The Humbling of Iran - Golnar Motevalli (Bloomberg Balance of Power)

The Humbling of Iran

Golnar Motevalli

Bloomberg Balance of Power

December 10, 2024

Things were looking bad for Iran even before a group of rebel fighters marched on Damascus and forced long-time Tehran ally Bashar al-Assad to flee the Syrian capital.

In a matter of days, the Islamic Republic had lost yet another major branch of its so-called Axis of Resistance. Assad’s fall comes after the weakening at the hand of Israel of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

It all means that Iran is likely, for the time being, to reel back its longstanding strategy of spreading military and ideological influence across the Arab world.

In his first statement on Assad’s ouster, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insisted today that his country is “powerful and strong” and vowed to replenish and expand its network of allies.

That’s just before the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with a promise of reviving his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.

The government in Tehran is left trying to figure out how to respond, and questions are being asked about the vulnerability of its leadership.

It’s already facing significant internal dissent and economic pain. That strain is in part because the last time Trump was in office he jettisoned a landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and clamped down on Iran’s economy.

Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled he wants to revive a form of that deal, seeing it as key to the Islamic Republic’s survival.

But if things go awry, Iran may follow an old pattern of escalating its atomic activities, raising concerns that it may try to develop a nuclear weapon. That’s something both the US and an increasingly emboldened Israel have vowed will never be allowed to happen.

As the events in Syria have shown, with the toppling of a leader only recently seen as untouchable, nothing can be ruled out across a persistently volatile region. — Golnar Motevalli

Assad and Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei met in Tehran in May. Source: Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader/AP Images

Iran awaits Trump - Golnar Motevalli (Bloomberg’s Balance of Power)

Iran awaits Trump

Golnar Motevalli

Bloomberg’s Balance of Power

November 25, 2024

Few countries will be as troubled about Donald Trump’s return to the White House as Iran.

During his first term, the Islamic Republic became a primary target of Trump’s foreign-policy team, which quickly set about dismantling the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, triggering a crisis in the Persian Gulf that almost led to war.

This time around, Trump faces a Middle East transformed — one that will be far less accommodating to a reiteration of his so-called “maximum pressure” policy against Iran. It’s also engulfed in violent conflict involving his closest ally in the region, Israel.

While Trump had the backing of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Iran in his first term, Iran has been busy mending bridges with its Gulf Arab neighbors.

The government in Tehran has developed a level of resilience to the uncertainty that Trump brings — there is little left, materially, that he can sanction. Tehran has also been moving closer to Russia and China.

It’s unclear what Trump has in mind for Iran — some of his cabinet picks indicate that he wants to replay maximum pressure, others signal a disdain for foreign intervention and conflict — but Tehran can’t withstand much more turmoil.

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given the nod to a reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to seek sanctions relief and negotiations with the US.

Iran’s population has been buckling under the pressure of both sanctions and an increasingly authoritarian theocracy for some time. Khamenei’s system has never been more unpopular.

With memories of the 2022 uprising still raw, Tehran can’t afford to ignore Trump. But the incoming US president, too, will have to recognize that the region has changed.

 Golnar Motevalli