Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.
Três textos, absolutamente críticos, das recentes manifestações "econômicas" do papa Francisco, que eu achei totalmente despropositadas, mais próximas da teologia (equivocada) da libertação do que do mainstream economics. Nem se pode dizer que suas posições sejam keynesianas, pois o keynesianismo -- e sua vertente da "síntese neo-keynesiana", não do keynesianismo de botequim, que vigora entre nós -- é um pouco mais inteligente do que as alegações ingênuas do papa contra o lucro, o consumismo, o egoísmo, enfim, essas bobagens que os padrecos vivem repetindo por pura ignorância da teoria e da história econômicas.
Bem, vejamos simplesmente o resumo e depois basta clicar nos links, para ler os textos por inteiro.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Pope Francis Denies Beneficence of Free Markets
What to make of Pope Francis's new economic manifesto, Evangnelli Gaudium, in which His Holiness claims that there's no factual basis for believing that free markets bring about "greater justice and inclusiveness in the world"? Here are excerpts from responses by three Independent Institute scholars, beginning with Independent Institute Senior Fellow Benjamin W. Powell and his Texas Tech University colleague Darren Hudson: "In the freest of countries the poorest 10 percent of the population earns an average annual income of more than $10,000," Powell writes in the Huffington Post. "Drop down to just the next quarter of countries (the 50 to 75th percentile) and the poorest 10 percent average only $3,800. In the least free countries they earn less than $1,000." READ MORE
Eu poderia recomendar uns dois ou três livros de economia ao papa, para ajudá-lo a reajustar sua visão profundamente equivocada do mundo econômico. Se nenhum conselheiro econômico corrigi-lo, ele vai continuar a falar bobagens; a menos que seja intencional.
Seria bem jesuítico isso...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Le pape François, le 27 novembre 2013, au Vatican. REUTERS/MAX ROSSI
Le pape dénonce l’abandon d’une « saine économie »
Blog : Digne de foi
Le Monde, 12.12.2013 à 22:40
Le pape va-t-il une nouvelle fois être traité de " marxiste et de néo-socialiste " par les néo-cons américains ? Après son texte programmatique du 26 novembre, qui lui a valu ses accusations, et dans lequel François dénonçait " la main invisible du marché " et " la culture du déchet ", le pape renouvelle sa charge contre les méfaits de la crise financière dans son premier message pour la paix, publié jeudi 12 décembre et qui sera lu dans toutes les églises le 1er janvier. Pour de nouveaux "modes de vie" Intitulé La fraternité, fondement et route pour la paix, ce texte dénonce " les éthiques contemporaines caractérisées par un individualisme diffus, un égocentrisme et un consumérisme matérialiste, qui affaiblissent les liens sociaux, en alimentant cette mentalité du “ déchet ”, qui pousse au mépris ". "La succession des crises économiques doit nous amener à repenser nos modèles de développement économique et à changer nos modes de vie", exhorte-t-il donc en s'appuyant abondamment sur les textes de ses prédécesseurs et sur la doctrine sociale de l’Eglise, sans rupture sur le fond. Selon le pape, " ces graves crises financières et économiques qui trouvent leur origine dans l’éloignement progressif de l’homme vis-à-vis de Dieu et la recherche avide des biens matériels " poussent de nombreuses personnes à " rechercher la satisfaction, le bonheur et la sécurité dans la consommation et dans le gain, au-delà de toute logique d’une saine économie ". S’en prenant aux très hauts revenus, il insiste donc sur la nécessité de mettre en œuvre " des politiques qui servent à atténuer une répartition inéquitable excessive du revenu ". Les biens privés comme biens communs A l’appui de sa démonstration, qui risque de lui attirer de nouvelles critiques de la part de certains milieux économiques, François livre un rapide rappel de la doctrine sociale de l’Eglise. " Nous ne devons pas oublier l’enseignement de l’Église sur ce qu’on appelle l’hypothèque sociale, sur la base de laquelle, comme le dit saint Thomas d’Aquin, il est permis et même nécessaire " que l’homme ait la propriété des biens " ; quant à l’usage, " il ne doit jamais tenir les choses qu’il possède comme n’appartenant qu’à lui, mais les regarder aussi comme communes, en ce sens qu’elles puissent profiter non seulement à lui mais aussi aux autres " ". Dans un long catalogue des maux du monde, que seule " la fraternité " peut résoudre, le pape François, dans la lignée de ses prédécesseurs, s’inquiète des " graves atteintes aux droits humains fondamentaux, surtout au droit à la vie et à la liberté religieuse ", du " tragique phénomène du trafic des êtres humains ", de la " mondialisation de l’indifférence ", du " drame déchirant de la drogue sur laquelle on s’enrichit dans le mépris des lois morales et civiles ", de " la dévastation des ressources naturelles et de la pollution ", de "la tragédie de l’exploitation dans le travail ", des " trafics illicites d’argent comme la spéculation financière ", de " la prostitution qui chaque jour fauche des victimes innocentes ", de " l’abomination du trafic des êtres humains, des délits et abus contre les mineurs, de " l’esclavage ", de " la tragédie souvent pas entendue des migrants sur lesquels on spécule indignement dans l’illégalité ", des " conditions inhumaines de tant de prisons, où le détenu est souvent réduit à un état sous-humain ", de " la persistance honteuse de la faim dans le monde ". S’appuyant sur la théologie, le pape considère que la " fraternité ", gage de " paix et de justice " s’apprend " au sein de la famille", soulignant au passage "les rôles responsables et complémentaires de tous ses membres, en particulier du père et de la mère ". Enfin, dans un contexte marqué par divers conflits qui mettent aux prises des groupes religieux à travers le monde, notamment en Centrafrique, le pape réitère la demande traditionnelle du Vatican pour " la non prolifération des armes et du désarmement de la part de tous, en commençant par le désarmement nucléaire et chimique ". Stéphanie Le Bars
A matéria da Economist, como sempre objetiva e levemente irônica, toca nos pontos essenciais do problema. O dinossauro estatal brasileiro, o seja, o Estado disfuncional, gasta muito mais (relativamente e proporcionalmente) consigo mesmo do que em investimentos produtivos, ou seja, paga regiamente a seus marajás e políticos (e juízes e outros apaniguados), do que trata de resolver os problemas básicos dos brasileiros: saúde, educação, infraestrutura, segurança pública, enfim, essas coisas básicas que deveriam compor o menu de qualquer candidato a estadista, ou pelo menos praticante da verdadeira economia política, segundo Adam Smith. Em lugar de tratar do básico, o dinossauro fica se metendo onde não deve -- inclusão social, digital, telefônica, sexual, e por aí vai -- em lugar de deixar os mercados resolverem a provisão de bens e serviços a custos razoáveis, que são absurdamente caros apenas porque esse mesmo dinossauro intrusivo pretende se meter onde não deve e com isso recolhe impostos extorsivos para serviços miseráveis. Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazil’s economy
Facing headwinds, Dilma changes course
The government announces plans to privatise infrastructure, and disappoints striking bureaucrats
Aug 18th 2012 | SÃO PAULO | from the print edition
IN RECENT years Brazil’s government has been able to avoid tough spending choices. Faster economic growth and falling tax evasion have translated into steadily rising revenues, allowing the federal government to hire more workers and pay them more, as well as to boost pensions and social transfers (see chart 1). But the fat times are over. In 2011 economic growth was only 2.7%; this year 2% looks optimistic. Tax revenues are rising only a little faster than inflation. The government can no longer satisfy everyone.
The noisiest demands come from public-sector workers. Teachers at federal universities have been on strike for three months; they have recently been joined by federal police, tax officials and staff at some regulatory agencies. Around 300,000 have walked out, almost half the federal workforce. Police have blocked roads and worked to rule at airports, causing travel chaos. Striking customs officials have left goods stuck in ports. The strikers’ demands would swell the federal government’s salary bill by up to 50%; inflation is running at 5.2%.
The president, Dilma Rousseff, has made clear her irritation. Most federal employees have had big pay increases since 2003, when her Workers’ Party (PT) came to power. On average, federal salaries are now around double the private-sector rate for equivalent jobs, points out Raul Velloso, a public-finance specialist in Brasília.
Ms Rousseff has said that any pay rises will be limited to the lowest paid, or tied to productivity—and that public money would be better directed to helping private companies avoid lay-offs. Strikers have been threatened with docked pay and state governments authorised to use their own staff as cover. All this marks a big shift: the strikes are being led by the Central Única dos Trabalhadores, a powerful group of unions with strong links to the PT.
Even if the president wins this battle of wills, it has already disrupted her plans. For months officials have been promising new measures to boost growth by cutting the custo Brasil, as the fearsome cost of doing business in the country is known. To turn an honest centavo,businesses must cope with awful roads, high energy costs, archaic labour laws and a Byzantine bureaucracy. But announcements were postponed as the government reworked its sums to find some crumbs for the strikers.
On August 15th, before an audience of business leaders at the presidential palace, Ms Rousseff unveiled plans for auctions to bring private firms into building and running infrastructure. Investors will be invited to build or upgrade and then operate toll roads totalling 7,500km (4,700 miles) and railways covering 10,000km. Investment will total some 133 billion reais ($66 billion), the government estimates, with almost half spent in the next five years. The auctions will start early next year. Among the projects to be handed over are some from the government’s flagship Growth Acceleration Programme (PAC) of hitherto public investment. Contracts for ports and airports will follow. Partnership with the private sector was the “thriftiest” approach, said the president: “We want better infrastructure to cut costs for businesses and taxpayers, and most of all to ensure more and better-paying jobs.”
Brazil’s current-account surplus relies on shipping out mountains of soya beans, iron ore and such like—the stuff is mostly moved along bumpy roads to antiquated, badly run ports, only to sit idle before loading, sometimes for weeks. Air passenger numbers have doubled in the past decade and are expected to do so again in the next. The country’s rail network is an eighth the size of that in the United States, and much of it is in terrible condition. Although federal spending on infrastructure has risen recently, excluding housing it is still only 1.1% of GDP.
Ms Rousseff, like her party, is instinctively hostile to anything akin to privatisation. But she has clearly concluded that without private-sector involvement, the infrastructure Brazil needs will never be built. Clearing such a backlog would strain any government—and in Brazil, where current spending has long crowded out investment, it is simply impossible. To make matters worse, around two-thirds of federal spending goes on pensions or other non-discretionary items, points out Mr Velloso (see chart 2). And even when the cash is there, an incompetent public sector often cannot get projects off the drawing board. Infraero, the state firm that mismanages Brazil’s airports, often fails to carry out budgeted improvements. Many PAC projects are running years behind schedule.
A policy shift away from short-term boosts to demand towards ambitious infrastructure upgrades should increase Brazil’s long-term growth, says Gray Newman of Morgan Stanley, an investment bank. But bringing in private firms cannot turn things around immediately. Cumbersome and illogical planning and environmental laws often halt infrastructure projects for months—or for ever. This week a federal court ordered a halt to work on Belo Monte, a controversial hydroelectric scheme in the Amazon, for example. And contracting out can work only if the PT overcomes its distaste for decent private profits: the many risks in project-execution mean that otherwise investors will stay away.
The other half of the government’s promised attack on the custo Brasil—modest but broad-based tax cuts—has still not been confirmed. It has hinted that a cut in payroll taxes granted last year to sectors heavily exposed to foreign competition, such as shoes and software, may be extended to all employers. Three or four of the 28 taxes on electricity could also be abolished, reducing some of the world’s highest bills by 10-20%.
Both moves would benefit consumers and cut business costs across the economy. They would also signal a change of direction: previous tax cuts have been narrow and temporary. But budgetary pressures may mean that they are watered down or further delayed. Brazilian business must hope Ms Rousseff holds her nerve.
Aqui temos novamente nosso tradicional professor de economia, PhD. em micro e macro, e em história econômica, Professor Hugo Chávez, mostrando a capitalistas perversos como se deve organizar uma economia...
Venezuela: empresarios rechazan y denunciarán la nueva ley socialista de precios
Infolatam/Efe Caracas, 21 de noviembre de 2011
Las claves
La nueva ley contempla un sistema de administración de precios de venta al público y márgenes de ganancia, así como una superintendencia que perseguirá y sancionará a los "especuladores".
Botti alertó del impacto en la generación de "empleos, en poder mantener empresas estables" y en la imposibilidad de generar "un mayor abastecimiento" de productos desde que a inicios de año se anunció que la ley estaba siendo redactada.
La patronal venezolana Fedecámaras reiteró su rechazo a la llamada Ley de Costos y Precios Justos que empezará a aplicarse este martes e indicó que presentará una denuncia ante los tribunales en demanda de su nulidad en fecha aún no fijada.
“Nunca se había planteado un esquema generalizado de control (estatal) de precios con sus márgenes de ganancias, un control completamente masivo para todos los actores económicos, formales o informales, grandes o pequeños”, declaró el presidente de Fedecámaras, Jorge Botti.
La ley de Precios, que fue sancionada a mediados de julio pero entrará en vigor de forma efectiva a partir de mañana, contempla un sistema de administración de precios de venta al público y márgenes de ganancia, así como una superintendencia que perseguirá y sancionará a los “especuladores”.
El pasado 27 de octubre el presidente Hugo Cháveztildó esta ley de “vital” para el socialismo, al señalar que había que “terminar de quebrar todas esas redes que todavía tiene la burguesía” y que son “vicios del capitalismo”.
Botti indicó que el directorio del gremio patronal ya autorizó a “ejercer acciones legales” para intentar anular la norma “por inconstitucional”.
Pero más importante que ello, dijo, es que la población sepa del peligro de un desabastecimiento de productos de consumo masivo.
“Es fundamental”, además, prosiguió, “que la sociedad entienda que lejos de favorecer la posibilidad de que el consumidor recupere su poder en la relación económica, lo que va a hacer (esta ley) es alejarlo” de tal privilegio.
Botti alertó del impacto en la generación de “empleos, en poder mantener empresas estables” y en la imposibilidad de generar “un mayor abastecimiento” de productos desde que a inicios de año se anunció que la ley estaba siendo redactada.
Por su parte, Karlin Granadillo, titular de la llamada Superintendencia de Costos y Precios, dijo a la emisoraUnión Radio que su despacho garantiza a los empresarios “que cubrirán sus costos y que el margen de ganancias (será suficiente) para sostener sus empresas”.
“En una primera etapa” la ley se aplicará, añadió, a “alimentos regulados, artículos de higiene y de la construcción, repuestos para vehículos, medicamentos y servicio de salud”, y desde 2012 a los productos de otras áreas.
Con ese fin, explicó, se abrirá un registro electrónico con el objetivo de que los empresarios informen de “la estructura de costos y de los precios que cubran esos costos”, para que la Superintendencia determine los precios máximos de venta al público de los productos.
