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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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terça-feira, 3 de março de 2015

Malucos nucleares: iranianos, israelenses, norte-coreanos, paquistaneses, russos, etc...

Que o mundo anda cheio de malucos, isto a gente já sabe. Que alguns ocupem o poder supremo em seus próprios países, isso a gente também já sabe, inclusive por experiência própria, ou acontecendo por aí, nas periferias da vida...
Mas que alguns desses malucos estejam na posse de armas nucleares, e talvez até dispostos a usá-los, isto já é preocupante, e no entanto isso também existe, e as matérias deste dia refletem essa situação maluca em torno de malucos proliferadores, e outros que tentam reverter a situação...
Não bastasse os impasses das negociações do Irã com o P5+1 em torno do seu programa nuclear, e o provável fracasso da fase atual (que deve terminar na última semana de março), vamos ter provavelmente sanções mais fortes contra o Irã a serem aprovadas pelo Congresso americano contra esse país, o que vai melar ainda mais as negociações, provavelmente interrompendo-as por mais alguns meses, talvez até um ano mais.
O primeiro ministro de Israel acaba de se dirigir ao Congresso americano, contra a vontade e até a oposição do executivo, mas pode ter convencido mais alguns a aprovar as sanções.
Em todo caso, temos muitas notícias ruins esta semana, que eu coleciono aqui, para os malucos por informação (como este que aqui escreve) em torno dos malucos da proliferação que existem por ai...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida


Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu waves as he steps to the podium prior to speaking before a joint meeting of Congress on Capitol Hill, March 3, 2015. (AP)

Iran Already Has Nuclear Weapons Capability
Op-ed by Graham Allison
Foreign Policy

There is no way to erase from the minds of thousands of Iranian scientists and engineers the knowledge and skills to produce weapons-grade uranium. There is no way to eliminate Iran’s indigenous capacity to mine uranium, manufacture centrifuges, or operate them. Thus, there is no conceivable end to this story in which Iran will not retain the capability to build nuclear weapons.
...
If we accept what we cannot deny, the strategic question becomes how to persuade Iran’s supreme leader that while Iran has an irreversible technical capability, it does not have — and will not be allowed to acquire — an exercisable nuclear weapons option.
Read more...

Netanyahu says U.S. is on verge of ‘bad deal’ with Iran over nuclear program
In a rousing speech before Congress punctuated by more than 40 bursts of applause, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assailed the Obama administration’s nuclear negotiations with Iran, asserting bluntly that the United States was on the verge of making “a bad deal.” (The Washington Post, March 3, 2015)

Proliferation News, March 3, 2015

Netanyahu Warns That Nuclear Deal 'Paves Iran's Path' to a Bomb
Katie Zezima | Washington Post
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forcefully argued against a nuclear deal with Iran, telling a joint meeting of Congress that such an agreement would have the opposite effect of what the international community intends, by effectively supplying Iran with the means to produce a nuclear weapon. Any agreement "doesn't block Iran's path to the bomb, it paves Iran's path to the bomb," Netanyahu said. "So why would anyone make this deal?"

Iran Calls Obama's 10-Year Nuclear Demand 'Unacceptable'
Arshad Mohammed | Reuters
Iran on Tuesday rejected as "unacceptable" U.S. President Barack Obama's demand that it freeze sensitive nuclear activities for at least 10 years, but said it would continue talks aimed at securing a deal, Iran's semi-official Fars news agency reported.

James Acton | Can Iran Sell a Nuclear Deal Domestically?

IAEA: Iran Still Withholding Key Information
Haaretz
The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog said on Monday Iran had still not handed over key information to his staff, and his body's investigation into Tehran's atomic programme could not continue indefinitely.

Iran Looking Into Developing Small Reactors
Tehran Times
"During the recent talks with U.S. negotiators in Geneva, U.S. Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said Washington is also looking into the same strategy," AEOI chief Ali Akbar Salehi said.

Russia 'Ready to Repel Any Nuke Strike, Retaliate'
RT
"If there's a challenge to repel a lightning-fast nuclear strike in any given conditions – it will be done in fixed time, that's dead true," the Strategic Missile Forces Central Command's chief, Major-General Andrey Burbin, told Russian News Service on Saturday.

Andrew Weiss | Putin the Improviser

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