O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

quarta-feira, 29 de janeiro de 2014

Capital in the 21st. century: a controversial book by Thomas Piketty

Cover: Capital in the Twenty-First Century, from Harvard University PressCover: Capital in the Twenty-First Century in HARDCOVER

Capital in the Twenty-First Century

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696 pages
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What are the grand dynamics that drive the accumulation and distribution of capital? Questions about the long-term evolution of inequality, the concentration of wealth, and the prospects for economic growth lie at the heart of political economy. But satisfactory answers have been hard to find for lack of adequate data and clear guiding theories. In Capital in the Twenty-First CenturyThomas Piketty analyzes a unique collection of data from twenty countries, ranging as far back as the eighteenth century, to uncover key economic and social patterns. His findings will transform debate and set the agenda for the next generation of thought about wealth and inequality.
Piketty shows that modern economic growth and the diffusion of knowledge have allowed us to avoid inequalities on the apocalyptic scale predicted by Karl Marx. But we have not modified the deep structures of capital and inequality as much as we thought in the optimistic decades following World War II. The main driver of inequality—the tendency of returns on capital to exceed the rate of economic growth—today threatens to generate extreme inequalities that stir discontent and undermine democratic values. But economic trends are not acts of God. Political action has curbed dangerous inequalities in the past, Piketty says, and may do so again.
A work of extraordinary ambition, originality, and rigor, Capital in the Twenty-First Century reorients our understanding of economic history and confronts us with sobering lessons for today.

O capitalismo e a desigualdade: um debate nao isento de equivocosconceituais

Quando as pessoas argumentam que o capitalismo causa desigualdades, elas estão pretendendo uma contradição nos termos: um sistema de moto perpetuo, ou seja, a criação de riqueza sem as alavancas da criação de riquezas, uma impossibilidade prática.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

The Opinion Pages|CONTRIBUTING OP-ED WRITER

Capitalism vs. Democracy

Thomas B. Edsall
The New York Times, January 29, 2014
Thomas Piketty’s new book, “Capital in the Twenty-First Century,”described by one French newspaper as a “a political and theoretical bulldozer,” defies left and right orthodoxy by arguing that worsening inequality is an inevitable outcome of free market capitalism.
Piketty, a professor at the Paris School of Economics, does not stop there. He contends that capitalism’s inherent dynamic propels powerful forces that threaten democratic societies.
Capitalism, according to Piketty, confronts both modern and modernizing countries with a dilemma: entrepreneurs become increasingly dominant over those who own only their own labor. In Piketty’s view, while emerging economies can defeat this logic in the near term, in the long run, “when pay setters set their own pay, there’s no limit,” unless “confiscatory tax rates” are imposed.


Piketty’s book — published four months ago in France and due out in English this March — suggests that traditional liberal government policies on spending, taxation and regulation will fail to diminish inequality. Piketty has also delivered and posted a series of lectures in French and English outlining his argument.


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Fig. 1: After-tax rate of return vs. growth rate at the world level from Antiquity until 2100. Thomas Piketty

Conservative readers will find that Piketty’s book disputes the view that the free market, liberated from the distorting effects of government intervention, “distributes,” as Milton Friedman famously put it, “the fruits of economic progress among all people. That’s the secret of the enormous improvements in the conditions of the working person over the past two centuries.”
Piketty proposes instead that the rise in inequality reflects markets working precisely as they should: “This has nothing to do with a market imperfection: the more perfect the capital market, the higher” the rate of return on capital is in comparison to the rate of growth of the economy. The higher this ratio is, the greater inequality is.
In a 20-page review for the June issue of the Journal of Economic Literature that has already caused a stir, Branko Milanovic, an economist in the World Bank’s research department, declared:
“I am hesitant to call Thomas Piketty’s new book Capital in the 21st Century one of the best books in economics written in the past several decades. Not that I do not believe it is, but I am careful because of the inflation of positive book reviews and because contemporaries are often poor judges of what may ultimately prove to be influential. With these two caveats, let me state that we are in the presence of one of the watershed books in economic thinking.”
There are a number of key arguments in Piketty’s book. One is that the six-decade period of growing equality in western nations – starting roughly with the onset of World War I and extending into the early 1970s – was unique and highly unlikely to be repeated. That period, Piketty suggests, represented an exception to the more deeply rooted pattern of growing inequality.
According to Piketty, those halcyon six decades were the result of two world wars and the Great Depression. The owners of capital – those at the top of the pyramid of wealth and income – absorbed a series of devastating blows. These included the loss of credibility and authority as markets crashed; physical destruction of capital throughout Europe in both World War I and World War II; the raising of tax rates, especially on high incomes, to finance the wars; high rates of inflation that eroded the assets of creditors; the nationalization of major industries in both England and France; and the appropriation of industries and property in post-colonial countries.
At the same time, the Great Depression produced the New Deal coalition in the United States, which empowered an insurgent labor movement. The postwar period saw huge gains in growth and productivity, the benefits of which were shared with workers who had strong backing from the trade union movement and from the dominant Democratic Party. Widespread support for liberal social and economic policy was so strong that even a Republican president who won easily twice, Dwight D. Eisenhower, recognized that an assault on the New Deal would be futile. In Eisenhower’s words, “Should any political party attempt to abolish Social Security, unemployment insurance, and eliminate labor laws and farm programs, you would not hear from that party again in our political history.”
The six decades between 1914 and 1973 stand out from the past and future, according to Piketty, because the rate of economic growth exceeded the after-tax rate of return on capital. Since then, the rate of growth of the economy has declined, while the return on capital is rising to its pre-World War I levels.
“If the rate of return on capital remains permanently above the rate of growth of the economy – this is Piketty’s key inequality relationship,” Milanovic writes in his review, this “generates a changing functional distribution of income in favor of capital and, if capital incomes are more concentrated than incomes from labor (a rather uncontroversial fact), personal income distribution will also get more unequal—which indeed is what we have witnessed in the past 30 years.”
Piketty has produced the chart at Figure 1 to illustrate his larger point.
The only way to halt this process, he argues, is to impose a global progressive tax on wealth – global in order to prevent (among other things) the transfer of assets to countries without such levies. A global tax, in this scheme, would restrict the concentration of wealth and limit the income flowing to capital.
Piketty would impose an annual graduated tax on stocks and bonds, property and other assets that are customarily not taxed until they are sold. He leaves open the rate and formula for distributing revenues.
The Piketty diagnosis helps explain the recent drop in the share of national income going to labor (see Figure 2) and a parallel increase in the share going to capital.
Piketty’s analysis also sheds light on the worldwide growth in the number of the unemployed. The International Labor Organization, an agency of the United Nations, reported recently that the number of unemployed grew by 5 million from 2012 to 2013, reaching nearly 202 million by the end of last year. It is projected to grow to 215 million by 2018.
Piketty’s wealth tax solution runs directly counter to the principles of contemporary American conservatives who advocate antithetical public policies: cutting top rates and eliminating the estate tax. It would also run counter to the interests of those countries that have purposefully legislated low tax rates in order to attract investment. The very infeasibility of establishing a global wealth tax serves to reinforce Piketty’s argument concerning the inevitability of increasing inequality.
Some Liberals are none too happy with Piketty, either.


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Fig. 2: Nonfarm Business Sector: Labor Share U.S. Department of Labor

Dean Baker, one of the founders of the Center for Economic and Policy Research, wrote me in an email that he believes that Piketty “is far too pessimistic.” Baker contends that there are a host of far less ambitious actions that might help to ameliorate inequality:
“Is it really implausible that we would ever see any sort of tax on finance in the U.S., either the financial transactions tax that I would favor or the financial activities tax advocated by the I.M.F.?”
Baker also noted that “much of our capital is tied up in intellectual property” and that reform of patent laws could serve both to limit the value of drug and other patents and simultaneously lower consumer costs.
Lawrence Mishel, the president of the Economic Policy Institute, responded to my email asking for his take on Piketty:
“We’d take the perspective that this phenomenon is related to the suppression of wage growth so that policies which generate broad-based wage growth are an antidote. The political economy is such that the political power to enact those taxes also requires a mobilized citizenry and institutional power, such as a robust labor movement.”
Daron Acemoglu, a more centrist economist at MIT, praised Piketty’s careful acquisition of data, as well as his emphasis on the economic forces and political conflicts over distribution that shape inequality. In an email, Acemoglu went on to say:
“Part of his interpretation I do not share. Piketty argues that there is a natural tendency for high inequality in ‘capitalist’ economies (the term capitalist is not my favorite) and that certain unusual events (world wars, the Great Depression and policy responses thereto) temporarily reduced inequality. Then both earnings inequality and inequality between capital and labor have been reverting back to their ‘normal’ levels. I don’t think that the data allow us to reach this conclusion. All we see is this pattern of fall and rise, but so many other things are going on. It is consistent with what Piketty says, but it is also consistent with certain technological changes and discontinuities (or globalization) having created a surge in inequality which will then stabilize or even reverse in the next several decades. It is also consistent with the dynamics of political power changing and this being a major contributor to the rise in inequality in advanced economies. We may be seeing parts of several different trends underpinned by several different major shocks rather than the mean-reverting dynamics following the shocks that Piketty singles out.”
There is, however, significant liberal applause for Piketty.
Richard Freeman, an economist at Harvard who specializes in inequality, unions and employment patterns, wrote me by email:
“I am in 100 percent agreement with Piketty and would add that much of labor inequality comes because high earners got paid through stock options and capital ownership.”>
Freeman and two colleagues, Joseph Blasi and Douglas Kruse, professors at the School of Labor and Management Relations at Rutgers, contend in their 2013 book, “The Citizen’s Share: Putting Ownership Back into Democracy,” that they have an alternative to a global wealth tax. They argue that:
“The way forward is to reform the structure of American business so that workers can supplement their wages with significant capital ownership stakes and meaningful capital income and profit shares.”
In other words, let’s turn everyone into a capitalist.
Piketty does not treat worker ownership as a solution, and he is generally dismissive of small-bore reforms, arguing that they will have only modest effects on economic growth worldwide, which he believes is very likely to be stuck at 1 to 1.5 percent through the rest of this century.
Piketty’s joins a number of scholars raising significant questions about how the global economic system will deal with such phenomena asrobotics, the hollowing out of the job market, outsourcing and global competition.
His prognosis is extremely bleak. Without what he acknowledges is a politically unrealistic global wealth tax, he sees the United States and the developed world on a path toward a degree of inequality that will reach levels likely to cause severe social disruption.
Final judgment on Piketty’s work will come with time – a problem in and of itself, because if he is right, inequality will worsen, making it all the more difficult to take preemptive action.

Presidencia imperial de Mr. Obama - resposta republicana ao State ofthe Union

OPINION

Ted Cruz: The Imperial Presidency of Barack Obama

In the nation's history, there is simply no precedent for an American president so wantonly ignoring federal law.

Ted Cruz
The Wall Street Journal, January 28, 2014

Of all the troubling aspects of the Obama presidency, none is more dangerous than the president's persistent pattern of lawlessness, his willingness to disregard the written law and instead enforce his own policies via executive fiat. On Monday, Mr. Obama acted unilaterally to raise the minimum wage paid by federal contracts, the first of many executive actions the White House promised would be a theme of his State of the Union address Tuesday night.
The president's taste for unilateral action to circumvent Congress should concern every citizen, regardless of party or ideology. The great 18th-century political philosopher Montesquieu observed: "There can be no liberty where the legislative and executive powers are united in the same person, or body of magistrates." America's Founding Fathers took this warning to heart, and we should too.
At a White House reception for U.S. mayors, Jan. 23.Reuters
Rule of law doesn't simply mean that society has laws; dictatorships are often characterized by an abundance of laws. Rather, rule of law means that we are a nation ruled by laws, not men. That no one—and especially not the president—is above the law. For that reason, the U.S. Constitution imposes on every president the express duty to "take Care that the Laws be faithfully executed."
Yet rather than honor this duty, President Obama has openly defied it by repeatedly suspending, delaying and waiving portions of the laws he is charged to enforce. When Mr. Obama disagreed with federal immigration laws, he instructed the Justice Department to cease enforcing the laws. He did the same thing with federal welfare law, drug laws and the federal Defense of Marriage Act.
On many of those policy issues, reasonable minds can disagree. Mr. Obama may be right that some of those laws should be changed. But the typical way to voice that policy disagreement, for the preceding 43 presidents, has been to work with Congress to change the law. If the president cannot persuade Congress, then the next step is to take the case to the American people. As President Reagan put it: "If you can't make them see the light, make them feel the heat" of electoral accountability.
President Obama has a different approach. As he said recently, describing his executive powers: "I've got a pen, and I've got a phone." Under the Constitution, that is not the way federal law is supposed to work.
The Obama administration has been so brazen in its attempts to expand federal power that the Supreme Court has unanimously rejected the Justice Department's efforts to expand federal power nine times since January 2012.
There is no example of lawlessness more egregious than the enforcement—or nonenforcement—of the president's signature policy, the Affordable Care Act. Mr. Obama has repeatedly declared that "it's the law of the land." Yet he has repeatedly violated ObamaCare's statutory text.
The law says that businesses with 50 or more full-time employees will face the employer mandate on Jan. 1, 2014. President Obama changed that, granting a one-year waiver to employers. How did he do so? Not by going to Congress to change the text of the law, but through a blog post by an assistant secretary at Treasury announcing the change.
The law says that only Americans who have access to state-run exchanges will be subject to employer penalties and may obtain ObamaCare premium subsidies. This was done to entice the states to create exchanges. But, when 34 states decided not to establish state-run exchanges, the Obama administration announced that the statutory words "established by State" would also mean "established by the federal government."
The law says that members of Congress and their staffs' health coverage must be anObamaCare exchange plan, which would prevent them from receiving their current federal-employee health subsidies, just like millions of Americans who can't receive such benefits. At the behest of Senate Democrats, the Obama administration instead granted a special exemption (deeming "individual" plans to be "group" plans) to members of Congress and their staffs so they could keep their pre-existing health subsidies.
Most strikingly, when over five million Americans found their health insurance plans canceled because ObamaCare made their plans illegal—despite the president's promise "if you like your plan, you can keep it"—President Obama simply held a news conference where he told private insurance companies to disobey the law and issue plans that ObamaCare regulated out of existence.
In other words, rather than go to Congress and try to provide relief to the millions who are hurting because of the "train wreck" of ObamaCare (as one Senate Democrat put it), the president instructed private companies to violate the law and said he would in effect give them a get-out-of-jail-free card—for one year, and one year only. Moreover, in a move reminiscent of Lewis Carroll's looking-glass world, President Obama simultaneously issued a veto threat if Congress passed legislation doing what he was then ordering.
In the more than two centuries of our nation's history, there is simply no precedent for the White House wantonly ignoring federal law and asking private companies to do the same. As my colleague Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin of Iowa asked, "This was the law. How can they change the law?"
Similarly, 11 state attorneys general recently wrote a letter to Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius saying that the continuing changes to ObamaCare are "flatly illegal under federal constitutional and statutory law." The attorneys general correctly observed that "the only way to fix this problem-ridden law is to enact changes lawfully: through Congressional action."
In the past, when Republican presidents abused their power, many Republicans—and the press—rightly called them to account. Today many in Congress—and the press—have chosen to give President Obama a pass on his pattern of lawlessness, perhaps letting partisan loyalty to the man supersede their fidelity to the law.
But this should not be a partisan issue. In time, the country will have another president from another party. For all those who are silent now: What would they think of a Republican president who announced that he was going to ignore the law, or unilaterally change the law? Imagine a future president setting aside environmental laws, or tax laws, or labor laws, or tort laws with which he or she disagreed.
That would be wrong—and it is the Obama precedent that is opening the door for future lawlessness. As Montesquieu knew, an imperial presidency threatens the liberty of every citizen. Because when a president can pick and choose which laws to follow and which to ignore, he is no longer a president.
Mr. Cruz, a Republican senator from Texas, serves as the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee's Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights and Human Rights.

State of DesUnion, or a Diminished Union - Wall Street Journal

Obama Seeks to Borrow More from Poor, Middle Class

BY JAMES FREEMAN AND BRIAN CARNEY

The Wall Street Journal, January 29, 2014

As the Federal Reserve begins to wind down its Quantitative Easing program, which lends money to the U.S. Treasury among others, President Obama on Tuesday night unveiled a new way to finance the federal government's rising debt. In his State of the Union address, Mr. Obama pitched a new product aimed at workers who do not have 401(k) plans. He specifically promised: "I will direct the Treasury to create a new way for working Americans to start their own retirement savings: MyRA. It's a new savings bond that encourages folks to build a nest egg. MyRA guarantees a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in."
Of course no investment is risk-free, and those with modest incomes will have to decide if lending money to the Treasury represents their best opportunity to build wealth. The President is expected to provide more details at a speech today in Pittsburgh.

PRESIDENT DECLARES END OF GLOBAL WARMING DEBATE
More from the State of the Union address: President Obama contended that "the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact." But fascinatingly, the president's certainty comes at a time when even leading climate scientists are struggling to account for the almost-total absence of global warming over the past 16 years. Perhaps the march toward ever-higher global average temperatures will resume. But whether it does or not, climate scientists are already having to account for greater natural variability and other mitigating factors as they seek to explain why increasing CO2 concentrations have not led monotonically to higher average temperatures.
...AND TAKES CREDIT FOR BOOM IN FOSSIL FUELS
Journal editorial notes that much of Mr. Obama's speech "tried to address the economic insecurity that his own policies have done so much to create. Thus the odd combination of claiming credit for the recovery, even for the domestic oil boom he has resisted, while fretting about stagnant wages for "the middle class." Speaking of last night, the Washington Post has an interesting chart illustrating how the frequency of certain words in the State of the Union has changed over time.
Read today's full column »

Greves no Brasil: dos medicos aos motoristas de onibus - Milton Simon Pires

Todos esses movimentos grevistas se desenvolvendo de modo mais ou menos selvagem no Brasil trazem à lembrança outros tempos: os anos Goulart e a crise permanente, inclusive de falta de autoridade e de descalabro administrativo, nas quais o Brasil vivia. Terminou mal, como sabemos.
Só que, desta vez, não haverá marcha de um milhão de pessoas, de classe média obviamente, contra o governo, em defesa da família, da ordem e da propriedade (todas elas ameaçadas, como hoje, aliás), nem haverá outro golpe militar.
Desta vez, não haverá ruptura da democracia, ainda que a democracia já esteja conspurcada pelo fascismo reinante no Brasil.
Desta vez, a única força organizada no país, e com projeto próprio, e operante, é o partido totalitário.
O Brasil ainda não acordou para a realidade.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

CHAMEM OS MOTORISTAS CUBANOS PARA PORTO ALEGRE.


Milton Pires

Hoje, dia 29 de janeiro de 2014, a cidade de Porto Alegre amanheceu sem absolutamente nenhum ônibus circulando. Trata-se da mais abrangente greve dos rodoviários de que me recordo aqui na cidade. O impasse provocado pelo ex-petista José Fortunati, agora prefeito, existe pelo fato de que os proprietários das empresas de ônibus querem “atrelar” o aumento dos salários dos trabalhadores ao aumento das tarifas. Astuto, o prefeito sabe da consequência de um aumento para ordem pública aqui em Porto Alegre. Subindo o preço da passagem, a reação dos integrantes do Movimento Passe Livre (MPL) vai ser radical: novos ataques às lojas, bancos, e demais estabelecimentos comerciais...ônibus incendiados, e por aí vai: tudo aquilo que já conhecemos em 2013.
Curioso em tudo isso é o tratamento que a grande imprensa está dando ao tema. Ao contrário da polêmica envolvendo a vinda dos médicos cubanos, quando toda ela ficou contra a classe médica brasileira, agora leio, assisto e escuto gente (de grandes meios de comunicação) que dá razão aos motoristas! Por que, hein? O que diferencia uma questão da outra?
Lendo o que escrevo aqui, tem gente que vai perguntar: Milton, o que “tem a ver” uma coisa com a outra? Motoristas não são médicos, ganham muitíssimo menos! O lucro dos empresários é enorme. Médicos encontram emprego em qualquer lugar; motoristas não!
Ora, não me interessa a diferença que existe entre médicos e motoristas! O importante é que o Poder Público apresenta (e ingressa na justiça contra) os dois serviços – os de saúde e de transporte – como “essenciais à população”. Se são essenciais, se há tanto tempo existe greve de rodoviários no Brasil, por que o tratamento que a imprensa dá aos dois temas é tão diferente?
Em abril de 2003 eu passei por uma das experiências mais vergonhosas de toda minha vida profissional. Decretada uma greve dos médicos municipários de Porto Alegre, a Prefeitura ingressou na justiça e o movimento foi considerado ilegal. Ameaçado com uma enorme multa, no dia 12 de abril de 2003 (ou foi no dia 16? Não me lembro mais..), perante um auditório da Associação Médica do Rio Grande do Sul lotado, o presidente do SIMERS, Paulo de Argollo Mendes, decretou o fim da greve. A partir daquela data, jurei para mim mesmo que nunca mais em toda minha vida eu participaria pessoalmente de qualquer movimento grevista na minha profissão.
Hoje, 29 de janeiro, motoristas de ônibus e cobradores estão mostrando uma coragem milhares de vezes maior do que a dos médicos. Trabalham em verdadeiras carroças...saunas ambulantes aqui da nossa cidade, sem segurança alguma, levando gente como gado para o abate e mantendo intacta uma máfia que controla todo transporte público de um país que deveria ser baseado fundamentalmente em trens e navios. Não tenho dúvida alguma de que os rodoviários tem mais dignidade e coragem do que os médicos brasileiros. Não tenha dúvida de que o prejuízo para população vai ser enorme, mas afirmo com todas as letras que ninguém merece tanto um prejuízo político como esse quanto o prefeito de Porto Alegre. Junto com o nosso secretário municipal da saúde, outro defensor ferrenho do Programa Mais Médicos, ele agora está numa encruzilhada da qual quero ver como vai sair. Enquanto não encontra o caminho, deixo aqui a minha sugestão: Chamem motoristas cubanos para Porto Alegre!

Porto Alegre, 29 de janeiro de 2014

Violencia urbana: as cidades mais violentas da America Latina e doBrasil

15 CIDADES BRASILEIRAS ENTRE AS MAIS VIOLENTAS DO MUNDO!

            
(Revista Forum) De acordo com relatório de ONG mexicana, 41 municípios da América Latina marcam presença no ranking.  Em 2012 eram 14 cidades; no ano de 2013, 15. Em 2014, o relatório anual da ONG mexicana Conselho Cidadão Para a Segurança Pública e Justiça Penal adicionou mais um município brasileiro ao ranking de 50 cidades com maior índice de homicídios do mundo. A maioria das “mais violentas” está no continente americano (46 cidades), e na América Latina, em particular (41). Os países latino-americanos com maior problema de violência são Honduras, Venezuela, Guatemala, El Salvador, México e Brasil.
            
2. Com uma taxa de 187 homicídios a cada 100 mil habitantes, a cidade hondurenha de San Pedro Sula ocupou pelo terceiro ano consecutivo a liderança do ranking. O segundo lugar fica com Caracas, capital da Venezuela, e, em terceiro, Acapulco, no México, com taxas de 134 e 113, respectivamente, a cada 100 mil habitantes. Saíram da lista as seguintes cidades que figuravam na lista de 2012: Brasília e Curitiba, no Brasil; Barranquilla, na Colômbia; Oakland nos EUA e Monterrey no México. Todas estas tiveram taxas inferiores ao 50° colocado, Valencia, na Venezuela.
              
3. As 16 cidades brasileiras que estão na lista são: - Maceió (AL) com 79,8; / - Fortaleza (CE) com 72,8; / - João Pessoa (PB) com 66,9; / - Natal (RN) com 57,62; / - Salvador (BA) com 57,6; / - Vitória (ES) com 57,4; / - São Luís (MA) com 57,0; / - Belém (PA) com 48,2; / - Campina Grande (PB) com 46,0; / - Goiânia (GO) com 44,6; / - Cuiabá (MT) com 44,0; / - Manaus (AM) com 42,5; / - Recife (PE) com 36,8; / - Macapá (AP) com 36,6; / - Belo Horizonte (MG) com 34,7 e - Aracaju (SE) com 33,4.

Argentina: de novo na beira do abismo - Editorial New York Times

More than a decade after it defaulted on its foreign debts, Argentina is again facing a financial crisis caused largely by misguided government policies.

The administration of President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner recently devalued the peso and relaxed some capital controls in an effort to preserve the country’s dwindling foreign reserves. The government is hoping that these steps will ease some of the pressure on the currency, which does not float freely against the dollar. But Argentina needs to do a lot more to address inflation and other underlying economic problems that have led investors and ordinary citizens to bet against the peso.

In the years after its painful default in 2002, which wiped out the savings of millions of people, Argentina enjoyed a fast-growing economy thanks in part to the booming world demand for soybeans and other commodities the country exports. But Mrs. Kirchner squandered the recovery in recent years by increasing spending on wasteful subsidies and financing the government partly by printing pesos. As a result, inflation has shot up; independent economists estimate that consumer prices jumped 28 percent last year. The official inflation rate was only 10.9 percent but few economists or the International Monetary Fund find that data credible.

Mrs. Kirchner has also hurt the economy by picking unnecessary fights with private businesses and investors. In recent years, she nationalizedan oil company, an airline and pension funds. And, in 2011, the country implemented controls on how many pesos its citizens could convert into dollars, which has helped create a thriving black market for currency transactions and undermined public confidence in the government’s economic policies. A recent poll showed that three-quarters of the country said the economy was headed in the wrong direction.

Government officials have begun taking some small steps to correct past mistakes. For example, the economy minister, Axel Kicillof, has been negotiating compensation for the oil company, YPF, that the government seized in 2012. And Argentina will put out a new inflation index next month to convince the I.M.F. to accept its official data again. But Mrs. Kirchner will have to take much bolder steps to repair the damage.

Ortega, o novo Somoza: reeleicoes infinitas (vai dar inveja nos companheiros...)

América Central

Nicarágua aprova reforma que abre caminho para reeleição infinita de Ortega

Maioria governista votou a favor de texto que também amplia os poderes do sandinista

Assembleia Nacional da Nicarágua aprova reeleição infinita

Assembleia Nacional da Nicarágua aprova reeleição infinita (Oswaldo Rivas/Reuters)

A maioria sandinista na Assembleia Nacional da Nicarágua aprovou nesta terça-feira uma reforma constitucional que permite a reeleição infinita, uma ambição do presidente Daniel Ortega, fiel seguidor do manual de instalação de ditaduras de esquerda em países com instituições fracas.

A mudança, que também dá mais poderes ao presidente, foi aprovada em segunda votação – a primeira ocorreu em dezembro – por 64 votos a favor e 25 votos contrários dos deputados de oposição. Os deputados da opositora Bancada Partido Liberal Independente (Bapli) se retiraram do plenário depois da aprovação do texto geral. Desta forma, a votação artigo por artigo só contou com os votos favoráveis dos sandinistas e aliados.

O novo texto permite que o mandatário seja eleito em primeiro turno e com maioria simples de votos e autoriza o chefe de Estado a emitir decretos com força de lei. Uma carta pública assinada por cinco ex-chanceleres do país afirma, segundo o jornal espanhol El País, que a reforma viola acordos internacionais subscritos pela Nicarágua, relacionados ao respeito à democracia representativa, aos direitos humanos, à separação de poderes e à alternância no poder. A carta ressalta que a mudança “debilita ainda mais a institucionalidade democrática da Nicarágua”.

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Ortega também é chefe da Polícia Nacional e do Exército e seu partido, Frente Sandinista de Libertação Nacional (FSLN), já controla a maioria dos governos municipais e também o Parlamento, o Poder Judiciário e o Eleitoral. Em novembro de 2011, Ortega foi reeleito depois de usar sua influência sobre a Corte Suprema para um golpe institucional. Um artigo da Constituição que proibia a reeleição foi anulado. Na sequência, o Tribunal Eleitoral o declarou vencedor do pleito com mais de 60% dos votos, em uma disputa infestada por denúncias de irregularidades.

A oposição argumentou que o projeto dá mais poder ao presidente sem que isso se traduza em benefício para os nicaraguenses. “Não precisamos de um Somoza, perdão, um Ortega para sempre”, disse o deputado Alberto Lacaio, em alusão ao ditador Anastásio Somoza. Ortega liderou a Revolução Sandinista, que derrubou a ditadura de Somoza em 1979. Mas sua primeira passagem pela Presidência do país também foi ruinosa. Meses antes de deixar o poder, em 1990, ele comandou a piñata, o saque de bens e propriedades promovido pelos sandinistas. Ele voltou para disputar as eleições em 2006 travestido de democrata, pedindo "perdão pelos erros do passado".

Agora, seus aliados no Parlamento unicameral tentam justificar a nova ditadura que Ortega está tentando implantar no país e que opositores comparam à dinastia que comandou o país por mais de quarenta anos. A mulher de Ortega, Rosario Murillo, é chefe de fato do gabinete de governo e os filhos do casal ocupam postos estratégicos, como a direção de meios de comunicação.

(Com agência EFE)