Ukraine War: Daily Brief from CDS, February 21

 News from the theater...

International:

0. There was almost nothing new in Vladimir Putin's "parallel reality" speech. He blamed the West for ill intent and declared that Russia wasn't "at war with the people of Ukraine."
1. The only new thing Putin said was Russia's "suspension" from the last remaining strategic arms control treaty. It won't have an immediate effect and is unlikely to lead to a new arms race, given the dire straits of the Russian economy, sanctions, export control measures, etc.

"Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, never," was the POTUS message from Warsaw. Joe Biden reassured allies of rock-solid security guarantees.

Justice for the Russian war crimes

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Kyiv city law enforcement agencies have been investigating 1,539 crimes related to the armed aggression of the Russian Federation, the Head of the Kyiv City Prosecutor's Office, Oleg Kiper, said. In Kyiv itself, the death of 72 civilians, including six children from the Russian attacks, is being investigated. In total, according to the results of investigations, 116 persons have been charged.

A Russian serviceman was sentenced to 12 years in prison. In March 2022, in Terekhivka, Chernihiv district, the perpetrator, together with other military personnel of the Russian Federation, forcibly held a wounded civilian in store for four days, periodically torturing him and depriving him of sleep.

International diplomatic aspect

The buzz about Putin's speech was much greater than its substance. Traditionally, he blamed the West for ill intent about Russia, rejection of Russian "proposals" about security guarantees, "destruction" of arms control treaties, and "pushing" Ukraine to attack Donbas [Ukrainian territory, illegally occupied by Russia]. Vladimir Putin turned to history, his favorite subject, and hinted that Ukraine was an anti-Russia project created by Austro-Hungarian Empire and Poland. It is rather a "progressive" view on the history of Ukraine since, in his last speech, he speculated that Vladimir Lenin “created” Ukraine. "We are not at war with the people of Ukraine. I have already spoken about this many times," Putin said. "The people of Ukraine themselves became a hostage of the Kyiv regime and its Western masters, who actually occupied this country in the political, military, economic sense, destroyed Ukrainian industry for decades, and plundered natural resources."

The only new thing that has traction with reality was Russia's decision to "suspend" [there's no such option in the agreement, though] the New START Treaty - the last remaining nuclear arms control pact between the two countries. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken described this decision as "deeply unfortunate and irresponsible" and noted that the US will be "watching carefully to see what Russia actually does." "We remain ready to talk about strategic arms limitations at any time with Russia irrespective of anything else going on in the world or in our relationship. I think it matters that we continue to act responsibly in this area. It's also something the rest of the world expects of us," Blinken added. There is no immediate threat from Putin's decision. Russia's violation of the INF Treaty led to the US abandoning it. There has been distrust about the Russian actions, which grew even more after the Kremlin refused to follow the inspections provision of the New START. Russia has been increasingly but unsuccessfully using nuclear blackmail since the invasion of Ukraine in 2014. However, it should be watched carefully. Moscow is now even less capable of a nuclear arms race because of sanctions, export control measures, and other factors.

"Autocrats only understand one word: no, no, no. No, you will not take my country, no, you will not take my freedom, no, you will not take my future. And I'll repeat tonight what I said last year in the same place, a dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people's love of liberty. Brutality will never grind down the will of the free," Joe Biden said in Warsaw. "And Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia, never." "Kyiv stands strong. Kyiv stands proud," Biden declared. The POTUS assured Poland and other allies of rock-solid security guarantees. He underlined the importance of Ukraine's fight for the globe, for it's the fight for principles the world order is based on. Joe Biden made a case for the Russian people that the West isn't against them and that Putin's war is against their interests. Such an appeal is logical from the Western point of view but is not much appealing yet to Russians who are, in large numbers, supporting the Russian neo-imperial agenda wrapped up in pseudo-patriotic propaganda.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020 We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com