O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

Meu Twitter: https://twitter.com/PauloAlmeida53

Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/paulobooks

quinta-feira, 16 de julho de 2020

Yale debate about Global Leadership: The Future of Great Power Conflict - My comments

A propósito de uma live com John Lewis Gaddis, Oona Hathaway, James Stavridis e John Negroponte, organizada pelo Yale University Jackson Institute of Global Affairs,  

Hi Paulo de Almeida, 

Thank you for attending The Jackson McLarty Summer Series on Global Leadership: The Future of Great Power Conflict. We hope you enjoyed our event.

Please submit your questions or comments to: choule@maglobal.com.

You can watch a recording of the session here: https://jackson.yale.edu/video/event-recording-the-future-of-great-power-conflict/

We hope you'll be able to join us for future events.

Respondi o que segue: 

Dear Yale scholars, and participants at the webinar about The Great Power Conflict, 
I have followed with great attention the analyses and comments, and my first comment deals precisely with the title: why Great Power Conflict? There is something fatalistic about that? Is it a kismet? Or could it be an inevitable outcome of current conspiratorial thinking among people afflicted by the “declinist feeling”?
Since 1945 at least, or since Briand-Kellog – one of the objects of a book by Prof. Oona Hathaway – international relations are directed to peaceful solution of conflicts, arbitration, mediation, and since UN onwards, multilateral cooperation towards peace and security. 
It is perhaps symptomatic that you have chose the concept of Great Power Conflict, which reproduce, probably, the state of mind of a large sector of the American establishment. I identify this state of mind with the “normal” paranoia of the Pentagon, but not, up to this moment, with the Academia. I said “normal”, because we expect military to be paranoid, otherwise how could them capture the budget for their purposes?
But members of the Academia could be more scholarly normal, than the “normal paranoids” among the Armed Forces. 
What are the evidences that China is in a course to challenge the US world power hegemony? Does China really pretend to export its political system? What you have done with the old proposal about a Chimerica, a true complementarity economic project between two truly complementary economies and markets? 
This “Thucydides curse” has real empirical grounds? Or is it only a false analogy of a past “thesis” which no longer holds any consistency, and supports no general application? 
Do you not think that the military build-up in China could represent a mere response to the American overstretch in the Asia Pacific region?
Frankly, I think that Americans, both military and people from the Academia, are having some malaise as they discover that the American century extended for less than a century. The 21st century will be more exciting…
All the best, and my compliments for the webinar. 
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Nenhum comentário: