China is seeking to create a new model in its relations with certain countries. It is attempting to achieve this through a foreign policy that reflects the reality of China's economic rise.
Since
September 2015 they have tried to create a positive construct
pertaining to their relationship with the United States. In this context
one is reminded of the comment made by former President Nixon as he set
out in 1972 for Beijing hoping to end two decades of enmity. He
observed that "China and the United States have had great differences.
We will have differences in the future, but what we must do is to find a
way to see that we can have differences without being enemies in war."
Last
year saw Chinese President Xi Jinping going for his first state visit
to the United States, at a time when the stakes have become even higher
within the paradigm of the bilateral relationship of these two
countries.
Despite
the brinkmanship between the two countries on a wide range of subjects -
cyber hacking and contested atolls - both now realise that they need
inter-active engagement to properly manage their differences. In this
context one is reminded of the blunt warnings issued by President Obama
in the second half of 2015 on cyber hacking: "There comes a point at
which we consider this a core national security threat… we can choose to
make this an area of competition, which I guarantee you we'll win if we
have to." BBC later reported that only a scrambled visit by China's
security chief for what the White House described as "candid, blunt
discussions" seems to have averted American sanctions. Subsequently,
after more damage control, despite US public opinion being increasingly
negative on China (over China stealing American jobs, as Trump puts it),
President Obama told the media that China's peaceful, orderly rise was
in the US's interest and good for the world.
Sensing
sensitivity towards China within the US political horizon, President
Xi, during his visit to the United States opted wisely for a risk-averse
strategy with minimal substance and candor. He presented himself only
as a man with a Chinese Dream and a plan aimed at the great rejuvenation
of the Chinese nation. Carrie Gracie of the BBC drew attention in this
regard to the fact that "China is now on track to overtake the US within
the decade and regain its status as the world's biggest economy". This
assumes an interesting connotation given that China is now intent on
building military force and diplomatic clout to match its economic
might. They also realise that the surest way forward in achieving their
objective of becoming the world's largest manufacturing and trading
nation would be through US co-operation, at least in the economic
sphere.
President
Xi has been pushing his "new model of great power relations" with
regard to the United States. He believes that this will enable China to
inexorably advance and avoid wars at the same time. This policy is being
followed by China despite being aware that the US record vis-a-vis
China in recent times has not always been benign - the US threatening
China's political system by pushing democracy, undermining its
territorial integrity by supplying arms to Taiwan and through schemes to
contain China by surrounding it with American alliances and military
deployments.
Obviously
aware of these semi-hostile factors, President Xi has taken measures to
contain possible adverse effects of such moves on his country. In his
first four years in power, President Xi has used anti-corruption and
ideological campaigns to stiffen the sinews of the Communist Party and
buttress one-party rule. This he has done because he believes that
China, to move forward, needs discipline.
CHINA'S
REAL STRENGTH LIES IN SOFT POWER: Referring to Chinese efforts towards a
more realistic bilateral relationship with the US, J. Stapleton Roy of
CNN has noted that in the last 44 years, five Republican Presidents and
three Democratic ones have all concluded that seeking constructive
relations with China is in the U.S. national interest. Secondly, he has
observed that as the two principal powers in the Asia-Pacific region,
they will be interacting together and for this the US needs a long-term
perspective. Lastly, he has pointed out that the US needs to acknowledge
that China's real strength lies in the soft power that it has
accumulated through its example of rapid economic development. This has
given it the aura of a successful rising power.
China
knows that there are many factors that are still influencing US views
regarding it. It is hoping however that sooner rather than later, the
United States will start relying more on an effective functional
bilateral relationship with it.
Pakistan:
China's relationship with Pakistan has also continued to grow over the
past year. The bilateral friendship that started more than sixty years
ago acquired a new special dimension in April 2015 with Chinese
President Xi Jinping arriving in Islamabad. He and Pakistan's Prime
Minister Nawaz Sharif unveiled new trade and investment deals worth $28
billion. The deals were part of the proposed $46 billion China-Pakistan
Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, which envisions Chinese investment
fuelling road, rail and electricity projects that will create a trade
route from the Chinese city of Kashgar to the southern Pakistani port of
Gwadar (control of which was transferred to a Chinese public company in
2013).
The
CPEC project will see the 3,000km trade route built over the next 15
years. It will give China an alternative trade route to using ports on
its eastern and southern coasts, and therefore cheaper market access to
the Middle East - crucial for the country's oil import. It will also see
10,400MW of new power projects added to the Pakistani national grid by
2018at a cost of almost $16 billion. The addition of a further 6,600MW
has also been proposed after 2018, at an additional cost of $18 billion.
When completed, these projects would see Pakistan's current electricity
output double. This Chinese promise was however not a one-way street.
The Chinese President took this opportunity to seek Pakistan's
cooperation in quelling the ingress of armed Chinese separatist groups
from Pakistan's north into China's Xinjiang province.
Pakistan
and China have held close diplomatic, military and economic ties for
decades, but these projects represent the largest investment in
Pakistan's history by the Chinese regional hegemon, as it seeks to
solidify economic advantages against regional rival India and the United
States.
This
use of economic muscle by China has also helped in deepening its ties
with West-wary Iran. After a visit to Tehran by Chinese President Xi
Jinping in January 2016, it was revealed that Beijing and Tehran had
agreed to expand their bilateral trade engagement to $600 billion over
the next decade. This immediately received the support of Iran's
religious leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He termed China as a country
Iran could trust. Such a measure was viewed as significant by analysts
as Iran had just emerged from years of economic isolation by the United
Nations' nuclear watchdog ruling that it had curbed its nuclear
programme, clearing the way for the lifting sanctions of UN, US and
European Union.
Iran:
Xi's visit to Iran was within the paradigm of a three-nation regional
tour that had already taken him to Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Iran's
regional rival. Xi became the first Chinese leader to visit the Islamic
Republic of Iran in 14 years. During his visit to Iran Xi also
underlined that China was ready to upgrade the level of bilateral
relations and cooperation so that a new chapter could start in bilateral
relations.
It
may be mentioned that bilateral trade between the two countries stood
at some $52 billion in 2014, but that figure dropped last year due to
plunging oil prices. Officials from Iran and China signed 17 documents
and letters of intent to broaden bilateral cooperation in energy,
industry, transportation, railways, ports, new technology, tourism and
the environment. By this latest initiative China also cautiously pointed
out that it was careful not to allow the 'cold war' between Iran and
Saudi Arabia becoming an obstacle for China to have a good relationship
with both the countries. China also carried their subtle diplomatic
efforts further when President Hassan Rouhani of Iran stated that the
two countries had agreed to cooperate on the issue of "terrorism and
extremism in Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan and Yemen".
Middle
East: Geoffrey Aronson, an American specialist on Middle East affairs,
has made certain important points while commenting on China's recent
overtures to the region. He has noted that Xi Jinping's first visit to
the Middle East (in 2016) as China's President reflected three emerging,
defining elements in the conduct of Beijing's foreign policy in the
region. According to him, the basic building block of Chinese policy
remains the development and expansion of economic and trade links
throughout the region - "from the massive energy markets of Saudi Arabia
to infrastructure developments in Iran".
China
also announced during Xi's visits to the region that it would not only
build a nuclear reactor in Saudi Arabia but would also set up funds with
the United Arab Emirates and Qatar worth a total of $20 billion to
invest in conventional energy. Aronson has correctly pointed out that
China's emphasis on support for state sovereignty, noninterference in
domestic affairs and a "no enemies" policy offer a stark contrast to the
interventionist policies of the West.
Xi's
visit to these three countries highlighted Beijing's effort to place
China at the centre of a new system of international trade. It also
underlined that the expansion of economic ties had created an imperative
for increased diplomatic engagement to protect and expand these
relationships.
Another
significant feature during this regional visit was Chinese President Xi
Jinping calling for the establishment of a Palestinian State, with East
Jerusalem as its capital. Through this China underlined that the
Palestinian problem "should not be marginalised". Xi also announced aid
of 50 million yuan ($7.6m) for a solar power station project in the
Palestinian territories. This was welcomed by the Arab League.
STRATEGIC
AND SECURITY DIMENSION: It needs to be understood that the
globalisation of China's own definition of national security has both a
strategic and a security dimension in the Middle Eastern region. China's
growing role in UN peace-keeping efforts is increasingly being
supplemented by sovereign expansion of China's military capacity - the
most prominent example being the creation of the first Chinese military
base outside China's borders - in tiny Djibouti, where the US and France
also maintain military forces astride the critical maritime route from
the Chinese mainland to its vital markets via Suez to the Mediterranean.
China's
current reappearance on the international stage also underlines
Beijing's growing presence in Asia-Pacific region and also signals a
challenge to the system shaped and dominated by the United States,
France, Britain and Japan over three quarters of a century. This was
demonstrated in the manner in which China used its political-financial
clout with aid-dependent Cambodia, a member of ASEAN, in containing
criticism of China by ASEAN States (which requires consensus) pertaining
to Chinese views regarding Chinese jurisdiction over the South China
Sea.
The writer, a former Ambassador, is an analyst specialised in foreign affairs, right to information and good governance.
muhammadzamir0@gmail.com