A 3a GM comecará na Belarus, ou seja, na Polônia outra vez? - Osborn Baya (Medium)

 

Poland Is Going To War Against Russia

Osborn Baya

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4 min read·3 days ago

Has Poland Triggered The World War III Bomb?

Photo by Daniel on Unsplash

Has Poland started what the world has not wished for a lifetime? Has it started WWIII?

The past few days have been busy for the International Community with the attempted coup on Russian President Vladimir Putin by the war mafia and Leader of the Private Military Group, Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin. The leader was allegedly in conflict with the Defence Minister of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu, over the misappropriation of funds and strategic failures. Putin referred to this attempted coup as a “betrayal of their own country”. He termed them as insurgents. His speech sealed their fight, and I analysed it here: Putin’s Stance on the Fate of Wagner PMC

These events led to a deal being struck between Putin and Prighozin, with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko acting as the mediator. The deal meant that Prighozhin was to cease his advancements towards the Kremlin, which he was a mile away from. It was also deemed necessary for the war mafia to relocate to Belarus to ascertain his security as all criminal charges were dropped against him. I also wonder why, if you ask me. Criminal charges for an act of this scope translate to treason in the Russian Republic.

The relocation of Prighozin, popularly known as “Putin’s personal chef”, meant that the bases of his Wagner PMC mercenaries were going to be in Belarus. They still have the blessing of the Kremlin to continue their military activities and expeditions in Africa and the Middle East. I will soon write a story on this issue. Does this move scare anyone around? Yes, it does. This move has had three countries scrambling to advance their strategic military positions in fear of these mercenaries.

These countries are Poland, Latvia, and Lithuania. Poland's President Andrzej Duda was quoted as saying:

We see what is happening, the relocation of Russian forces in the form of the Wagner Group to Belarus, and the head of the Wagner Group going there, those are all very negative signals for us which we want to raise strongly with our allies

With the military and political instability happening in the region, the three countries seemed to have urged getting ready for any advancements from the most dangerous Private Military Group Wagner, which seems to be a few miles away from their borders. Latvian Foreign Minister Edgars Rinkevics was quoted saying this in Paris. He specifically said this:

This move needs to be assessed from a different security point of view. We have seen the capabilities of those mercenaries

Their Lithuanian counterparts, through Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, said that the mercenaries are just one day away from their capital city. This is what he had to say:

Our countries’ borders are just hundreds of kilometres from that activity so it could take them 8–10 hours to suddenly appear somewhere in Belarus close to Lithuania

It is creating a more volatile, unpredictable environment for our region.

We need to take the defense of the Baltic region very seriously

With this confusion, the World War III that people have seemingly thought was far from happening is now near enough.

Map of Belarus and its territorial neighbours.

These Baltic countries are members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, commonly known as NATO. This therefore means that any military advancements in the region would trigger a response from the Alliance, which has membership in the USA, UK, and France, among other European Union countries. They would also trigger a response from the Russian side, which has a close relationship with Belarus. This would also push the involvement of China, which has been taking a military strategic position in African countries, and other countries aligned with the Communist Republic.

These events therefore spark a sense of a war that would crumble the world and bring about disorder. A war against NATO countries and former Warsaw Pact members could see the use of nuclear weapons, which would destabilise the world. I really wish the events in that region don’t escalate in that direction. If you can clearly remember, the Second World War began there, which saw Adolf Hitler invade Poland. I sincerely hope that the Baltic countries remain calm and quell the situation quickly.

What do you think about these events? Do you think that we could witness a Third World War soon enough?

If you have any comments about my views, please comment them down below or email me directly at bayaosborn78@gmail.com. If you have any suggestions, a story you would like me to analyse, or things I need to improve on, please do the same.

To stay informed on international politics, follow me on Twitter and Medium for insightful perspectives and expert commentary. I offer valuable insights into the complex dynamics of the international stage. You can find me at @bayaosborn, where I share a wealth of information and engage in informed discussions on the ever-evolving world of politics.

Poland

Putin

Ukraine

Ukraine War

Russia

Crônica de uma Catástrofe Anunciada: russos preparam a implosão da central nuclear de Zaporozhye - Nadin Brzezinski (Medium)

 Will the Russians Blow up the Zaporizhia NPP?

Nadin Brzezinski

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5 min read·21 hours ago

Russia has a pattern. It’s an old pattern. It’s one involving the destruction that they can’t have. They have taken pavement from roads on their way out, for example. They have destroyed cities to capture them. The jokes around washers and toilets are long in the tooth at this point. Now they control the sixth largest nuclear plant in Europe, and there is noise they are leaving.

There is also noise. They intend to do great damage on the way out. One of those signals is, as always, accusing the other of what they intend to do. The screen cap below is from TASS, hardly alone. They have also distributed a letter in the United Nations a priori denying responsibility.

The old tool of propaganda is accusing others. Germans perfected this during the Second World War, but Russians were also experts. This is strategic disinformation.

But there is more:

Against the background of the information transmitted the other day by GUR, which showed that the Russians would intend to cause an accident at the Zaporozhye power plant, the same Ukrainian intelligence service today publishes an information on the Telegram channel, according to which 
“ According to the latest data, the occupation contingent is leaving gradually the territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant”.

The intelligence agency said among the first to leave the station were three Rosatom employees, who managed the Russians’ actions. Ukrainian employees who signed a contract with Rosatom were also advised to evacuate.

According to the instructions received, they should leave by July 5th.

Also, the number of military patrols is gradually decreasing on the actual territory of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant and in the plant’s satellite city — Energodar. 
Staff remaining at the station were instructed to “blame Ukraine in case of any emergencies”.

On June 25, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirilo Budanov — “The Man Who Never Smiles” — , said that the Russians had completed preparations for a possible terrorist attack on the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant.

Explosive devices were placed near four of the Plant’s six units. IAEA Director General Raphael Grossi had previously stated that the undermining of the Kahovka Dam threatens the operation of the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant. According to him, there is a risk of running out of the necessary level of water to cool the reactors in a few weeks. On June 15, he said the situation in Zaporozhye was “serious” but he was trying to “stabilize” it.

Energoatom reported that despite the Russians blowing up the Kahovka Dam, the situation at the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant remains under control and there is enough water in the cooling pool to meet the plant’s needs.

From my point of view, any act of sabotage — blowing up, simulating overvoltage, or any other similar act, is still unlikely to ‘0’ considering the catastrophic consequences, both for Europe and, to the same extent, for Russia. Also, a significant part of N-E Turkey would be affected.

The main danger, but which is currently under control, is the provision of the water needed to cool the 6 nuclear reactors.

Now these are not pile reactors. They do run hotter than Western reactors. So perhaps we will have less of an issue than Chornobyl. There is some technical data as to why it will not be that bad. Also, the types of man-made accidents we might expect. I found this Twitter thread useful. However, western reactors did suffer explosions a decade ago.

Now Ukrainians have been screaming to the four winds, to anybody who will listen, that Russia will do this. As of this morning, they shared this as well:

Russia has a plan to remotely detonate the ZNPP when the aggressor’s troops hand over control of the nuclear plant to the IAEA and Ukraine, — Zelensky

To me, the signal that they intend to do it is not the withdrawal of military personnel. Sure, that would be good. The withdrawal of technical personnel needed to deal with an accident is. For somebody screaming the other side is going to do it, why take away the technicians needed to control such a provocation? At least now we know Russians value some lives, maybe.

Yes, at this point, I am way cynical.

Now there are going to be consequences. Perhaps Russia is indeed looking forwards to, for real, losing the war to NATO because losing to Ukraine is short-circuiting their imperial brain. Crests (using the less objectionable insult) are not supposed to be able to fight Russia and defeat Russia. Now, losing to NATO is far more acceptable.

This is why they captured a U.S. General; they did not. Why did they claim there were two NATO generals and troops at Kramatorsk. No, there were not why they hit a command post in Lviv where ten allied generals died; no, that never happened.

But to the Russian people, this is great propaganda. See, we are fighting the collective West! We even have audio on Telegram of the International Legion, who, of course, speak a panoply of languages, including, shockingly, I know, English and Polish, two favorites for the propagandist. They even showed off a few British citizens captured at Mariupol who served with the regular Ukrainian Marines. They were not even in the Legion. Russians intended to try them and execute them as a show trial. In the end, they were exchanged.

We have been at the most dangerous point of this war for at least two weeks. The drama inside Russia is also raising the stakes. This is why. This is one of a few reports from Ukrainian successes at the front:

Counterattack | The 47th OMBr “Magura” breaks through the defense of the Russians in the south

47 OMBr “Magura” breaks through the defense of the Russians in the south. This video concentrates the events of two days of assault. Two companies of Russians fled from their positions.

https://youtu.be/bk5OG6JYmfI

https://t.me/censor_net/32470

Ukrainians are starting to push through defense lines. The video is not that gory, but one section shows the dense minefields, removed by sappers, to the side. They are going slowly, purposefully, and methodically. This saves lives in the end.

So returning to the plant. I concluded a while ago that they would damage that plant on the way out. How serious is a damn good question? My mind firmed this when they blew the Kharkhova dam. This is based on how the Russian mind works. Yes, I will say it right now. I prefer to eat a large crow pie with them fixings on the side. If I am wrong, please tell me this.

We will likely add to the rapidly growing collection of war crimes. This will be in the category of crime against humanity worst case. Let’s hope it’s the best case—either a small incident or none at all.

I indeed look forward to a full pie, not just a slice. Let’s hope I get that.

Diploweb: dossiê Estado Islâmico

DIPLOWEB Dossier. L'Etat islamique

Lettre des Ambassadeurs du Diploweb n°420 - 3 juillet  2023 Au titre d'Ambassadeur du Diploweb, faites connaître à vos amis l'adresse pour s'abonner gratis à notre Lettre d'information des Ambassadeurs du Diploweb. Merci !

Avez-vous remarqué ? L’État islamique alias Daech nous a obsédé pendant plusieurs années... puis il a disparu des radars... L'EI est-il vraiment défait ? Et comment caractériser cette organisation terroriste qui se voulait un proto-Etat ? Comment en parler, voire l'enseigner ? Parce qu'il importe de ne pas laisser le temps brouiller les repères, le Diploweb consacre le premier de ses dossiers d'été à l'Etat islamique. Vous allez disposer de documents de référence de plusieurs types pour alimenter votre connaissance. Je vous encourage vivement à les partager avec vos amis, vos connaissances institutionelles et académiques. Bonne lecture Dr Pierre Verluise, Directeur du Diploweb.com

L’État islamique est-il défait ?

Le Califat : une entreprise totalitaire Patrice GOURDIN | Docteur en histoire, professeur agrégé de l’Université. Membre du conseil scientifique du Diploweb   Existe-il des points communs entre le fascisme, le nazisme, le communisme et le Califat ? Patrice Gourdin met en œuvre une démonstration argumentée pour répondre à la question : est-il approprié de parler d’« islamo-fascisme » au sujet du Califat ? Un texte de référence qui utile au débat public.

Le Califat : une entreprise totalitaire

Daesh en 3 cartes   Maxime Zoffolli  | Graphiste indépendant    Maxime Zoffoli nous permet de garder en mémoire l'emprise territoriale de l'EI. Voici trois cartes qui présentent les zones d’action de Daesh en 2015, la répartition religieuse en Syrie comme en Irak et les ressources en hydrocarbures.

Daesh en 3 cartes

Masterclass  Quels sont les fondamentaux de la puissance ? P. Verluise    Pierre VERLUISE | Docteur en géopolitique. Fondateur du Diploweb   Concours ENS Géographie, la puissance est au programme du concours 2024, via l'étude de l'UE. Cette Masterclass est une belle introduction sur les fondamentaux.  Le monde change, tous les jours, peut-être plus vite que jamais, mais la puissance reste. La puissance reste, mais elle change elle aussi, tous les jours, dans ses modalités. Pourtant, il y a des fondamentaux. Lesquels ? C’est ce que vous allez découvrir et comprendre. Ainsi, vous marquerez des points., notamment pour la question de Géographie ENS 2023-2024. Des points décisifs à un moment clé. Découvrez ci-dessous le programme, des extraits des évaluations, et qui est votre formateur. Alors que l’UE doit se réinventer sous la pression de la guerre russe en Ukraine, ce sujet est majeur.

Quels sont les fondamentaux de la puissance ?

Terrorisme et crime organisé. Les hybrides : nouvelle perception stratégique. Entretien avec J-F Gayraud   Jean-François GAYRAUD | Haut fonctionnaire de la police nationale    Cet entretien avec J-F Gayraud permet de prendre la mesure d’une des grandes nouveautés du monde post-Guerre froide : l’hybridation du terrorisme et du crime organisé. Un propos très riche et précis, très accessible. 4 minutes.

Qui sont les hybrides ?

Quels futurs pour le terrorisme ?  E. Danon, H. Micheron  ?   Eric DANON   | Ambassadeur de France. Hugo MICHERON | Doctorant   C'est l'été. Vous avez le temps de profiter d'une remarquable conférence Diploweben Sorbonne. Dans la première partie de cette conférence, les deux orateurs ont analysé les forces à l’œuvre dans le terrorisme contemporain.  La deuxième partie de la conférence a été consacrée aux formes que pourraient prendre les terrorismes du futur – non pas via des modalités techniques mais en tâchant de repérer les tensions de toute nature susceptibles de générer de nouveaux actes de terrorisme à l’avenir. Vous y trouverez des propos étonnament visionnaires.

Quels futurs pour le terrorisme ?