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terça-feira, 7 de março de 2023

Why Russia “Unable To Defeat Ukraine”: Rulers, Laws, Money and Men - Barry Gander (Medium)

 Por que a Russia vai perder?

Barry Gander

Mar 6, 2023


Why Russia “Unable To Defeat Ukraine”: Rulers, Laws, Money and Men

Arma de fogo e fumaça

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A retired colonel in Russia’s military intelligence organization says that the Russian army is “unable to defeat Ukraine.” Igor Girkin told an audience in St. Petersburg how he had predicted in May 2022 that Russia had already “failed” in what it calls a “special military operation” because there was no mobilization under way. Girkin believes that Russian armed forces cannot manage with the personnel they have. Putin is no longer leading the war effort, which Girkin calls “a complete failure.”

Girkin led the government of the separatist Donetsk Region, and resigned in 2014 when a missile from his command downed a civilian Malaysian aircraft.

Girkin denies having responsibility for the action; transcripts at the time show that he was under the impression that the plane was a Ukrainian Air Force jet.


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His accusations of incompetence have been echoed by Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of Putin’s private mercenary army Wagner Group. Prigozhin has accused Army officials of “treason” and attempting to “destroy” his army. He criticized the lack of ammunition provided to Wagner, complaining “I have no options. I’m going to the end, I have people dying in droves because some strange people made a decision whether they’ll live or not.” Wagner, made up of convict soldiers, has suffered more than 30,000 casualties in Ukraine.

These accusations are not being heard by the Russian people.

In the time between the invasion of Ukraine in February and the end of the year Russia has blocked access to the Internet for its 113-million users at a cost to the country of $21.6-billion.

It is the single most expensive Internet blockage of the year.

The actions consist of throttling and then blocking access to social media sites and news outlets.

Iran came in second, then Kazakhstan and then Myanmar.

Interface gráfica do usuário, Aplicativo

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Aside from the cost, the glaring statement that seems to come from this action is: if you are in the right with a just cause, why are you blocking the Internet?

I don’t doubt that Russian Internet users are aware of the outages and the reasons, so who does Putin think he’s fooling? The size of the lies he tells is just devastating if he has to block everyone else from hearing the world.

His people would heat that Russia has now lost 200,000 soldiers and more than 1,800 officers killed and wounded, according to the Supreme Commander of the Joint NATO Forces in Europe and Commander of the U.S. Armed Forces in Europe, General Christopher Cavoli.

Russia has also lost more than 2,000 battle tanks. On average, the Russian army fires off more than 23,000 artillery rounds per day. Cavoli pointed out that the lesson of the Cold War is that precision matters. The production capacity of defense industries is also important. According to the commander, the one who can produce ammunition the fastest wins the war.

And here, Russia has a cash problem of immense proportion.

Putin does not have the resources for a protracted war, according to Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska. Speaking at the Krasnoyarsk Economic Forum he said “Everything is plundered, betrayed, sold”.

And then the money runs out.

Deripaska directly stated that there would be no money in Russia “next year”. Funds are now running low and “that’s why they’ve already begun to shake us down,” said Deripaska, founder of United Co, Rusal International PJSC, the biggest aluminum producer outside China.

He was referring to the new Russian government practice of milking large companies; last year ended with a record fiscal deficit and the budget still deep in the red to start 2023.

He added that Putin’s disinformation campaign is founded on the fable that Russia can keep this war going indefinitely. That is totally wrong.

The military reversals are having an effect on the Russian ground troops, who are often refusing to attack due to heavy losses. A Russian battalion in the 20th division of the 255th regiment of the 1st motorized rifle battalion of the 2nd motorized rifle company said in a video “We want them to stop sending us to senseless assaults as expendable material. We are ordinary people from the citizenry.” The battalion was serving in the Kherson/Donetsk region. They added: “For example, on February 22, 2023, we were sent to the slaughter, as a matter of fact. We stormed a village with well-fortified positions of the Armed Forces. Before the assault, the command promised us that there would be artillery training, there would be support. But this did not happen. We were simply sent to storm under enemy fire artillery, where we suffered losses already on the approaches.”

This is not an aberration; this is a habit of Russian command.

Speaking of the battle, Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, said that Russia has not yet taken control of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast, and there has been no mass withdrawal of Ukraine’s troops. Though the situation is perilous, Cherevatyi said “The fighting in Bakhmut is more on the outskirts, with the city controlled by Ukrainian defense forces: the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Border Guard and the National Guard. There is also no mass withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.”

Reports of the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops may have originated in the regular practice of rotating positions in Bakhmut in controlled, planned phases, he said.

Thus far, Cherevatyi said there have been hostilities surrounding Bakhmut, in the villages of Vasiukivka and Dubovo-Vasylivka to the north of the city, and in the villages of Ivanivske and Bohdanivka to the west. “There were 21 enemy attacks with the use of various artillery systems and MLRS near Bakhmut alone, and 9 combat engagements. 131 attacks and 38 combat engagements took place on this front in total.” Over 150 Russian soldiers were killed and 239 were wounded, and 3 were taken prisoner.

Farther from the front line a number of blasts were heard in the area of Russia’s air base in Gvardiyske in occupied Crimea. According to eyewitness reports, explosions rocked the area of the airbase in Simferopol district. Plumes of black smoke are coming up from the site, reports say. In Bakhchisarai, an explosion was reported in the area of a Russian military base. Blasts were also heard in Yalta, Gurzuf, and other settlements on the southern coast of the peninsula.

The people responsible for the deaths of so many soldiers and civilians will be punished. The wheels of justice have started to grind fine for Russian war criminals. The International Centre for the Investigation of Crimes of Aggression of the Russian Federation will begin its work in The Hague in the summer. The creation of this centre was supported by Eurojust, the International Criminal Court in partnership with Lithuania, Poland, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia and Romania. The coalition for the creation of a special tribunal for Russia already includes 29 states.

Ukrainian courts will soon begin considering criminal proceedings on war crimes of the Russian Federation concerning the genocide of the Ukrainian People en masse, Vsevolod Kniazev, Chairman of the Supreme Court said. The Ukrainian court is in fact already considering one case of genocide.

Additional support is continuously being announced for Ukraine. Britain has doubled the number of Challenger 2 tanks that will be provided, from 14 to 28. Each tank costs $5-million, for a total of $140-million. Allied aid for Ukraine has been deep and long: Canada alone has trained 35,000 Ukrainian troops since 2015, has given $1-billion in aid, and has shipped 35,000 tons of suppliers since the war began.

A rumour is circulating that hints at a further problem for Putin. His fanatical ally Ramzan Kadyrov, head of Chechnyan contingent of Putin’s invasion force, may have terminal bladder cancer. He has been a despotic, pro-Kremlin leader of the Chechen Republic since 2007. The chief bladder cancer specialist of the United Arab Emirates, Dr. Yasin Ibrahim El-Shahat, has arrived in Grozny to treat him. “According to Akhmed Zakayev (the representative of the Ichkerian Cabinet in exile), Kadyrov is ill and has already become a drug addict” according to a local journalist. Waves of Russian nationals came to Dubai to reside and invest their money into property, where it would be safeguarded from Western sanctions.

While the rich plan their escape, the ordinary Russian soldiers continue to die. Cannon fodder is being minced at record speed. Shells, rockets, equipment are being eaten up much faster than they can be produced. The money is running out. The soldiers are getting fed up. The economy is deflating. The Internet is silenced.

I’ve been to the UAE. Nice place. These days, I suppose I would run into many Russians and Belarusians; I would congratulate them on their choice of venue.

In their first-class hotel accommodations they can turn on the Internet and watch the magic show where Russia disappears.

Spoiler alert: it was an inside job.

Articles on Russia or the Ukraine by Barry Gander:

The Five Wars of Vladimir Putin

Update on Drone Strikes In Russia — Ukraine Denies Responsibility

Russian Support For War Seems To Be Dropping

Drone Strikes Inside Russia Raise New Questions About Competence

Russia Wants to “Push Back” The Borders of Poland

As The Hot War Expands, It Cools

The Russia-China Hub A Year Later

Inside The Mind of Vladimir Putin — Why ‘Hitler 2.0’ Has To Be Ended

They Want To Destroy Russia: Putin’s Mirror World v.s. ‘Amtrack Joe’ Biden in Kyiv

20 Million Russian Casualties: The Incredible Price Needed To Conquer Ukraine

97% of Countries Support Ukraine; 3% (Plus Musk) Support Russia


Musk Says Ukraine (Not Russia) Could Start WW3 — Seriously!

Wagner Gives Death, Not Freedom, To Russian Criminals

Europe’s Largest Reactor Has 2.5 Foot Depth of Water Before Nuclear Nightmare

Republican “Leaders” Support Putin As The Russian Offensive Gets Underway

Musk’s Starlink Continues To Be A Lever Against Ukraine

How Long Can Russia Afford Its War?

Post-War Russia Will Look Radically Different

Putin’s Invasion Accelerates War’s “Third Revolution”: AI

Can Russia Afford The War?

Putin’s Dark Secret: You Need Invasions To Stay Ahead of the Mob

The “Tanks” Debate Shows How Small Russia’s Circle of Friends Has Become

The Game That Cannot End In A Draw

The Republican Struggle Over Ukraine

When Does Russia End The War? What Is The ‘Gorbachev Moment’?

“Tanks For The Memories”

When Conspiracies Collide: The Bizarre Conflict Within QANON RUSSIA

Russia Feels The Pain of The Soledar Attack

Tanks Needed To Counter New Russian Mobilization; Beavers Take on Belarus

The Strange Slaughter-House Of The Russian Mind

Russians Lurking In Ukrainian Uniforms Strike From Within

Secrecy Breeds Incompetence: The Story of Russian Failure and Ukrainian Success

UPDATE — UKRAINIAN COUNTERATTACKS…Soledar Conflict Reveals Battles Between Russia’s Armies and Generals

Canada buys missiles — and gives them away, eh?

Russia Is Following Malthus’ Path Into Oblivion

Revisited For 1st Anniversary: The REAL Reason Russia is Losing

Russian Governor Tells Occupants In War’s Heartland: ‘Surrender If Ukrainians Break Through’

2023: Autocracies Crumble In Russia, China and Iran

Russia Stands Alone — And Loses Its Empire

The Remote-Control Killers Behind Putin’s Hail-Mary Missiles

Russians Can Now Surrender To A Robot (Drone)

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Winning A War Against A Mafia State: Russia’s Government By Gangs

More Russian Withdrawal Foreshadows Disintegration

From Starvation To Surplus: Ukraine’s Incredible Recovery From Russian Genocide

Russia Tosses Its Soldiers Into A Meat-Grinder

Russian Analysis: Five Million Soldiers Needed

Seizing Crimea: Russians Tire As The War Comes Full Circle

Workers In Russia’s Most Exposed Sector Flee A Doomsday War

The Victim’s Bodies Fell From The Sky Over The Sunflowers Of The Ukraine

Ukrainian Forces Cross Dnieper!? — Epic Bad Day for Putin.

Russia’s Plunge Into Agricultural and Industrial Disaster

Ukrainian Shock-Waves Jar Loose Russian Border States

Russian Collaborator Dies As Ukrainian Forces Close In, EU Talks Begin

November 8th and the Future of America, Ukraine, Russia and China

When People Are Pieces: Putin Keeps Dropping Pawns

Russia Has Been Weaker Than Ukraine From the Start

Putin Makes Russia Irrelevant in Grain as Well as Oil

Putin: It’s All YOUR Fault

Iran is Joining the War — Thanks Donald

Winter is Coming: What Cold Will Do to Putin’s Attacks

Russia Is Fighting Yesterday’s War As Putin’s Empire Cracks

Russian Conscripts Shoot Commander and Surrender

Why Putin Will Not Use A Nuke

Killer in the Kremlin

How Revolutions Start: The Women of Iran and the Russian Protests

Rat-Boy Putin is Four Million Men Short

Ukraine’s Break-Through Triggers Calls of Treason Against Putin

Putin’s Most Incompetent Murder (So Far)

Russia’s Desperate Inequality

The Pathway Paved With Tombstones: How Putin Murdered His Way To The Top

A Bomb Attempt on ‘Putin’s Brain’ Is The First Shot Fired Within Russia’s Elite

Russia Is Disappearing From The World Stage

Russia’s Erosion Accelerates — Lithuania Slams The Door Shut

Russia Is Dissolving: Half of Its Population and One-Third of Its Land Are gone

America-Russia-China: Last Man Standing?

Paths to Peace In Ukraine

Maidez on Mayday: What A Parade Says About Hollow Leaders

Russia’s Frenzied Struggle Against The Rising Tide of Global Freedom

The Real Reason Russia Is Losing Is Really Basic

Hardtach and Kolach: What They Reveal About The Russian Invasion

The Dome That’s Covering Putin

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President Biden Does Good In The Ukraine


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I'm a Canadian from Connecticut, so 2 strikes against me. I'm a top writer in 5 fields, & I love finding the Meaning under the passing headlines.

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Barry Gander



I'm a Canadian from Connecticut, so 2 strikes against me. I'm a top writer in 5 fields, & I love finding the Meaning under the passing headlines.

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