Pokrovsk. So far, it is slow and costly. Recent estimates of Russian losses run at about 1,200 killed and wounded a day, on top of the total of 500,000. But Ukraine, with a fifth as many people as Russia, is hurting too. Its lines could crumble before Russia’s war effort is exhausted.

Ukraine is also struggling off the battlefield. Russia has destroyed so much of the power grid that Ukrainians will face the freezing winter with daily blackouts of up to 16 hours. People are tired of war. The army is struggling to mobilise and train enough troops to hold the line, let alone retake territory. There is a growing gap between the total victory many Ukrainians say they want, and their willingness or ability to fight for it.

Abroad, fatigue is setting in. The hard right in Germany and France argue that supporting Ukraine is a waste of money. Donald Trump could well become president of the United States. He is capable of anything, but his words suggest that he wants to sell out Ukraine to Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin.

If Mr Zelensky continues to defy reality by insisting that Ukraine’s army can take back all the land Russia has stolen since 2014, he will drive away Ukraine’s backers and further divide Ukrainian society. Whether or not Mr Trump wins in November, the only hope of keeping American and European support and uniting Ukrainians is for a new approach that starts with leaders stating honestly what victory means.

As The Economist has long argued, Mr Putin attacked Ukraine not for its territory, but to stop it becoming a prosperous, Western- leaning democracy. Ukraine’s partners need to get Mr Zelensky to persuade his people that this remains the most important prize in this war. However much Mr Zelensky wants to drive Russia from all Ukraine, including Crimea, he does not have the men or arms to do it. Neither he nor the West should recognise Russia’s bogus claim to the occupied territories; rather, they should retain reunification as an aspiration.


In return for Mr Zelensky embracing this grim truth, Western leaders need to make his overriding war aim credible by ensuring that Ukraine has the military capacity and security guarantees it needs. If Ukraine can convincingly deny Russia any prospect of advancing further on the battlefield, it will be able to demonstrate the futility of further big offensives. Whether or not a formal peace deal is signed, that is the only way to wind down the fighting and ensure the security on which Ukraine’s prosperity and democracy will ultimately rest.

This will require greater supplies of the weaponry Mr Zelensky is asking for. Ukraine needs long-range missiles that can hit military targets deep in Russia and air defences to protect its infrastructure. Crucially, it also needs to make its own weapons. Today, the country’s arms industry has orders worth $7bn, only about a third of its potential capacity. Weapons firms from America and some European countries have been stepping in; others should, too. The supply of home-made weapons is more dependable and cheaper than Western-made ones. It can also be more innovative. Ukraine has around 250 drone companies, some of them world leaders— including makers of the long-range machines that may have been behind a recent hit on a huge arms dump in Russia’s Tver province.

The second way to make Ukraine’s defence credible is for Mr Biden to say Ukraine must be invited to join NATO now, even if it is divided and, possibly, without a formal armistice. Mr Biden is known to be cautious about this. Such a declaration from him, endorsed by leaders in Britain, France and Germany, would go far beyond today’s open-ended words about an “irrevocable path” to membership.

This would be controversial, because NATO’s members are expected to support each other if one of them is attacked. In opening a debate about this Article 5 guarantee, Mr Biden could make clear that it would not cover Ukrainian territory Russia occupies today, as with East Germany when West Germany joined NATO in 1955; and that Ukraine would not necessarily garrison foreign NATO troops in peacetime, as with Norway in 1949.

NATO membership entails risks. If Russia struck Ukraine again, America could face a terrible dilemma: to back Ukraine and risk war with a nuclear foe; or refuse and weaken its alliances around the world. However, abandoning Ukraine would also weaken all of America’s alliances—one reason China, Iran and North Korea are backing Russia. Mr Putin is clear that he sees the real enemy as the West. It is deluded to think that leaving Ukraine to be defeated will bring peace.

Indeed, a dysfunctional Ukraine could itself become a dangerous neighbour. Already, corruption and nationalism are on the rise. If Ukrainians feel betrayed, Mr Putin may radicalise battle-hardened militias against the West and NATO. He managed something similar in Donbas where, after 2014, he turned some Russian-speaking Ukrainians into partisans ready to go to war against their compatriots.

For too long, the West has hidden behind the pretence that if Ukraine set the goals, it would decide what arms to supply. Yet Mr Zelensky cannot define victory without knowing the level of Western support. By contrast, the plan outlined above is self- reinforcing. A firmer promise of NATO membership would help Mr Zelensky redefine victory; a credible war aim would deter Russia; NATO would benefit from Ukraine’s revamped arms industry. Forging a new victory plan asks a lot of Mr Zelensky and Western leaders. But if they demur, they will usher in Ukraine’s defeat. And that would be much worse. 


domingo, 25 de agosto de 2024

Timothy Snyder on the non-sensical war of aggression by Putin against Ukraine


sábado, 13 de julho de 2024

Desafios da atualidade política mundial - presidente Mike Johnson, da USA House of Representatives

 Speaker of the House Mike Johnson at Hudson on the eve of NATO’s seventy-fifth summit:

Key Insights

1. America’s actions will determine the path of the free world.

“While democracy is not perfect, the burden of self-government is certainly far lighter than the yoke of tyranny. But right now, absent American leadership, we’re looking at a future that could be well-defined by communism and tyranny, rather than liberty and opportunity and security. In Europe, Putin has made it clear that his plans don’t stop with Ukraine. He’s likened himself to Tsar Peter the Great, and you can read his essay about restoring the Russian Empire—an empire that would include our military partners in Vilnius, Helsinki, and Warsaw. Xi Jinping made abundantly clear he’s interested in expanding his communist footholds, including in the South China Sea. In the Middle East, the ayatollah wants to resurrect the caliphate and eliminate Israel.”

 

2. An axis of adversaries is working to undermine the United States militarily and economically.

“Today, we don’t face one primary enemy as we did in the Soviet Union, and so far, thankfully, we don’t see a new kind of Tripartite Pact. But we do see a group of nations openly aligned against the United States. It’s an interconnected web of threats. I refer to it as a China-led axis, composed of partner regimes in Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and even Cuba. Now they each have their own cultures and their own specific sinister aims, but they all wake up every morning thinking how they can take down America. And they’re increasingly using their collective military, technological, and financial resources to empower one another in their various efforts to cut off our trade routes, and steal our technology, and harm our troops, and upend our economy.”



domingo, 19 de maio de 2024

The State of Russia in 2024: Documentary by the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW)


quinta-feira, 2 de maio de 2024

Um dia na vida da guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia: 1/05/2024 (Centre for Defence Strategies - CDS)

Russia's war on Ukraine. 01.05.24

 In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) "Khortytsia", on the Kupyansk direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 6 enemy attacks in the areas of Berestove, Stelmakhivka and east of Kopanka. On the Lyman direction, they repelled 21 attacks in the areas of Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, Makiivka, Nevske, Terny, and Serebriansk Forest. On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 Russian attacks in the areas of Bilohorivka, Verkhnyokamianske, Rozdolivka, Spirne, Novyi, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, and Chasiv Yar. 

 

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone on the Avdiivka direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 33 enemy attacks in the areas of Arkhanhelske, Keramik, Sokil, Umanske, Semenivka, Yasnobrodivks, and Netaylove. On the Novopavlivka direction, they continued to hold back the enemy in the areas of Heorhiivka, Praskoviivka, and Urozhaine, where the adversary, supported by aviation, attempted to breach Ukrainian troops' defenses 18 times. On the Orikhiv direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, attacked the positions of the Ukrainian Defense Forces 5 times in the area of Staromayorske, Robotyne and southwest of Bilohirya.

In the operational zone of the "Odesa" OSG on the Kherson direction, the enemy remains determined to dislodge the units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces from the bridgeheads on the left bank of the Dnipro River and launched 2 unsuccessful attacks.

General conclusion: 

·     The command of the Russian forces is executing a significant troop movement between operational directions.

·     The adversary's command has initiated the repositioning of operational-tactical and army aviation assets from forward airbases, including those situated deep within the operational theater, to the interior of Russian territory following the delivery of long-range strike capabilities, such as ATACMS missiles, to the Ukrainian Defense Forces. The overall strength of enemy aviation units deployed directly at forward airbases has decreased from 303-305 units of combat and special aviation to 280-283 units.

·     Russian troops persist in maneuvering around Chasiv Yar from the flanks via Bohdanivka in the northeast and Ivanivske in the east, bolstering their presence to advance towards the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal. The frequency of attacks on Chasiv Yar surpasses those on the Avdiivka direction, where the adversary has temporarily halted its push.

·     The adversary's tactics near Chasiv Yar remain consistent, resembling the operation near Bakhmut: initially, positions are assaulted by "Storm-Z" and "Storm-V" punitive units followed by assault landing units that consolidate their gains.

·     Russian forces are advancing near Keramik to move towards Arkhanhelske, while also attempting to push westward from Ocheretyne towards Sokol and southwest towards Novopokrovske – Novoselivka Persha.

·     The adversary's tactics in the Ocheretyne and Novokalynove areas have shifted. The enemy seeks unmined gaps between the Ukrainian defense positions, attacking through them and advancing northward, parallel to the Ukrainian defensive line.

·     The adversary's attempts to consolidate their positions northwest of Avdiivka force them to choose between advancing westward towards Pokrovsk or moving north to support the grouping operating near Chasiv Yar.

·     The "Tavriya" OSG command, not waiting for tactical losses, replaced several forward units with fresh ones, indicating the presence of reserves and proper control of the situation by the OSG command staff.

·     Mechanical malfunction was detected in GLSDB ammunition, causing the separation section of the deployment block to fail, leading to GBU-39 misses. The Ukrainian Defense Forces have suspended the use of GBU-39 until the manufacturer resolves the issue, which is unrelated to GPS signal interference.

·     Anonymous Telegram channels spread false information about an alleged emergency at the Khmelnytskyi Nuclear Power Plant which reportedly resulted in increased radiation levels in the Khmelnytskyi and Rivne regions.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

·     There were 122 combat engagements on various fronts.

·     On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces attacked positions held by the Ukrainian Defense Forces in the central and southeast sectors of Kyslivka, but only managed to advance in the eastern sector. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Berestove, Krokhmalne, Stelmakhivka, Kopanka, Raihorodka, Tverdokhlibove, Novoserhiivka, Novoyehorivka, Hrekivka, and Nevske.

·     On the Lyman direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces regained control over previously lost positions near Kreminna, advanced east of Yampolivka, reclaiming positions along the windbreaks in that area.

·     Positional battles persisted in the areas of Terny, Torske, Zarichne, near the Serebriansk Forest, and near Bilohorivka.

·     On the Bakhmut direction, the Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled attacks by the enemy’s 6th and 123rd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigades of the 2nd Army Corps in the areas of Verkhnyokamianske and Rozdolivka. Russian forces advanced to the eastern bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal south of Chasiv Yar, where underground sections of the canal are located. Enemy special operations forces intensified their activities during the night. Battles persisted near the “Novyi” neighborhood, Ivanivske, Klishchiivka, Andriivka, New York, Shumy, and Pivdenne. The enemy aviation continued to strike the area of the "Kanal" neighborhood.

·     On the Avdiivka direction, the adversary is focused on achieving tactical success near Ocheretyne and Novokalynove. The enemy's penetration into Ukrainian defenses is assessed by the following indicators: 2.7 km along the front and 1.52 km in depth north of Novokalynove, 1.75 km along the front and 1.15 km in depth northwest of Ocheretyne towards Novooleksandrivka. The adversary advanced west of Semenivka and Berdychi.

·     Battles persisted near Arkhanhelske, Sokol, Solovyove, Umanske, and Netaylove. Russian forces near Ocheretyne are located 13 km from the T0504 Pokrovsk-Kostyantynivka highway.

·     On the Novopavlivka direction, Russian forces have advanced up to 450 meters along the front line of up to 1 kilometer on the northeast outskirts of Krasnohorivka. Combat operations were ongoing in the areas of Heorhiivka, Paraskoviivka, and Kostyantynivka. The 39th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 68th Army Corps of the enemy is advancing near Novomykhailivka.

·     On the Berdyansk direction, units of the 5th Separate Tank Brigade of the 36th Army advanced up to 1 km near Staromayorske. The intensity of combat in the area of Velyka Novosilka has increased. Enemy aircraft are striking Ukrainian positions in this area with glide bombs. Positional battles persisted in the areas of Staromayorske, Urozhaine, Pryiutne, and Novodarivka.

·     On the Orikhiv direction, the 71st Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 42nd Motorized Rifle Division of the 58th Army have advanced to the western outskirts of Robotyne. Combat operations were ongoing northwest of Verbove. Enemy aviation operates at low altitudes, exploiting the limited capabilities of the Air Defense Forces of the Ukrainian Defense Forces on this direction.

·     On the Kherson direction, the enemy launched mass shelling of Nestryha Island, attempted to land a landing force there, and recapture lost positions but suffered losses and retreated. Russian forces also unsuccessfully attacked Ukrainian positions near Krynky.

·     In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:

o  Mediterranean Sea: 2 ships, including 1 “Kalibr” sea launched cruise missile carrier. The total salvo is 16 cruise missiles.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

·     The operational deployment of enemy "Sever (North)" Operational Grouping in its operational zone on the territory of the Russian Federation (border areas of Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorod Oblasts of the Russian Federation) continues, with completion expected by May 7-8. The 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, 30th Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 72nd Motorized Rifle Division, and the 197th Separated C2 Battalion of the 44th Army Corps have arrived in Kursk Oblast. The 44th Army Corps comprises up to 3,700 personnel and up to 450 units of military equipment. The " Sever (North)" Operational Grouping has already deployed up to 50,000 personnel.

·     The relocation of the 76th Airborne Division from the operational zone of the "Dnieper" Operational Grouping on the Orikhiv direction either to the "Zapad (West)" Operational Grouping in Luhansk Oblast or to the "South" Operational Grouping on the Kramatorsk direction is ongoing. One airborne battalion is currently in transit.

·     Four Su-30SM fighters and four Su-25 attack aircraft have been moved from Eisk to Privolzhsky, Armavir airbases. Eight Su-25 attack aircraft from Taganrog are now at Budenovsk. Four MiG-31BM fighters from Primorsko-Akhtarsk have been redeployed to Privolzhsky. Two Su-35 fighters from Tikhoretsk are now stationed at Akhtubinsk. Five Su-30SM fighters from Krymsk are relocated to Privolzhsky. Four Su-25 attack aircraft from Millerovo are transferred to Budennovsk. Five Su-30SM fighters and five Su-24M bombers from Saki are now at Eisk. Two Su-35 fighters from Baltimore (Voronezh) are relocated to Lipetsk. After a missile strike by the Ukrainian Defense Forces on Kushchevskaya, up to seven Su-35 fighters from Akhtubinsk are moved. Overall, during the day 43 aircraft of various types were withdrawn from the area targeted by the Ukrainian Defense Forces.

Escalation indicators:

·     The enemy is intensifying its efforts in the vicinity of Ocheretyne and increasing pressure on the flanks of this breach.

Possible operation situation developments:

·     The forces of the 20th and 25th Army are unable to complete the forming operation on the Lyman direction and will not be able to occupy a favorable starting position for the offensive on Lyman and the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration before the beginning of summer.

·     The adversary may attempt to bypass Chasiv Yar without directly assaulting the city, by operating from the south and southeast, while simultaneously forming a northern flank for the Toretsk operation. Russian forces may decide to advance north of the salient near Ocheretyne along the N20 Donetsk-Kostyantynivka highway to put pressure on the Ukrainian Defense Forces defending in the area of Toretsk, and possibly threaten the "Tavriya" OSG operational rear and the areas west of Chasiv Yar.

·     The "Center" Operational Grouping command is focused on executing the following operational plan: to establish conditions for the blockade and encirclement of the Kurakhove area or to create advantageous circumstances for launching an offensive operation to encircle "Tavriya" OSG’s defense in Toretsk area from the south.

·     The enemy's "Vostok" Operational Grouping is gearing up for active operations on the southern flank of the Kurakhove-Vuhledar bulge of the Ukrainian Defense Forces in coordination with the left flank of the "Yug" Operational Grouping, which is currently attempting to break through towards Kurakhove through Hryhorivka and Paraskoviivka-Kostyantynivka along the Vovcha and Sukhi Yaly Rivers.

·     The isolation or complete capture of Kostyantynivka will significantly impair the Defense Forces' ability to maintain the frontline in the southern part of Donetsk Oblast, as it will disrupt the main logistical route along Highway N-20.

·     In the imminent timeframe, the adversary will attempt to reach the Stara Mykolaivka-Sukha Balka line.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 05.01.24  

Personnel - almost 469,840 (+1120); 

Tanks 7,312 (+5); 

Armored combat vehicles – 14,067 (+21); 

Artillery systems – 12,024 (+13);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,053 (0);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 780 (+1);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 16,175 (+33);

Aircraft - 348 (0);

Helicopters – 325 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 9,538 (+7);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,126 (0);

Boats/ships – 27 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

·     According to information provided by the Situation Center of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Russian forces shelled 10 regions of Ukraine over the past day. A total of 121 towns and villages and 138 infrastructure objects were attacked with various types of weapons. The number of casualties is being updated/clarified.

·     Four people were injured as a result of Russian artillery shelling and a kamikaze drone strike on Nikopol in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast that occurred on the evening of April 30.

·     During the night of May 1st, Russian occupying forces launched three Iskander-M ballistic missiles targeting densely populated areas of the city of Odesa. Three people were killed, and three others were injured in the attack.

·     At 10:00 on May 1, Russian forces carried out airstrikes using guided aerial bombs targeting a car and a private residence in the village of Zolochiv, Bogodukhiv district, Kharkiv Oblast. The attack resulted in two fatalities and nine injuries. Around 16:10, the Russian army also shelled the village of Lyptsi. A 78-year-old woman sustained shrapnel wounds and later died.

·     On the morning of May 1st, Russian military forces launched an attack on the village of Kalynove in Donetsk Oblast, resulting in the death of one individual and injuring two others. In the afternoon, Russian forces struck the city of Hirnyk in Donetsk Oblast with "Uragan" missile systems. A man and a woman were killed, while six others sustained injuries.

·     One girl and two boys have been successfully brought back from the temporarily occupied territory of Kherson Oblast to the area under Ukrainian control. The 11-year-old girl was deprived of parental care and was at risk of ending up in an occupied orphanage. Accompanying her were two boys, aged 9 and 13. They were being cared for by their older adult brother on the occupied territory, who was at risk of being conscripted into the Russian army.

·     Ukrainian court sentenced a serviceman from the 94th Operational Deployment Regiment of the Russian National Guard to 12 years in prison for raping a female resident of the occupied Kherson Oblast.

·     Ivan Fedorov, the head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Administration, announced plans to construct five underground schools in Zaporizhzhia city and the surrounding district. The objective is to offer the option for all interested children to resume in-person learning. Ultimately, the plan includes the establishment of 10 underground schools.

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