Parece que a deterioração se aprofunda em ritmo mais rápido...
Isso não contando a igualmente preocupante deterioração das contas públicas.
Ou seja, o Brasil se aproxima de uma crise de transações correntes e uma crise fiscal.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazil Macro Flash: Worse Current Account Deficit in July
- In July, the current account amounted -US$9.0 billion, significantly worse than our estimate and market consensus. Over the last 12 months, the current account deficit reached US$77.7 billion (from US$72.6 billion in June), or 3.4% of GDP. Looking forward, despite expecting that current account deficit will continue approaching US$80 billion in coming months, our call of growth deceleration ahead and the more depreciated level of BRL suggests a better figure next year compared to this year. Finally, FDI inflows amounted US$5.2 billion in July and US$62.3 billion in the last 12 months, financing by around 80% of the current account deficit during this period.
- In July, the trade balance amounted -US$1.9 billion, services and income balance posted a deficit of US$7.4 billion, while current transfers reached US$0.3 billion.
- Focusing on services and income accounts, the profits and dividends balance reached -US$1.2 billion, while international travel deficit amounted to US$1.7 billion. The main error in our estimate was in net interest payments which posted deficit of US$2.1 billion in July, representing the worst monthly figure since December/12.
- FDI inflows came in at US$5.2 billion in July, in line with our and market expectation. In the last 12 months, FDI inflows amounted US$62.3 billion, therefore lower than the current account deficit in the same period.
- Overall, we expect current account deficit to increase to close to US$80 billion (3.5% of GDP) this year, reducing to around US$71 billion next year (3.1% of GDP), reflecting the adjustments triggered by a more depreciated real exchange rate and lower GDP growth.
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