What is 'Taiwan independence' and is Taiwan already independent? - Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee (Reuters)

What is 'Taiwan independence' and is Taiwan already independent?

By Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee

Reuters, October 29, 20242:49 AM GMT-3Updated 2 hours ago

TAIPEI, Oct 29 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping asked U.S. President Joe Biden last year to toughen the language the United States uses when discussing its position on Taiwanese independence, according to two U.S. officials familiar with the private conversation.

Below are some questions and answers about what is meant by the term "Taiwan independence":

WHAT IS TAIWAN'S HISTORY AND FORMAL NAME TODAY?

Formerly known as Formosa, the island has been home to indigenous people for thousands of years, before the Dutch and Spanish briefly ruled parts of it in the 1600s.

The Qing dynasty incorporated Taiwan as part of Fujian province in 1684 and only declared it a separate Chinese province in 1885.

Following the Qing's defeat in a war with Japan, it became a Japanese colony in 1895. In 1945, it was handed over to the Republic of China government at the end of World War Two.

In 1949 after being defeated by Mao Zedong's communist forces, the defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan, and Republic of China remains the island's formal name. Mao set up the People's Republic of China, and claimed it was the only legitimate Chinese government for the whole country, including Taiwan, as the successor state to the Republic of China.

WHAT IS TAIWAN'S INTERNATIONAL STATUS?

For decades, the Republic of China in Taipei also claimed to be the legitimate Chinese government, but in 1971 it was expelled from the United Nations in favour of the Beijing government. Currently only 12 countries maintain formal ties with Taipei, mostly small and poorer developing nations such as Belize and Tuvalu.

Most major Western countries and U.S. allies maintain close unofficial ties with Taiwan by recognising the Republic of China passport and having de facto embassies in each other's capitals.

The United States severed official ties with Taipei in 1979 but is bound by law to provide the island with the means to defend itself. The United States officially takes no position on Taiwan's sovereignty under Washington's "One China" policy.

China says it will not renounce the use of force to bring Taiwan under its control. Beijing has offered Taiwan a "one country, two systems" model similar to Hong Kong, though no major political party in Taiwan supports that.

IS TAIWAN ALREADY AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?

Taiwan, whose people elect their own leaders and whose government controls a defined area of territory with its own military and passport, enjoys de facto independence even if that is not formally recognised by most countries.

Taiwan's government says the Republic of China is a sovereign state and that Beijing has no right to speak for or represent it given the People's Republic of China has no say in how it chooses its leaders and has never ruled Taiwan.

COULD TAIPEI DECLARE A "REPUBLIC OF TAIWAN"?

It would be very difficult and require first parliament approves a constitutional amendment and then a referendum, rather than a simple declaration by President Lai Ching-te.

At least 75% of lawmakers would need to pass that amendment, and the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) and main opposition party the Kuomintang (KMT) currently have an equal number of seats.

The DPP, which has been in power since 2016, has not made an attempt to change the constitution. The KMT strongly opposes any attempts to change the name of Republic of China.

WHAT DOES TAIWAN'S PRESIDENT SAY ABOUT INDEPENDENCE?

China strongly detests Lai and calls him a "separatist". Before Lai was elected president he made comments about being a "practical worker for Taiwan independence". Lai maintains he simply meant Taiwan is already an independent country.

Since taking office Lai has said on several occasions that the Republic of China and People's Republic of China are "not subordinate to each other", which Beijing says means he believes the two are separate countries and so he is therefore pushing an independence narrative.

Lai says he is simply stating a fact and that in any case the Republic of China, founded after the overthrow of the last imperial dynasty in 1911, is an older state than the People's Republic of China which was only established in 1949.

DOES CHINA HAVE A LEGAL FRAMEWORK TO PREVENT FORMAL INDEPENDENCE?

In 2005, China's largely rubber-stamp parliament passed the Anti-Secession Law that gives the country the legal basis for military action against Taiwan if it secedes or seems about to, but the law is vague and does not give details.

There has been speculation in Taipei that China might use next year's 20th anniversary of the law to offer greater clarity. China has not confirmed that.

In 2022, Chinese state media raised the possibility of a "reunification law" to give Beijing a further legal framework to bring Taiwan under its control but there has been no further movement towards that to date.

(This story has been refiled to correct the spelling of 'China' in paragraph 16)

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Reporting by Ben Blanchard and Yimou Lee; Editing by Lincoln Feast

Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Yimou Lee is a Senior Correspondent for Reuters covering everything from Taiwan, including sensitive Taiwan-China relations, China's military aggression and Taiwan's key role as a global semiconductor powerhouse. A three-time SOPA award winner, his reporting from Hong Kong, China, Myanmar and Taiwan over the past decade includes Myanmar's crackdown on Rohingya Muslims, Hong Kong protests and Taiwan's battle against China's multifront campaigns to absorb the island.

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Zelenskiy’s 'victory plan' to EU, NATO - Andrew Gray

Ukraine's Zelenskiy to pitch 'victory plan' to EU, NATO By Andrew Gray Reuters, October 16, 202411:42 PM Summary Ukrainian leader takes blueprint to Brussels Plan includes call for NATO invitation Kyiv's key allies have not endorsed plan so far Moscow says Ukraine needs to 'sober up' BRUSSELS, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy takes his "victory plan" to the European Union and NATO on Thursday, pitching for a NATO membership invitation and a major increase in military support for Kyiv's campaign against Russia's invasion. Zelenskiy's plan contains requests that Ukraine's allies have so far declined to grant, such as a call for an invitation to join the U.S.-led NATO military alliance and permission to use Western weapons to strike deep inside Russia. Zelenskiy presented the plan to Ukraine's parliament on Wednesday at a critical time, as Moscow's forces advance in the east, a bleak winter of power cuts looms and a U.S. presidential election casts uncertainty over the future of Western support. On Thursday, he brings the plan, which he said could end the war "no later than next year", to a summit of European Union leaders and a meeting of NATO defence ministers, both in Brussels. He has already presented the five-point blueprint, which Zelenskiy said has three secret annexes, to key Western leaders such as U.S. President Joe Biden. While voicing strong support for Kyiv, none has given the plan a full-throated endorsement. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said on Wednesday the plan represented "a strong signal" from Zelenskiy but added: "That doesn't mean that I here can say I support the whole plan. That would be a bit difficult, because there are many issues." Rutte said NATO's 32 members would have to discuss the plan in detail to understand it better. "You will have maybe some different views on particular aspects of the plan, but that doesn't say that we are not standing squarely behind Ukraine," he said. NATO MEMBERSHIP CALL NATO has declared that Ukraine will become a member, without saying when. But it cannot join while at war, as this would draw the alliance directly into a conflict with Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin has cited Ukraine's potential membership of NATO as a reason for the invasion. Zelenskiy argued NATO could issue an invitation now, even if membership itself comes further down the line. "We understand that NATO membership is a matter for the future, not the present," he told the Ukrainian parliament. "But Putin must see that his geopolitical calculations are failing. The Russian people must feel this, that their 'tsar' has lost geopolitically to the world." The Kremlin said it was too early to comment in detail on the plan, but that Kyiv needed to "sober up" and realise the futility of the policies it was pursuing. Zelenskiy said his plan also proposes establishing a "comprehensive non-nuclear strategic deterrence package" inside Ukraine to protect against threats from Russia and to destroy its military power. He did not elaborate. The plan also offers the West a role in developing Ukraine's natural mineral resources and proposes Ukrainian troops could replace some U.S. forces in Europe. The Reuters Daily Briefing newsletter provides all the news you need to start your day. Sign up here. Reporting by Andrew Gray, Sabine Siebold and Lili Bayer; Writing by Andrew Gray; Editing by Bill Berkrot. Andrew Gray is Reuters' European Affairs Editor. Based in Brussels, he covers NATO and the European Union and leads a pan-European team of reporters focused on diplomacy, defence and security. A journalist for almost 30 years, he has previously been based in the UK, Germany, Geneva, the Balkans, West Africa and Washington, where he reported on the Pentagon. He covered the Iraq war in 2003 and contributed a chapter to a Reuters book on the conflict. He has also worked at Politico Europe as a senior editor and podcast host, served as the main editor for a fellowship programme for journalists from the Balkans, and contributed to the BBC's From Our Own Correspondent radio show.

Putin prossegue sua política de crimes de guerra e de destruição sistemática da Ucrânia e seu povo - Reuters

A missão de Putin, depois de derrotado em sua intenção de ocupar e conquistar toda a Ucrânia: é um só, destruir o país e eliminar o máximo possível de ucranianos. (PRA)

Russia hits Ukraine with missiles, drones as 'dear friend' Xi departs

By Dan Peleschuk

Reuters, March 22, 2023

• Xi departs after show of solidarity with Putin
• Zaporizhzhia apartment block struck
• At least eight killed in dormitories south of Kyiv

KYIV/ZAPORIZHZHIA, Ukraine, March 22 (Reuters) - Russia blasted an apartment block in Ukraine with missiles on Wednesday and swarmed cities with drone attacks overnight, in a display of force as President Vladimir Putin bid farewell to his visiting "dear friend" and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Firefighters battled a blaze in two adjacent residential buildings in the southern city of Zaporizhzhia, where officials said at least one person was killed and 33 wounded by a twin missile strike.

In Rzhyshchiv, a riverside town south of Kyiv, at least eight people were killed and seven injured after a drone struck two dormitories and a college, regional police chief Andrii Nebytov said.

"This must not become 'just another day' in Ukraine or anywhere else in the world. The world needs greater unity and determination to defeat Russian terror faster and protect lives," President Volodymyr Zelenskiy tweeted, with security camera video showing one building exploding.

A playground and a car park at the scene in Zaporizhzhia were littered with glass, debris and wrecked cars. Emergency workers carried out the wounded or escorted those who could walk.

An elderly woman with scratches on her face sat alone on a bench, wiping tears and whispering prayers.

"When I got out, there was destruction, smoke, people screaming, debris. Then the firefighters and rescuers came," said Ivan Nalyvaiko, 24.

During the night, sirens blared across the capital and parts of northern Ukraine, and the military said it had shot down 16 of 21 Iranian-made Shahed suicide drones.

Zelenskiy visited troops near the front line. His office released video of him handing out medals to soldiers, which it said was filmed near Bakhmut, the eastern city where Ukrainian forces are mounting a defence in what has become Europe's deadliest infantry battle since World War Two.

"It is painful to see the cities of Donbas ... to which Russia has brought terrible suffering and ruin," Zelenskiy said in a nightly video address, referring to the larger eastern region around Bakhmut that Russia claims as its territory.

He cited nearly constant sounds of air raid sirens in the city of Kramatorsk and threats of shelling.

International groups estimate rebuilding Ukraine will cost $411 billion - 2.6 times Ukraine's 2022 gross domestic product.

CHINA-RUSSIA UNITY

Hosting Xi in Moscow this week was Putin's grandest diplomatic gesture since he ordered the invasion of neighbour Ukraine 13 months ago and became a pariah in the West. The two men referred to each other as "dear friend", promised economic cooperation, condemned the West and described relations as the best they have ever been.

Xi departed telling Putin: "Now there are changes that haven't happened in 100 years. When we are together, we drive these changes."

"I agree," Putin said.

But the public remarks were notably short of specifics, and during the visit Xi had almost nothing to say about the Ukraine war, beyond that China's position was "impartial".

The White House urged Beijing to pressure Russia to withdraw. Washington also criticised the timing of the trip, just days after the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin on war crimes charges.

China has proposed a peace plan for Ukraine that the West largely dismisses as vague at best, and at worst a ploy to buy time for Putin to regroup his forces.

Ukraine says there can be no peace unless Russia withdraws from occupied land. Moscow says Kyiv must recognise territorial "realities" after its claim to have annexed nearly a fifth of Ukraine.

RUSSIAN WEAKENING?

Russia's only notable gains have been around Bakhmut, but Kyiv has decided in recent weeks not to withdraw there, saying its defenders were inflicting enough losses on the Russian attackers to justify holding out.

In an intelligence update, Britain's ministry of defence said that while there was still a risk the Ukrainian garrison in Bakhmut could be surrounded, Russia's assault on the city could be running out of steam. Ukraine's military General Staff agreed, saying Russia's offensive potential in Bakhmut was declining.

A Ukrainian counterattack in recent days west of Bakhmut was likely to relieve pressure on Ukraine's supply route, the British ministry said.

Reporting by Reuters bureaux; Writing by Peter Graff, Frank Jack Daniel and Cynthia Osterman; Editing by Philippa Fletcher, Andrew Cawthorne and Grant McCool

Rússia dá ultimato para Ucrânia acabar com a guerra - Pavel Polityuk, Oleksandr Kozhukhar (Reuters)

Rússia dá ultimato para Ucrânia acabar com a guerra

O ministro das Relações Exteriores da Rússia, Sergei Lavrov, disse que Ucrânia deveria aceitar as exigências russas para acabar com o conflito

Por Pavel Polityuk e Oleksandr Kozhukhar

Reuters, 27/12/2022

O ministro das Relações Exteriores da Rússia acusou a Ucrânia e os países do Ocidente de tentar destruir seu país e disse que Kiev tem que aceitar as exigências de Moscou para acabar com a guerra ou então assistir às forças armadas russas dominarem o campo de batalha.

Os comentários de Sergei Lavrov, feitos na noite de segunda-feira (26) em meio a intensos combates no leste da Ucrânia, vieram um dia depois que o presidente russo, Vladimir Putin, disse que estava aberto a negociações, mas apenas nos termos de Moscou.

Isso inclui a Ucrânia reconhecer a conquista de um quinto de seu território pela Rússia. Kiev, armada e apoiada pelos Estados Unidos e seus aliados da Otan, diz que recuperará todo o território ocupado e expulsará todos os soldados russos do país.

“Nossas propostas para a desmilitarização e desnazificação dos territórios controlados pelo regime, eliminação das ameaças à segurança da Rússia que emanam de lá, incluindo nossas novas terras, são bem conhecidas do inimigo”, disse Lavrov à agência de notícias estatal Tass.

“O ponto é simples: cumpra-as para o seu próprio bem. Caso contrário, a questão será decidida pelo exército russo.”

Putin lançou sua invasão da Ucrânia em 24 de fevereiro, chamando-a de “operação especial” para “desnazificar” e desmilitarizar a Ucrânia, que ele classificou como um peão do Ocidente que ameaçava a Rússia.

Kiev e o Ocidente dizem que a invasão de Putin equivale a uma apropriação imperialista de terras. Os Estados Unidos e seus aliados impuseram sanções abrangentes à Rússia pela invasão e enviaram bilhões de dólares em assistência ao governo ucraniano.

Na semana passada, quando o presidente ucraniano Volodymyr Zelensky visitava Washington, os Estados Unidos anunciaram mais US$ 1,85 bilhão em assistência militar para a Ucrânia, incluindo a transferência do Sistema de Defesa Aérea Patriot, irritando Moscou.

“Não é segredo para ninguém que o objetivo estratégico dos Estados Unidos e seus aliados da Otan é derrotar a Rússia no campo de batalha como um mecanismo para enfraquecer significativamente ou mesmo destruir nosso país”, disse Lavrov à Tass.

Embora Moscou tenha planejado uma operação rápida para dominar sua vizinha, a guerra está agora em seu 11º mês, marcada por muitos reveses embaraçosos da Rússia no campo de batalha.

No mais recente ataque para expor falhas nas defesas aéreas russas, um drone que se acredita ser ucraniano penetrou centenas de quilômetros no espaço aéreo russo na segunda-feira, causando uma explosão mortal na base principal de seus bombardeiros estratégicos.

Os combates mais intensos atualmente ocorrem nas províncias orientais de Donetsk e Luhansk, que juntas formam a região industrial de Donbass. A Rússia afirmou em setembro tê-las anexado, junto com as províncias de Kherson e Zaporizhzhia, no sul, mas não controla totalmente nenhuma delas.

Em sua mensagem de vídeo noturna na segunda-feira, Zelensky chamou a situação na linha de frente em Donbass de “difícil e dolorosa”.

https://www.cnnbrasil.com.br/internacional/russia-da-ultimato-para-ucrania-acabar-com-a-guerra/

A politica fiscal de Lula III acabou antes de nascer? - Lisandra Paraguassu (Reuters)

 Looks likely…

Lula's honeymoon with Brazil markets ends amidspending plan fears

By Lisandra Paraguassu

and Gabriel Stargardter

Reuters, November 10, 20228:23 PM GMT-3Last Updated 11 hours ago. 

BRASILIA, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Brazilian President-electLuiz Inacio Lula da Silva's brief honeymoon withfinancial markets looked finished on Thursday, as hepushed for more room to grow social spending withoutsetting long-term fiscal rules or naming his top economicpolicymakers.

 

Brazil's currency and benchmark Bovespa stock index (.BVSP), which rose last week as fears of politicalvolatility subsided after Lula's election victory, plungedaround 4% on Thursday on comments by Lula and detailsof his transition team.

The rout made clear that many investors were donewaiting for more clarity over Lula's key ministerial appointments or details of how he aims to stabilize Brazil'spublic finances.

In a speech to lawmakers, Lula said he aims to prioritizesocial spending over market concerns, questioning thepriority given to key parts of Brazil's economic policyframework.

 

Investors have called for Lula to restore firm rules for public finances after major outlays by current PresidentJair Bolsonaro through the pandemic and election season. Instead, the president-elect is pushing to dismantle oldbudget rules before settling on the alternatives proposedby his advisers.

 

Lula acknowledged market reaction in comments toreporters later on Thursday, but sought to downplayinvestors' concerns.

 

Markets deepened losses after the announcement of four economists aligned with the leftist Workers Party tohandle budgetary issues as part of Lula's transition team, including former Finance Minister Guido Mantega. (vide artigo seguinte)

 

After markets closed, a key lawmaker who had met withthe transition team confirmed some investors' fears thatLula wanted recurring exemptions from a constitutionalspending cap.

 

Senator Marcelo Castro, the point man for the 2023 budget, said Lula backed a permanent spending cap waiver for the "Bolsa Familia" welfare program, which isslated to cost 175 billion reais ($33 billion) annually basedon his campaign promises.

 

The negative reaction to Lula's comments and transitionteam is the latest example of investors delivering animmediate, bruising response to nascent governments' economic proposals, amid a challenging global backdropof high inflation, weak growth and low risk appetite.

QUESTIONING PRIORITIES

In his speech to lawmakers, Lula insisted he wouldmaintain fiscal discipline. But he also questioned thepriority given to parts of Brazil's economic framework, including the spending cap that has been waivedrepeatedly under Bolsonaro.

 

"Why do people talk about the spending ceiling, but notsocial issues?" he asked. "Why do we have an inflationtarget, but not a growth target?"

 

Investors, calling for Cabinet picks or clear fiscal rules toshow how Lula intends to conduct policy, were notimpressed.

 

"In the past few days, the president-elect's focus has beenon signaling a major expansion in social spending, withouta counterbalancing point about fiscal responsibility, whichstrikes a different tone than expected," said Arthur Carvalho, chief economist at TRUXT Investimentos in Rio de Janeiro.

Lula has not yet designated his finance minister and saidhe would consider his Cabinet picks after returning fromthe United Nations climate summit in Egypt next week.

 

His advisers are already discussing with lawmakers how toopen room for more spending outside the spending cap in order to deliver on campaign promises, including a possible constitutional amendment.

 

"The signals indicate that the spirit of the (proposedamendment) is very oriented around new public spending. For now, there seems to be no plan for where thoseresources come from and what will be the long-termadjustments," Dan Kawa, TAG Investimentos' chiefinvestment officer, wrote in a client note. "The signals are terrible."

 

 

2 minute readOctober 7, 20226:14 PM GMT-3Last Updated a month ago

Brazil's Lula eyes flexible primary surplus target toreplace spending cap

By Lisandra Paraguassu

SAO PAULO, Oct 7 (Reuters) - Economic advisers toBrazilian presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva are looking at two main ideas to replace a constitutionalspending cap, including a flexible primary surplus target, two senior aides told Reuters on Friday.

 

Lula has resisted pressure to lay out what fiscal rules hisgovernment would follow if he is elected in an Oct. 30 runoff vote against President Jair Bolsonaro.

 

But he has stressed he will not maintain the spending cap, which only allows spending by the federal government togrow as much as the previous year's inflation. Bolsonaro has also said he is looking at changes to that fiscal anchor.

Lula and advisers in his Workers Party (PT) are lookingfor ways to raise public spending to jumpstart economicgrowth, though Lula will only take his decision after theelection, two party sources said on condition ofanonymity.

 

One of the proposals involves the establishment of a primary budget surplus target with bands so thegovernment can spend more in the event of an economicdownturn. Currently, the primary budget target is fixed, which, according to the sources, prevents the governmentfrom adopting counter-cyclical actions.

"If (the economy) slows down, you don't have the meansfor the government to act," said one of the sources.

According to the sources, this proposal is Lula's preferredoption. In public statements, he often repeats that Brazilposted budget surpluses every year of his 2003-2010 presidency but admits that the design of a new rule can beimproved.

 

The sources said that a second proposal would limitspending growth to inflation plus some other unspecifiedindicator to allow a real increase in federal investment.