Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.
Things werelooking bad for Iraneven before a group of rebel fighters marched on Damascus and forced long-time Tehran ally Bashar al-Assad to flee the Syrian capital.
In a matter of days, the Islamic Republichad lostyet another major branch of its so-called Axis of Resistance. Assad’s fall comes afterthe weakeningat the hand of Israel of Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.
It all means that Iran is likely, for the time being, to reel back its longstanding strategy of spreading military and ideological influence across the Arab world.
In his first statement on Assad’s ouster, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insisted today that his country is “powerful and strong” and vowed to replenish and expand its network of allies.
That’s just before the return of Donald Trump to the White House, with a promise of reviving his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran.
The government in Tehran is left trying to figure out how to respond, and questions are being asked about the vulnerability of its leadership.
It’s already facingsignificant internal dissentand economic pain. That strain is in part because the last time Trump was in office he jettisoned a landmark 2015 nuclear deal with world powers and clamped down on Iran’s economy.
Reformist President Masoud Pezeshkian has signaled he wants to revive a form of that deal, seeing it as key to the Islamic Republic’s survival.
But if things go awry, Iran may follow an old pattern of escalating its atomic activities, raising concerns that it may try to develop a nuclear weapon. That’s something both the US and an increasingly emboldened Israel have vowed will never be allowed to happen.
Few countries will be as troubled about Donald Trump’s return to the White House as Iran.
During his first term, the Islamic Republic became a primary target of Trump’s foreign-policy team, which quickly set about dismantling the landmark 2015 nuclear deal between Tehran and world powers, triggering a crisis in the Persian Gulf that almost led to war.
This time around, Trump faces a Middle East transformed — one that will be far less accommodating to a reiteration of his so-called “maximum pressure” policy against Iran. It’s also engulfed in violent conflict involving his closest ally in the region, Israel.
While Trump had the backing of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Iran in his first term, Iran has been busy mending bridges with its Gulf Arab neighbors.
The government in Tehran has developed a level of resilience to the uncertainty that Trump brings — there is little left, materially, that he can sanction. Tehran has also been moving closer to Russia and China.
It’s unclear what Trump has in mind for Iran — some of his cabinet picks indicate that he wants to replay maximum pressure, others signal a disdain for foreign intervention and conflict — but Tehran can’t withstand much more turmoil.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has given the nod to a reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, to seek sanctions relief and negotiations with the US.
Iran’s population has been buckling under the pressure of both sanctions and an increasingly authoritarian theocracy for some time. Khamenei’s system has never been more unpopular.
With memories of the 2022 uprising still raw, Tehran can’t afford to ignore Trump. But the incoming US president, too, will have to recognize that the region has changed.
Uma visão menos laudatória da cúpula do G20 no Rio de Janeiro:
Bloomberg: Balance of Power Flavia Krause-Jackson November 19, 2024
As the caipirinhas flowed and samba dancers swayed for VIP guests gathered for the Group of 20 summit in Rio de Janiero, the party mood suddenly turned sour.
The summit communique popped up online after the impatient host, Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, abruptly shut down behind-the-scenes squabbling among G-20 leaders over language characterizing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East.
That left a bitter taste, particularly among the US and its allies, at a summit characterized by disorganization and division among the leaders of the world’s largest economies.
What had been billed as a moment for “the West and the Rest” to show unity only served to display how quickly the guardrails are coming off the international rules-based order.
North Koreans are fighting in Europe for the first time. Israel is resisting US efforts to halt fighting with Hezbollah and Hamas. China regularly conducts military exercises surrounding Taiwan. Nuclear war is suddenly a risk amid surging tensions over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
And that’s even before Donald Trump returns to the White House.
The sense of global disorder played out vividly in the traditional “family photo.” US President Joe Biden, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Italian premier Giorgia Meloni were missing when the picture was taken on the summit’s first day, so Lula called a re-shoot today.
They were in the picture this time, though the fake background in lieu of Rio’s stunning Sugarloaf Mountain in the first shot only reinforced the impression that summit unity was a facade.
Trump’s looming return hung over the proceedings, amid speculation about what kind of role the US would play in world affairs in his presidency.
Most comfortable were leaders of the Global South. India’s Narendra Modi and China’s Xi Jinping smiled and chatted with ease.
With Trump threatening tariffs on them, though, it felt a bit like the calm before the storm.
Não creio que a oposição pró-Europa consiga reverter mais uma eleição fraudada em favor da Rússia na Georfia, que já sofreu intervenção armada direta em 2008.
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In November 2003, protests over disputed parliamentary elections in Georgia spiraled into the pro-Western Rose Revolution. Today may show whether the pendulum is swinging back.
After denouncing weekend elections won by the ruling party as rigged, Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili, whose powers are largely ceremonial, has called for protests to safeguard the country’s “European future.” She termed the election a “Russian special operation” to restore control over the country.
The Georgian Dream party, in power for 12 years, drew intense recent criticism for passing a “foreign agent” law that the US and the European Union said emulated one Russian President Vladimir Putin used to crush democratic dissent.
A demonstration against the “foreign influence” law in Tbilisi on April 16.Photographer: Vano Shlamov/AFP/Getty Images
Georgia has sought EU and NATO membership since the 2003 revolt, which was followed by pro-democracy “color revolutions” in other former Soviet republics including Ukraine. Moldova’s 2009 “Twitter” revolution was also sparked by disputed parliamentary elections.
Putin was convinced the US and its EU allies were ousting Kremlin-friendly regimes to tilt Moscow’s former satellites toward the West.
Now he’s fighting a war to subjugate Ukraine. Moldova’s pro-European President Maia Sandu faces a challenging election runoff against a Moscow-backed opponent on Sunday.
Georgian Dream has drawn closer to Moscow even as it says it’s still committed to EU integration. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, widely seen as Russia’s closest ally in the EU, congratulated the party on winning only minutes after voting closed and may visit Georgia as soon as today.
Brussels suspended membership talks over the “foreign agent” law and Washington is reviewing relations with Georgia. After the Rose Revolution, they bet on Georgia as a vital gateway for energy and trade routes between Europe and Asia that bypass Russia.
Today’s protests will show the strength of popular will to defend Georgia’s pro-Western path — or whether Putin has successfully played the long game to restore Russia’s influence. — Anthony Halpin
President Xi Jinping’s vision for powering China’s economy through a major manufacturing drive is raising tensions with some of his nation’s biggest trading partners.
The domestic need for growth means he’s unlikely to change course.
During her visit to China this week, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen implored top Chinese leaders to rethink their industrial strategy, saying the Asian nation was producing more goods than the world could bear.
The trained economist advised policymakers to improve “retirement security” and “affordable education” to reduce household savings and encourage domestic spending, in a bid to rebalance the world’s second-largest economy.
Essentially, she proposed an entire rethink of their economic strategy.
The leadership in Beijing well knows the problems, and even outlined overcapacity as an issue in a major policy document earlier this year.
But an entrenched crisis in the property sector that once drove about a quarter of annual expansion means China can’t afford to abruptly shift plans if it wants to hit an ambitious growth target of around 5% this year.
President Joe Biden’s campaign to severely restrict China’s access to cutting-edge semiconductors only adds to the impetus. China has made technological self-sufficiency a national priority, as it tries to advance domestic chip design and manufacturing to protect against threats from US policy.
With a US presidential election looming in America this November, Beijing is facing increasing pressure from the world’s biggest economy with Republican contender Donald Trump threatening 60% tariffs on China.
As Xi tries to challenge the US-led world order, his main partner in that mission is President Vladimir Putin.
Daniel Kahneman, psicólogo que revolucionou a economia, morre aos 90 anos
Vencedor do Prêmio Nobel ajudou a dar origem ao campo da economia comportamental junto do colega Amos Tversky; pesquisas mostraram a relevância dos vieses em tomadas de decisões, que afetam escolhas financeiras
Stephen Miller
Bloomberg, 27/03/2024
Daniel Kahneman, um psicólogo cujo trabalho lançou dúvidas sobre a racionalidade da tomada de decisões, ajudou a originar o campo da economia comportamental e lhe rendeu um Prêmio Nobel, faleceu. Ele tinha 90 anos.
Ele morreu nesta quarta-feira (27), relatou o Washington Post, citando sua enteada, Deborah Treisman, editora de ficção da New Yorker. Não há outros detalhes disponíveis.
Kahneman contestou pressupostos sobre a racionalidade que dominavam a economia por décadas. Ele conseguiu mostrar a lógica por trás de diversos comportamentos intrigantes — por que as pessoas se recusam a vender ações que perderam valor, ou por que irão dirigir até uma loja distante para economizar em um pequeno item, mas não para obter a mesma economia em um item caro.
Kahneman era “o psicólogo mais influente do mundo em vida”, disse o professor da Universidade Harvard, Steven Pinker, ao Guardian em 2014. “Seu trabalho é realmente monumental na história do pensamento.”
Trabalhando com o psicólogo Amos Tversky, Kahneman isolou vieses que distorcem a tomada de decisões. Estes incluem aversão à perda e como a forma como uma pergunta é formulada pode afetar a resposta. Por exemplo, se um programa de saúde salvará 200 vidas e resultará em 400 mortes, se será aceito pode depender se seus proponentes destacam as vidas salvas ou as vidas perdidas.
Kahneman afirmou que o cérebro reage rapidamente e com base em informações incompletas, muitas vezes com resultados infelizes. “As pessoas são projetadas para contar a melhor história possível”, disse em uma entrevista de 2012 à Associação Americana de Psicologia. “Não gastamos muito tempo dizendo: ‘Bem, há muito que não sabemos.’ Nos viramos com o que sabemos.”
Sob o rótulo “teoria do prospecto”, Kahneman e Tversky iniciaram uma revolução na psicologia e depois na economia, que raramente era considerada uma ciência experimental. O campo da economia comportamental surgiu no final do século XX, à medida que um grupo de jovens economistas usava suas percepções para desafiar noções clássicas de “homo economicus”, o ator racional.
Em entrevista à Bloomberg Línea em 2022, o psicólogo afirmou que a inteligência artificial obrigaria as lideranças nas empresas a conviver, em um futuro próximo, com uma realidade em que decisões estratégicas de negócios dentro de corporações serão tomadas também pela IA.
“Não vai demorar muito até que a inteligência artificial seja melhor do que as pessoas porque ela aprende mais rápido (...) Portanto, podemos esperar que haverá cada vez mais áreas em que a inteligência artificial se tornará cada vez mais importante”, disse Kahneman.
‘Campo minado cognitivo’
Em 2011, Kahneman publicou o best-seller Rápido e devagar: Duas formas de pensar, encontrando uma grande audiência para suas ideias. O estudo apresentou uma visão abrangente da mente como contendo dois sistemas, um rápido e intuitivo, o outro lento e mais racional. Ofereceu conselhos para tomar melhores decisões, começando com: “Reconheça os sinais de que você está em um campo minado cognitivo.”
Daniel Kahneman nasceu em 5 de março de 1934, em Tel Aviv, onde sua mãe estava visitando parentes. A família morava na França, tendo emigrado de lá da Lituânia. Seu pai, um químico judeu, foi preso por causa de sua religião durante a Segunda Guerra Mundial, sendo depois libertado. Após a guerra, a família mudou-se para a Palestina.
Kahneman recebeu um diploma de bacharel em psicologia pela Universidade Hebraica de Jerusalém em 1954. Mais tarde naquele ano, ele se juntou às Forças de Defesa de Israel, onde foi designado para o ramo de psicologia e encarregado de avaliar recrutas. O sistema que ele desenvolveu foi usado por décadas, ele escreveu em sua autobiografia do Prêmio Nobel.
Ele recebeu um Ph.D. da Universidade da Califórnia em Berkeley em 1961 e retornou à Universidade Hebraica para ensinar no departamento de psicologia. Em 1969, ele conheceu Tversky, que se tornou seu colaborador por mais de uma década em seu trabalho vencedor do Prêmio Nobel.
“Amos e eu compartilhamos o espanto de possuir juntos uma gansa que podia pôr ovos de ouro - uma mente conjunta que era melhor do que nossas mentes separadas”, escreveu Kahneman. “Provavelmente compartilhei mais da metade das risadas da minha vida com Amos.”
O jogo do ultimato
A colaboração entre eles produziu artigos, livros e experimentos inovadores como o jogo do ultimato, no qual uma pessoa recebe dinheiro com a condição de compartilhá-lo com uma segunda pessoa. Tipicamente, a segunda pessoa não aceitará menos do que uma parcela de 20% ou 30%, mesmo que fosse racional aceitar qualquer quantia.
A parceria próxima de décadas entre Kahneman e Tversky se tornou mais conhecida com a publicação em 2016 de “O Projeto Desfazer” (”The Undoing Project”), do premiado autor Michael Lewis.
Kahneman teve cargos na Universidade da Colúmbia Britânica, em Vancouver, e em Berkeley. Em 1993, mudou-se para a Universidade de Princeton, em Nova Jersey, onde foi professor de psicologia e também lecionou na Escola de Política Pública e Assuntos Internacionais Woodrow Wilson.
Nos últimos anos, ele estudou a felicidade - mais tecnicamente, a hedônica: coisas que tornam as experiências agradáveis ou desagradáveis, e como medir isso. Uma descoberta notável foi que as pessoas ricas raramente eram mais felizes do que aquelas com rendas mais baixas, desafiando a ideia de que dinheiro compra felicidade.
Kahneman dividiu o Prêmio Nobel de 2002 com Vernon Smith, outro economista experimental.
Kahneman e sua esposa, Irah Kahn, tiveram dois filhos: Michael e Lenore. O casal se divorciou e ele mais tarde se casou com a psicóloga Anne Treisman, que faleceu em 2018.
For months, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied he was planning to invade Ukraine. Even as his forces massed on the border in ever-greater numbers, the Kremlin portrayed it as standard exercises.
Just a week before he unleashed his war, Russia was still saying no conflict was coming.
And when he launched his forces in the early hours of Feb. 24, 2022, Putin couldn’t bring himself to use the word “war,” describing it as a mere “special military operation” to support the desires of separatists in Ukraine’s east to be part of Russia. That’s even as his troops and tanks came into Ukraine from the north and marched toward the capital, Kyiv. And as rockets fell on multiple cities across the country.
Despite all the buildup, for many in Ukraine the war came as a shock. Millions jumped in their cars or rushed to railway stations. A year later, many thousands of Ukrainians remain refugees. Thousands of civilians have been killed and driven from their homes by rocket strikes, and the economy is largely kept afloat by outside aid.
But Putin has also failed to achieve his goals. Ukraine has not fallen. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did not flee; instead, he took his background in show business and became the front-facing cheerleader of his people for the world.
Russia has lost a good slice of the territory it took in the early weeks of fighting. The war is largely bogged down in the east, with both sides running low on weapons and other supplies.
Ukraine’s allies have sent in extraordinary levels of military support. That includes ever-increasingly offensive weapons, with advanced battle tanks the latest to be promised.
Ukrainian soldiers atop an abandoned Russian tank near Kharkiv. Photographer: Yasuyoshi Chiba/Getty Images
And yet the longer that Russia’s forces can hold ground in the east, the harder they will be to dislodge. Ukraine’s allies are strong in their support but as the war drags on, unity may start to fray.
Having cracked down on dissent at home, Putin is having some success in pivoting his rhetoric increasingly to cast Russia as under fundamental attack from the West — particularly the US and European nations.
Big nations like China and India have declined to sign up to the massive sanctions regime on Moscow. Russia’s economy has not collapsed. There are increasing signs that nations in the so-called “Global South” want the war simply to end either way.
The challenge in any war that goes into its second year is sustaining momentum. Time may, unfortunately for Ukraine’s people, end up on Russia’s side. — Rosalind Mathieson
Russian President Vladimir Putin launched Europe’s biggest military assault since World War II with his Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine, killing thousands of people, driving millions more from their homes, shaking the post-Cold War geopolitical order and roiling global markets.
After initially losing territory, Ukraine’s over-matched military unexpectedly fought Russian forces to a standstill in the north, prompting the Kremlin to refocus its attack on the eastern Donbas region. Ukraine has now called on its allies to help it re-arm and prepare for what may stretch into a months- or years-long war.
Here’s a timeline of the main events so far.
Feb. 24
Russia launches its attack from three directions: Belarus in the north, the Donbas region in the east, and from Crimea, which Putin seized in 2014, in the south. The U.S. and European Union announce sanctions targeting Russia’s financial sector, technology imports and oligarchs. Russian stocks and the ruble plunge.
CCTV footage shows Russian military vehicles passing the Armyansk checkpoint on the Ukraine-Crimea border on Feb. 24.
Source: Ukrainian Border Service
Feb. 25
President Volodymyr Zelenskiy rejects calls to flee Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, says his forces are fighting back, and calls for international support and for weapons. The EU imposes sanctions on Putin and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.
Zelenskiy hosts a news conference in Kyiv on March 3.
Photographer: Sergei Supinsky/AFP/Getty Images
Feb. 27
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces plans for a massive boost in defense spending in a historic policy shift. Germany will channel 100 billion euros to modernize the military and meet the NATO spending target of 2% of gross domestic product on defense by 2024.
Feb. 28
Ukraine applies for EU membership. Accession to the bloc is a long and arduous process, which requires the candidate to adopt established EU law and enact reforms, including to its judicial and economic systems. The move also requires the unanimous approval of all EU members.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen applauds Zelenskiy during a video address on March 1.
Source: European Commission
March 1
Russian forces begin the siege of Mariupol, a port city with about 450,000 residents on the Sea of Azov.
March 2
The EU excludes seven Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system and suspends broadcasting by media outlets Russia Today and Sputnik. Officials carve up the EU units of Russia’s largest lender, Sberbank, after sanctions prompt a run on deposits.
A bright flaring object lands at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station in Enerhodar, on March 4.
Source: Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant
March 4
Russian forces occupy the site of Europe’s largest nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia, in an attack that Ukrainian officials say ignited a fire and Lithuania’s president calls “nuclear terrorism.” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg rejects calls from Zelenskiy to impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine, saying it would risk “a full-fledged war in Europe.” The number of refugees displaced inside and outside Ukraine surpasses a million.
A Ukrainian woman carries a child across the border to Siret, Romania, in March.
Photographer: Andrei Pungovschi/Bloomberg
March 8
The U.K. says it will ban all imports of Russian oil, a measure taken in concert with the U.S.
Sergei Lavrov, second left, and Dmytro Kuleba, second right, hold face-to-face talks in Antalya, Turkey, on March 10.
Photographer: Cem Ozdel/Anadolu via Getty Images
March 10
The first high-level talks between Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Russia’s Lavrov fail to make progress, with Kuleba saying the Kremlin is demanding that Kyiv surrender. A six-ton unmanned, Soviet-made reconnaissance drone streaks across three NATO countries from Ukraine to crash in the Croatian capital Zagreb, raising awkward questionsabout the alliance’s readiness.
The U.K. also freezes the assets of Chelsea Football Club owner Roman Abramovich as the EU approves sanctions against more wealthy Russians and more than 140 Russian lawmakers. The ruble hits a record low of almost 122 per dollar as economists predict a steep recession in the Russian economy.
A wounded man at a hospital near the Yavoriv military complex following a Russian air strike, on March 13.
Photographer: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images
March 13
Russian missiles hit a Ukrainian military training facility that had been used by NATO forces before the invasion. The attack near the western city of Lviv close to the Polish frontier killed 35 and wounded 134, and raised concern the war could spill over Ukraine’s borders.
Emergency services and volunteers carry an injured pregnant woman from a maternity hospital in Mariupol, Ukraine, on March 9.
Photographer: Evgeniy Maloletka/AP Photo
March 15
Russian troops take over the largest hospital in Mariupol, taking more than 400 patients and medical staff hostage after targeting it with air strikes. That followed a March 9 strike on a children’s hospital that Ukrainian officials said killed pregnant women and newborns. The EU bans the sale to Russia of luxury goods and the purchase of many Russian steel and iron products, as well as targeting more oligarchs. Zelenskiy reiterates that Ukraine won’t push for NATO membership.
About 300 people are killed by a Russian air strikeon the Mariupol Drama Theater, according to Ukrainian authorities. It was marked by the word “CHILDREN” in huge white letters to ward against an attack.
The destroyed Mariupol Drama Theater.
Photographer: Alexei Alexandrov/AP Photo
March 18
Fears of a bond default by Russia ease after $117 million in interest payments start to reach international investors.
March 24
Russian bond, ruble and stocks trading resumesimultaneously for the first time in nearly a month, even as the Kremlin maintains strict capital controls on the currency.
About 2.3 million barrels a day of Russian crude heads west through a network of pipelines and ports
Sources: Bloomberg; AW Consulting
March 25
Germany’s government announces plans to stopalmost all Russian oil imports this year and broadly wean itself off of the country’s gas by mid-2024. Berlin repeats that Germany won’t back an immediate embargo on Russian energy, citing the cost to business and households and resisting pressure from Ukrainian officials who say fossil fuel purchases are helping fund Putin’s war.
A destroyed Russian tank in Lukianivka, Kyiv.
Photographer: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images
March 29
After Ukrainian forces halt Russia’s advance toward Kyiv, inflicting thousands of casualties and destroying hundreds of aircraft, armored vehicles, and other weapons, the Kremlin says it will sharply cut military operations near the capital and the northern city of Chernihiv. In talks in Turkey, a Ukrainian negotiator said his country is seeking international security guarantees for territory that doesn’t include the occupied areas of Donbas and Crimea.
April 1
Russia pulls back its forces from the decommissioned nuclear power plant in Chernobyland accuses Ukraine of raising radiation exposure risks. Kyiv blames Russia, and Ukraine’s state power company says Moscow’s forces received “significant doses” of radiation after digging trenches at the highly contaminated site.
The Chernobyl nuclear power plant after Russia withdrew its forces from the area, on April 5.
Photographer: Oleksandr Ratushniak/AP Photo
April 3
Evidence of mass killings and other atrocities surfaces after Russian troops withdraw from Bucha and other areas around Kyiv. The EU condemns what it says may be war crimes and begins work on new sanctions. U.S. President Joe Biden says Putin could face trial at an international tribunal and vows additional penalties as well. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied targeting civilians and has blamed the West for staging the attacks, without providing strong evidence for its claims.
Bodies retrieved by municipal workers at a cemetery in Bucha, Ukraine, on April 7.
Photographer: Vadim Ghirda/AP Photo
April 6
The U.S., EU and Group of Seven coordinate on new sanctions on Russia, including a U.S. ban on investment and an EU ban on coal imports.
Despite the penalties, the ruble returns to levels from before the invasion, propped up by capital controls and incoming hard-currency income from energy exports. Russia also slips closer to technical default after foreign banks declined to process about $650 million of dollar payments on its bonds.
A slide is shared during Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s address to the UN Security Council on April 5.
Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
April 7
The United Nations General Assembly votes to suspend Russia from the UN Human Rights Council over its conduct in Ukraine.
April 8
At least 52 people were killed and more than 100 wounded when at least one Russian cruise missile carrying cluster munitions hit the main train station in the eastern city of Kramatorsk, Ukrainian officials said. The attack on the main hub to evacuate civilians from an expected Russian offensive in Donbas drew condemnation from Western officials and calls for tighter sanctions.
Covered bodies following a Russian rocket attack in Kramatorsk, Ukraine, on April 8.
Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images
April 10
Ukraine is pursuing about 5,600 cases of war crimes linked to Russia’s invasion, Prosecutor General Iryna Venediktova says, calling Putin “the main war criminal of the 21st century.” Around this time Russia appoints General Alexander Dvornikov, who oversaw Moscow’s forces in Syria in 2015 and 2016, as top commander for the war. He led the southern prong of the invasion, which had more success than the northern thrust, and will now manage the Kremlin’s shift of focus to the eastern Donbas region.
April 12
Putin characterizes peace talks with Ukraine as “at a dead end,” says the invasion is proceeding “according to plan” and vows to continue, as Kyiv accuses Moscow of sabotaging peace talks.
Biden accuses Putin for the first time of committing “genocide” in Ukraine. Russian forces also face hard-to-prove allegations that they used a poisonous substance in the besieged city of Mariupol which, if confirmed as a chemical weapon, could further escalate the war. Finland starts the process expected to lead to a bid for it to join NATO, while the U.S. and EU separately agree to pay for additional arms for Ukraine worth more than a combined $1.3 billion, including heavy weapons.
China’s exports to Russia slumped in March, even as shipments to other nations grew quickly, indicating Chinese companies are likely being cautious about trading with Russia.
April 14
Russia threatens to deploy nuclear weapons in and around the Baltic Sea if Finland and Sweden join NATO. Russia’s Black Sea flagship, the missile cruiser Moskva, is reported damaged in an incident attributed by Russia to exploding onboard ammunition and by a Ukrainian official to a rocket attack.
The Russian missile cruiser Moskva entering Sevastopol bay on Sept. 10, 2008.
Photographer: Vasily Batanov/AFP/Getty Images
— With assistance by Andra Timu and Patricia Suzara
