"Brazil’s industry ministry has launched a number of investigations into the alleged dumping of industrial products by China as Latin America’s largest economy reels from a wave of cheap imported goods. China’s exports grew 7.1 per cent in the first two months of this year, far outpacing growth in imports. “Prolonged declines in China’s export prices may cause trade tensions between China and some major economic powers to rise,” analysts at Nomura said in a research note on Friday. China’s exports to and imports from Brazil both rose by more than a third in the first two months of the year, according to Chinese customs data. The trade tensions create a dilemma for leftwing president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who has sought to both nurture relations with Beijing and protect and develop Brazil’s national industries."
segunda-feira, 18 de março de 2024
quarta-feira, 5 de abril de 2023
Acordo Brasil-China para uso de renmimbi no comércio bilateral - Tomas Guggenheim e imprensa
Abaixo transcrição de duas matérias de imprensa sobre o recente acordo, precedida de longo comentário do colega diplomata Tomas Guggenheim dobre essa impirtante matéria:
“Em anexo, 3 artigos sobre o acordo cambial entre o Brasil e a China, publicados pelo Mercopress, Ámbito Financiero (Argentina) e Financial Times. Os dois primeiros se concentram no acordo propriamente dito, havendo naturalmente repetições entre eles mas também detalhes diferentes.
Mercopress, Montevidéu - 3.4.2023
China and Brazil reach accord to trade with their owncurrencies, avoiding the US dollar
China and Brazil have reached a deal to trade in their own currencies, ditching the US dollar as a common currency, the Brazilian government said on Wednesday, March 29. China has become Brazil's main trading partner.
Reducing dependence on the dollar, and increasing the circulation of the Yuan (RMB), is one of China’s foreign policy directives in the context of trade disputes with theUnited States. Recently, President Xi Jinping signedagreements with Saudi Arabia and Russia, allowing theuse of the Yuan in trade. The RMB has about 2% ofparticipation in global payments, growing mainly aroundthe Asian regional power.
At the end of January, the central banks of both countries signed a memorandum that established a “clearing house” in Brazil. In practical terms, the term refers to a bank chosen by the Chinese government – the ICBC – with liquidity in the Chinese currency to clear foreign exchangedirectly. There, businesses in Brazil can exchange Yuan for the Brazilian currency.
According to a report released in November last year by the People’s Bank of China (PBC, the Chinese central bank), there were 27 “clearing houses” outside mainlandChina in 25 different countries and regions, such as Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, France, Luxembourg, Switzerland, Qatar, Taiwan, South Korea, Singapore, and Australia at the end of 2021. In South America, Chile has a similar agreement, as does Argentina. Even the USA has a “clearing house” todirectly exchange the currency, as indicated by theChinese BC.
According to Tatiana Rosito, secretary of international affairs at the Brazil Ministry of Finance, more exchange rate predictability is crucial for traders and investors. She claims that one of the topics that Chinese traders in Brazil are most interested in discussing is taxes on exchange transactions and that local currency trade may help to increase bilateral exchanges. Last year, there was a US$ 150 billion trade surplus between the two nations, andChina made a total of US$ 70 billion in direct investmentsin Brazil.
On another front, the Brazilian Social Development Bank BNDES also plans to launch new financing lines for bilateral trade.
“These elements will reduce transaction costs for exchanges that involve the real and RMB, aiding in strengthening these relations,” said Tatiana.
The secretary, who represented the Brazil Ministry of Finance, told journalists that establishing ICBC as a clearing house is a “first step;” it is now another option for businesses, although the idea isn’t to make it mandatory. She admitted that clearing houses may be limited in theirability to serve traders at the moment. However, “it mayinterest many businessmen, especially when it will reducetransaction costs, whether with financing, foreign trade or investment.”
China’s Vice Minister of Commerce, Guo Tingting, also welcomed the new agreement. She said the countries are strategic partners and have an “exemplary” relationship.
An executive from one of the biggest meat producers in the country said the deal might be attractive if it givesaccess to lower-interest export financing lines in Chinese banks that do not involve in the US currency. On the other hand, using dollars can benefit domestic agricultural exporters because, in addition to receiving payments in a more valuable currency and incurring expenses in theBrazilian real, it can lessen the effects of the so-called“Brazil cost.”
Cost reduction
The agreement may bring advantages to Brazilianexporters and importers, with low risk for Brazil, according to experts interviewed by Estadão.
In the view of Tulio Cariello, Content Director at theBrazil-China Business Council (CEBC), direct transactions would reduce financial costs sincetransferring payments from the Chinese currency to the dollar and then to the real, or vice versa, incur losses in exchange rates. Second, exchange rates for the Yuan, which have greater control by the Chinese government, vary less, giving companies more predictability.
Welber Barral, a former secretary of foreign trade at theBrazilian Ministry of Development, said that it “could bean alternative to lower the transaction cost by avoidingtwo steps of currency exchange” However, he emphasizes that using the agreement should not entirely replace the need for dollars when trading with China. This is because even though Brazil can trade directly using other currencies known as convertibles, like the euro, Swiss franc, and pound sterling, more than 90% of all current foreign trade transactions in Brazil are still conducted and priced in dollars.
According to consultant Sérgio Quadros, director of SQ Asia Business Consulting, another advantage of direct transactions for Brazilian exporters is the possibility ofopening markets in China. The Chinese government’scapital control policy rules limit local importers’ access tothe dollar.
Ambito Financiero, Buenos Aires - - 4.4.2023
Adiós al dólar: China estrecha vínculo con Brasil y apunta al comercio con el yuan y el real
La semana pasada, en Pekín, China y Brasil firmaronacuerdos comerciales donde establecieron intercambio enyuanes y reales. El dólar pierde así lugar en la economíamundial y se debilita su poder como moneda de cambio.
El avance de China en el comercio internacional está ocasionando estragos. El viejo modelo de intercambioentre países parece cambiar por la influencia del gigante asiático, como el reciente acuerdo suscripto con Brasil, donde el yuan y el real serán a moneda de cambio para operaciones en detrimento del dólar.
Los saltos del comercio chino a nivel mundial estándejando cada día que pasa, con menos margen de maniobra (y de espacio de subsistencia) a la monedanorteamericana, que fue el “árbitro” de los intercambioscomerciales entre países durante gran parte del siglo XX.
China profundiza vínculos estratégicos con Brasil
El acuerdo reciente al que suscribió Brasil, suma a lanación sudamericana a la lista de países que prefieren usar el yuan chino para el comercio exterior. Ambas nacionesharán negocios directamente entre el real brasileño y elyuan chino, dejando de lado al dólar estadounidense.
La alianza se selló durante el Seminario Económico Brasil-China que se realizó en Pekín, el miércoles pasado. Durante la actividad participaron más de 500 empresariosde ambas naciones, pertenecientes a 30 sectores estratégicos de las dos naciones.
Entre los tantos convenios-marco que se firmaron, elacuerdo que más cobra fuerza es el de la adhesión delbanco brasileño BBM al sistema interbancario de pagos de China (China Interbank Payment System, CIPS).
Cómo será el vínculo China-Brasil
Esta es una alternativa al sistema de pagos SWIFT. Este sistema, cuya sede está en Bélgica, conecta a 11.000 bancos en más de 200 países de todo el mundo. Pese a suindependencia, países como Irán y Rusia han sido excluidos tras recibir sanciones financieras de Estados Unidos y Europa.
Sumado a este acuerdo neurálgico para el comercio delpaís vecino, se sumó la creación de una Cámara de Compensación sin la intermediación del dólar estadunidense. El encargado de operar como banco de compensación del yuan, será el Banco Industrial y Comercial de China (ICBC), que tiene una sede en lanación suramericana.
La batería de negociaciones y sus consecuentes resultados en acuerdos comerciales tiene como fondo la relación de China con la región, teniendo en cuenta que dicho país es el mayor socio comercial de Brasil.
Que ambos países avancen en este sentido, con uncomercio sin el dólar estadounidense como moneda de intercambio, pone en relieve la tarea que la expresidentade Brasil, Dilma Rousseff, viene llevando al frente delNuevo Banco de Desarrollo (NBD), mejor conocido como banco de los BRICS. Desde allí impulsará el comercio conotras monedas que no sean el dólar.
El yuan desplaza al dólar sigilosamente
El caso de Brasil no es el único, puesto que China sigueavanzando y profundizando otras alianzas comercialesestrégicas. Arabia Saudita, Rusia, India y Pakistán, entre otros, son aprte de esa red donde el país gobernado por Xi Jinping ha estado tejiendo alianza económicas, pero también en otras áreas sensibles como política, seguridady comercial.
Así, China aumenta día a día los esfuerzos para romper con el monopolio del dólar como ínica moneda de intercambio, un paso más en lo que algunos especialistas consideran el final de la hegemonía del país de Joe Biden en el globo.