1099) Brazil in the Global Economy: um estudo sobre ganhos de comercio

Brazil in the Global Economy
(um estudo sobre os ganhos a serem obtidos pelo Brasil, com base num modelo econométrico, com a conclusão de uma rodada de negociações comerciais multilaterais)

The purpose of this study is to contribute to the knowledge base upon which the Brazilian government, as well as the international community, evaluates the policy choices the country faces in the realm of trade. The paper simulates a range of possible trade agreements as well as other changes in the global economy that could affect Brazil, exploring the effects of these changes on the Brazilian economy.

The paper finds that all explored trade agreements will have positive, but very modest, effects on the Brazilian economy and on Brazilian households as a whole. Furthermore, a Doha agreement would increases employment of unskilled labour by more than an agreement among the large developing countries alone. Yet, the paper figures that a Doha agreement would be more favourable for skilled labour.

At the same time, the paper indicates that under all the trade scenarios, small overall gains in real income mask somewhat larger changes for different sectors, producing both winners and losers. In this context, a Doha agreement would generally favour agricultural sectors but deal losses to some manufacturing sectors. The impact of different South–South free trade agreements varies considerably within the agricultural sector, reflecting the elimination of existing high tariffs imposed by one or more partners. The paper points that Brazilian manufacturing sectors tend to lose under any of these agreements, with the exception of the automotive sector.

The paper concludes that increased global economic engagement may still be seen as beneficial for the Brazilian economy. Nevertheless, it is important in policy debates that the nature and costs of structural adjustment be taken into account and that the pattern of trade achieved serves the country’s long-term development goals.

http://www.carnegieendowment.org/files/brazil_global_economy.pdf