Comparing the Size and Capabilities of the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries - Molly Carlough and Benjamin Harris (Foreign Affairs)

 Comparing the Size and Capabilities of the Russian and Ukrainian Militaries

By Molly Carlough and Benjamin Harris

Foreign Affairs, June 3, 2025 5:48 pm (EST)

Russia holds a sizable advantage over Ukraine on troop numbers and weaponry yet the two sides have fought to a standstill. Russia this spring has ramped up attacks on civilian targets while resisting U.S. ceasefire calls.

Where does the battlefield stand?

By the spring of 2025, the conflict had reached a relative stalemate. The current front line runs over six hundred miles from the Kherson region in southern Ukraine to the Luhansk region, part of the Donbas, in the east. Russia controls roughly 20 percent of Ukraine and continues to make incremental gains. Recent analysis indicates that Russia has accelerated its territorial advances, capturing an average of 5.5 square miles per day this month—more than double the rate in April, according to a Ukrainian war monitoring organization. Reports indicate that Russia has concentrated almost half of its attacks this year in the area around Pokrovsk, a logistical and supply hub for Ukraine’s military in the east. Russia also continues to inflict heavy damage on Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and major population centers with long-range missile and drone strikes. However, Ukrainian forces have proven remarkably resilient.

Ukraine Maintains Control Over Most of Its Territory

BELARUS

Territory under Russian control as of May 2025

POLAND

Territory retaken by Ukraine

Kyiv

UKRAINE

RUSSIA

MOLDOVA

ROMANIA

0

100 km

BLACK

SEA

0

100 mi

Source:  Institute for the Study of War and American Enterprise Institute 

Since the February 2022 invasion, Ukrainian forces have regained over 50 percent of the territory seized by Russia, notably preventing the capture of Kyiv and forcing the withdrawal of Russian forces from northern Ukraine during the early stages of the war. Russia launched a series of new offensives that gained ground in 2024, but Ukraine’s military managed to slow Russia’s rate of advance in recent months.

Despite Russia and Ukraine’s various successes, neither side has managed a significant territorial breakthrough in recent months. As a result, the fighting has devolved into a war of attrition.

What losses have Russia and Ukraine’s militaries suffered?

Russia maintains the military advantage it held prior to the invasion in February 2022, though both militaries have incurred heavy losses over the course of the war. Around 750,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war thus far, according to a March 2025 U.S. intelligence report. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said a month earlier that Ukraine’s forces had suffered more than 425,000 casualties during the conflict. Still, Russia is estimated to have a total of 1.1 million active-duty soldiers, roughly 600,000 of which are deployed in or near Ukraine. In contrast, Ukraine has roughly 880,000 active-duty personnel, Zelenskyy said earlier this year, though other estimates vary.