ONE YEAR OF WAR IN UKRAINE
Bloomberg, February 24, 2023
For months, Russian President Vladimir Putin denied he was planning to invade Ukraine. Even as his forces massed on the border in ever-greater numbers, the Kremlin portrayed it as standard exercises.
Just a week before he unleashed his war, Russia was still saying no conflict was coming.
And when he launched his forces in the early hours of Feb. 24, 2022, Putin couldn’t bring himself to use the word “war,” describing it as a mere “special military operation” to support the desires of separatists in Ukraine’s east to be part of Russia. That’s even as his troops and tanks came into Ukraine from the north and marched toward the capital, Kyiv. And as rockets fell on multiple cities across the country.
Despite all the buildup, for many in Ukraine the war came as a shock. Millions jumped in their cars or rushed to railway stations. A year later, many thousands of Ukrainians remain refugees. Thousands of civilians have been killed and driven from their homes by rocket strikes, and the economy is largely kept afloat by outside aid.
But Putin has also failed to achieve his goals. Ukraine has not fallen. President Volodymyr Zelenskiy did not flee; instead, he took his background in show business and became the front-facing cheerleader of his people for the world.
Russia has lost a good slice of the territory it took in the early weeks of fighting. The war is largely bogged down in the east, with both sides running low on weapons and other supplies.
Ukraine’s allies have sent in extraordinary levels of military support. That includes ever-increasingly offensive weapons, with advanced battle tanks the latest to be promised.
And yet the longer that Russia’s forces can hold ground in the east, the harder they will be to dislodge. Ukraine’s allies are strong in their support but as the war drags on, unity may start to fray.
Having cracked down on dissent at home, Putin is having some success in pivoting his rhetoric increasingly to cast Russia as under fundamental attack from the West — particularly the US and European nations.
Big nations like China and India have declined to sign up to the massive sanctions regime on Moscow. Russia’s economy has not collapsed. There are increasing signs that nations in the so-called “Global South” want the war simply to end either way.
The challenge in any war that goes into its second year is sustaining momentum. Time may, unfortunately for Ukraine’s people, end up on Russia’s side.
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