The Humbling of Iran - Golnar Motevalli (Bloomberg Balance of Power)

The Humbling of Iran

Golnar Motevalli

Bloomberg Balance of Power

December 10, 2024

Things were looking bad for Iran even before a group of rebel fighters marched on Damascus and forced long-time Tehran ally Bashar al-Assad to flee the Syrian capital.

In a matter of days, the Islamic Republic had lost yet another major branch of its so-called Axis of Resistance. Assad’s fall comes after the weakening at the hand of Israel of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

It all means that Iran is likely, for the time being, to reel back its longstanding strategy of spreading military and ideological influence across the Arab world.

In his first statement on Assad’s ouster, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insisted today that his country is “powerful and strong” and vowed to replenish and expand its network of allies.

That’s just before the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with a promise of reviving his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

The government in Tehran is left trying to figure out how to respond, and questions are being asked about the vulnerability of its leadership.

It’s already facing significant internal dissent and economic pain. That strain is in part because the last time Trump was in office he jettisoned a landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and clamped down on Iran’s economy.

Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled he wants to revive a form of that deal, seeing it as key to the Islamic Republic’s survival.

But if things go awry, Iran may follow an old pattern of escalating its atomic activities, raising concerns that it may try to develop a nuclear weapon. That’s something both the US and an increasingly emboldened Israel have vowed will never be allowed to happen.

As the events in Syria have shown, with the toppling of a leader only recently seen as untouchable, nothing can be ruled out across a persistently volatile region. — Golnar Motevalli

Assad and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met in Tehran in May. Source: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP Images

Iran awaits Trump - Golnar Motevalli (Bloomberg’s Balance of Power)

Iran awaits Trump

Golnar Motevalli

Bloomberg’s Balance of Power

November 25, 2024

Few countries will be as troubled about Donald Trump’s return to the White House as Iran.

During his first term, the Islamic Republic became a primary target of Trump’s foreign-policy team, which quickly set about dismantling the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, triggering a crisis in the Persian Gulf that almost led to war.

This time around, Trump faces a Middle East transformed — one that will be far less accommodating to a reiteration of his so-called “maximum pressure” policy against Iran. It’s also engulfed in violent conflict involving his closest ally in the region, Israel.

While Trump had the backing of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Iran in his first term, Iran has been busy mending bridges with its Gulf Arab neighbors.

The government in Tehran has developed a level of resilience to the uncertainty that Trump brings — there is little left, materially, that he can sanction. Tehran has also been moving closer to Russia and China.

It’s unclear what Trump has in mind for Iran — some of his cabinet picks indicate that he wants to replay maximum pressure, others signal a disdain for foreign intervention and conflict — but Tehran can’t withstand much more turmoil.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given the nod to a reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to seek sanctions relief and negotiations with the US.

Iran’s population has been buckling under the pressure of both sanctions and an increasingly authoritarian theocracy for some time. Khamenei’s system has never been more unpopular.

With memories of the 2022 uprising still raw, Tehran can’t afford to ignore Trump. But the incoming US president, too, will have to recognize that the region has changed.

 Golnar Motevalli

Uma visão menos laudatória da cúpula do G20 no Rio de Janeiro: Flavia Krause-Jackson Bloomberg: Balance of Power

Uma visão menos laudatória da cúpula do G20 no Rio de Janeiro:

Bloomberg: Balance of Power
Flavia Krause-Jackson
November 19, 2024

As the caipirinhas flowed and samba dancers swayed for VIP guests gathered for the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janiero, the party mood suddenly turned sour.

The summit communique popped up online after the impatient host, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, abruptly shut down behind-the-scenes squabbling among G-20 leaders over language characterizing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.

That left a bitter taste, particularly among the US and its allies, at a summit characterized by disorganization and division among the leaders of the world’s largest economies.

What had been billed as a moment for “the West and the Rest” to show unity only served to display how quickly the guardrails are coming off the international rules-based order.

North Koreans are fighting in Europe for the first time. Israel is resisting US efforts to halt fighting with Hezbollah and Hamas. China regularly conducts military exercises surrounding Taiwan. Nuclear war is suddenly a risk amid surging tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

And that’s even before Donald Trump returns to the White House.

The sense of global disorder played out vividly in the traditional “family photo.” US President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Italian premier Giorgia Meloni were missing when the picture was taken on the summit’s first day, so Lula called a re-shoot today.

They were in the picture this time, though the fake background in lieu of Rio’s stunning Sugarloaf Mountain in the first shot only reinforced the impression that summit unity was a facade.

Trump’s looming return hung over the proceedings, amid speculation about what kind of role the US would play in world affairs in his presidency.

Most comfortable were leaders of the Global South. India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping smiled and chatted with ease.

With Trump threatening tariffs on them, though, it felt a bit like the calm before the storm.

A Georgia firmemente nos braços de Putin - Bloomberg’s Balance of Power

 Não creio que a oposição pró-Europa consiga reverter mais uma eleição fraudada em favor da Rússia na Georfia, que já sofreu intervenção armada direta em 2008.

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. In November 2003, protests over disputed parliamentary elections in Georgia spiraled into the pro-Western Rose Revolution. Today may show whether the pendulum is swinging back. After denouncing weekend elections won by the ruling party as rigged, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, whose powers are largely ceremonial, has called for protests to safeguard the country’s “European future.” She termed the election a “Russian special operation” to restore control over the country. The Georgian Dream party, in power for 12 years, drew intense recent criticism for passing a “foreign agent” law that the US and the European Union said emulated one Russian President Vladimir Putin used to crush democratic dissent. A demonstration against the “foreign influence” law in Tbilisi on April 16. Photographer: Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images Georgia has sought EU and NATO membership since the 2003 revolt, which was followed by pro-democracy “color revolutions” in other former Soviet republics including Ukraine. Moldova’s 2009 “Twitter” revolution was also sparked by disputed parliamentary elections. Putin was convinced the US and its EU allies were ousting Kremlin-friendly regimes to tilt Moscow’s former satellites toward the West. Now he’s fighting a war to subjugate Ukraine. Moldova’s pro-European President Maia Sandu faces a challenging election runoff against a Moscow-backed opponent on Sunday. Georgian Dream has drawn closer to Moscow even as it says it’s still committed to EU integration. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, widely seen as Russia’s closest ally in the EU, congratulated the party on winning only minutes after voting closed and may visit Georgia as soon as today. Brussels suspended membership talks over the “foreign agent” law and Washington is reviewing relations with Georgia. After the Rose Revolution, they bet on Georgia as a vital gateway for energy and trade routes between Europe and Asia that bypass Russia. Today’s protests will show the strength of popular will to defend Georgia’s pro-Western path — or whether Putin has successfully played the long game to restore Russia’s influence. — Anthony Halpin

A tragédia do Libano sob o Hezbollah - Balance of Power (Bloomberg)

 

Welcome to Balance of Power, bringing you the latest in global politics. If you haven’t yet, sign up here. For months, world powers have been increasingly concerned about the prospect of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah. Those fears have become far more justified in recent days: Israel escalated its campaign against the Iran-backed militant group with a massive bombardment of its positions in Lebanon yesterday. The strikes killed almost 500 people — including around 100 women and children — and wounded 1,650, according to Lebanese officials. Civilians are panicking in the south of the country and the Bekaa region in the north-east, with thousands of cars clogging roads to the capital, Beirut. Israel says it had no choice but to act more aggressively after months of diplomacy — including by the US, France and Germany — failed to get Hezbollah to stop its missile and drone attacks. Those are being carried out in support of Hamas in the devastating war in Gaza. Last week, Israel made enabling the return of tens of thousands of displaced civilians to the country’s north an official war objective. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says that can’t happen unless Hezbollah moves its fighters back around 20 miles (32 kilometers) from the border with Lebanon. He seems to hope Israel’s aerial campaign will be enough to achieve that without a ground offensive, which his government knows could bog down its troops for months, if not longer, and come at a huge human and economic cost. It could also trigger a fierce retaliation from Hezbollah. Iran would likely act if it felt the existence of Hezbollah — its most important proxy group — as a military force was in question. The US, for its part, may have to back Israel even more than it’s done for the war in Gaza. There is a growing danger that the current clashes will spiral into the regional war the rest of the world is so keen to avoid. — Paul Wallace

Balance of Power: EUA desejam que a China reveja a sua política industrial e "excesso' de exportações - Jenni Marsh (Bloomberg)

 Balance of Power 

Bloomberg, April 8, 2024

President Xi Jinping’s vision for powering China’s economy through a major manufacturing drive is raising tensions with some of his nation’s biggest trading partners.

The domestic need for growth means he’s unlikely to change course.

During her visit to China this week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen implored top Chinese leaders to rethink their industrial strategy, saying the Asian nation was producing more goods than the world could bear.

The trained economist advised policymakers to improve “retirement security” and “affordable education” to reduce household savings and encourage domestic spending, in a bid to rebalance the world’s second-largest economy.

Essentially, she proposed an entire rethink of their economic strategy.

The leadership in Beijing well knows the problems, and even outlined overcapacity as an issue in a major policy document earlier this year.

But an entrenched crisis in the property sector that once drove about a quarter of annual expansion means China can’t afford to abruptly shift plans if it wants to hit an ambitious growth target of around 5% this year.

President Joe Biden’s campaign to severely restrict China’s access to cutting-edge semiconductors only adds to the impetus. China has made technological self-sufficiency a national priority, as it tries to advance domestic chip design and manufacturing to protect against threats from US policy.

With a US presidential election looming in America this November, Beijing is facing increasing pressure from the world’s biggest economy with Republican contender Donald Trump threatening 60% tariffs on China.

As Xi tries to challenge the US-led world order, his main partner in that mission is President Vladimir Putin.

The Chinese leader’s continued support for his Russian counterpart might be leading to more tension with the US, but it’s another area where he’s unlikely to back down. 

Jenni Marsh

A Bloomberg sobre a guerra na Ucrânia: o poder da artilharia

 

Russia continues to wreak havoc on Ukraine as temperatures there hover below freezing, with missile strikes today further damaging energy infrastructure and making it harder for people to access power, heating and water. As the war heads toward its 11th month, it’s also prompting rapid reassessments elsewhere about the way militaries are funded and the equipment they have now and will need in future. Tony Capaccio and Courtney McBride report how the Pentagon is a case in point. For decades it has struggled to make procurement more agile, able to respond to changing threats and demands. It has also sought to get weapons-makers to commit to longer-term contracts. Key reading: War in Ukraine Hinges on Who Gets More Rockets and Shells First A Million Shells and More: Pentagon Revs Up Ukraine Weapons Aid Here’s How the Pentagon Is Speeding Up Weapons Contracts EU Nations Back Russia Sanctions on Drone Imports, Banks Follow our rolling coverage of the war here. The US is among the allies that have sent masses of weaponry to Ukraine — from missile-defense systems to artillery shells — and is staring at dwindling stockpiles with anxiety. Countries in Europe face a similar dilemma: how to keep supplying Ukraine when they are running low on weapons. That’s especially the case because the conflict has shown that 21st century wars are not just about very high-tech equipment. Yes, Russian missiles are having an impact and testing Ukraine’s defenses, with the US gearing up potentially to send Patriot batteries to Kyiv. But one of the most efficient weapons so far has been combining old-fashioned artillery with a drone for pinpoint accuracy. As Marc Champion wrote this week, there has been a heavy use of artillery by both sides — the Royal United Services Institute puts it in excess of 24,000 shells fired per day, at times much more. Ukraine is burning through 100,000 shells per month. The US produces far less than that right now. The head of Estonia’s defense intelligence center estimates Russia still has about 10 million artillery shells in stock. That all points to the war dragging on for a while. In the end, who has the advantage in the spring may come down to who has the greater arsenal by then to hand. — Rosalind Mathieson