Global Economic Prospects; the world in transition - a World Bank Report

Global Economic Prospects, June 2015 : The Global Economy in Transition

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Published: 2015-06

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Global growth is expected to be 2.8 percent in 2015, but is expected to pick up to 3.2 percent in 2016–17. Growth in developing countries and some high-income countries is set to disappoint again this year. The prospect of rising borrowing costs will compound the challenges many developing countries are facing as they adapt to an era of low commodity prices. Risks to this outlook remain tilted to the downside. This edition of Global Economic Prospects includes two Special Features that analyze the policy challenges raised by the two transitions in developing countries: the risks associated with the first U.S. central bank interest rate increase since 2006 and the implications of persistently low commodity prices for low-income countries. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.

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“World Bank Group. 2015. Global Economic Prospects, June 2015 : The Global Economy in Transition. Washington, DC: World Bank. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/21999 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/21999

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Global Economic Prospects

Global Economic Prospects, 2015 : World Bank

Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 : Having Fiscal Space and Using It

Global growth again disappointed in 2014 but a lackluster recovery is underway, with increasingly divergent prospects in major economies. Looking ahead, growth is expected to rise slowly, supported by continued recovery in high-income countries and receding domestic headwinds in developing economies. Weak global trade growth and lower commodity prices are projected to persist while financial conditions will likely tighten gradually. Risks to the outlook are still tilted to the downside. The stability of remittances may help some of the lowest-income countries weather shocks. In some developing economies, monetary policy challenges may be attenuated if falling commodity prices reduce inflationary pressures. Fiscal stimulus could effectively support growth if there is sufficient fiscal space. Some developing countries, however, have to rebuild fiscal space to preserve their ability to implement countercyclical fiscal policy, which has served them well over the decade. Both high-income and developing countries need to undertake structural reforms that promote growth and job creation and help achieve poverty reduction goals. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report. On a twice yearly basis (January and June), it examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on developing countries. The report includes analysis of topical policy challenges faced by developing countries through extensive research in the January edition and shorter pieces in the June edition.

Citation:

“World Bank Group. 2015. Global Economic Prospects, January 2015 : Having Fiscal Space and Using It. Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/20758 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/20758

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Global Economic Prospects 

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2015-01-13

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World Bank Group

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Perspectivas Economicas Mundiais - Banco Mundial, janeiro de 2014

Global Economic Prospects, Volume 8, January 2014 : Coping with Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries

High-income economies appear to be finally turning the corner, contributing to a projected acceleration in global growth from 2.4 percent in 2013 to 3.2 percent this year, 3.4 percent in 2015, and 3.5 percent in 2016. Overall, growth in developing countries is projected to pick up modestly from 4.8 percent in 2013 to 5.3 percent this year, 5.5 percent in 2015, and 5.7 percent in 2016. In the baseline, the withdrawal of quantitative easing (and its effect on the long end of U.S. interest rates) is assumed to follow a relatively slow orderly trajectory. If, however, the taper is met with an abrupt market adjustment, capital inflows could weaken sharply—placing renewed stress on vulnerable developing economies. In a scenario where long-term interest rates rise rapidly by 100 basis points, capital inflows could decline by as much as 50 percent for several quarters.

Citation

“World Bank. 2014. Global Economic Prospects, Volume 8, January 2014 : Coping with Policy Normalization in High-Income Countries. Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/16572 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”

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http://hdl.handle.net/10986/16572

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• Global Economic Prospects 

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2014-01

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World Bank

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