World's largest banks, 2023.
1. 🇨🇳 ICBC
2. 🇨🇳 China Construction Bank
3. 🇨🇳 Agricultural Bank of China
R. 🇺🇸 Bank of America
6. 🇺🇸 JPMorgan Chase
7. 🇯🇵 Mitsubishi
8. 🇬🇧 HSBC
9. 🇫🇷 BNP
10. 🇫🇷 Crédit Agricole
(S&P Global Market Intelligence)
Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;
Meu Twitter: https://twitter.com/PauloAlmeida53
Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/paulobooks
World's largest banks, 2023.
1. 🇨🇳 ICBC
2. 🇨🇳 China Construction Bank
3. 🇨🇳 Agricultural Bank of China
R. 🇺🇸 Bank of America
6. 🇺🇸 JPMorgan Chase
7. 🇯🇵 Mitsubishi
8. 🇬🇧 HSBC
9. 🇫🇷 BNP
10. 🇫🇷 Crédit Agricole
(S&P Global Market Intelligence)
A QUESTÃO PALESTINA
Rubens Barbosa
O Estado de S. Paulo, 13/02/2024
Continua a crescer a pressão da opinião pública mundial por uma solução a médio e longo prazo para a dramática situação no Oriente Médio, a fim de evitar a escalada do conflito entre Israel e Hamas e de buscar um entendimento que permita a estabilização política, econômica e militar na região.
Os altos custos do apoio militar para a Ucrânia e a aproximação da eleição presidencial nos EUA, com forte impacto negativo à candidatura de Biden, são agravados, no curto prazo, pela multiplicação dos incidentes militares, com o risco da situação sair do controle, e pela necessidade de garantir a segurança de Israel e a viabilização do Estado Palestino.
Com esse pano de fundo, o governo de Washington lançou um balão de ensaio com o vazamento de um esboço de proposta por meio de comentários no New York Times e no The Economist, com grande repercussão.
Segundo se noticia, estaria havendo conversas sigilosas no sentido de viabilizar um amplo plano de paz - hoje de difícil aceitação por todas as partes envolvidas -, mas que poderá, com concessões de todos, tornar possível vislumbrar uma luz no fim do túnel, caso a posição do governo norte-americano se mantenha firme e os entendimentos se intensifiquem.
Assim, a política dos EUA em relação a região parece estar evoluindo. O presidente Biden anunciou inéditas sanções contra colonos israelenses que promovem violência contra palestinos na Cisjordânia. Thomas Friedman, no New York Times, prevê uma nova “Doutrina Biden” para o Oriente Médio. As linhas principais dessa nova política americana passariam por uma atitude firme em relação ao Irã, por uma forte pressão sobre Israel, para que aceite a criação de um Estado Palestino, e pelo fortalecimento da aliança com a Arábia Saudita, que reconheceria diplomaticamente Israel. The Economist acrescenta que, em meio a intensa ação diplomática, lideradas pelos EUA e Arábia Saudita, o plano estaria tomando forma, a partir das negociações para a liberação dos reféns em poder do Hamas, (Netanyahu recusou a última proposta do Hamas), para modificar a política interna israelense e permitir a possibilidade de criação do Estado Palestino.
O primeiro passo seria uma posição dura em relação ao Irã, incluindo uma retaliação militar robusta contra aliados e agentes do Irã na região (Houthis, ISIS e outros grupos) em resposta às mortes dos três soldados americanos em uma base na Jordânia, por um drone aparentemente lançado por uma milícia pró-Irã ativa no Iraque. O segundo eixo consistiria em uma iniciativa diplomática sem precedentes, para promover um Estado palestino, que envolveria alguma forma de reconhecimento pelos EUA de um Estado palestino desmilitarizado na Cisjordânia e na Faixa de Gaza, que passaria a existir somente depois que os palestinos tivessem desenvolvido um arcabouço de instituições definidas e críveis, assim como capacidades de garantir que esse Estado seja viável e incapaz de ameaçar Israel. O governo norte-americano estaria mantendo consultas dentro e fora do governo americano a respeito das diferentes formas que esse reconhecimento do estatuto de Estado dos palestinos poderia assumir. O terceiro eixo seria uma aliança de segurança ampliada dos EUA com a Arábia Saudita que também envolveria a normalização das relações dos sauditas com Israel, com reconhecimento mútuo e com garantias de segurança respaldadas pelo governo norte-americano. Seria a retomada dos entendimentos entre a Arabia Saudita e Israel (acordo de Abraão) para o reconhecimento do Estado de Israel, se o governo israelense estiver preparado para aceitar um processo diplomático que leve a criação de um Estado palestino desmilitarizado, liderado por uma Autoridade Palestina fortalecida.
A primeira fase está em curso com os ataques dos EUA aos grupos terroristas no Iraque, na Síria e no Yemen. Como nem os EUA, nem o Irã, nem os países do Golfo querem uma escalada da guerra na região, a fase inicial teria de ser concluída com o controle dos grupos terroristas financiados por Teerã. As conversas reservadas entre EUA, Arabia Saudita, Irã e Israel mostrarão se as duas etapas seguintes da estratégia serão viáveis a médio prazo.
O ataque terrorista de 7 de outubro contra Israel e seus desdobramentos estão forçando uma reformulação fundamental na maneira como a questão do Oriente Médio deve ser tratada. Se vencer as resistências, a Doutrina Biden produzirá um equilíbrio geopolítico e políticas domésticas mais seguras. Essa estratégia poderia dissuadir o Irã, tanto militarmente, quanto politicamente, ao tirar a carta palestina de Teerã. Poderia promover o estatuto do Estado palestino em termos consistentes com a segurança israelense e, simultaneamente, criar condições para a normalização das relações entre Israel e Arábia Saudita, em termos que os palestinos possam aceitar. Mas para que a questão seja bem-sucedida é indispensável que esses três eixos estejam assegurados e interconectados. O plano promete uma nova arquitetura econômica e de segurança no Oriente Médio. Essa estratégia poderia se tornar o maior realinhamento estratégico na região desde o tratado de 1979 em Camp David.
Rubens Barbosa, ex-embaixador em Washington, presidente do Instituto de Relações Internacionais e Comércio Exterior (IRICE) e membro da Academia Paulista de Letras
Preservo todos os erros de digitação e de redação (PRA)
“ dear russian citizen...
im here in texas tonight and its about to hit 17 deg F. yes thats about -8 to you....
many places in russia tonight are getting down to -40 with some down to -57. tomorrow im sure with the power blackouts, and the burst heating pipes many in russia will not make it through the night..
sucks to be you....
im sorry but i dont care... and neither does the rest of the world. NO one is really thinking about russia tonight (except for me looking at the karma on the weather map). we in the US dont give a darn about russia, its not in our head most of the time... NO ONE thinks about you at all. we have more improtant things to think of.. like who is on love island tonight, or dancing with the stars..... we dont care about russia, or its people.
but for tonight i have 2 generators, 40 gal of gas, solar, battery back up, and a hmmwv mounted generator... and a reliable grid.
i also have eggs and 40 chickens, i know right.... crazy.
i will be in comfort and sleep well tonight...
the thing is that im not rich, just a standard american that has worked hard... thats it.
none of my army friends are dying tonight in a cold hole in another country, im not getting shelled, and again i have eggs and chickens...
YOU could and should have everything i have, your country is rich in oil and lots of other things... BUT, YOUR dumb ass voted in a crazy murder as the leader of your country.. YOU did that, then YOU supported the invasions of georga and ukraine.... YOU DID.
it was all fun and games when you were winning, but now everything is falling apart. you cant get parts for your car, your aircraft are not flying like they should, your pipes and bursting, wildburries are burning to the ground... everything is turning to crap around you... over what? some land in another country that the entire world has said you will never be able to keep... the entire world is against you. yea i know you still have syria and north korea... but other than that... no one.
you have had over 1 million dead and wounded over this stupidity... you see the wounded every day on the street, people that will never be normal with missing arms and legs... and others that have nightmares in their heads that at some point will make them monsters and kill (at home) sometime in the future.. ticking bombs waiting to go off. if the war stopped today the killing would not...
whats sad is that if you had not invaded ukraine, and was not a monster of a country the whole world would be helping you today with the cold. sending planeloads of generators and parts to make sure no one froze to death, and everything that would be needed to make your lives better. but no you had to be a jerk.
it seems you have 3 choices now, die in ukraine, die in a unheated apartment, or someone has to show putin the window or give him "special" tea.... its sad but no one cares if nearly every russian dies tonight... just saying.
in the words if the great clarkson....
"ow well, moving on"
and i do hope that a russian sees this note...”
Quatro líderes e um mundo virado ao revés
Israel , EUA, Rússia e ChinaJoe Biden é um presidente impopular e sem alguma recuperação ele poderia facilmente perder para Donald Trump em 2024.
O que esperar de aliança por etanol que o Brasil, Índia e EUA devem lançar amanhã no G20
O Brasil seria mais impactado por uma crise chinesa do que os EUA (pouco) ou o Japão e a Alemanha, que vendem muito para a China. Ou seja, o Brasil é um perdedor se a China entrar em recessão.
O perigo não está nos outros, e sim em nós mesmos
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
As disfuncionalidades da democracia americana são evidentes, e isso é muito mais grave do que o desafio chinês; os EUA podem ficar paralisados por suas dissensões internas e gastos excessivos.
A China também tem seus problemas, mas por enquanto o mandarinato tem atuado de forma bastante eficiente: se o novo imperador não exagerar no centralismo autoritário, vamos ter, realmente, um novo hegemon durante algum tempo, até que a entropia produza efeitos negativos.
A democracia brasileira também é muito disfuncional, mas sua natureza é diversa da americana: não temos educação de qualidade suficiente para melhorar a produtividade do capital humano da massa da população, apenas ilhas de excelência contidas em seu dinamismo pela mediocridade geral do estamento político e pela extorsão sobre os recursos públicos dos altos mandarins do Estado, começando pelos aristocratas do Judiciário.
Como viram, não sou sartriano no meu ceticismo sadio: o inferno não são os outros.
No longo prazo, a racionalidade vai predominar, mas a desigualdade de oportunidades continuará sendo o traço marcante do processo civilizatório, entre as nações e dentro dos Estados.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brasília, 11/06/2023
Para quem acha que o Brasil sofre de "racismo estrutural":
No dia 8 de junho de 1953, há setenta anos, a Suprema Corte dos EUA decidiu que restaurantes, bares e cafés em Washington D.C. não poderiam recusar a servir clientes negros (District of Columbia v. John R. Thompson Co.Inc.).Um notícia de janeiro, que tinha me passado despercebida...
The Iranian regime has recently cracked down very hard on its own people. After the protests against the regime going on since mid-September, have since then taken a turn towards a revolution. The people of Iran do not just want change from this government. They want the regime gone entirely.
Another horrible mistake that the Iranian Mullah regime made was providing Russia with arms or rather terrror weapons in its war against Ukraine. Now, a drone factory was hit. However, it is unclear who is behind these attacks.
“An explosion has occurred in one of the military centers affiliated to the Ministry of Defense,” the deputy head of security for Isfahan governorate Mohammad Reza Jan-Nesari told the semi-official Fars News Agency.
The West has often criticized this decision and warned Iran of possible consequences of such actions. The regime in Teheran obviously didn’t heed these warnings. However, who is behind these attacks is still shrouded in mystery.
What we do know is that among other strikes there is also a huge fire reported in Azarsharhr in an East Azerbaijan province, the attack seem to be well coordinated and have been targeted against military and industrial facilities all across the country. The strikes are still ongoing as new strikes are reported against an IRGC base in Mahabad.
Iranian sources reported that explosions were heard in Hamedan and Karaj
The Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs will evacuate their embassy staff and members of their families from Iran today. We must keep in mind that the Israeli Airforce has been granted access to an airfield on the territory of Aszerbaidschan in close proximity to the Iranian border. US officials have been rather unhappy with this arrangement.
U.S. intelligence officials are worried that Israel’s military involvement in Azerbaijan would make it more difficult for the U.S. to reduce Israeli-Iranian tensions. Apparently now, military planners must prepare for a war scenario that would also involve the Caucasus.
“We’re watching what Iran does closely,” said a U.S. intelligence officer involved in assessing the consequences of a potential Israeli strike on Iran. “But we’re now watching what Israel is doing in Azerbaijan. And we’re not happy about it.”
Note: From here on out, this is an opinion piece.
The current regime has lost its legimitacy with its people, while many Western media outlets wish to present the case as “civil unrest” or “protests” that couldn’t be further from the truth.
The Iranian regime has started to kill people, torture them, and imprison them in mass.
The Iranian people do not want reforms from the regime, they want the regime gone, they want to take care of their own affairs without some morality police telling them how to live or a security guard eavesdropping on their conversations. These aren’t protests. This is a revolution made by the people and for the people to remove the Mullah dictatorship from power.
Let’s try to answer the question: Who could be behind these attacks?
“Freedom is never given voluntarily by the oppressor; it must be demanded by the oppressed.” You must demand it, for it will not be given freely. Dr. Martin Luther King
My first guess would be that the Mossad smuggled in a dozen or so foreign-made drones to one of the insurgent or anti-regime groups and provided coordinates of some lightly-defended, highly-flammable targets.
Iran has been executing peaceful civilians for a while now, so the now still peaceful protestors may soon join the ranks of the more violent arm of the revolution as they may be ready to move to a less peaceful approach.
That explanation is possible, although as widespread and coordinated as it seems at this moment, I’d guess there is some level of professionalism that goes beyond the capacity of local insurgent groups.
I really doubt this is a Mossad led insurgency on the ground type of operation. Even though it would probably be the best-case scenario, if the attack was executed by anti-regime groups rather than a foreign power.
Likelihood: 3/10
Option 2: The USA did it
Israel has a lot of agents and cells in Iran.This was totally something they could set in motion. The way the Mossad works in Iran is absolutely master class. I highly doubt this was the US, though. The US does not like doing anything kinetic in Iran these days.
Except that the computer virus that the US and Israel sent towards Iran, which was pretty gangster. Autocratic regimes all around the world love to blame everything on the US. Don’t be shocked as the accusations are going to come in pretty soon.
Likelihood: 1/10
Option 3: China
Maybe it was Xi. But if you thought the US and Russia both had their problems with the Middle East, I am deeply skeptical of what would the Chinese COIN operations look like. That’s assuming the Chinese military is even bothered by trying to understand the local culture/religion.
Their best option would be to try to establish mass surveillance to run facial recognition and whack the folks who seem to be doing suspicious stuff or disappear off of the grid for hours/days at a time. But first they need to get the cameras up and running when the insurgents are probably going to suspect something is up with the Chinese trying to install cameras in every house, apartment elevators/hallways, alleyway, streetlight and so on.
Likelihood: 2/10
Option 4: Ukraine is sending their regards with the kind support of the Israeli Air Force and Western intelligence
The CIA director is in Israel right now. The US did say they would “work to distrust the supply of weapons and drones to Russia”. Ukraine has warned Iran as well about the continuation of this close relationship. Israel was less than happy about Iranian drone deliveries as well. Iran is using Russia as a proxy for their own fight against Israel. Russia really fell very low by becoming a proxy of Iran in this geo-political chess game. Also, recent remarks about giving nukes to Iran by Russia’s propaganda machine could have triggered a reaction by Israel.
It could also be a false flag operation by the revolutionary guard to distract us all from the revolution. Potentially, that could backfire, though. What is for sure: The Israelis are on edge and geared up because a Palestinian just killed 7 people outside of a synagogue in east Jerusalem.
So, I think it’s more likely the CIA is in Tel Aviv to try and keep the Israelis calm than they are trying to organize covert strikes rather than to discuss secret strikes against Iran.
Still, this scenario has some credibility to it. This might be a message by the West delivered by a close ally Israel. The message is going out to Teheran but also towards Moscow: Stop these drone attacks and deliveries. Otherwise, none of these factories will be left standing. The scenario of an Israeli drone strike seems to be the most credible and most likely explanation here.
Likelihood: 8/10
Summary and Conclusion:
Probably all of that is another sad comedy of incompetence with some warcrimes sprinkled in. The Iranian regime has made many mistakes lately. Sending these drones to Russia was one of them. Acting with such brutality and violence against the Iranian people is another one. Iran is just one of many geo-political players who have underestimated the strength of the West and the strength of people unwilling to bow to tyranny.
I have ultimately no answer for you who is behind these strikes. Time will tell, but feel free to share your opinion with me in the comments as to what you think? Who is behind these strikes?
No nation deserves freedom or can long retain it, which does not win it for itself. Revolutions must be made by the people and for the people. Giuseppe Mazzini
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Take care and be well.
30+ year old History Professor and educator. MA in Business Ethics and Modern European History. History has much to teach, but it doesn't find enough students