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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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Mostrando postagens com marcador revolucao de jasmim. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador revolucao de jasmim. Mostrar todas as postagens

quinta-feira, 15 de setembro de 2011

Iran: primavera iraniana? - Abbas Milani (Newsweek)




NEWSWEEK

Estariam os clérigos iranianos com os dias contados?

Queda de Bashar Assad na Síria pode ter reflexos sobre o regime do Irã

Por Abbas Milani




Newsweek - Iranian Clerics About to Fall?

Os clérigos do Irã estão apavorados. Com a Síria em frangalhos, eles se perguntam se sua aliança com Bashar Assad irá marcar o fim de seu próprio reinado despótico. O regime da Síria tem sido o aliado mais confiável – talvez o único – do Irã no Oriente Médio. Teerã enviou milhões de dólares para manter a Síria sob sua esfera de influência, e nos últimos meses, rumores de forças militares iranianas atuando sob o comando de Assad na Síria começaram a circular.
No entanto, enquanto democratas sírios continuam a surpreender o mundo com sua tenacidade, a longa união entre a Síria e o Irã começa a ruir. As declarações do governo iraniano são contraditórias, e são – ao mesmo tempo – uma tática para confundir o mundo, e um reflexo das enormes cisões e da briga de facções no poder central do Irã.
Inicialmente, o Irã ofereceu apoio ilimitado a Assad. Hoje, o país está recuando. Os clérigos iranianos querem afirmar tanto que a Primavera Árabe foi inspirada por seu modelo islâmico, quanto que a Síria é uma exceção, uma conspiração criada e colocada em prática por Israel e os Estados Unidos. Quando a Turquia, cada vez mais uma rival do Irã na luta por influência no mundo muçulmano, se aliou aos democratas sírios; quando pesquisas em países como o Egito mostraram um declínio na popularidade do regime iraniano; e quando sinais de preocupações entre os sunitas de que os iranianos estejam conspirando para reestabelecer um “Império Xiita” se tornaram cada vez maiores, o regime iraniano começou a se distanciar de Assad.
Afinidades marcam aliança
O Irã e a Síria são parceiros espirituais. Ambos são regimes pseudototalitários que governam em nome de uma ideologia: na Síria, a ideologia do Ba’ath, uma amálgama de fascismo europeu e nacionalismo árabe; e no Irã, a teoria do velayat-e fagih, uma mistura eclética de crenças xiitas na interpretação religiosa da lei e a noção de comando absoluto do rei filósofo, de Platão. Em ambos os países, uma pequena minoria se mantém no poder com o apoio de um sistema de inteligência opressiva, milícia e aparatos militares. Ambos os regimes são minorias xiitas que não contam com a confiança da população em um Oriente Médio dominado por sunitas. Ambos controlaram suas tempestades políticas com a ajuda econômica de forças estrangeiras: no caso da Síria, com o apoio do Irã e de outros Estados árabes; no Irã, por meio de um súbito aumento nos preços do petróleo. Em ambos, o líder vitalício absoluto – Khamenei no Irã e Assad na Síria – foi coroado por meio de golpes e sem eleições populares. Ambos ameaçam e intimidam seus vizinhos apoiando organizações terroristas. Os dois países consideram o Líbano como parte de sua área de atuação e usam o Hezbollah. Como xiitas, eles acreditam no tagiyeh, ou equívoco, um conceito central do xiismo que permite que os piedosos mintam e trapaceiem na defesa de sua fé. Essas afinidades marcam a aliança de 40 anos entre os déspotas do Irã e da Síria.
Agora existem sinais de que por trás do apoio intransigente à Síria, Khamenei e seus asseclas se preocupam com a possibilidade da queda de Assad e suas consequências no Irã. Uma Primavera Síria democrática poderia dar um fim ao longo inverno de despotismo iraniano.

quarta-feira, 11 de maio de 2011

A perigosa fragancia de uma flor: Big Brother chines contra o jasmim...

Ditaduras são, além de uma violação flagrante aos direitos do homem e do cidadão (e da mulher e da cidadã, também), ridículas, perfeitamente ridículas. Todas elas.
Elas se tornam ainda mais ridículas quando se põem a perseguir uma simples flor, o jasmim, repentinamente dotado de insuspeitas e perigosas virtudes revolucionárias.
Pois foi o que aconteceu, e está acontecendo na China.
Nossa solidariedade (e pêsames) ao todos os produtores chineses de jasmim...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Catching Scent of Revolution, China Moves to Snip Jasmine
By ANDREW JACOBS and JONATHAN ANSFIELD
Sim Chi Yin for The New York Times, May 10, 2011
Ornamental jasmine growing in Daxing, on the rural fringe of Beijing. Prices have collapsed since the police issued a jasmine ban.

DAXING, China — Do not be lulled by its intoxicating fragrance or the dainty, starlike blossoms whose whiteness suggests innocence and purity. Jasmine, a stalwart of Chinese tea and the subject of a celebrated folk song often heard while on hold with provincial bureaucrats, is not what it seems.

Since Tunisian revolutionaries this year anointed their successful revolt against the country’s dictatorial president the “Jasmine Revolution,” this flowering cousin of the olive tree has been branded a nefarious change-agent by the skittish men who keep the Chinese Communist Party in power.

Beginning in February, when anonymous calls for a Chinese “Jasmine Revolution” began circulating on the Internet, the Chinese characters for jasmine have been intermittently blocked in text messages while videos of President Hu Jintao singing “Mo Li Hua,” a Qing dynasty paean to the flower, have been plucked from the Web. Local officials, fearful of the flower’s destabilizing potency, canceled this summer’s China International Jasmine Cultural Festival, said Wu Guangyan, manager of the Guangxi Jasmine Development and Investment Company.

Even if Chinese cities have been free from any whiff of revolutionary turmoil, the war on jasmine has not been without casualties, most notably the ever-expanding list of democracy advocates, bloggers and other would-be troublemakers who have been pre-emptively detained by public security agents. They include the artist provocateur Ai Weiwei, who remains in police custody after being seized at Beijing’s international airport last month.

Less well known are the tribulations endured by the tawny-skinned men and women who grow ornamental jasmine here in Daxing, a district on the rural fringe of the capital. They say prices have collapsed since March, when the police issued an open-ended jasmine ban at a number of retail and wholesale flower markets around Beijing.

Zhen Weizhong, 47, who tends 2,000 jasmine plants on about an acre of rented land here, said the knee-high potted variety was wholesaling at about 75 cents, one-third last year’s price. “Even if I could sell them, I would lose money on every plant,” he said, glancing forlornly at a mound of unsold bushes whose blossoms were beginning to fade. Asked if he knew about the so-called Jasmine Revolution and whether it had played a role in collapsing demand, Mr. Zhen shrugged. “I don’t know anything about politics,” he said. “I don’t have time to watch television.”

Much like the initial calls on the Internet for protesters to “stroll silently holding a jasmine flower,” the floral ban is shrouded in some mystery. The Beijing Public Security Bureau declined to answer questions about jasmine. But a number of cut flower and live-plant business owners said they had been either visited by the police in early March or given directives indicating that it had become contraband.

Several of those who run stalls in one large plant outlet, the Sunhe Beidong flower market, said the local police had called vendors to a meeting and forced them to sign pledges to not carry jasmine; one said she had been instructed to report to the authorities those even seeking to purchase jasmine and to jot down their license plate numbers. (She said she had yet to detect any subversives seeking to buy jasmine at her stall.)

Although some vendors were given vague explanations for the jasmine freeze — that the plant was “symbolic” of those people who wanted to sow rebellion — most people involved in the flower trade have been largely left in the dark about why they should behave with such vigilance, and some professed ignorance of the ban altogether. Thanks to a censored Internet, most Chinese have never heard of the protest calls in China, nor are they aware of the ensuing crackdown.

In the absence of concrete information, fantastic rumors have taken root. One wholesale flower vendor at the Jiuzhou Flower and Plant Trading Center in southern Beijing said he heard the ban had something to do with radiation contamination from Japan. A young woman hawking floral bouquets at Laitai, a large flower market near the United States Embassy, said she was told jasmine blossoms contained some unspecified poison that was killing people. “Perhaps you’d like some white roses instead?” she asked hopefully.

Wu Chuanzhen, 53, a farmer who tends eight greenhouses of jasmine on the outskirts of the city, said other growers had insisted that adherents of Falun Gong, the banned spiritual movement deemed an “evil cult” by the authorities, might use the flowers in their bid to overthrow the governing Communist Party. “I heard jasmine is the code word for the revolution,” she said. Her laughter suggested she thought such concerns were absurd.

Many sellers, however, were less than eager to discuss jasmine with a foreigner, particularly at the Sunhe Beidong market, where a policeman could be seen last month nosing around the bouquets. Most quickly steered the conversation to more promising topics. “You don’t want to buy jasmine. It’s just not trendy this year,” said one clerk at the Laitai market, pointing to pots of lavender and rosemary.

As is often the case in China, controls have a tendency to wilt in the face of mercantile pressures. After two months with little sign of jasmine at the markets, a few vanloads of the plants, their branches thick with blossoms, began to show up at wholesale centers last week. They were priced so low, the buyers could not resist. One retailer, who asked that only her surname, Cui, be printed, acknowledged that the original order had not been officially lifted but that the authorities had yet to interfere.

Another vendor waved away talk of revolution and broke into a rendition of “Mo Li Hua,” a version of which was played each time medals were presented during the 2008 Olympics in Beijing:

A beautiful jasmine flower,
A beautiful jasmine flower,
Perfumed blossoms fill the branch,
Fragrant and white for everyone’s delight.
Let me come and pick a blossom
To give to someone,
Jasmine flower, oh jasmine flower.


Mia Li contributed research.
A version of this article appeared in print on May 11, 2011, on page A1 of the New York edition with the headline: Catching Scent of Revolution, China Moves to Snip Jasmine.