Jason Jay Smart, Jan 26, 2026
https://www.youtube.com/live/FFORJT5x0Nk
Russia’s war has shifted from a military campaign with a clear end state into a financial countdown driven by money, interest rates, and internal cohesion. As borrowing costs remain dangerously high and inflation continues to bite, the state loses its ability to absorb shocks or hide systemic failures. A persistent 16% policy rate tightens credit and makes refinancing prohibitively expensive while pushing immense stress into payrolls, small firms, and regional budgets. Because defense and security spending remain protected, everything else faces immediate cuts, including repairs, wages, infrastructure, and basic services. This brutal tradeoff accelerates decay and transforms financial pressure into volatile political pressure.
Inside the Kremlin, shrinking cash reserves turn former allies into dangerous rivals. Security elites now compete for control of dwindling resources, and this internal infighting becomes increasingly difficult to conceal. This economic fragility provides the context for expanding sabotage and intimidation operations abroad as the regime widens risk to buy time. The frontline grind delivers compounding costs without a victory to reset elite loyalty. As capacity shrinks in 2026, the regime shifts from strategy to damage control, and the clock becomes visible to everyone.
CHAPTERS:
00:00 - Intro: Putin’s Three-Day War Becomes a Four-Year Trap
01:05 - Russia’s Economic Rot: The Kremlin’s Ticking Clock
03:52 - Russia’s Banking Crisis: High Interest Rates & Toxic Loans
04:31 - Putin’s Military Budget: Can Russia Finance the War?
08:00 - Abandoned by Allies: Why Iran & Syria Can't Help Putin
09:14 - China’s Exit Strategy: Beijing is Not a Lifeboat
10:37 - The Kremlin's Fatal Error: Putin’s Strategic Dead End
