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segunda-feira, 28 de outubro de 2024

A Georgia firmemente nos braços de Putin - Bloomberg’s Balance of Power

 Não creio que a oposição pró-Europa consiga reverter mais uma eleição fraudada em favor da Rússia na Georfia, que já sofreu intervenção armada direta em 2008.


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In November 2003, protests over disputed parliamentary elections in Georgia spiraled into the pro-Western Rose Revolution. Today may show whether the pendulum is swinging back.

After denouncing weekend elections won by the ruling party as rigged, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, whose powers are largely ceremonial, has called for protests to safeguard the country’s “European future.” She termed the election a “Russian special operation” to restore control over the country.

The Georgian Dream party, in power for 12 years, drew intense recent criticism for passing a “foreign agent” law that the US and the European Union said emulated one Russian President Vladimir Putin used to crush democratic dissent.

A demonstration against the “foreign influence” law in Tbilisi on April 16. Photographer: Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images

Georgia has sought EU and NATO membership since the 2003 revolt, which was followed by pro-democracy “color revolutions” in other former Soviet republics including Ukraine. Moldova’s 2009 “Twitter” revolution was also sparked by disputed parliamentary elections.

Putin was convinced the US and its EU allies were ousting Kremlin-friendly regimes to tilt Moscow’s former satellites toward the West.

Now he’s fighting a war to subjugate Ukraine. Moldova’s pro-European President Maia Sandu faces a challenging election runoff against a Moscow-backed opponent on Sunday.

Georgian Dream has drawn closer to Moscow even as it says it’s still committed to EU integration. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, widely seen as Russia’s closest ally in the EU, congratulated the party on winning only minutes after voting closed and may visit Georgia as soon as today.

Brussels suspended membership talks over the “foreign agent” law and Washington is reviewing relations with Georgia. After the Rose Revolution, they bet on Georgia as a vital gateway for energy and trade routes between Europe and Asia that bypass Russia.

Today’s protests will show the strength of popular will to defend Georgia’s pro-Western path — or whether Putin has successfully played the long game to restore Russia’s influence.

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