O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

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sexta-feira, 10 de janeiro de 2014

Por que os chineses conseguem fazer os que os brasileiros ja deveriam ter feito?

A indústria brasileira, no decorrer dos anos 1970, com os avanços do stalinismo industrial dos militares, adquiriu, digamos assim, status -- pelo menos técnico e tecnológico -- para começar a avançar nos mercados mundiais.
Por que ela não o fez, a despeito de alguns avanços em têxteis, sapatos e outros mercados baseados na mão-de-obra intensiva? Ou seja, ela poderia ter conseguido, desde os anos 1980, uma penetração nos mercados mundiais que os chineses nessa época sequer sonhavam em ter algum dia, a despeito dos passos iniciais da fórmula Deng Xiao-ping de modernização econômica.
Ela não o fez por dois motivos simples: os nossos capitalistas se acomodaram com o apetitoso mercado interno -- realmente grande e dinâmico, garantido por leis protetoras -- e pela visão introvertida dos próprios militares, no seu mercantilismo canhestro. Depois foi aquilo que se viu: voragem inflacionária, planos econômicos esquizofrênicos de estabilização, e sempre mais proteção do mercado interno, com manipulações cambiais e toda sorte de expedientes bizarros para nos isolar dos mercados internacionais.
Agora não tem mais jeito: nos tornamos introvertidos demais, e anti-competitivos, pelo fato de o Brasil ter se tornado um país caro demais, e não apenas devido a problemas cambiais.
Não; basta citar um exemplo: nossa carga fiscal é de 38% do PIB, comparado a 21% do PIB na China.
A China, do ponto de vista econômico, é um país mais capitalista do que o Brasil, que parece socialista, perto dele.
Ou melhor, corrijo: nós somos um país fascista, com o Estado mandando no setor privado...
Leiam a reportagem abaixo, do Der Spiegel.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brand Expansion: China's Race to Conquer World Markets
By Wieland Wagner
Der Spiegel, January 10, 2014
Photo Gallery: Chinese Firms Expanding in World MarketsPhotos
Chinese firms have embarked on a quest to conquer the world market. Several have already done so, with the help of Western know-how. Established rivals are making the mistake of underestimating them -- until it's too late.

The name Haier, a leading Chinese brand for household goods, originates from Liebherr, the German company that set up a joint venture with a Chinese company almost three decades ago. Liebherr taught its partner to build modern fridges. It needed to, because 20 percent of the Chinese manufacturer's output at the time was faulty.

"If a country has no global brand, it can't be on top," says Haier boss Zhang, inspiring other Chinese CEOs to follow his example.Haier boss Zhang Ruimin started out by handing his surprised workers sledgehammers to destroy all the malfunctioning fridges they had made. The shock therapy worked. The state-owned business started to expand its market share in China, where it acquired many smaller competitors. Then it went international, and now it has an 8 percent share of the world market for household appliances.The Chinese brand (its advertising slogan is "Haier and Higher") is well established in Germany as well. The group has a research center in Nuremberg that develops dishwashers for the European market. It bought a fridge factory from Meneghetti in Italy and is building a plant in Poland -- due to go into operation in June -- in cooperation with a partner. Haier has achieved what many companies from emerging economies aim to do: The company from the eastern Chinese city of Qingdao has established itself as a global consumer brand. It has become a serious competitor for Western companies, even in their home markets.
The Far-Eastern firms have a major advantage: established competitors in the West usually don't take them seriously, in some cases until it's too late. Indian market expert Nirmalya Kumar warns that German firms must take care or they might find themselves as overwhelmed as they were by the assault by Japanese camera manufacturers decades ago.
"Chinese companies are growing more self-confident and are intensively pursuing the goal of establishing their brands in other countries," said the Munich Technical University in a recent study of "Chinese Champions." Chinese firms already produce high tech products that meet the highest standards, the study says.
China Wants to Shed Low-Tech Image
There are many such firms on the world market now, the best known being computer maker Lenovo, which acquired the PC division of US group IBM in 2005. Lenovo is rapidly expanding its product range and aims to be perceived not as a Chinese, but as a global brand.
The Chinese government is encouraging the expansion of its companies because it wants to shed the country's image as a cheap, low-tech manufacturing location and to turn it into a center of innovation. "Zou chu qu," loosely translated as "go out," is the message the country's Communist planners are sending to the Chinese business community.
Unlike many Chinese firms, Haier didn't start its international offensive in other emerging economies, but in the US and Europe. It first targeted niche markets neglected by Western manufaturers, like mini fridges and wine coolers.
Haier has quadrupled its worldwide sales to $26 billion since 2000, and its net profit has risen six-fold to $1.4 billion.
The firms need Western know-how to expand. Haier had Liebherr, while Pearl River Piano, now the world's biggest piano maker, had Yamaha. Half a century ago the company from the southern Chinese city of Guangzhou made just four pianos a month. Now it's 100,000. The company has a 15 percent market share in Europe. That was thanks to Yamaha. The Chinese entered a joint venture with the Japanese brand 20 years ago, and once they had accumulated enough knowhow, they dissolved the partnership. In 2000 they pushed their way onto the US market with low-cost pianos. Their instruments were around a third cheaper than Yamaha models.
But Pearl River Piano has been shedding its budget image. In 2005, it entered a cooperation with Steinway & Sons and now builds Essex brand pianos in Guangzhou for the premium American manufacturer.

In Germany, it bought the marketing rights of competitor Rittmüller and poached local piano builders.Germany is an important focus of the Chinese offensive because it has scores of medium-sized businesses with valuable knowhow. Sany Group, the world's biggest construction machinery maker, bought German concrete pump builder Putzmeister for €525 million in 2012.
The next aim is to build world-class cars. But the Chinese first need to work on the quality of their vehicles. They have already selected a German teacher: Daimler recently took a stake in BAIC, the car division of Beijing Automotive Group. There is much speculation in China about BAIC returning the favor by purchasing a stake in the German luxury automaker.

segunda-feira, 19 de março de 2012

Israel: um gigante tecnologico - debate no Hudson Institute, de Washington


Hudson Institute is pleased to invite you to a discussion on...
Economic Lessons from Israel: Jumpstarting Trade and Investment

Wednesday, March 21
12:00 - 2:00 PM
As governments worldwide are seeking ways to create jobs, promote exports, and expand their economies, there are important lessons to be learned from the history and current practice of U.S.-Israeli trade and investment in technology. The field has produced an astounding amount of innovation, new technology, and success for a long list of U.S. and Israeli companies.
Although the United States has been a top innovator for decades, one recent study estimates that its rate of progress in becoming a new, knowledge-based innovation economy is slower than all the other thirty nine countries/regions that were evaluated. A troubling sign is that patents issued to American applicants have dropped recently while those issued to foreign applicants continue to increase.
In contrast, Israel has been accelerating its progress as an innovation-based economy over the last fifteen years. Israel has attracted more than twice as much venture capital investment per person than the United States and thirty times more than Europe—a remarkable feat considering it is a 63-year-old country of only 7.5 million, surrounded by hostile neighbors and with few natural resources. As an innovation hub, Israel has become a premiere destination for American companies. Over a hundred U.S. firms have opened R&D operations in Israel and many more have acquired companies in a variety of industrial sectors, serving as a key catalyst for Israel's own innovation boom.
The U.S.-Israeli commercial relationship is a growth engine for the economies of both countries—creating jobs and enabling companies to innovate, build, and create new products that transform industries and society.
Please join Hudson Institute, in cooperation with the Legacy Heritage Fund, for  a discussion on March 21 from 12:00 to 2:00 PM.
Panelists:
  • Greg Slater, Director, Global Trade and Competition Policy, Intel Corporation
  • Eitan Yudilevich, President, BIRD Foundation
  • Victor Mizrahi, Principal of Mizrahi Enterprises; former President of Semrock, Inc. and former Chief Scientist of Ciena Corporation 
  • Joshua Kram, Head, U.S.-Israeli Business Initiative, U.S. Chamber of Commerce
  • Douglas Feith (moderator), Senior Fellow, Hudson Institute; former Under Secretary of Defense for Policy

terça-feira, 20 de julho de 2010

Elevacao na escala tecnologica: maior valor agregado, maiores receitas

Essa experiência da indústria calçadista de Franca (SP) é exatamente o que já ocorreu em outros países, submetidos à concorrência chinesa, nessa ou em outras áreas: Itália, Espanha, Austrália, Estados Unidos.
Ou seja, o mundo se comporta como o bom senso comanda, e a teoria econômica prevê...

Franca vende menos calçados e ganha mais
Da Redação
Folha de S. Paulo, 20.07.2010

A indústria calçadista de Franca enviou um volume menor de produtos para o mercado externo no primeiro semestre deste ano. Em compensação, viu o valor obtido com essas vendas subir.
De acordo com levantamento mensal do Sindifranca (Sindicato da Indústria de Calçados de Franca), a cidade exportou 1,48 milhão de pares de sapatos nos seis primeiros meses deste ano, ante 1,52 milhão no mesmo intervalo de 2009.
O valor dessas negociações, em 2010, rendeu U$ 42,21 milhões aos fabricantes francanos, enquanto, no ano passado, o total foi de US$ 38,15 milhões.
Até junho, as vendas no mercado internacional de Franca foram puxadas por mercados tradicionais.
Somente os Estados Unidos compraram 28% mais, em valor, neste ano. As vendas para esse país representaram 42,88% das exportações do setor francano.
O Reino Unido elevou ainda mais suas compras da indústria de Franca: passou de US$ 1,48 milhão para US$ 2,82 milhões (alta de 91%).
De acordo com o presidente do Sindifranca, José Carlos Brigagão, a indústria conseguiu agregar mais valor a seus sapatos neste ano. Por isso, conseguiu ganhar mais, mesmo vendendo menos.
Para ele, no entanto, as compras em alta de mercados como Estados Unidos, Reino Unido e Espanha ainda não significam uma recuperação da crise econômica que abalou o poder aquisitivo desses países no ano passado e afetou as vendas internacionais de Franca.
O diretor comercial da Sândalo, Téti Brigagão, tem opinião divergente, pelo menos quando o assunto é a retomada do consumo em mercados importantes para o calçado brasileiro.
Com exceção do público norte-americano, que ainda não voltou a comprar de sua empresa como antes da crise, Téti Brigagão disse que os outros importadores têm acelerado as encomendas.
O incremento, disse ele, veio acompanhado da evolução do valor dos sapatos, resultado de uma mudança do gosto do consumidor externo, que está mais exigente com detalhes como modelagem, costuras e acessórios.