Brookings: Country-by-Country of G-20 - 2014

• G-20 Member Countries
• EU Member Countries
• EU & G-20 Member Countries

Link

On November 15-16, world leaders gathered in Brisbane, Australia for the ninth G-20 summit. Leaders aimed to increase world GDP and chart a pathway to sustainable, inclusive growth and resilience through both short and medium-term actions. In this report, experts from Brookings and around the world address interrelated debates about growth, convergence and income distribution, three key elements that are likely to shape policy debates beyond the Brisbane summit.
Download the full Think Tank 20 report, or access individual chapters at the links below:

Growth, Convergence, and Income Distribution: An Introduction
Kemal Derviş and Homi Kharas
With world leaders gathering for the G-20 summit in Brisbane, three big debates will impact their ability to plot the right course to achieving inclusive, sustainable growth.

Back to top »

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Is Africa Growth at a Historical Crossroads to Convergence?
Amadou Sy
Impressive growth among sub-Saharan African countries since the early 1990s has led to an unprecedented optimism about the continent’s economic prospects. Africa now finds itself at a historical crossroads, which could lead to convergence with emerging markets, and ultimately with advanced economies.

SOUTH AFRICA
South Africa: Perspectives on Divergence and Convergence
Haroon Bhorat and Alan Hirsch
South Africa is on a highly unequal, slow growth economic development path which, if not effectively addressed, will perpetuate the current course of long-run economic divergence.

Back to top »

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Economic Growth in Asia: Performance and Prospects
Montek Ahluwalia
The share of Asian EMDEs in global GDP could reach 40 percent by 2030, substantially increasing the region's role in the global economy and requiring significant structural changes in the formal institutions of global governance.

AUSTRALIA
Australia, Emerging Asia and Global Cooperation
Peter Drysdale
Now that the immediate threat of the global financial crisis has receded, Asia’s ambitions in the global community remain centered on economic and social transformation through sustainable development. On both fronts, the G-20 has a big and ongoing task and Asian G-20 members have a central role and interest.

CHINA
A New Normal, but with Robust Growth: China’s Growth Prospects in the Next 10 Years
Yang Yao
China's economy is rebalancing, helping it to improve its income distribution. But while robust growth in China can compensate for some of the losses left by poor-performing advanced economies, the world may have to wait until China enjoys much higher per-capita income to expect the country to become a major consumer goods importer.

INDIA
Secular Stagnation: Can India Buck the Trend?
Rakesh Mohan and Muneesh Kapur
With the right policy measures, India can buck the trend towards growth slowdowns now appearing in advanced and developing countries.

INDONESIA
Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution: A View from Indonesia
Maria Monica Wihardja
Indonesia faces specific challenges in maintaining high growth and avoiding the middle-income trap, but it can learn from the often painful structural reforms undertaken in other emerging economies.

JAPAN
Defining Exit from Deflation
Yoshio Okubo
Weaknesses in the global economy and uncertain prospects for the future have prompted a new debate on the possibility of secular stagnation or prolonged deflation in advanced economies, often citing Japan as an example. This note focuses on the recent economic developments in Japan and considers potential pitfalls that policymakers in advanced economies may face in the post-crisis environment.

KOREA
From Rapid, Shared Growth to Slow, Unshared Growth?
Wonhyuk Lim
Korea is a prime example of a country that was able to achieve rapid, shared growth, but is now facing the challenge of what appears to be slow, unshared growth. It provides a number of lessons for maturing economies that are going through a midlife crisis of their own.

Back to top »

EUROPEAN UNION
How Can Europe Avoid Secular Stagnation?
Guntram Wolff
Three central policy measures can help deal with stagnation in the eurozone.

FRANCE
Growth, Convergence and Social Conditions: Where is Europe Headed?
Jacques Mistral
The eurozone, having successfully emerged from the acute phase of its debt crisis, is again entering unchartered waters. There is no region in the world economy where the three debates about growth, convergence and social conditions are more closely linked. This paper explores this new horizon and finds reason for hope.

GERMANY
Quantitative Easing and Deflation in a Creditor Economy
Daniel Gros
Northern European excess savings constitute a serious issue for a global economy still short of demand. This issue should be on the agenda of the G-20, not just Europe’s, but it is unlikely that it will be resolved any time soon.

ITALY
Sluggish Growth in the Eurozone: The Long Journey Ahead
Paolo Guerrieri
To exit from the crisis, the eurozone needs new policies and more integration, but national interests still trump collective interests. A deepening of the eurozone crisis, if not properly addressed, could turn into a dramatic global crisis.

RUSSIA
Russia: Prospects for Growth and Convergence
Sergey Drobyshevsky
Changes in commodity prices, limits to potential growth and consumer demand issues all point to a low probability of fast and stable growth in the medium term, but the Russian economy is far from doomed.

UNITED KINGDOM
Convergence Determines Governance — Within and Without
Danny Quah
As economists debate the dynamics of growth and convergence to understand if the world's poor are catching up to the rich, historians of foreign policy and international relations scholars are asking what the implications for global power shifts, and for the legitimacy of different forms of world leadership, will be.

Back to top »

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Latin America’s Decade of Development-less Growth
Ernesto Talvi
Latin America's decade of uninterrupted high growth rates put an end to a quarter of a century of relative decline in income per capita levels vis-à-vis advanced economies. But with the extremely favorable external conditions already behind us, the region is expected to grow at mediocre rates of around 2 percent in per capita terms for the foreseeable future, making the dream of convergence and development unlikely to be realized any time soon.

ARGENTINA
Argentina: A Case of “Reverse Convergence”
Miguel Kiguel
Argentina again finds itself in a period of high volatility and recession, but there may be more cause for optimism this time around than in previous crises.

BRAZIL
Demography, Technology, and All Other Things Considered
Claudio Frischtak
Demographic and technological changes will have significant implications for growth globally, and could make for a steeper ascent for Brazil and other emerging and developing economies.

MEXICO
The Challenges to Achieving Sustainable Growth in Latin America
Guillermo Ortiz
To enable the region to escape from the “middle-income trap,” Latin America needs to maintain the macroeconomic and financial stability achieved over the decade and press ahead on an important structural reform agenda.

Back to top »

REGIONAL PERSPECTIVE
Growth and Convergence in the Arab Region
Hafez Ghanem
More than three years after the revolutions the euphoria with which of the 2010-11 revolutions were greeted, the Arab transition to democracy appears to be sinking in the desert’s quicksand, and economies of the five so-called Arab countries in transition are faring little better. But faster growth and more rapid convergence to the OECD and the emerging economies can be achieved through more investment in inclusive institutions, and physical and human capital.

SAUDI ARABIA
Economic Convergence in Saudi Arabia
Ali Al-Sadiq
Despite rapid economic growth over the last few decades, Saudi real incomes per capita have not converged to those of advanced economies. Failure to diversify production from the capital-intensive hydrocarbon sector to employment-generating non-oil sectors, coupled with high population growth and a delay in removing restrictions on foreign investment, has exacerbated income disparities. An economic transformation and diversification strategy that targets employment-generating economic activities will be key to achieving convergence with advanced economies.

TURKEY
The Growth Debate Redux
Galip Kemal Ozhan
Turkey may be her own special case in many respects, but the country’s progress has to take place in an increasingly interconnected global economy.

Back to top »

CANADA
Secular Stagnation is Not Destiny: Faster Growth is Achievable with Better Policy
Jean Boivin and Tiff Macklem
The stakes for the G-20 are incredibly high. Faster growth is within reach, but it will require countries to take action individually and collectively. Secular stagnation is not destiny; but avoiding it will take determination and resolve.

UNITED STATES
US Economic Growth is Over: The Short Run Meets the Long Run
Robert Gordon
The "techno-optimists" are wrong about the future U.S. economic growth.

Back to top »

---

Related Book:
The G-20 Summit at Five: Time for Strategic Leadership
Kemal Derviş
Brookings Institution Press, 2014




Read Past Think Tank 20 Reports:

The G-20 and Central Banks in the New World of Unconventional Monetary Policy
August 2013

New Challenges for the Global Economy, New Uncertainties for the G-20
June 2012

Beyond Macroeconomic Policy Coordination Discussions in the G-20
November 2011

Macroeconomic Policy Interdependence and the G-20
April 2011

Global Perspectives on the Seoul G-20 Summit
November 2010

Related Topics

Convergencia global: a erratica marcha da America Latina na economia mundial

From Brookings Intstitution

Something extraordinary is happening in emerging economies—or is it? Ernesto Talvi says these four charts help answer that question. If you want to dig deeper into economic growth, convergence, and income distribution around the globe, explore this country-by-country examination released during November’s G-20 summit.

 Brookings, December 5, 2014 3:12pm

Four Charts Explaining Latin America’s Decade of Development-less Growth

Editor’s Note: In the report “Think Tank 20: Growth, Convergence and Income Distribution: The Road from the Brisbane G-20 Summit” experts from Brookings and around the world address interrelated debates about growth, convergence and income distribution, three key elements that are likely to shape policy debates beyond the ninth G-20 summit that was held on November 15-16 in Brisbane, Australia. The content of this blog is based on the chapter on Latin America. Read the full brief on Latin America's growth trends here.
A figure says a thousand words. And, looking at Figure 1, which shows the population-weighted average income per capita in emerging economies relative to the U.S., there could be no doubt in anybody’s mind that since the late 1990s something rather extraordinary happened—a phenomenon with no antecedents in the post-WWII period—that propelled emerging economies into an exponential process of convergence.
Needless to say, this phenomenon had enormous consequences for the welfare of millions of citizens in emerging economies. It lifted more than 500 million people out from poverty and extreme poverty, and gave rise to the so-called emerging middle class that grew at a rate of 150 million per year.

So, it seems that something rather extraordinary happened in emerging economies. Or did it? Let’s look again. When China and India are removed from the emerging markets sample, Figure 1 becomes Figure 2a.
In Figure 2a, one can still discern a period of convergence starting in the late 1990s. But convergence here was not nearly as strong—relative income is still far below its previous heights—and it occurred after a period of divergence that started in the mid-1970s after the first oil shock, in the early 1980s with the debt crisis, and in the late 1980s with post-Berlin Wall meltdown in Eastern European economies.
This pattern is actually characteristic of every emerging region including Latin America (see Figure 2b). Only Asia differs markedly from this pattern—with China and India displaying exponential convergence since the late 1990s, while the rest of emerging Asia experienced a sustained but much slower convergence since the mid-1960s. 

From a Latin American perspective, the relevant question we need to ask is whether the recent bout of convergence that started in 2004 after a quarter of a century of relative income decline is a break with the past or just a short-lived phenomenon?
In order to address this question from a Latin American perspective, we study the arithmetic of convergence (i.e., whether mechanical projections are consistent with the convergence hypothesis) and the economics of convergence (i.e., whether income convergence was associated with a comparable convergence in the drivers of growth).
According to our definition of convergence,[1] since 1950, growth-convergence-development miracles represent a tiny fraction of emerging countries. Only five countries managed to achieve this: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. In other words, convergence towards income per capita levels of rich countries is an extremely rare event.
But where does Latin America stand? Based on growth projections for the period 2014-2018, not a single Latin American country will converge to two-thirds of U.S. income per capita in two generations. Unfortunately, the arithmetic does not seem to be on the side of the region.
What about the economics? To answer this question, we analyze whether Latin America’s process of income convergence in the last decade was also associated with a similar convergence in the key drivers of growth: trade integration, physical and technological infrastructure, human capital, innovation, and the quality of public services. Figure 3 illustrates the results.
In contrast to relative income, during the last decade, LAC-7 [2] countries failed to converge towards advanced country levels in every growth driver. The overall index of growth drivers—the simple average of the five sub-indexes—remained unchanged in the last decade relative to the equivalent index for advanced economies. By and large, the latter holds true for every LAC-7 country with exceptions like Colombia (the only country that improved in every single growth driver in the last decade) and Chile (the country in the region where the levels of growth drivers are closer to those of advanced economies). 

Latin America had a decade of uninterrupted high growth rates—with the sole exception of 2009 in the aftermath of the Lehman crisis—that put an end to a quarter of a century of relative decline in income per capita levels vis-à-vis advanced economies. However, high growth and income convergence were largely the result of an unusually favorable external environment, rather than the result of convergence to advanced-country levels in the key drivers of growth. Fundamentally, the last was a decade of “development-less growth” in Latin America.
With the extremely favorable external conditions already behind us, the region is expected to grow at mediocre rates of around 2 percent in per capita terms for the foreseeable future. With this level of growth, the dream of convergence and development is unlikely to be realized any time soon.
To avoid such a fate the region must make a renewed effort of economic transformation. Although the challenges ahead appear to be huge, there is plenty of room for optimism. First, Latin America has built a sound platform to launch a process of development. Democracy has by-and-large consolidated across the region, and an entire generation has now grown up to see an election as the only legitimate way to select national leaders. Moreover, it is for the most part a relatively stable region with no armed conflicts and few insurgency movements threatening the authority of the state. Second, a sizeable group of major countries in Latin America have a long track record of sound macroeconomic performance by now. Third, the region could be just steps away from major economic integration. Most Latin American countries in the Pacific Coast have bilateral free trade agreements with their North American neighbors (11 countries with the U.S. and seven countries with Canada). Were these countries to harmonize current bilateral trade agreements among themselves—in the way Pacific Alliance members have been doing—a huge economic space would be born: a Trans-American Partnership that would comprise 620 million consumers, and have a combined GDP of more than $22 trillion (larger than the EU’s, and more than double that of China). Were such a partnership on the Pacific side of the Americas to gain traction, it could eventually be extended to Atlantic partners, in particular Brazil and other Mercosur countries.
In the last quarter of a century democracy, sound macroeconomic management and an outward-looking development strategy made substantial strides in the region. If these conquests are consolidated and the same kind of progress is achieved in key development drivers in the next 25 years, many countries in the region could be on the road to convergence.

---

[1] We define convergence as a process whereby a country’s income per capita starts at or below one-third of U.S. income per capita at any point in time since 1950, and rises to or above two-thirds of U.S. income per capita.
[2] LAC-7 is the simple average of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela, which account for 93 percent of Latin America’s GDP.

Ernesto Talvi

Director, Brookings Global – CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Global Economy and Development

Ernesto Talvi is a nonresident senior fellow in the Global Economy and Development Program.  He also serves as the director of the Brookings Global-CERES Economic and Social Policy in Latin America Initiative, as Academic Director of CERES in Montevideo, Uruguay, and as a visiting professor at Columbia University in New York. His work focuses on emerging markets macroeconomics with special emphasis on Latin America, stabilization programs, fiscal policy, capital flows and financial crises.

More Posts from Ernesto > | View Expert Page >

• Latin America and the Caribbean
• Global Development
• Emerging Markets
• G-20
• Share on email Share on twitter Share on facebook Share on linkedin Share on google_plusone_share Share on stumbleupon Share on reddit Share on print
   

A Omissao da Verdade e a reescritura da Historia - Ricardo Velez-Rodriguez

OmissãO Da Verdade

Ricardo Vélez-Rodríguez

Blog Rocinante, 24/12/2014

A Comissão da Verdade cumpriu com o seu cometido de Omissão da Verdade. Poderia ter ficado muda, teria sido melhor para o Brasil e para o respeito devido à inteligência dos brasileiros. Mas petralha é petralha. Caminha em linha reta rumo ao abismo, como escrevia Tocqueville dos revolucionários, nas suas Memórias de 1848. Napoleão dizia: “Arranhai um russo, encontrareis um tártaro”. Fosse vivo o grande general francês, diria hoje, no Brasil: “Arranhai um petralha, encontrareis um comunista”. 

O que é lamentável é que, pela ignorância de muitos eleitores, pelas inúmeras bolsas que os governos foram criando ao longo destes doze anos (junto com o anúncio, utilizando os canais oficiais, de que os pobres veriam cortados estes benefícios caso a oposição ganhasse), pelo aparelhamento do Supremo Tribunal Federal e do Superior Tribunal Eleitoral pelos petralhas, pelos desvios de bilhões de reais dos cofres públicos para financiar a caixa do Partido, estes ganharam as eleições “no tapetão”, ou “fazendo o diabo” como gostam de dizer Dilma e o seu Ministro Chefe da Casa Civil, Gilberto Carvalho. Pior para o Brasil. Ruim para todos nós.

A mais recente pérola neste período pós-eleitoral (num clima de fim de festa, com a casa absolutamente desarrumada e a economia em bancarrota) foi o informe da dita “Comissão da Verdade”. Não repetirei aqui o teor das esdrúxulas conclusões apresentadas pelos membros da dita cuja, todos eles alinhados com a petralhada. Referir-me-ei ao espírito que anima tanto esse quanto os documentos anteriores produzidos pelos membros da tal Comissão. 

O pano de fundo que os animou é o de reescrever a história. O objetivo inicial assinalado à Comissão consistia em rever as transgressões aos direitos humanos ocorridas no longo período 1946-1985. As conclusões da Comissão centraram-se, no entanto, num período menor, exatamente o correspondente ao regime militar (1964-1985). Era clara a finalidade da Comissão: mais uma vez tentar desmoralizar os nossos militares que, no contexto da Guerra Fria, ganharam o combate contra os comunistas. Não tivessem as Forças Armadas combatido com denodo, como era seu dever, os comunistas que tentavam implantar no Brasil a Ditadura do Proletariado, teríamos mergulhado simplesmente na guerra civil, de forma semelhante a como países vizinhos viram se ensanguentar os seus territórios pela ação criminosa dos comunistas. 

Comunista não gosta de perder. Na Colômbia, onde nasci, muitos jovens morreram na opção errada de tentar combater as instituições republicanas pela luta armada. Tanto no meu país de nascença quanto em outros países da América Latina, inúmeros jovens sacrificaram-se nessa opção louca, sob a miragem do revolucionário Che Guevara. Eu mesmo me radicalizei e, no meu país, sofri as consequências por isso. Vários dos meus amigos que militaram nas fileiras da guerrilha foram mortos pelas Forças Armadas colombianas. Nunca, no entanto, passou pela minha cabeça cobrar dos colombianos “bolsa guerrilha” como muitos ex-militantes fizeram no Brasil. Achei isso, sempre, falta de caráter. Se lutei por um ideal errado, foi só pela minha decisão pessoal. A grandeza da minha opção, mesmo errada, consistia justamente nesse caráter de entrega a um ideal. Quando se passa a conta, o ideal vira desculpa e a heroicidade converte-se em negócio de mercenários.

Os petralhas querem, simplesmente, desmoralizar as Forças Armadas, conspurcando a memória dos líderes militares, passando-lhes a conta pela derrota que os comunistas sofreram no campo da luta armada. No festival de safadezas em que se converteram os governos petralhas, inclusive o da Dilma, a defesa dos comunas consiste em atacar a memória dos adversários, no processo que o delegado Tuminha denominou, com muita propriedade, de “assassinato de reputações”. Os corruptos militantes petralhas seguem, aqui, as lições de tática revolucionária dadas por Lenine há um século. 

Mas o que fica pelo chão é certamente o compromisso com a verdade. Só sendo muito ignorante ou cego pela ideologia para não perceber a jogada. Os petralhas tentaram, além de saquear o país, estabelecer o que Gramsci denominava de “Revolução Cultural”, consistente em destruir os valores fundantes da sociedade burguesa. Tudo é válido para isso: corromper as crianças com uma iniciação sexual tendenciosa no ciclo fundamental, atacar a religião e os valores da moral cristã, destruir a família mediante a divulgação maciça do erotismo e de novelas que deixem em ridículo aqueles que acreditam ainda nos valores tradicionais concernentes à moral familiar, semear a insegurança jurídica em torno à propriedade privada (só resguardando, em contas secretas na Suíça, os valores roubados à sociedade brasileira pelos dirigentes petralhas e os seus colaboradores), semeando uma ética do “politicamente correto” em face das críticas aos governos petralhas mediante a censura à imprensa livre e a intimidação, etc.

Cito, a seguir, a pergunta que fazia o Blog da Força Expedicionária Brasileira: “- Se o Lula, a Dilma e os seus ministros não sabiam do mensalão nem da corrupção na Petrobrás, porque é que os ex-presidentes militares e os seus ministros deveriam saber de eventual tortura em quartel? Não precisa explicar. Eu só queria entender!” 

Sempre defendi que a sociedade brasileira tem o direito a conhecer a verdade histórica, não apenas dos fatos ocorridos durante o ciclo militar, mas ao longo de toda a nossa história. Para isso, o melhor expediente é entregar essa tarefa aos historiadores. Poder-se-ia constituir uma comissão com esses profissionais (os há excelentes, entre os nossos intelectuais), a fim de que, superando as diferenças ideológicas, coloquem em claro o que realmente aconteceu em determinado período. Seja convidado, para tal efeito, a integrar essa comissão o Instituto Histórico e Geográfico Brasileiro (criado por Dom Pedro II em 1838, sendo mais antigo, portanto, que as nossas Universidades e que conta com uma respeitável trajetória no terreno da historiografia). Isso é plenamente válido. Mas não seria necessário, para esta finalidade, constituir, a partir do Governo, uma “Comissão da Verdade”, com a finalidade sub-reptícia de deitar por terra a Lei de Anistia, à luz da qual se pacificaram os espíritos na transição entre os governos militares e a Nova República.

Nenhum valor relativo ao conhecimento da verdade têm as afoitas conclusões da “Comissão da Verdade”. Esta não passou de mais uma tentativa gramsciana imposta em vão pela petralhada. O destino que espera a essa tal Comissão, bem como às suas conclusões, é simplesmente o esquecimento.

Email 

Visit website

Russia: tabelamento da vodca indica falencia proxima da economia

Os russos não podem sobreviver sem vodca. Não no inverno, em todo caso.

Situação é extremamente grave, ao que parece.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Putin ordena freio à alta do preço da vodca em meio a crise econômica

'Forte alta nos preços só leva ao aumento do consumo de piratas', disse.
Preço de venda mínimo regulamentado aumentou cerca de 30% em 1 ano.

Da Reuters

FACEBOOK

O presidente russo, Vladimir Putin (Foto: AP)

O presidente russo Vladimir Putin ordenou a seu governo nesta quarta-feira (24) que contenha o aumento dos preços da vodca, enquanto ele luta para preservar sua popularidade em meio a uma grave crise econômica.

Putin disse em uma reunião com oficiais do governo e governadores regionais que os altos preços da vodca incentivam a produção de bebidas falsificadas, que trazem mais riscos para a saúde das pessoas do que o álcool produzido legalmente.

A Rússia está enfrentando sua pior crise econômica desde 1998, quando o país desvalorizou o rublo e declarou moratória de sua dívida. A popularidade de Putin é parcialmente baseada em sua reputação por oferecer prosperidade e estabilidade.

saiba mais

• China oferece ajuda para Rússia superar crise do rublo
• Crise econômica na Rússia vai piorar, prevê 'Economist'
• Entenda a crise na Rússia e possíveis efeitos no Brasil
• Rublo despenca e operadores russos veem sombras da crise de 1998

"A forte alta nos preços da vodca só leva ao aumento do consumo de piratas (falsificados)", disse Putin, que é conhecido por promover um estilo de vida saudável. "Acho que as estruturas competentes (órgãos do governo) devem pensar nisso", acrescentou.

De acordo com um estudo de importantes universidades internacionais no ano passado, um quarto de todos os homens russos morre antes de atingir os cinquenta e poucos anos, e o amor pelo álcool - especialmente a vodca - é parcialmente responsável.

O preço de venda mínimo regulamentado pelo governo de meio litro de vodca aumentou cerca de 30% desde o ano passado para 220 rublos (o equivalente a US$ 4).

A economia da Rússia deve entrar em recessão em 2015 devido à queda dos preços do petróleo e à sanção ocidental devido à crise na Ucrânia. A inflação anual, por sua vez, deverá ser superior a 10%.

Votos de Bom Natal aos Leitores deste Blog Diplomatizzando - Paulo Roberto de Almeida e Carmen Lícia Palazzo de Almeida

A todos os meus "n" leitores, vários fieis, habituais, constantes e comentadores, outros mais  tímidos, discretos, visitantes eventuais, navegantes ocasionais, passantes por acaso, e mesmo aqueles que não gostam do que escrevo aqui, já que defendendo outras ideias, que não as que são aqui expostas e promovidas
-- que são, e sempre serão, as das mais amplas liberdades, as da democracia sem adjetivos, a da defesa intransigente dos direitos humanos, contra todas as tiranias, e até mesmo contra os projetos de tiranias, contra os incompetentes, corruptos, ou simplesmente equivocados --
enfim, todos aqueles que apreciam um bom debate de ideias, na base da informação de qualidade, no respeito às simples regras da lógica, e sobretudo na honestidade intelectual, a todos a cada um,
eu desejo:

um excelente Natal (qualquer que seja a sua religião; eu, por exemplo, não tenho nenhuma, mas o Natal já faz parte de nossas tradições culturais, e até entre povos não ocidentais e não cristãos),

um bom descanso reflexivo (não coma muito, não se empaturre, use a folga para ler bons livros, ou simplesmente para espairecer, descansar, refletir sobre o que você fez, e o que pretende fazer),

meus votos de um feliz final de ano (quando todos nós procuramos estar em família, a própria, ou qualquer uma que você considere sua, como uma confraria de bibliófilos, digamos assim, ou de bebedores de cerveja, ou apreciadores de vinho),

e grandes planos para 2015 (seja individualmente, seja no plano profissional, ou no contexto do país, que certamente merece algo melhor do que o que temos tido até aqui, e ainda teremos no futuro imediato, hélas),

com alguma realização que você possa considerar sua (eu, por exemplo, pretendo escrever, finalmente, um segundo volume de uma história da diplomacia econômica, e deixo registro deste meu projeto, para que eu, e qualquer um, possa me cobrar durante o ano).

Deixo, acima, um cartão natalino feito por Carmen Lícia, que tem enriquecido a minha vida durante todos estes anos de convivência afetiva, amorosa, intelectual, minha guia primorosa em todos os nossos empreendimentos e viagens culturais, companheira de leituras e apoio inestimável em todas as etapas, e em todas as circunstâncias.
Um abraço a todos e os meus bons votos.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida 
Hartford, CT, 24 de dezembro de 2014, 17h40