Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.
quinta-feira, 13 de dezembro de 2012
Reformar a Franca: uma missao (quase) impossivel? (Institut Montaigne)
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
L’Institut Montaigne formule 15 propositions pour réaliser 60 milliards d’économies.
En France, la dépense publique représente désormais l'équivalent de 56 % de la richesse nationale. Le président de la République a confirmé le mois dernier son engagement de réaliser 50 milliards d’euros d’économies sur l’ensemble du quinquennat et a prévu de réaliser un effort supplémentaire de 10 milliards pour financer la politique de compétitivité, soit au total 60 milliards d'euros (trois points de PIB).
Convaincu que le rétablissement des comptes publics et de notre compétitivité passe par une réduction de la dépense publique, l’Institut Montaigne publie aujourd’hui son rapport Redonner sens et efficacité à la dépense publique. 15 propositions pour 60 milliards d’économies. Il y présente sa feuille de route pour réaliser 57,2 milliards d’euros d’économies d’ici à 2017 tout en préservant la qualité de notre service public. Cet effort est ambitieux, mais raisonnable au regard des plans engagés ailleurs en Europe.
Depuis plusieurs décennies, l’action publique a trop souvent consisté à créer de nouvelles dépenses sans évaluer ni leur efficacité ni celle des dépenses déjà existantes. Les dépenses de prestations sociales et de subventions diverses au monde économique représentent plus de la moitié de la dépense publique et plus des trois quarts de son accroissement au cours des trente dernières années. Sur la même période, le niveau des recettes a été inférieur de trois à quatre points de PIB à celui des dépenses.
Cet écart jamais comblé entre dépenses et recettes a creusé la dette année après année, jusqu’à faire naître une nouvelle catégorie de dépenses, en passe de devenir la première de toutes et de paralyser l’action publique : la charge d’intérêts. La dépense publique est ainsi devenue sa propre ennemie.
Réduire le niveau des dépenses publiques n’est pas la seule voie permettant d’assainir durablement nos finances publiques, et plus tard, d’alléger la charge fiscale et sociale pour restaurer notre compétitivité. C'est cette réduction même qui redonnera son sens à la dépense publique et confiance dans l’action publique.
Si toutes ces réformes n'ont pas vocation à être mises en œuvre au même moment ni au même rythme, il est possible d'obtenir une réduction de la dépense publique suffisamment puissante pour désendetter le pays et dégager des marges de manœuvre pour les dépenses ou les réductions fiscales les plus essentielles.
PROPOSITIONS
Des propositions concrètes sont formulées dans le rapport pour :
-progresser dans l’évaluation et la gouvernance d’ensemble des finances publiques ;
- poursuivre les efforts de maîtrise des dépenses de fonctionnement et les élargir à toutes les administrations publiques (10 Md€) et engager une réduction des dépenses de personnel dans les trois fonctions publiques (9 Md€) ;
- réduire les dépenses d’intervention, notamment dans cinq domaines d’action publique, en en améliorant l’efficacité :
1/ Dans le domaine de l’assurance maladie (85 Md€ hors hôpitaux), il est possible de réaliser des économies de 15,5 Md€ sans réduire l’accès aux soins et sans avoir recours à des déremboursements. Cela suppose de se concentrer davantage sur l’amélioration du rapport coût/efficacité des soins.
2/ Concernant l’assurance chômage (30 Md€), des économies de l’ordre de 4,4 Md€ pourrait être dégagées, par exemple en rétablissant un régime d'allocations dégressives.
3/ En matière de logement, le volume atteint par la dépense publique (40 Md€) nous distingue de tous nos voisins. L’Institut Montaigne propose de revoir les dispositifs existants pour réaliser une économie de 9,4 Md€ tout en améliorant la situation des ménages les plus modestes.
4/ La politique familiale, à laquelle les Français sont très attachés, représente 60 Md€ hors quotient familial. Elle pourrait mieux atteindre ses objectifs tout en dégageant de substantielles économies, de l’ordre de 7 Md€.
5/ S’agissant des prestations sociales de solidarité, la suppression de la prime pour l’emploi dégagerait des marges de manœuvre pour revaloriser la partie du RSA visant à inciter au retour à l’emploi. Le reste de l’économie serait affecté au désendettement. Au total, l’économie s’élèverait à 1,4 Md€.
Retrouvez l’intégralité des propositions opérationnelles dans le rapport ainsi que sa synthèse sur notre site internet.
>> Télécharger le rapport
>> Télécharger la synthèse
>> Télécharger les propositions opérationnelles
Institut Montaigne / 38, rue Jean Mermoz / 75008 Paris
Tél. +33 (0)1 58 18 39 29 / Fax. +33 (0)1 58 18 39 28
Nous écrire : info@institutmontaigne.org
Noticias de um duopolio: as companhias aereas...
Rio-Fortaleza a R$ 4,4 mil – via Buenos Aires
Duopólio TAM-GOL causa estrago no bolso de quem deseja passar o Réveillon no Rio ou Natal
Melhor nadando
Os manauaras sofrerão. Manaus-Rio pela TAM sairá a R$ 4.988 e taxas, com duração de 15 horas (1 parada) – um voo direto dura 4h. A Gol cobrará R$ 3.367, com 9h de voo.
Volta ao mundo
Manaus-Natal pela Azul, com três paradas (Belém, Recife e Fortaleza) ficará a R$ 4.033 em 9h de voo. Rio-Fernando de Noronha com duas paradas e 10h custará R$ 3.220.
CPI no Hangar
O deputado Osmar Junior (PcdoB-PI) trabalha para que o próximo presidente da Câmara abra a CPI das Aéreas. Dia desses, Teresina-Brasília saiu a R$ 3.100 pela TAM.
Autoritarios querem controlar a internet (e o Brasil?)
Editorial
Global Internet Diplomacy
The New York Times, December 12, 2012
A version of this editorial appeared in print on December 13, 2012, on page A34 of the New York edition with the headline: Global Internet Diplomacy.
Related
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Drafters of Communications Treaty Are Split on Issue of Internet Governance (December 7, 2012)
-
Integrity of Internet Is Crux of Global Conference (November 28, 2012)
Related in Opinion
-
Op-Ed Contributor: Hands Off the Internet! (December 7, 2012)
For Op-Ed, follow @nytopinion and to hear from the editorial page editor, Andrew Rosenthal, follow @andyrNYT.
O agronegocio brasileiro: relatorio oficial sobre comercio exterior
Governo publica estudo sobre comércio exterior do agronegócio brasileiro | |||
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Candidaturas na OMC: dilemas do Brasil - Marcelo de Paiva Abreu
Uma lagrima para... Albert Hirschman (2) - Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Transcrevo abaixo o texto que preparei para ocasião, na forma não revista.
Eu escolhi diversos títulos dos livros de Hirschman, para rechear esse discurso.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
715. “In Praise of a Wise Man”, Washington, 22 outubro 1999, 3 pp. Discurso em honra do Prof. Albert Hirschman, por ocasião da entrega das insígnias do Ordem do Cruzeiro do Sul, lido pelo Emb. Rubens Antonio Barbosa na Embaixada em 29.10.1999.
Uma lagrima para...Albert O. Hirschman 1915–2012 (1) - Princeton University
Albert O. Hirschman 1915–2012
“Albert Hirschman developed innovative methods for promoting economic and social growth through his study of the intellectual underpinnings of economic policies and political democracy,” said Robbert Dijkgraaf, Director and Leon Levy Professor at the Institute. “An impassioned observer who sought to understand the world as well as change it, Albert will be sorely missed by the Institute community and by the international community at large where his voice has influenced and guided advancement for more than half a century.”
Over the course of his long and extraordinarily productive career, Hirschman earned a reputation for progressive, lucid and brilliantly argued contributions to economics, the history of ideas and the social sciences. He explored a vast range of topics, inspired by the complexity of human behavior and social reality rather than by traditional economic models. He applied a subtle and iconoclastic perspective to reappraising conventional wisdom, resulting in original work that was a constant stimulus to critical thought in the social sciences. In a 1993 interview with Carmine Donzelli, Hirschman noted, “The idea of trespassing is basic to my thinking. Attempts to confine me to a specific area make me unhappy. When it seems that an idea can be verified in another field, then I am happy to venture in this direction. I believe this is a simple and useful way of discovering ‘related’ topics.”
Born in Berlin on April 7, 1915, Hirschman left Germany in 1933 for France, where he studied economics, finance and accounting. In 1935, he received a one-year fellowship at the London School of Economics. From London he went to Barcelona to fight in the Spanish Civil War, saying, “I could not just sit and look on without doing anything.”
He completed his studies in Italy at the University of Trieste, where he received a doctorate in economics in 1938. Racial laws enacted by Mussolini compelled Hirschman to return to Paris, where he produced his first economic writings and reports, marking the beginning of a prolific publication record. In his numerous books and articles since that time, he continued to explore the complex relationships between economics, politics, social structures, values and behavior.
Hirschman volunteered for service in the French Army and was enlisted in 1939. With the collapse of the French Army in 1940, he fled to the south of France. There he met Varian Fry, an American who had come to Marseille to organize a rescue operation to try to save the lives of endangered refugees, including Marc Chagall, Max Ernst, André Breton and Marcel Duchamp. Fry needed a close assistant, and he found one in Hirschman, whom Fry dubbed “Beamish” for his unfailing optimism during this especially dark and dangerous time. Hirschman traded currency on the black market, obtained forged documents and passports, devised ways to transmit messages by concealing strips of paper in toothpaste tubes and arranged for ships to transport—often illegally—many of the refugees. He personally explored escape routes over the Pyrenees into Spain. Eventually, the police found Beamish’s trail, so Hirschman joined the refugee flow across the mountains. By the time the operation closed down in September 1941, when the French expelled Varian Fry, his group had helped some 2,000 people escape from France. The United States government recognized the Varian Fry group in 1991 for its heroic accomplishments.
Hirschman immigrated to the United States in 1941 with the help of a Rockefeller Foundation fellowship at the University of California, Berkeley. At Berkeley, he met and married Sarah Chapro, a fellow European émigré who was earning her master’s degree in French literature. In March 1943, Hirschman enlisted in the U.S. Army and was sent to North Africa and Italy as part of the Office of Strategic Services and served as an interpreter for a German general in one of the earliest World War II criminal trials. With the war’s end, the Hirschmans settled in Washington, where Albert worked for the Federal Reserve Board on European reconstruction, focusing on new initiatives within the Marshall Plan agency.
In 1952, they moved to South America, where Hirschman worked as an economic adviser to the country of Colombia. The subsequent four years there inspired his vision of economic development as a sequential and unbalanced process. In Colombia, he encountered a major intellectual challenge: not so much the problem of poverty itself, but questions about the reasons for poverty and the search for strategies to diminish its effects. This led to Hirschman’s growing realization that economics needed to draw on moral imperatives and goals as well as on a complex and ever-changing reality. Hirschman returned to the United States in 1956 and began his academic career, which included positions at Yale, Columbia and Harvard Universities. In 1974, he became a Professor at the Institute, where he joined Clifford Geertz in creating the School of Social Science. He became Professor Emeritus in 1985. Among his pioneering books are The Strategy of Economic Development (1958); Journeys Toward Progress: Studies of Economic Policy-Making in Latin America (1963); Exit, Voice and Loyalty: Responses to Decline in Firms, Organizations and States (1970); The Passions and the Interests: Political Arguments for Capitalism before Its Triumph (1977); and The Rhetoric of Reaction: Perversity, Futility, Jeopardy (1991). Throughout his career, he authored dozens of illuminating essays, which provided critical commentary on economic change and growth in Latin America as well as on the shifting landscape of the social sciences.
It was at the Institute that he and Professor Geertz created a unique forum for the social sciences. In seeking to bridge the divides between increasingly professionalized disciplines, they favored a more “interpretive style,” a term which eventually acquired multiple meanings—not all of them consistent with Hirschman and Geertz’s original purpose to explore the interaction between culture, politics and economics. “There is no doubt,” says Jeremy Adelman, Princeton University historian and author of a forthcoming biography of Hirschman, “that Hirschman’s time at the Institute allowed him to become one of the great sages of our times. His unusual background, combination of intellectual traditions and ironic disposition were combined to yield some of the classic works of the social sciences.”
Joan Wallach Scott, Harold F. Linder Professor in the School of Social Science, added, “Albert’s time at the Institute not only advanced his own work, but had a remarkable effect on the scholars who came into contact with him. His generosity, his wry humor and vivid intelligence, his gift for sociability and his genuine interest in the thoughts of others inspired generations of social scientists to think outside the boundaries of the received wisdom in their fields.”
Hirschman was widely recognized for his work and was the recipient of many prizes and honors, including the Talcott Parsons Prize for Social Science, presented by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 1983; the Kalman H. Silvert Award of the Latin American Studies Association in 1986; the Toynbee Prize in 1997; the Thomas Jefferson Medal of the American Philosophical Society in 1998; and the Benjamin E. Lippincott Award of the American Political Science Association in 2003. In 2007, the Social Science Research Council established an annual prize in Hirschman’s honor. The Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University selected Hirschman as a recipient of the 2013 Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought for his critical role in crossing disciplines to forge new theories and policies to promote international development. In honor of Hirschman’s exceptional contributions to economic thought, the Institute created the Albert O. Hirschman Professorship in the School of Social Science in 1998.
Hirschman was a member of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Philosophical Society and the National Academy of Sciences and was named a Distinguished Fellow of the American Economic Association. He was a foreign member of the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei and a Corresponding Fellow of the British Academy. He received the Order of San Carlos from Colombia in 1995, the National Order of the Southern Cross from Brazil in 2000, conferred by his long-time friend and collaborator, President Fernando Henrique Cardoso and the Order of Bernardo O’Higgins from Chile in 2005.
Hirschman is survived by his daughter, Katia Salomon of Paris; two sons-in-law, Alain Salomon and Peter Gourevitch; four grandchildren, Lara Salomon Pawlicz, Grégoire Salomon and Alex and Nick Hirschman Gourevitch; and nine great grandchildren, Hannah, Rebecca, Isaac, Eva, Rachel, Olivia, Ezra, Theodore and Zackary. He was predeceased by a daughter, Lisa Hirschman Gourevitch, in 1999, and by his wife of 70 years, Sarah Hirschman, founder of People & Stories/Gente y Cuentos, in January of 2012.
The Institute for Advanced Study is one of the world’s leading centers for theoretical research and intellectual inquiry. The Institute exists to encourage and support fundamental research in the sciences and humanities—the original, often speculative thinking that produces advances in knowledge that change the way we understand the world. Work at the Institute takes place in four Schools: Historical Studies, Mathematics, Natural Sciences and Social Science. It provides for the mentoring of scholars by a permanent Faculty of no more than 28, and it offers all who work there the freedom to undertake research that will make significant contributions in any of the broad range of fields in the sciences and humanities studied at the Institute.
The Institute, founded in 1930, is a private, independent academic institution located in Princeton, New Jersey. Its more than 6,000 former Members hold positions of intellectual and scientific leadership throughout the academic world. Some 33 Nobel Laureates and 38 out of 52 Fields Medalists, as well as many winners of the Wolf or MacArthur prizes, have been affiliated with the Institute.
[1] https://www.ias.edu/sites/default/files/images/Albert-Hirschman_byHernanDiaz_0.jpg