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Mostrando postagens com marcador Margaret MacMillan. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador Margaret MacMillan. Mostrar todas as postagens

quinta-feira, 19 de abril de 2018

The War that Ended Peace: The Road to 1914 - Margaret MacMillan

The War That Ended Peace: The Road to 1914 

https://www.amazon.com.br/War-That-Ended-Peace-Road/dp/0812980662

Chapter 1

Europe in 1900

On April 14, 1900, Emile Loubet, the President of France, talked approvingly about justice and human kindness as he opened the Paris Universal Exposition. There was little kindness to be found in the press comments at the time. The exhibitions were not ready; the site was a dusty mess of building works; and almost everyone hated the giant statue over the entrance of a woman modeled on the actress Sarah Bernhardt and dressed in a fashionable evening dress. Yet the Exposition went on to be a triumph, with over 50 million visitors.

In style and content the Exposition partly celebrated the glories of the past and each nation displayed its national treasures—whether paintings, sculptures, rare books or scrolls—and its national activities. So where the Canadian pavilion had piles of furs, the Finnish showed lots of wood, and the Portuguese decorated their pavilion with ornamental fish. Many of the European pavilions mimicked great Gothic or Renaissance buildings, although little Switzerland built a chalet. The Chinese copied a part of the Forbidden City in Beijing and Siam (today Thailand) put up a pagoda. The Ottoman Empire, that dwindling but still great state which stretched from the Balkans in southern Europe through Turkey to the Arab Middle East, chose a pavilion which was a jumble of styles, much like its own peoples who included Christians, Muslims and Jews and many different ethnicities. With colored tiles and bricks, arches, towers, Gothic windows, elements of mosques, of the Grand Bazaar from Constantinople (now Istanbul), it was fitting that the overall result still somehow resembled the Hagia Sophia, once a great Christian church that became a mosque after the Ottoman conquest.

Germany’s pavilion was surmounted by a statue of a herald blowing a trumpet, suitable, perhaps, for the newest of the great European powers. Inside was an exact reproduction of Frederick the Great’s library; tactfully the Germans did not focus on his military victories, many of them over France. The western facade hinted, though, at a new rivalry, the one which was developing between Germany and the world’s greatest naval power, Great Britain: a panel showed a stormy sea with sirens calling and had a motto rumored to be written by Germany’s ruler, Kaiser Wilhelm II, himself: “Fortune’s star invites the courageous man to pull up the anchor and throw himself into the conquest of the waves.” Elsewhere at the Exposition were reminders of the rapidly burgeoning power of a country that had only come into existence in 1871; the Palace of Electricity contained a giant crane from Germany which could lift 25,000 kilos.

Austria-Hungary, Germany’s closest friend in Europe, had two separate pavilions, one for each half of what had come to be known as the Dual Monarchy. The Austrian one was a triumph of Art Nouveau, the new style which had been catching on in Europe. Marble cherubs and dolphins played around its fountains, giant statues held up its staircases and every inch of its walls appeared to be covered by gold leaf, precious stones, happy or sad masks, or garlands. A grand reception room was set aside for members of the Habsburg family which had presided for centuries over the great empire stretching from the center of Europe down to the Alps and Adriatic, and the exhibits showed off the work of Poles, Czechs, and South Slavs from the Dalmatian coast, only some of the Dual Monarchy’s many peoples. Next to the Austrian pavilion and separating it from that of Hungary stood a smaller one, representing the little province of Bosnia, still technically part of the Ottoman Empire but administered since 1878 from Vienna. The Bosnian pavilion, with its lovely decorations by craftsmen from its capital of Sarajevo, looked, said the guide published by Hachette, like a young girl being brought out into the world for the first time by her parents.1 (And they were not particularly happy ones at that.)

The mood of the Hungarian pavilion was strongly nationalistic. (Austrian critics said sourly that the folk art on display was vulgar and its colors too bright.) The exhibits also included a reconstruction of the great citadel of Comorn (Komáron) in the north which stood in the way of the Ottomans in the sixteenth century as they stretched northwards into Europe. Much more recently, in 1848, it had been held by Hungarian nationalists in the revolt against the Habsburgs but had fallen to Austrian forces in 1849. Another room was dedicated to the Hussars, famous for their bravery in the wars against the Ottomans. The exhibits paid less attention though to the millions of non-Hungarian peoples, Croatians or Rumanians, for example, who lived within Hungary’s borders.

Italy, like Germany a new country and a great power more by courtesy than in reality, had built what looked like a vast, richly decorated cathedral. On its golden dome stood a giant eagle, its wings outstretched in triumph. Inside it was filled with art from the Middle Ages and the Renaissance, but the glories of the past could weigh heavily on a poor young country. Britain, by contrast, chose to be low key even though it still dominated much of the world’s trade and manufacturing and had the world’s biggest navy and largest empire. Its exhibit was housed in a cozy country house designed by rising young architect Edwin Lutyens in the half-timbered Tudor style and consisted mainly of English paintings from the eighteenth century. Some private British owners had refused to lend their works because Britain’s relations with France, traditionally difficult, were particularly strained in 1900.2

Russia had pride of place at the Exposition as France’s favored ally. The Russian exhibits were huge and scattered in several different locations, ranging from a massive palace in the style of the Kremlin dedicated to Siberia to a richly decorated pavilion named in honor of the Tsar’s mother, Empress Marie. Visitors could admire, among much else, a map of France made in precious stones which the Tsar, Nicholas II, had sent as a present to the French and marvel at the sheer extent of the Romanovs’ possessions. The French themselves did not have their own pavilion; the whole Exposition was after all designed to be a monument to French civilization, French power, French industry and agriculture, and French colonies, and room after room in the different special exhibits was devoted to French achievements. The French section of the Palais des Beaux-Arts was, said the guide, naturally a model of good taste and luxury. The Exposition marked the reassertion by France that it was still a great power, even though only thirty years previously it had been utterly defeated as it had tried to prevent Germany coming into existence.

The Universal Exposition was nevertheless, the French declared, a “symbol of harmony and peace” for all of humanity. Although the more than forty countries exhibiting in Paris were mainly European, the United States, China, and several Latin American countries also had pavilions. As a reminder though of where power still lay, a large part of the Exposition was given over to colonies where the European powers showed off their possessions. The crowds could marvel at exotic plants and beasts, walk by replicas of African villages, watch craftsmen from French Indochina at their work, or shop in North African souks. “Supple dancing girls,” said an American observer severely, “perform the worst forms of bodily contortions known to the followers of Terpsichore.”3 Visitors came away with a comfortable assurance that their civilization was superior and that its benefits were being spread around the globe.

The Exposition seemed a suitable way to mark the end of a century which had started with revolutions and wars but which now stood for progress, peace and prosperity. Europe had not been entirely free of wars in the nineteenth century but they had been nothing to compare with the long struggles of the eighteenth century or the wars of the French Revolution and later those of Napoleon which had drawn in almost every European power. The wars of the nineteenth century had generally been short—like the one between Prussia and the Austrian Empire which had lasted for seven weeks—or colonial wars fought far from European soil. (The Europeans should have paid more attention to the American Civil War which not only lasted for four years but which gave an early warning that modern technology and the humble barbed wire and spades were shifting the advantage in war to the defense.) While the Crimean War in the middle of the century had involved four European powers, it was the exception. In the Austro-Prussian War, the Franco-Prussian, or the Russo-Turkish the other powers had wisely stayed out of the conflict and had done what they could to build peace again.

In certain circumstances war was still seen as a reasonable choice for nations if they could see no other way to obtain their goals. Prussia was not prepared to share control of the German states with Austria and Austria was determined not to concede. The war that followed settled the issue in Prussia’s favor. Resorting to war was costly but not excessively so. Wars were limited both in time and in their scope. Professional armies fought each other and damage to civilians and to property was minimal, certainly in light of what was to come. It was still possible to attack and win decisive victories. The Franco-Prussian War of 1870–71, though, like the American Civil War, hinted that armed conflict was changing: with conscription, armies were bigger, and better and more accurate weapons and increased firepower meant that the forces of the Prussians and their German allies suffered large casualties in the opening attacks on the French. And the surrender of the French army at Sedan did not end the fighting. Instead the French people, or large sections of it, chose to fight on in a people’s war. Yet even that had finally ended. France and the new Germany had made peace and their relations had gradually mended. In 1900 the Berlin business community sent a message for the opening of the Exposition to the Paris Chamber of Commerce, wishing success to “this great undertaking, which is destined to bring the civilized nations of the world nearer to one another in the labours common to them all.”4 The large numbers of German visitors who were expected to go to Paris would, so many in Germany hoped, help to build better relations between the peoples of their two countries.

All the peoples of the earth have worked on the Exposition, said the special Hachette guide: “they have accumulated their marvels and their treasures for us to reveal unknown arts, overlooked discoveries and to compete with us in a peaceful way where Progress will not slacken in her conquests.” The themes of progress and the future ran throughout the Exposition, from the new moving pavements to the cinema in the round. At one of the pavilions, the Château d’Eau, with its cascading waterfalls, shooting fountains, and colored lights playing on the waters, the centerpiece in a giant basin was an allegorical group which represented Humanity led by Progress advancing towards the Future and overthrowing the rather odd couple of Routine and Hatred.

The Exposition was a showcase for individual countries but it was also a monument to the most recent extraordinary achievements of Western civilization, in industry, commerce, science, technology, and the arts. You could see the new X-ray machines or be overwhelmed, as Henry James was, by the Hall of Dynamos, but the most exciting discovery of all was electricity. The Italian Futurist artist Giacomo Balla later called his daughters Luce and Elettricità in memory of what he saw at the Paris Exposition. (A third daughter was Elica—Propellor—after the modern machinery he also admired.) Camille Saint-Saëns wrote a special cantata in praise of electricity for the Exposition: Le Feu céleste with orchestra, soloists and choir was performed at a free concert. The Palace of Electricity was ablaze with 5,000 light bulbs and high on the summit of its roof stood the Fairy of Electricity in her chariot drawn by a horse and dragon. And there were dozens more palaces and pavilions devoted to the important activities of modern society, among them machinery, mining and metallurgy, chemical industries, public transportation, hygiene, and agriculture.

There was still more, much more. The second modern Olympic Games took place nearby in the Bois de Boulogne as part of the Exposition. Sports included fencing (where the French did very well), tennis (a British triumph), athletics (American dominated), cycling and croquet. At the Exposition Annexe in Vincennes you could examine the new motorcars and watch balloon races. Raoul Grimoin-Sanson, one of the earliest film directors, went up in his own balloon to film the Exposition from above. As the Hachette guide said, the Exposition was “the magnificent result, the extraordinary culmination of the whole century—the most fertile in discoveries, the most prodigious in sciences, which has revolutionized the economic order of the Universe.”

In light of what was to come in the twentieth century such boasting and such complacency seem pitiful to us, but in 1900 Europeans had good reason to feel pleased with the recent past and confident about the future. The thirty years since 1870 had brought an explosion in production and wealth and a transformation in society and the way people lived. Thanks to better and cheaper food, improvements in hygiene, and dramatic advances in medicine, Europeans were living longer and healthier lives. Although Europe’s population went up by perhaps as much as 100 million to a total of 400 million, it was able to absorb the growth thanks to increased output in its own industry and agriculture and imports from around the world. (And emigration acted as a safety valve to avoid an even more dramatic increase—some 25 million Europeans left in the last two decades of the century for new opportunities in the United States alone and millions more went to Australia or Canada or Argentina.)

Europe’s cities and towns grew as people moved from the countryside in increasing numbers in search of better opportunities in factories, shops and offices. On the eve of the French Revolution in 1789, Paris had some 600,000 inhabitants; by the time of the Exposition, 4 million. Budapest, the capital of Hungary, showed the most dramatic increase: in 1867 it had 280,000 inhabitants and by the time of the Great War, 933,000. As the numbers of Europeans making a living from agriculture went down, the industrial working classes and the middle classes grew. Workers organized themselves into unions, which were legal in most countries by the end of the century; in France the number of workers in unions went up fivefold in the fifteen years before 1900 and was to reach 1 million just before the Great War. In recognition of the increasing importance of the class, the Exposition had exhibits of model houses for workers and organizations for their moral and intellectual development.

Margaret MacMillan received her PhD from Oxford University and is now a professor of international history at Oxford, where she is also the warden of St. Antony’s College. She is a fellow of the Royal Society of Literature; a senior fellow of Massey College, University of Toronto; and an honorary fellow of Trinity College, University of Toronto, and of St Hilda’s College, Oxford University. She sits on the boards of the Mosaic Institute and the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism, and on the editorial boards of The International History Review and First World War Studies. She also sits on the advisory board of the Institute for Historical Justice and Reconciliation and is a Trustee of the Rhodes Trust. Her previous books include Dangerous Games: The Uses and Abuses of History, Nixon and Mao: The Week That Changed the World, Women of the Raj: The Mothers, Wives, and Daughters of the British Empire in India, and Paris 1919: Six Months That Changed the World, which won the Samuel Johnson Prize, the PEN Hessell-Tiltman Prize, and the Duff Cooper Prize and was a New York Times Editors’ Choice.

A review: 

"Cry 'Havoc' and let slip the dogs of war..."
17 de outubro de 2013 - Publicada na Amazon.com
As a Brit, studying the First World War at school in the seventies, memories of the Second World War were still fresh and bitter enough amongst parents and teachers that there was never really a question that the Germans were the 'bad guys' in both wars while we (the Brits, primarily, though a little bit of credit was occasionally given to the Allies) were the knights in shining armour. Enough time has passed since both wars now for a more rational view to be taken and this book by Margaret MacMillan is a well balanced, thoughtful and detailed account of the decades leading up to 1914.

MacMillan begins by giving an overview of the involved nations as they were at the turn of the century - their political structure, alliances and enmities, their culture and economic status. She then takes us in considerable depth through the twenty years or so preceding the war, concentrating on each nation in turn, and going further back into history when required. She introduces us to the main players: political, military and leading thinkers. She explains how and why the two main alliances developed that divided Europe and shows the fears of each nation feeling threatened or surrounded by potential enemies. And she shows how this led to an arms race, which each nation initially thought would act as a deterrence to war. Throughout she draws parallels to more recent history and current events, sometimes with frightening clarity.

In the mid-section, MacMillan discusses public opinion and cultural shifts, highlighting the parallel and divisive growth of militarism and pacifism and how the heads of government had to try to reconcile these factions. She indicates that, although the peace movement was international, that at times of threat, the membership tended to split on national lines - an indication that the movement would falter in the event of war, as indeed it did.

Next MacMillan explains the development of military planning and how these plans gradually became fixed, allowing little room for movement when war began. She explains that the Schlieffen Plan assumed war on two fronts and that, when it came to it, the military insisted that it wasn't possible to change the plan at the last moment to limit the war to the Eastern front, with all the implications that had for ensuring that France and therefore Britain would become involved. MacMillan also shows how the plans of each nation assumed an offensive, rather than defensive, strategy, taking little account of how modern weaponry would change the nature of warfare. Thus, when the war did come, the leaders still expected it to be short and decisive rather than the long drawn out trench warfare it became.

In the final section, MacMillan walks us through the various crises in the Balkans and elsewhere in the years leading up to the war. She makes the point that not only did these crises tend to firm up the two alliances but also the fact that each was finally resolved without a full-scale war led to a level of complacency that ultimately no country would take the final plunge. And in the penultimate chapter, she takes us on a detailed journey from the assassination of Franz Ferdinand up to the outbreak of war, showing how each government gradually concluded it was left with no alternatives but to fight. In a short final chapter, she rather movingly summarises the massive losses endured by each nation over the next four years, and gives a brief picture of the changed Europe that emerged.

Overall, I found this a very readable account. MacMillan has a clear and accessible writing style, and juggles the huge cast of characters well. I found I was rarely flicking backwards and forwards to remind myself of previous chapters - for me, always the sign of a well-written factual book. As with any history, there were parts that I found more or less interesting. I found the character studies of the various leaders very enlightening, while I was less interested in the various military plans (though accepting completely MacMillan's argument of their importance to the eventual inevitability of war). I got bogged down in the Balkans (always a problem for me in European history) but in the end MacMillan achieved the well-nigh impossible task of enabling me to grasp who was on whose side and why. This is a thorough, detailed and by no means short account of the period, but at no point did I feel that it dragged or lost focus.

One of the problems with the way I was taught about WW1 was that we tended to talk about the nations rather than the people - 'Germany did this', 'France said that', 'America's position was'. MacMillan's approach gives much more insight, allowing us to get to know the political and military leaders as people and showing the lack of unanimity in most of the governments. This humanised the history for me and gradually changed my opinion from believing that WW1 was a war that should never have been fought to feeling that, factoring in the always-uncertain vagaries of human nature, it could never have been avoided. This isn't MacMillan's position - she states clearly her belief that there are always choices and that the leaders could have chosen differently, and of course that's true. However, it seemed that by 1914 most of them felt so threatened and boxed in that it would have taken extraordinary courage and perception for them to act differently than they did, and inaction may have meant their country's downfall anyway. A sobering account of how prestige, honour and national interest led to a devastating war that no-one wanted but that no-one could prevent. Highly recommended.

NB This book was provided for review by the publisher, Random House.
Another review: 
J. Lindner
5,0 de 5 estrelasThe War that Ended Peace
6 de março de 2014 - Publicada na Amazon.com
Compra verificada
As we approach the centennial anniversary of the outbreak of World War One we should pause to reflect on the terrible loss that conflict brought. In terms of western culture, 1914 was truly a watershed year that ended one way of life and introduced another. Margaret MacMillan followed up her epic study of the Versailles Treaty with this equally impressive work. She attempts to show how the war came about primarily because too many people either wanted war or did not do enough to prevent it from happening. The result is perhaps the most thorough analysis of the pre-1914 world available to the modern reader.

MacMillan begins her book with an account of the major players (France, Germany, Russia, Britain, and Austria-Hungary) to illustrate their national hopes and dreams pitted against their fears and suspicions andn introduces the reader to the primary individuals who helped shape national policy. She then looks at the psychology of war and the peace efforts and compares them to the militarism that each nation experienced. She describes how the new concept of public opinion helped drive the leaders towards certain decisions. Next she looks at the series of run ups to the Great War's outbreak, Morocco, Bosnia, the Balkan Wars, and even the assassination of the Austrian archduke and his wife. None of these events meant that war was ultimiately inevitable. So long as there were at least some key players willing to negotiate and work through differences, war could be avoided.

MacMillan concludes that war came about because the forces that sought it outnumbered and outmanourvered those who did not. But she also works to debunk myths that have evolved over the years. Germany and the Kaiser were not solely responsible for war in 1914. Germany had repeated backed down in the face of international pressure during the Morocco crises of 1905 and 1911. The Kaiser, while having the personality that modern day people would call a "jerk" (or worse), had a way of standing down at the last minute. Granted, he was fascinated with all things military, he was the inheritor of the Prussian military tradition, but he did not set out to bring war upon the world as he has often been blamed for doing. She also critiques the Anglo-French entente that developed after 1904. Britain and France were not a unified front as British leaders continually looked for ways to be non-committal in backing France on international affairs. She also looks at the relationship between France and Russia, and considers the challenges facing Austria-Hungary and the upstart Serbia. All of these have had myths develop around them and MacMillan works through the hyperbole to understand the root causes of national decisions. In fact, MacMillan ultimately blames no one and everyone for the war. The Great War, and she uses this term throughout the book, was the sum total of government's unwillingness to resort to diplomacy when the world needed eiplomacy the most.

MacMillan is not only a fine historian but is also an excellent writer. Thoughout the book she interjects modern analogies to compare with her subject matter to help illustrate her points. One key such analogy appears near the end of the book when she states how John F. Kennedy employed diplomacy against the advice of his advisors in part because he had recently read Barbara Tuchman's The Guns of August. Kennedy gave diplomacy a chance, the players of 1914 did not.

MacMillan's writing style is crisp and lively. Truly, there is never a dull moment in this book. College history courses should utilize this book. The leaders of today should read this book. The average citizen who thinks that guns and war solve problems should read this book. There are lessons to be learned from MacMillan that need to be understood and appreciated. This book has all the makings of a Pulitzer Prize and as such cannot be discounted by anyone who is in the position of decision-making in international affairs. And on a large scale, that really means all of us, as public opinion is now counted for much by politicians and pollsters. This book should remain the standard for a long time to come, much like her work in Paris 1919 remains the standard for understanding our modern world as it resulted from the Paris peace conference.

sexta-feira, 9 de dezembro de 2016

Nem paz nem guerra: as consequencias da Grande Guerra - Robert Gerwarth's "The Vanquished" (book review)

NONFICTION
Neither War Nor Peace: A New Look at the Aftermath of World War I
By MARGARET MacMILLAN
Robert Gerwarth's "The Vanquished" is about the continuing conflict in the years following the end of World War I.

BOOK REVIEW 

Neither War Nor Peace: A New Look at the Aftermath of World War I



THE VANQUISHED
Why the First World War Failed to End
By Robert Gerwarth
Illustrated. 446 pp. Farrar, Straus & Giroux. $28.


Ethnic German refugees from West Prussia on their way to Germany following the 1920 plebiscite.CreditScherl/Suddeutsche Zeitung


“This war is not the end but the beginning of violence,” the German war hero Ernst Junger wrote in 1928. And many of his contemporaries, including Junger himself, did not shrink from that. A significant minority of Europeans welcomed violence as ennobling, and as a way to degrade their enemies while creating new types of societies. Robert Gerwarth, a professor of modern history at University College Dublin, looks at the turbulent five-or-so years especially in the center of Europe, between 1918, when World War I ended, and 1923, when peace seemed to come to the Middle East. His account is both important and timely, and obliges us to reconsider a period and a battle front that has too often been neglected by historians.
The standard view of the 1920s has been that they were merely the brief pause before the 1930s and the inevitable slide into a second world war. The peace settlements made in Paris in 1919, in this telling, were so vindictive and so flawed that they drove Germans toward the Nazis and left even victorious nations like Italy and Japan deeply dissatisfied. Historians have recently been suggesting a more nuanced version, with economic production reaching prewar levels and a sort of normality returning. That hopeful moment came to an abrupt end with the Great Depression, which destroyed the faith of millions in capitalism and democracy and made the alternatives of Communism and fascism seem attractive. And, as Gerwarth’s well-researched and engrossing book makes clear, there was already plenty of flammable material lying about.
The pressures of the war led to the disintegration of empires — the Russian, Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman — that had endured for centuries, setting off a scramble for territory and control. Even stable societies buckled. Gerwarth counts 27 violent conflicts in Europe, from civil wars to coups, between 1917, the year of the Russian Revolution, and 1920 alone. The breakdown of society and the ensuing conflicts may have been worse in the center of Europe and the Middle East, but even relatively stable Britain experienced the bitter Irish war of independence and then civil war.
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Three types of conflict overlapped. States like Poland, Czechoslovakia, Greece and Turkey fought over land and resources; peoples turned on each other in civil wars as in Finland or Russia; and national groups or social classes struggled for dominance.
Increasingly the distinction so painfully established in the 18th and 19th centuries between combatants and noncombatants was breaking down. War was becoming total, seen as an existential struggle of one people or civilization against another. Attacks on civilians became acceptable.
In Russia, Lenin urged his Bolsheviks to hang rich peasants as an example to others. To force the villages to give up their food, his government bombed them and used poison gas. German paramilitaries — the Freikorps — rampaged through the Baltic States under the pretext of fighting Bolshevism. The Freikorps were motivated by a passionate German nationalism as well as the excitement of conflict. They found enemies everywhere and killed and raped with abandon. “We chased the Latvians like rabbits over the fields,” a volunteer proudly recalled. “We slaughtered whoever fell into our hands.”
Nationalists demanded nation-states with as much territory as possible. Yet the mix of ethnicities meant it was impossible to draw borders that brought all the Poles into one state, for example, or all Europe’s Germans into another. Even the small states that succeeded the empires were themselves, as Gerwarth points out, mini-empires, with a majority of one people ruling over substantial minorities.
Abstract nouns — the “revolution” or the “nation” — too often became justifications for treating whole categories of human beings as though they didn’t matter. Put them into the dustbin of history, said the Bolsheviks. On the right, prewar ideas like social Darwinism and the racialist theories it spawned remained influential. (The young Adolf Hitler had eagerly absorbed them in prewar Vienna.) Struggle, so Darwin could be twisted to say, was a natural part of human existence.
From the Baltic to the Black Sea a dreadful cycle of reprisal and counterreprisal left millions of dead. How many we will never know for sure, but some three million people probably died in the Russian Civil War alone. Anti-Semitic pogroms had long been known in Russia, but now they spread into the former Austria-Hungary as Jews were blamed, inconsistently, for being capitalists and Bolsheviks, or, in an ancient charge, for killing Christ. In Western Russia and Ukraine alone, 100,000 Jews were murdered in the second half of 1918.
What we now call ethnic cleansing became acceptable. The Turkish government had already connived at the Armenian genocide during the war. In the early 1920s, as Greece tried to seize a huge piece of Anatolia, it became the turn of the Turks to suffer attacks for who they were. The Greek prime minister Eleftherios Venizelos, in the grip of his dream of reconstituting the Greek empire of the classical world, sent his troops to land in Asia Minor. The atrocities started almost at once. The Turks responded in kind. Under Mustafa Kemal (Ataturk) they rallied their forces and drove the Greeks back to the sea. In the Treaty of Lausanne the new republic of Turkey and the Allies agreed to a population exchange. Some 1.2 million nominal Greeks (distinguished by religion and not by language or culture) left Turkey while 400,000 equally nominal Turks went the other way, accompanied by scenes of people drowning and starving that are reminiscent of Europe’s southern edges today.
Historians have tended to blame these and other such horrors on the brutalizing effects of World War I, but Gerwarth argues convincingly that it is not as easy as that. Finland, which had been neutral, had one of the bloodiest civil wars of all. The dispiriting conclusion to draw from “The Vanquished” is how easily what we think of as the restraints of civilization can break down.
Even when peace of a sort was re-established, the fires of extreme nationalism died down but did not go away, and the language of political leaders in certain countries continued to resonate with talk of enemies and metaphors of war. Mussolini called Bolshevism a “gangrene” or “cancer” that had to be excised. Fears of disorder, civil war and Bolshevism remained and fueled the rise of fascism. Constitutional and democratic governments, especially in Germany and the newly emerged states in the center of Europe, never quite managed to shake off the charge that they were weak and, perhaps worse, boring.
Defeat proved to have what Gerwarth calls a dangerous “mobilizing power.” Right-wing nationalist leaders promised to undo this shame and recover “lost” territories and peoples. Hitler vowed to break the “chains” of the Treaty of Versailles. No matter that Germany was not that badly treated — and certainly not as badly as German leaders had treated Russia in the 1918 Treaty of Brest-Litovsk. The myth of the “stab in the back” — that traitors at home, whether left-wingers, liberals or Jews had prevented German forces from fighting on to victory — helped undermine the German republic and fostered dreams of vengeance. On the winning side, both Japan and Italy believed that they had not gained enough. Japanese increasingly felt humiliated. Mussolini excoriated the “mutilated victory” that had not given Italy everything it wanted.
It is too easy to blame the peace settlements, however. What happened to Europe had deeper causes. Without that war, existing structures would not have crumbled as they did. Indeed, the empires might have survived. (In retrospect that might not have been such a bad thing, especially if they had continued to reform themselves as they were already doing before 1914.) Since the disintegration of the Soviet Union, we have learned again that winding down empires is not easy.
There are other tantalizing questions as well. What if the United States as the new power on the international scene had joined the League of Nations and used its great economic and political influence to rebuild Europe, as it did after World War II? “The Vanquished” is an excellent guide to help us think again about such issues.
Margaret MacMillan is warden of St. Antony’s College and a professor of international history at Oxford University.
A version of this review appears in print on December 11, 2016, on page BR16 of the Sunday Book Review with the headline: Neither War Nor Peace. Today's Paper|Subscribe

segunda-feira, 6 de janeiro de 2014

1914 e os ritmos da História - Margaret MacMillan

Convido os interessados em história a acessar o site da Brookings Institution, para uma conferência, ilustrada por dezenas de fotos, da historiadora Margaret MacMillan, já autora de um livro sobre a Conferência de Paz, Paris 1919, e agora novamente autora de um livro sobre 1914, neste link:

http://www.brookings.edu/research/essays/2013/rhyme-of-history?utm_campaign=brookings-alert&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=11561442&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-__sNDpG1AVpoo-SQqTlEz2_Wv6mxDXH2Xqs97EocKddnP4bJn5ZCEIJ5sfXfjL99Ir6nemL-dKl_HwRwrs-kZVJoYOIg&_hsmi=11561442

Boa leitura a todos...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

domingo, 22 de dezembro de 2013

Primeira Guerra Mundial: um outro livro de Margaret MacMillan


Turning Points: Margaret MacMillan Talks About ‘The War That Ended Peace


Publishers this year got the jump on commemorating the centenary of World War I, offering many books about the period by leading historians. “The War That Ended Peace” by Margaret MacMillan examines the relations among European countries in the relatively calmer years leading up to 1914. In The New York Times Book Review, Richard Aldous wrote that Ms. MacMillan “neatly recounts the events that led to battle” and that her “portraits of the men who took Europe to war are superb.”
In a recent e-mail interview, Ms. MacMillan discussed the turning points that led to war, Germany’s role in the outbreak of armed conflict and more. Below are edited excerpts from the conversation:
Q.
Several times you emphasize the “growing importance of public opinion” in the politics of the early 20th century. What role did it play, and why was public opinion a different force than it had been previously?
A.
Public opinion pushed leaders in certain directions and limited their options. Until the 19th century, statesmen and politicians could make decisions without worrying about what others, apart from their own very small circles, thought. The spread of literacy and mass communications — the most popular newspaper in Moscow was selling more than 800,000 copies a day before 1914 — meant that a much larger public was well-informed and engaged.
Public opinion also became a factor because it was more organized and articulate. In addition to the spread of constitutional government, the extension of the franchise meant that governments, even in autocracies like Russia, had to worry about keeping support and winning the next elections.
Q.
Most refutations of the “great man theory” of history downplay individuals to focus on social forces. And while you certainly do that, there’s also a pattern in the book of leaders who make bad decisions. How much would you attribute the start of the war to poor leadership as opposed to larger trends?
A.
I would say it is both. You can’t understand the leaders without understanding their world and its ideas, values and prejudices. For example, Social Darwinist ideas, derived — wrongly, as we now know — from evolutionary biology, encouraged Europeans to assume that nations were separate species, just as in the natural world, engaged in an unending struggle for survival. If you think that, then you might well conclude, and many did, that war was both inevitable and salutary.
On the other hand, those leaders who had to make the great choices were human beings with their own characteristics and emotions. The German Chancellor had just lost his beloved wife in the summer of 1914. Did this make him more pessimistic and less likely to resist the calls for war? So I would say individuals are very important at particular moments.
Q.
You write in the introduction that your book “traces Europe’s path to 1914 and picks out those turning points when its options narrowed.” There were many of those turning points, but does one stand out to you as the most fateful?
A.
If I have to choose one decision in those fateful days after the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Sarajevo, I think the most dangerous was Austria-Hungary’s determining it would destroy Serbia once and for all, even at the risk of bringing Russia in to defend Serbia. In Vienna they blamed the Serbian government for the assassination of their heir to the throne. Beyond that, though, the Austrian elites saw the existence of the Serbian state as a magnet for Austria-Hungary’s own Serbs and the Croats and Slovenes as well, and therefore a threat to the very survival of what was an increasingly rickety empire.
Austria-Hungary might still have paused if Germany, as it had done before, had urged caution. This time, however, the German government decided it would support its ally, come what may. So if I am allowed a second turning point, it is the so-called blank check Germany issued to Austria-Hungary on July 5. A month later Europe was at war.
Q.
Are there any historical figures that surprised you in their influence and who ended up playing a larger role in the book than you thought they would?
A.
Franz Ferdinand’s death was the trigger for the war, but I had never thought about him as a human being and what it meant that he had disappeared from the scene. He was not a particularly nice man — reactionary and anti-Semitic — but he was sensible when it came to foreign affairs. In previous crises in the Balkans he had resisted the cries for war from the generals and warned that an attempt to destroy Serbia might well lead to a wider war, which would destroy Austria-Hungary. In July 1914, the lonely old emperor had no one close to him to help him stand up to the hawks.
Q.
How would you summarize the current conventional wisdom about Germany’s role in starting the war? And how does what you write in this book differ from the conventional wisdom?
Rob JudgesMargaret MacMillan
A.
There is no current conventional wisdom on Germany, which is why the debate remains so interesting and lively. Opinion has swung back and forth over the past century. At the end of the war, Allied opinion was that the war had been Germany’s fault, but doubts almost immediately began to creep in. The Germans themselves, most of whom felt the war was not their fault, selectively released documents and encouraged research which seemed to show that everyone was to blame, even that the war may have been an accident. In the late 1920s and 1930s that view came to be widely accepted as well in the English-speaking countries such as Britain and the United States.
Margaret MacMillan
After the Second World War, however, a younger generation of German historians led by Fritz Fischer went back into the archives and emerged with the conviction that the German leadership, including the military, had actively worked for a war of conquest. The pendulum has since swung back a bit with newer historians arguing that, while German policies were often reckless, those of the other powers had to be taken into account as well.
Today we are no closer to a consensus. Some recent studies have singled out Russia and France for forming a military alliance which threatened Germany, while others put blame on Britain for not making its position clearer when the crisis started. The arguments will go on and I don’t think they are going to end any time soon.
What I can say about my own contribution to the debate is that I ask a different sort of question: Why did the peace fail? Europe had enjoyed an unprecedented period of general peace between 1815 and 1914, and there were strong forces in favor of maintaining that. There was a big international peace movement and governments were getting increasingly used to the idea of settling disputes in peaceful ways. Of the more than 300 international arbitrations during the century, more than half occurred after 1890. I don’t think war was inevitable, even though we can look back and see many reasons why it eventually happened.
Q.
In “Paris 1919,” you wrote about the aftermath of the war, and here you’ve written about the lead-up to it. Do you have plans or a desire to write about the years of the war itself?
A.
I sometimes think about it, but my recent book is very long and took up a good deal of my life for the past few years. So at the moment my ambition is to write something very short.