Fresh news from Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine (February 14, 2023)
CDS Daily brief (13.02.2023) CDS comments on key events
Snapshot of the day: General, humanitarian:
· 8 Ukrainian regions came under Russian fire on February 12. At least 4 civilians died, and 3 were injured;
· Two districts of Kharkiv experience water shortages in the aftermath of the February 10 attacks;
· The is no electric power shortage in the power system; however, scheduled blackouts are possible due to the damaged distribution system, in particular in Kyiv and Odesa;
· Ukraine's allies support the creation of the special tribunal for the Russian crime of aggression, and details of the mechanism for its creation are discussed;
· 60-80% of the occupied Sievierodonetsk have no utility services. Medicines and food are available, although expensive. The mortality rate is high.
· 13 NGOs joined the working group on the creation of an anticorruption advisory body under the Ministry of Defense. Deputy Minister replacements are expected at the Ministry;
· Ukraine will need 50 000 people to staff military and military-civilian administrations in Crimea after its liberation.
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1. International:
· The governments of the US and France are calling on their citizens to leave Russia and Belarus. Meanwhile, Chinese Foreign Minister will travel to Moscow. The Hungarian Foreign Minister will visit Minsk for a "peacemaking" mission. Neither Ukraine nor the EU nor anyone else has asked him to make the trip.
· The Chairman of the Munich Security Conference didn't provide Sergey Lavrov with a "propaganda platform" opportunity. Instead, Christoph Heusgen called the allies not to "put red lines' on fighter jets for Ukraine."
· Ukraine's Defence Minister outlined the agenda of the 9th Ramstein meeting, while NATO Secretary-General called on the allies to strengthen support for Ukraine, including by boosting the defense industry's production.
Russia allegedly planned a coup d’état in Moldova to deny the country ability to integrate into the EU and increase threats to Ukraine's South.
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Tribunal for Russian Aggression
The head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, held a working group meeting on creating a special international tribunal for the crime of aggression against Ukraine. Yermak noted that most of Ukraine's allies support its initiative: "Today, almost all of them say that they are ready to participate in the creation of the tribunal. We no longer discuss the possibility of the idea itself, but the specific mechanisms to create it."
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Azov-Black Sea Maritime Operational Area:
The forces of the Russian Black Sea Fleet continue to stay ready to carry out two operational tasks against Ukraine:
· to project force on the coast and the continental part of Ukraine by launching missile strikes from surface ships, submarines, coastal missile systems, and aircraft at targets in the coastal zone and deep into the territory of Ukraine and readiness for the naval amphibious landing to assist ground forces in the coastal direction
· to control the northwestern part of the Black Sea by blocking Ukrainian ports and preventing the restoration of sea communications by carrying out attacks on ports and ships and concealed mine-laying.
The ultimate goal is to deprive Ukraine of access to the Black Sea and extend and maintain control over the captured territory and Ukraine's coastal regions.
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1. Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.02.23
Personnel - almost 138,340 people (+560) Tanks - 3,283 (+3)
Armored combat vehicles – 6,492 (+4); Artillery systems – 2,290 (+3);
Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) - 465 (0); Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 234 (0); Vehicles and fuel tanks – 5,150 (+2); Aircraft - 296 (0);
Helicopters – 286 (0);
UAV operational and tactical level – 2,007 (0);
Intercepted cruise missiles - 857 (0);
Boats/ships – 18 (0).
1. Ukraine, general news
The Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Valery Zaluzhny, believes that the victory of Ukraine should mean not only the liberation of its territories but also the strengthening of the Ukrainian army so that Russia will never attack Ukraine again. Zaluzhny said this in his conversation with the Supreme Commander of the NATO Joint Forces in Europe and the Commander of the US Armed Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli.
Security Service of Ukraine conducted counter-sabotage exercises near the border with Belarus, SBU reported. The exercise plot involved "saboteurs" disguised as civilians who secretly infiltrated the region's territory.
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International diplomatic aspect
While the French Foreign Ministry advised their citizens to "leave Belarus without delay," the US State Department called on its citizens to "depart Russia immediately" "due to the unpredictable consequences of the unprovoked full-scale invasion of Ukraine by Russian military forces, the potential for harassment and the singling out of US citizens for detention by Russian government security officials, the arbitrary enforcement of local law, limited flights into and out of Russia, the Embassy's limited ability to assist US citizens in Russia, and the possibility of terrorism.»
Meanwhile, the Chinese Foreign Minister will visit Moscow, and the Hungarian Foreign Minister will fly to Minsk. He is the first high official to visit Belarus since the all-out invasion. "Human lives must be saved, and that can only be done with peace. Hungary expects all members of the international community to act in order to ensure immediate peace and to avoid steps that risk prolonging or escalating the war. I will also represent this peace position at today's negotiations in Minsk," Péter Szijjártó wrote on his Facebook. Ukraine hasn't asked the Hungarian government for any mediating role. Moreover, the government and Ukrainian people were outraged by the comments made by the pro-Russian Prime Minister for the American Conservative. Neither the EU as the institution nor Germany and France, as leading nations in it, didn't ask for or agree on Hungary's "peacemaking" role. The Hungarian government has been playing a negative role by blocking tougher sanctions, refusing to provide military assistance to Ukraine or even using Hungarian territory for its delivery. Hungary has been blocking NATO projects with Ukraine and, along with Turkey, is blocking the membership of Sweden and Finland in the Alliance.
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Russia, relevant news
Russian media reported that Vladimir Makarov, a major general and former deputy head of the department for the fight against "extremism" of the Russian MIA, committed suicide near Moscow. Makarov was fired from his post at the Ministry of Internal Affairs' counter-extremism department (also known as Center "E") in January of this year. "Meduza" reports that Center "E" is a repressive body whose employees persecute participants of protest actions and, in particular, monitor publications on social networks criticizing the authorities.
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