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quinta-feira, 4 de julho de 2024

O mito do poderio militar de Rússia e China - Paul Dibb (World At War)


Paul Dibb, The Strategist

World At War, July 3, 2024

Everyone thought that Russia would take Kyiv within a few days. Now voices are being raised that China would win a war against the US..........

China’s military strength is entirely unproven in practical terms and, like its ally Russia, China has serious military weaknesses.

Western intelligence analysts and policymakers have consistently overrated Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s military strengths. And precisely the same mistakes are now being made about China’s PLA.

When the adversary is a totalitarian state it is easier to make judgements based on quantitative assessments of counting weapons—tanks, jet fighters, and missiles—and raw manpower, rather than on the qualitative and psychological characteristics that often determine the military’s performance on the battlefield.

It is easy to concentrate on the material strengths of both China and Russia that can be counted by overhead means of intelligence, while neglecting crucial intangibles such as the quality and experience of their troops.

One of the most serious intangible defects of China’s and Russia’s military forces is that they lack a critical mass of professionally trained NCOs. The dearth of professional non-commissioned officers means that totalitarian armies are unable to fight effectively because NCOs provide the vital link between officers and soldiers about battlefield decision-making.

Russia and Chinas military have rigid and fragmented command and control structures because the political leadership does not trust the military leadership, and the military does not trust the rank-and-file. Such systems fail to successfully share information, discourage initiative, and prevent battlefield lessons from informing strategy or being incorporated into future military doctrine.

China has no practical combat experience worth talking about. Its last serious use of force overseas was in 1979 when it sought to teach Vietnam a lessonand failed miserably.

I am very doubtful that China will be able to win a war against the US. The US also has allies in the region and if Japan, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines side with the US, China will have a very tough time.

Source: The Strategist, Paul Dibb, Professor Zoltan Barany of the University of Texas.


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