Uma proposta para o impasse na Ucrânia - Graham Allison

Ending the War in Ukraine: Was Milley Right?

As Ukrainian President Zelensky awaits negotiations to end Russia’s war in his country, I recommend in my latest for Foreign Policy that he should reflect on an earlier chapter. In November 2022, Mark Milley, then US chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, argued controversially that Ukraine was bogged down in a stalemate and should seize a “window of opportunity for negotiation.” Although nothing came of his proposal, Milley’s Ukrainian counterpart, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, concluded a year later the time had come to say the forbidden word in Kyiv: “stalemate.” Entering the war’s fourth year, President Trump and Vice President Vance face the same ugly realities and have come to the same conclusion Milley and Zaluzhnyi did. Had Milley’s proposal ended the war by early 2023, over 300,000 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians would have been spared and swaths of critical infrastructure left intact. Instead, Ukraine’s economy remains below prewar levels, and a quarter of its citizens are displaced. As Trump told Zelensky last month, “you’re not winning this.” Rather than deny brute facts or persuade an unpersuadable Trump, or wait for a European Godot, Zelensky should focus on Ukraine’s achievement: preserving the country’s independence. Zelensky must now negotiate an ugly but sustainable peace. As Zelensky accepts this reality, I suggest seven pointers: First, Zelensky must show Trump respect—with a capital R. Second, Ukraine must seek to survive within Russia’s de facto sphere of influence. Third, Ukraine must settle for an extended cease-fire or armistice. Fourth, Zelensky should forget NATO. Fifth, Zelensky should consider Trump’s suggestion that “China can help” in a peace agreement. Sixth, peace cannot be a respite for Putin to rearm. Finally, Ukraine’s best hope lies in a path to EU membership. If you have reactions, I’ll be interested to receive them. Regards,Graham Allison