Geopolitics and investment
Adam Tooze (from FT), 12/07/2024
“Over the past 20 or 30 years, [geopolitics] has been deflationary, created lower risk and made it easier to invest,” says Ali Dibadj, chief executive of Janus Henderson, the British-American investment group that manages about $353bn in assets. “Going forward it is the complete opposite: it is probably inflationary; it is probably going to create more risk; and it is going to make it harder to invest.”
An industry that over the past two decades has been hoovering up mathematicians to devise new trading strategies is now leaning on political scientists for guidance. Most investors are used to dealing with pockets of instability and conflict, but many say the sheer number of recent shocks — even in traditionally stable democracies — and the long-term nature of conflicts represent a sea change. … Theodore Bunzel, head of geopolitical advisory at Lazard, says the firm set up a dedicated political unit in 2022 as clients were increasingly demanding advice on how to navigate investments in regions such as China. …. “In the past, the impulse was to remove politics from corporate decision making,” Bunzel says, but that is becoming impossible due to “tension between large, interconnected powers”. … Rothschild & Co Goldman Sachs followed suit last year with a geopolitical advisory unit … PR firm Brunswick — best known for advising clients on mergers and acquisitions situations — has hired a string of advisers with geopolitical expertise including a former president of the World Bank, a former director-general of the World Trade Organization, and a former director of the US National Security Agency. …
Boutique investment bank Centerview recently hired Richard Haass, the former head of the Council on Foreign Relations, as a senior counsellor. Lord Mark Sedwill, the former head of the British civil service, is a member of the risk committee at Rothschild, while Schroders has brought in former British ambassador to China, Sir Sebastian Wood, and Sir Nicholas Carter, former chief of the defence staff in the UK, to advise on geopolitics and navigating international conflict. … The number of funds offering investors a way to invest in emerging markets while excluding China has ballooned from eight at the start of 2022 to 20 today, according to Morningstar, and inflows have exploded as tensions between the US and China have worsened. Almost $1bn a month has been invested into EM ex-China funds this year, up from an average of about $500mn a month in 2023 and $200mn a month in 2022.
Others are turning to even more explicitly political funds. This year Tikehau Capital, the Paris-listed group that manages $48bn in assets, launched a “European Sovereignty Fund” as a response to “escalating geopolitical tensions and the repercussions of excessive globalisation”.
From FT
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