Tehran called. Moscow didn’t answer.
William James Dixon
Royal United Services Institute, March 5, 2026
Russia's Great Liquidation has begun.
Iran appealed to the Kremlin to invoke mutual assistance and activate its air defence systems in Syria. The response? Silence. Radar systems were switched off. Transponders went dark.
Just like Assad. Just like Maduro.
We we are not seeing a resurgent American superpower.
We are witnessing a textbook case of Paul Kennedy’s "Imperial Overstretch." Russia’s strategic commitments have officially exceeded its economic capacity.
To sustain the assault on Kyiv, the outposts are being sacrificed:
Tehran: The cornerstone of Russia’s Middle East architecture liquidating.
Bamako : The 'Africa Corps' logistical artery severed.
Central Asia: China has already moved in.
The Balkans: A strategic window for EU integration is wide open.
Southern Caucasus: Now called the Trump Corridor.
Havana: The next domino in a new 21st-century imperial scramble?
Since 2022, Ukraine has transitioned from a theatre of restitution into a financial and military sinkhole absorbing everthing else. The Kremlin faced the ultimate imperial dilemma: It could afford Ukraine, or it could afford its old empire. It chose Ukraine.
For Western policymakers, this creates a finite 18-to-24 month window. The question is no longer if Moscow will retreat, but who will inherit the strategic assets - the West, China, or chaos?
My full analysis with Maksym Beznosiuk on the anatomy of this collapse is now live with Royal United Services Institute.
👇Link in first comment below.
#Geopolitics #NationalSecurity #RUSI #GlobalRisk #Ukraine #ImperialOverstretch
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