O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

quarta-feira, 16 de maio de 2018

Brasil na imprensa internacional: corrupcao em destaque

Triste constatar que o Brasil aparece na imprensa internacional apenas pelos inúmeros casos de corrupção política:

Financial Times, May 15, 2018
Sérgio Moro dismisses suggestions corruption inquiry could clear way for authoritarians
Joe Leahy and Andres Schipani

Democracy in Brazil is safe despite a sweeping corruption investigation that has devastated the major political parties in Latin America’s largest country, the judge leading the probe said. 

Federal judge Sérgio Moro, who is heading the “Car Wash” probe that last month jailed the country’s most popular politician, former leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, dismissed suggestions it has created a political vacuum that could bring authoritarians to power in elections in October. 

“Someone authoritarian taking power, or someone with authoritarian intentions who is not barred by our institutions, I don’t see that happening in Brazil,” Judge Moro told the Financial Times in an interview at his court in the southern city of Curitiba. 

Car Wash, which has probed bribery at state-owned oil company Petrobras, has been widely praised for ending impunity for the rich and powerful in Brazil. But the collateral damage from the investigation has been to discredit the established centrist political classes who have led Brazil for the past 30 years and to boost the chances of victory in elections in October of far-right politician, Jair Bolsonaro, analysts say. 

A former army captain and admirer of Brazil’s brutal former military dictatorship, Mr Bolsonaro advocates cracking down on crime by arming the population and wants to restore “family values”. His opponents criticise him for making disparaging statements about women, gays and black minority communities. 

Mr Lula da Silva, who is popular among the poor for his social welfare programmes during his eight years in power ending in 2010, has double the voter intentions of Mr Bolsonaro with 31 per cent in a Datafolha poll in April. But his jailing has left Mr Bolsonaro in the lead in polls, with environmentalist Marina Silva close behind.

But Judge Moro said fears that Car Wash was endangering democracy were misplaced, with the investigation in fact strengthening Brazil’s institutions. 

“There is sometimes a slightly imperfect picture of Brazil outside the country that democracy is at risk — no, that threat does not exist,” he said. “At least in my evaluation, the institutions are showing themselves to be firm [but] with occasional possibilities of frustration, of retrogression. But it’s something that is occurring within the democratic regime.” 

Often compared with Italy’s Mani Pulite or “Clean Hands” investigation in the 1990s, which destroyed that country’s established political order, the Car Wash investigation has changed Brazilian politics. 

According to the public prosecutors office, 107 people have been condemned to a total of nearly 1,635 years in prison. But like Mani Pulite, which prepared the ground for the rise of arch-populist Silvio Berlusconi, there are fears Car Wash has left a country sick of corruption and crime and reeling from its worst recession in history more open to populism. 

But Judge Moro said there were many differences between the two investigations. For one, Car Wash had not swept the political scene clean — many of those being investigated in the probe were planning to run in the October elections. Most of the cases against politicians are still stuck in the slow-moving supreme court, which under the constitution has jurisdiction over sitting congressmen. 

“I don’t see in the Brazilian scenario anyone with the profile of Berlusconi who could assume power in the same way . . . at least there doesn’t exist any candidate who is a proprietor of the means of communications,” Judge Moro said, referring to Mr Berlusconi’s control of Italy’s media.

Brazil’s Car Wash scandal puts pressure on companies to obey clean up rules
Andres Schipani

As Brazil’s investigation into its Car Wash (Lava Jato) corruption scandal enters its fifth year, Eduardo Staino, the head of compliance at Andrade Gutierrez, one of the country’s largest construction companies, recalls how the scandal took a toll on him.

“I am not going to say Lava Jato is the only reason for my marriage’s failure,” says Mr Staino, who divorced last year. “[But] I had my head in the job,” he adds, referring to the work hours and stress that he attributes to the scandal.

The continuing criminal investigation into bribery at Petrobras, the state-controlled oil producer, which came to light in 2014, has implicated a sizeable part of Brazil’s business and political establishment. Following the arrest and jailing of some Andrade Gutierrez executives and the imposition of a R$1bn ($290m) fine on the company, Mr Staino was put in charge of strengthening its compliance rules.

In common with managers in a similar position at other companies caught in the Car Wash deluge, much was left to him to protect the organisation from further legal exposure and to repair a sullied reputation. “We cannot make such a mistake again,” says Mr Staino. “We can see clearly today that if we do something wrong again we are finished.”

Such efforts as Mr Staino’s may, in the long term, help clean up the image of Brazil’s politics and business. In the meantime, the probe into graft at Petrobras, which revealed that a considerable number of companies received public contracts in exchange for bribes, has fuelled a regulatory compliance boom in Brazil.

As a result, companies have been compelled to develop codes of conduct and ethics. Such procedures as hotlines for complaints to limit opportunities for illicit payments have also become a feature of the business landscape.

The basis of a stronger legal framework came in the form of Brazil’s Clean Companies Act, in force from 2014. This has forced many companies to take compliance more seriously, not least because those found guilty of graft face potential fines of up to 20 per cent of their previous year’s gross income.

This was followed by a 2016 law that set governance and compliance rules for Brazil’s state companies, or those in which the state has a controlling interest such as Petrobras. Government ministers and members of political parties are banned from being appointed to such companies’ boards of directors.

Lava Jato has turned corruption into a “huge worry for everyone”, says Marcello Hallake, partner at Jones Day, international lawyers. In Brazil, compliance officers, heads of compliance and legal aides for compliance, he adds, are “much in demand these days”.

Mr Staino notes that it is not easy to develop and oversee compliance schemes. “This is not something you learn at school,” he says, and is “super challenging and complex”. A good compliance programme “is not something you can simply buy at a supermarket”.

At Andrade Gutierrez, robots have been brought in to help. Before the company makes a payment to a supplier, Mr Staino explains, a software robot can go through a database to check what links that supplier might have to politicians.

Where once Brazilian companies boasted about profits, now they may be as likely to emphasise how they stick to compliance rules. Fábio Januário, chief executive of construction company Odebrecht, which found itself very much part of the Lava Jato drama, says: “The company is going through a profound moment of transformation, perhaps like no other.”

A 2018 study by Berlin-based Transparency International, a non-governmental organisation, suggests a trend towards anti-corruption compliance and ethics in Brazil.

The 110 companies assessed on the strength and transparency of their anti-corruption programmes scored an average 65 out of 100, compared with 55 two years ago.

Katja Bechtel, Transparency International’s head of business integrity, warns that it is too early to say if “Brazil’s compliance hype” is part of a serious commitment to change things. “Cultural change does not happen overnight, but needs continuous efforts,” she adds.

Adopting anti-corruption and ethics schemes is a necessary but not sufficient measure, suggests Wagner Giovanini, former compliance chief for Latin America for German conglomerate Siemens and now a director of São Paulo-based consultancy Compliance Total.

“The vast majority” of companies in Brazil, says Mr Giovanini, have not yet realised the benefits to their business of having “a well-established compliance system”. Having a complaints hotline as part of a compliance scheme “is not enough to make things right”, he adds.

Brazil’s war on graft replaces costly gifts as the new soft power
John Paul Rathbone

There are few better symbols of Brazil’s influence in Latin America — what it was, is and may become — than Lima’s 37m-high statue of Christ the Redeemer.

Seven years ago, Brazilian construction company Odebrecht donated $800,000 to install the Peruvian version of Rio de Janeiro’s famed statue. Hewn from white stone, and with outstretched arms, it marked a high point of Brazil’s regional influence, global ambition and colour-blind approach to international relations.

This married Brazil’s “soft power” of soccer and samba with hard infrastructure funded by cheap loans from BNDES, the development bank and financial handmaid of Brazilian foreign policy. Diplomatically, this was backed up by Unasur, the union of South American nations that sought to isolate Mexico to the north, sidestep the US and unite South America under Brazilian leadership. Books with titles such as Brazil on the Rise, Brazil as an Economic Superpower and Brazil is the new America proliferated. Brazil, traditionally so inward looking, seemed to bestride the region.

Today, the statue, officially called the “Christ of the Pacific”, is known locally as the “Christ of Theft”. Odebrecht is in disgrace for being at the centre of a web of corruption — the Lava Jato, or “Car Wash” scandal — that the US Department of Justice has called the world’s biggest bribery scheme. Unasur has all but dissolved. Brazil’s worst recession and arguably worst political crisis have cast further doubt on its leadership.

At home, the hidden cost of Brazil’s rainbow policy has also been revealed. Former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is, controversially, in jail on corruption charges. BNDES is stuck with $4bn of bad loans. These include $800m owed by Venezuela and must, reportedly, be incorporated into the budget, implying that Brazilians will ultimately foot the bill.

A remarkable rise and a tragic fall. That said, it would be wrong to think that it marks a dimming of Brazilian influence — the country’s size and $2tn economy see to that. Nevertheless, Brazil’s projection of soft diplomacy may also be expanding. Many hope this remains true whoever is president next and whatever the state of the economy.

That may sound paradoxical, especially as no one knows who will lead the world’s fifth-largest country after October’s presidential vote.

It is already an election like no other. After more than 20 years of power alternating between the Brazilian Social Democracy party and the Workers’ party, it is outsiders who lead the polls. The next president could be Jair Bolsonaro, a far-right congressman who makes Donald Trump seem mild; Marina Silva, a leftist environmentalist with market-friendly policies; or somebody in-between. According to online betting markets PredictIt and Betfair, Geraldo Alckmin, former governor of São Paulo state, has a 35 per cent chance of winning.

Whoever becomes president must contend with the shifting coalitions of Brazil’s fragmented congress. At present, it contains more than two dozen parties, with the largest controlling less than 12 per cent of the seats. That said, “winning the polls might prove to be a lot easier than actually governing the country”, suggests consultancy Stratfor, and against such a backdrop it is near impossible to anticipate what Brazilian foreign policy will be.

There are some constants amid the uncertainties. One of the most important is the constitutionally guaranteed independence of Brazil’s judiciary and prosecutors. These are the men and women who have pursued corruption probes, such as Lava Jato, that have led to the conviction of multiple business leaders and politicians. The investigations have shown that Latin America is not defenceless in the face of corruption, something that Sérgio Moro, the probe’s leading judge, has also emphasised.

While not perfect, the investigations have set a benchmark for fighting corruption — the emerging world’s biggest scourge. The World Bank estimates $1tn of bribes are paid every year, while the World Economic Forum believes that the annual cost of corruption is equivalent to 5 per cent of global economic output, or $2.6tn.

No other Bric country comes close to Brazil’s response. It has been propelled by pressure from civil society and led by an independent judiciary, unlike politically motivated purges in China, Russia or Saudi Arabia. It has also shown up countries that fail to tackle corruption in similarly systematic ways. Many in the region, especially Mexico, rue that such investigations have not happened there.

The approach has also been matched by other measures, especially in politics. Corporate donations are no longer allowed in Brazilian electoral campaigns and politicians are being stripped of their legal immunity. In short, Brazil’s anti-corruption drive is likely to continue.

Such leadership by example, as Marcos Troyjo, a Brazilian academic at Columbia University, has said, is the “very essence of soft power”.

Exporting the rule of law, rather than corruption, is also timely. As Brazil steps back from financing regional infrastructure as part of its foreign policy, China — not known for its transparency — may be stepping in instead.

“A monument should be built to those valiant [Brazilian] judges!” Nobel-prize winning author Mario Vargas Llosa recently told the Financial Times.

Livro: Brasil: o futuro que queremos - lançamento em SP

Dia 22 de maio, às 19hs, na Casa do Saber em SP:

Brasil: O Futuro Que Queremos

Atenção: este evento acontece presencialmente na Casa do Saber (rua dr. Mario Ferraz, 414, São Paulo). A ordem de ocupação dos lugares será a ordem de chegada, não sendo possível a reserva de assentos. Após o horário de início os lugares ainda disponíveis serão cedidos para quem estiver aguardando por vaga – procure se organizar e evite atrasos.
Casa do Saber e Editora Contexto convidam para conferência de lançamento de Brasil: O Futuro Que Queremos (Contexto, 2018), com a participação do organizador, Jaime Pinsky.

Os gritos de indignação seletiva, que abafaram o debate de ideias nos últimos tempos, poderiam dar a falsa impressão de que os brasileiros são incapazes de estabelecer um diálogo qualificado e construtivo. Isso não é verdade: o Brasil dispõe de gente preocupada com os rumos do país. Sem milagres, com propostas concretas, elaboradas a partir de suas experiências e estudos, Antônio Corrêa de Lacerda, Cláudia Costin, Eduardo Muylaert, Fabio Feldmann, Glauco Arbix, Jaime Lerner, Luís Eduardo Assis, Milton Leite, Nabil Bonduki, Paulo Roberto de Almeida, Paulo Saldiva e Roberto Rodrigues tratam de áreas fundamentais para o interesse da nação, oferecendo, ao final, sugestões sólidas para o futuro do país.

Apó a conferência haverá venda de exemplares e sessão de autógrafos.  


 
 
 
LANÇAMENTO
 
Brasileiros de diferentes linhas políticas apresentam seus projetos para o Brasil. Não são palpites de leigos, são projetos de governo pensados por especialistas para as áreas de Educação, Saúde, Segurança Pública, Cidades, Habitação, Ciência e Tecnologia, Economia, Agricultura, Meio Ambiente, Política Externa e Esporte. Um livro para qualificar e dar rumo ao debate público no Brasil neste ano decisivo para o país.
 
R$49,90
 
COMPRAR
 
  
 
APRESENTAÇÃO E LANÇAMENTO DO LIVRO
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
22
 
MAIO 2018
 
 
BRASIL: O FUTURO QUE QUEREMOS
 
19h - apresentação*
20h30 - autógrafos
(aberto ao público)
Casa do Saber SP
 
*Para participar da apresentação é necessária inscrição prévia no site da Casa do Saber. Vagas limitadas.

Quem não é de São Paulo ou não poderá comparecer ao evento presencialmente, curta a página da Casa do Saber no Facebook e acompanhe a conferência on-line, ao vivo, de onde estiver.
 
 

 
 
 
(11) 3832-5838
contato@editoracontexto.com.br
www.editoracontexto.com.br
 

terça-feira, 15 de maio de 2018

Biblioteca digital do Quai d'Orsay: grande iniciativa

La bibliothèque diplomatique numérique lancée par le Ministère des Affaires étrangères !

Le 12 mars 2018, le Ministère des Affaires Étrangères a lancé sa bibliothèque diplomatique numérique. Plusieurs milliers de documents patrimoniaux détenus par le quai d’Orsay sont maintenant disponibles en ligne.
Ce site est le résultat d’une coopération avec la Bibliothèque nationale de France dans le cadre de son dispositif « Gallica marque blanche« . Un partenariat qui permet de réaliser « une bibliothèque numérique sur la base de l’infrastructure de Gallica mais paramétrée et personnalisée aux couleurs du ou des partenaire(s) contributeur(s) ». L’utilisateur bénéficie ainsi des modalités de recherche performantes de Gallica : moteur de recherche, recherche avancée et recherche plein texte. Les ressources documentaires sont également accessibles par thèmes :
« Seuls les pays de protectorat ayant acquis ultérieurement leur indépendance sont représentés (excluant donc ceux qui deviendront des territoires français d’outre-mer) » :
  • Maroc, 1912-1956
  • Tunisie, 1881-1956
  • Annam, 1887-1954
  • Cambodge, 1887-1954
  • Laos, 1899-1954
  • Tonkin, 1887-1954
A noter également le lien « Cabinet des découvertes » qui permet de consulter des documents particulièrement remarquables ou étonnants.
L’illustration est extraite du site du cabinet des découvertes du Ministère des Affaires Étrangères.

Seminario ‘Brasil, brasis’ na ABL: Gustavo Franco e Jorge Caldeira


Acadêmico Merval Pereira coordena na ABL o Seminário ‘Brasil, brasis’ de maio 2018 intitulado ‘As riquezas do Brasil’

A Academia Brasileira de Letras abre sua série de Seminários “Brasil, brasis” de 2018 com o tema As riquezas do Brasil, sob coordenação do Acadêmico e jornalista Merval Pereira (oitavo ocupante da cadeira 31, eleito em 2 de junho de 2011) e as participações do economista Gustavo Franco e do cientista político Jorge Caldeira. O coordenador-geral dos Seminários “Brasil, brasis” de 2018 é o Acadêmico e professor Domício Proença Filho.
O Seminário Brasil, brasis, com entrada franca e transmissão ao vivo pelo Portal da ABL, tem patrocínio do Bradesco.
OS CONVIDADOS
Bacharel (1979) e mestre (1982) em economia pela PUC do Rio de Janeiro e PhD (1986) pela Universidade de Harvard, Gustavo H. B. Franco é professor da PUC desde 1986 e está entre os mais importantes e influentes economistas do país.
Franco começou sua carreira no setor público em maio de 1993, como Secretário Adjunto de Política Econômica quando Fernando Henrique Cardoso assumiu o Ministério da Fazenda. Foi presidente do Banco Central do Brasil, e também diretor da Área Internacional do Banco Central entre 1993 e 1999.
O mais jovem entre os presidentes do Banco Central no período democrático, Franco presidiu a instituição em 1998, quando se observou a menor taxa de inflação de todo o período de existência do Banco Central: 1,6% ao ano de acordo com o IPCA. Teve participação central na formulação e condução do Plano Real, bem como nos debates associados à estabilização e às reformas que se seguiram.
Depois de deixar o Banco Central em 1999, fundou a Rio Bravo Investimentos, instituição líder em investimentos alternativos no Brasil, desde 2016 associada à Fosun, um dos mais destacados grupos privados chineses. Participa e participou de diversos conselhos consultivos e de administração. É autor ou organizador de dezoito livros, não apenas sobre economia, mas também sobre temas históricos e aspectos da obra de Machado de Assis, Fernando Pessoa, Goethe e Shakespeare.
Escreve regularmente para jornais e revistas desde 1988, em veículos como o Jornal do BrasilFolha de S. PauloVeja e Época. Hoje, é colunista do Globo e do Estado de S. Paulo.
Doutor em Ciência Política, mestre em Sociologia e bacharel em Ciências Sociais (FFLCH–USP), Jorge Caldeira é escritor, sócio-fundador da Mameluco Edições e Produções Culturais e possui ampla experiência profissional na área jornalística e editorial. Foi publisher da revista Bravo!, consultor do projeto “Brasil 500 Anos”, da Rede Globo de televisão, editor-executivo da revista Exame, editor da Ilustrada e da Revista da Folha, do jornal Folha de S. Paulo, editor de economia da revista Isto É e editor da Revista do Cebrap.
Jorge Caldeira é autor de Noel Rosa, de costas para o mar (Brasiliense), Mauá, empresário do Império (Companhia das Letras), Viagem pela história do Brasil (Companhia das Letras), A nação mercantilista (Editora 34), Ronaldo: glória e drama no futebol globalizado (Editora 34), O banqueiro do sertão (Mameluco), A construção do samba (Mameluco) e História do Brasil com empreendedores (Mameluco), além de organizar Brasil, a história contada por quem viu(Mameluco) e dos volumes Diogo Antonio Feijó e José Bonifácio, que integram a Coleção Formadores do Brasil (Editora 34). Escreveu, ainda, Júlio Mesquita e seu tempo (Mameluco), Nem Céu Nem Inferno (Três Estrelas), 101 Brasileiros que fizeram História (Estação Brasil), e História da Riqueza no Brasil (Estação Brasil). Caldeira ocupa a cadeira nº 18 da Academia Paulista de Letras.
15/05/2018

Flawed Sociology: o sociologo que não sai do seu mundinho...

Flawed Sociology: este sociólogo social-democrata acredita que existe um "sistema injusto", que condena jovens de menos de 20 anos da atualidade a disporem de um padrão de vida inferior ao de seus pais. Ele não se dá conta que milhares de pessoas, ao redor do mundo, ascenderam de uma miséria abjeta a uma pobreza aceitável graças a esse mesmo "sistema", que não está concebido contra ninguém, mas que funciona de acordo com a lógica de mercado, que remunera cada um de acordo com a sua capacidade, como diria o velho Marx. Como outros lunáticos da Sociologia, ele também pretende criar um sistema alternativo que seria mais benigno com os "losers", esquecendo que todas as tentativas de engenharia social empreendidas precedentemente redundaram em coisas muito piores do que as atualmente existentes nesse "sistema".
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 


Flawed Capitalism On Both Sides Of The Atlantic


by  on Social Europe, 

Given the scale of poverty and inequality in contemporary Britain (and indeed in the United States), no right-thinking person can presumably be fully happy with the organization of a system of rewards that leaves so many people under daily and severe financial pressure, keeping the millennial generation struggling to enjoy in their 20s even the modest life options enjoyed by their parents. And given too the steady failure of the US economy to maintain the value of blue-collar wages and of the UK economy to break out of a productivity trap that keeps general wages down and living standards stagnant, it is also presumably hard to avoid the conclusion that we are now in need on both sides of the Atlantic of an entirely new way of organizing both economy and society.
To make sense of where we find ourselves, and to locate a better way forward, my latest book Flawed Capitalism: the Anglo-American Condition and its Resolution, traces the similarities and differences between the two great examples of modern deregulated capitalism.
Both post-war US and UK economies are currently living downwind of two long periods of sustained growth, each associated with a distinctive social settlement.
  • The first – triggered by New Dealers in the US and by the Attlee governments in the UK – sustained 25 years of economic growth full employment and rising living standards on both sides of the Atlantic, on the basis of a social compact between private businesses and organized labor that allowed profits and wages to rise together. That social settlement ended in the stagflation of the 1970s.
  • The second – the one triggered by Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives in the UK and by Ronald Reagan’s Republicans in the US – was not so balanced. Instead, it was a settlement predicated on the defeat of organized labor and the parallel creation of high levels of income inequality, with generalized living standards rising for later baby-boomers only on the basis of high and ultimately insecure levels of personal debt.
That second settlement did not simply fall. It crashed in the financial crisis of 2008 and attempts to revive it by conservative politicians in both countries have simply given us a second lost decade that now matches the 1970s in severity and despair.
With that in mind, Flawed Capitalism also argues that the current rise of right-wing populism in the advanced industrial world must be seen a product (with the Trump and Brexit votes as examples) of what Antonio Gramsci long ago called “morbid symptoms” – symptoms of madness generated in the interregnum between social settlements. If that formulation is right, ending those morbid symptoms will first require the creation of a new social settlement which alone can bring the interregnum to a close; and, to succeed in that closure, any new social settlement will have to be more progressive than the one it replaces, since it was its predecessor’s reactionary character that was the ultimate cause of its collapse.
Recent attempts to revive the neoliberal social settlement – by Tory-led governments in the UK, and by ultra-conservative Republicans in the US Congress and now White House – have had (and are continuing to have) similarly appalling social consequences. These include: intensified pressure on the living standards of working families, and the associated rise in levels of personal indebtedness; persistent and deepening poverty for the low paid, the unemployed, and those reliant on welfare benefits; the continuing failure to ease and improve the work-life balance for families; intensified racism and hostility to immigration; and the emergence of at least two “lost” generations on each side of the Atlantic – a working class one trapped in areas of declining industrial employment, and a more middle-class millennial one facing (among other things) mountains of student debt, rising housing costs and the burden of heavy transport and childcare expenses.
In the light of these adverse consequences of conservative attempts to prolong the Thatcher/Reagan settlements, Flawed Capitalism argues that the way forward to a new social settlement is both clear and urgent.
  • The way forward is clear – we need the rapid creation of a social settlement based on greater income equality, on a fairer gender balance and greater flexibility in hours and organization of employment. It should build on a new compact between a progressive state and a revitalized private sector, the two working together to raise productivity by harnessing the full set of talents currently lying dormant in a labor force increasingly alienated by wage, employment and family pressures.
  • The need is also urgent: without such a settlement, the material and social deprivations sustaining right-wing populism can only grow.
Flawed Capitalism argues that the British Labour Party – in its Corbyn-led form – offers a route to that new settlement if its progressive policy trajectory can be maintained; and the Democrats will find themselves with a similar opportunity in Washington DC in 2020 if the Sanders wing of the party prevails. So, the future is all to play for. We live in interesting times; but with the times come both opportunity and responsibility. An opportunity now exists to call into existence a new and more progressive social settlement. It is an opportunity that this generation of progressives must not waste. They can only waste it by failing to recognize it, and by failing to act.

Flawed Capitalism is published today in the UK and in the US

About David Coates


David Coates holds the Worrell Chair in Anglo-American Studies at Wake Forest University. He is the author of 'Answering Back: Liberal Responses to Conservative Arguments', New York: Continuum Books, 2010. You can visit his website at http://www.davidcoates.net. He writes here in a personal capacity.

Brasil: o ajuste economico ainda nao foi feito - FMI (Editorial Estadao)

Eu sempre disse, desde antes da Grande Destruição lulopetista, que a tarefa de reconstrução seria enorme, ingente, lenta e dolorosa. Até agora, o Brasil se limitou a colocar band-aid sobre suas fraturas mais graves. O trabalho verdadeiro ainda não começou.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

O risco-chave, segundo o FMI

O Brasil poderá entrar em nova crise, e até em recessão, se o próximo governo abandonar a pauta de ajustes e reformas, alertou diretor do Fundo
Editorial O Estado de S. Paulo, 15 de maio de 2018
O Brasil poderá entrar em nova crise, e até em recessão, se o próximo governo abandonar a pauta de ajustes e reformas, disse o diretor do Departamento de Hemisfério Ocidental do Fundo Monetário Internacional (FMI), Alejandro Werner. Ele destacou a importância da reforma da Previdência, mas um crescimento mais rápido e sustentável, acrescentou, dependerá de mudanças mais amplas. Uma política inovadora deve incluir, entre outros pontos, segundo o diretor do FMI, abertura econômica e simplificação do sistema tributário. Werner comentou as perspectivas do País ontem, em Nova York, num evento da Fundação Getúlio Vargas e da Câmara de Comércio Brasileira e Americana.
Advertências muito parecidas têm sido formuladas no Brasil por economistas conhecidos pela competência técnica e pelo bom senso. As avaliações apresentadas por Alejandro Werner põem a discussão, no entanto, num cenário mais amplo. Ele dirige uma equipe familiarizada com a economia de toda a América Latina e empenhada em acompanhar 0 dia a dia das crises, das políticas, das estratégias de ajustes e mudanças e, naturalmente, dos sucessos e fracassos.
Esse panorama é discutido no relatório de perspectivas econômicas das Américas divulgado na sexta-feira passada numa entrevista coletiva em Lima. As economias estão em crescimento em quase todo o hemisfério, do Canadá à Argentina e ao Chile, mas, em vez de apenas festejar a recuperação, os autores do estudo lançam uma exortação: é preciso aproveitar o impulso para levar adiante as pautas de reformas.
A exortação vale especialmente para os países latino-americanos, e, dentro desse conjunto, para Brasil e Argentina. Apesar da retomada do crescimento e da melhora de alguns indicadores importantes, as duas maiores economias da América do Sul ainda têm de enfrentar uma pesada agenda de consertos e reformas. A Argentina, muito vulnerável a problemas externos e, portanto, a pressões cambiais, acabou pedindo ajuda ao Fundo pouco antes da divulgação do relatório. O Brasil, com bom volume de reservas, contas externas saudáveis e inflação bem abaixo da meta oficial, tem mais espaço para se mexer. Não pode, no entanto, retardar por muito tempo, a continuação do programa iniciado pelo governo Temer. Os perigos maiores foram apontados com clareza no pronunciamento de Alejandro Werner em Nova York.
Sem rápida melhora das finanças oficiais, a dívida pública poderá em breve superar 100% do Produto Interno Bruto (PIB). Sem perspectiva de melhora, os mercados poderão retrair-se. Com isso o financiamento se tornará muito difícil e custoso, o País poderá entrar em nova crise e afundar de novo em recessão. A lista de ações para arrumar a economia, torná-la mais segura e aumentar a capacidade de crescimento inclui, além da reforma da Previdência e de mudanças no sistema tributário, alterações na alocação de crédito, abertura ao comércio, maior integração nos mercados globais, melhora da infraestrutura e redução da burocracia.
Dois fatores positivos são apontados: 1) o atual governo tomou iniciativas na direção correta, propondo o teto de gastos e iniciando as correções; 2) a reativação da economia proporciona condições para um ajuste mais intenso na fase inicial e para o avanço na pauta de reformas. A proposta de aproveitar o impulso vale para todo o hemisfério, especialmente para a América Latina, mas aplica-se muito especialmente ao Brasil.
O caso brasileiro se destaca, no entanto, por mais um fator de preocupação: o “risco-chave”, segundo o relatório, é o de alteração do programa econômico depois das eleições presidenciais, com “maior instabilidade no mercado e maior incerteza quanto às perspectivas de médio prazo”. De modo geral, a expectativa de continuidade dos ajustes aparece nos comentários sobre os demais países da América Latina. Ao traduzir o quadro eleitoral em termos de grave incerteza econômica, os técnicos do FMI mostram boa informação e realismo. Longe de ser um excesso retórico, a expressão “risco-chave” é um alerta preciso.