Welcome to the Chinese World Order: interests, not values - BergGruen Institute (WP)

Weekend Roundup: China is laying the groundwork for a post-American world order A China-led world order would be based on interests, not values. Nathan Gardels, Editor in Chief Visit the WorldPost at http://www.theworldpost.com

A map of the new Silk Road, connecting Asia to Europe. (Maxiphoto/Getty)

As the United States abandons the postwar multilateral system it once led, China is stepping into the breach, laying the groundwork for a post-American world order. We are already getting a glimpse of what is to come through China’s various initiatives, ranging from the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) to the Belt and Road project and the 16+1 group, which is developing Chinese-financed projects in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. China is also seeking to connect a global electricity grid powered by wind and solar as a means to sustain development while fighting climate change. This new order will not be like the old. At least for now, it is not multilateral but comprised of multiple bilateral relationships linked to the Chinese core. And given China’s “one world, many systems” perspective, it is based not on a convergence of values, but of interests. President Xi Jinping has cast these initiatives with a positive spin as building “a community of shared future for mankind.” The most cynical critics regard them as a thin fig leaf disguising China’s quest for global dominance and merely a means to find markets for overproduction as its domestic economy slows. Xi’s vision is also clouded by manifold reports of debt overload and kickbacks for corrupt leaders. In Sri Lanka, China has taken over a port it built because Sri Lanka couldn’t afford the debt. The same dynamic seems to be developing in Pakistan and Laos; the new Malaysian government, meanwhile, has put its Chinese-financed rail project on hold, citing corruption and disadvantageous terms negotiated by the previous regime. There is no mileage in being naive about China’s ambitions and its self-interested motives. But lining up with hostility against China’s initiatives the way Joseph Stalin and his minions did toward the Marshall Plan after World War II — which did wonders for a devastated Europe while also benefiting the United States through purchases of imports from American companies that were required to cross the Atlantic on American merchant ships — is a mistaken course for the West. And let’s not forget that the American expansion of railroads westward in the 19th century also led to a crisis of corruption and over-indebtedness. Despite the turmoil and losses, when it was all sorted out, the result in the end was a connected continent that became a foundation of American prosperity. Twenty years from now, the same will likely be true of Eurasia and Africa as a result of China’s initiatives, even with all of their faults. That is why, to diminish the downsides, the proper stance would be for the West to join with China’s efforts at global development so that the process is more transparent and less corrupt, with terms that don’t foster debt traps and amount to creditor imperialism. The experience of the “clean, lean and green” AIIB, which many Western nations — though not the United States — have joined, shows that high standards can be imposed if the West is a participant instead of an outsider as the new order is being built. After all, it is not as if Western nations on their own are going to finance and construct infrastructure around the world. No one needs reminding that the United States has been unable to build a single high-speed rail project anywhere on its vast territory. By and large, it can’t even manage to finance the repair of old infrastructure, much less invest in anything new. The European Union remains mired in deep disagreements about how to manage its own internal finances. While critics carp from the sidelines, those in need of help are grateful. “When we were faced with financial crisis, amidst the wider challenges of the E.U., China helped us,” Greece’s former prime minister George Papandreou recalled in a recent conversation with me. “China was one of the few nations to buy our sovereign bonds. This was an important vote of confidence. Then China began its investment in the Port of Piraeus, an early investment that is now one of the major components of the new maritime Silk Road. These investments showed great trust in my country’s capacity to overcome the crisis, where few others would.” In The WorldPost this week, we address these issues of a growing vacuum in the world order and China’s attempt to fill it, for good and for ill. Ali Wyne sees the demise of the American-led postwar order as less a consequence of President Trump’s wrecking ball and more a victim of its own success. That order, built to avoid another devastating world war among major powers, achieved its goal. Along with an open trading regime, it was this stable absence of global conflict that enabled China’s peaceful rise. The result of success, Wyne contends, has been a complacency that has eroded the founding urgency that sustained a broad and deep commitment of states and their publics. That makes revitalizing the order a challenge. “The modernization of the world order would ideally result from farsighted diplomacy,” writes Wyne. “It is more likely, though, that policymakers will do little more than push for incremental improvements to an inadequate system” thereby allowing “forces — ranging from external challenges to populist uprisings — to continue testing its foundations. The potential result of indefinite erosion — a vacuum in order, without a coherent alternative to replace it — is unpalatable.” Noting that the creation of new orders has historically followed upon cataclysmic events like the world wars, Wyne concludes: “In a nuclear age, though, it is terrifying to consider what might have to occur for a new order to emerge.” To the extent that China is fostering an alternative to the vacuum, Jonathan Hillman doesn’t like what he sees. “The Belt and Road is a masterstroke in geopolitical advertising. Wrapping the effort in Silk Road mythology, Xi is effectively selling a Sino-centric order to the world,” he writes from Budapest. “In practice, the Belt and Road is a sea of bilateral deals between China and participating countries, including many markets where few others dare to go. More than half of the countries participating in the Belt and Road have sovereign debt ratings that are either junk or not graded. China’s emphasis on building big-ticket infrastructure projects resonates with foreign leaders looking to impress at home and establish a legacy.” For Hillman, this mix of a debt trap with the megalomania of corrupt local autocrats will not spell stability and progress but a costly waste of resources as nations become tributaries beholden to Chinese largesse. As China extends its influence globally, it will inexorably be drawn into local conflicts, just as the United States was in its period of dominance. “For decades, Beijing refrained from meddling with sovereign nations’ internal affairs,” Denise Hruby writes from Juba, South Sudan, where the China National Petroleum Company owns a 40 percent share of the country’s largest oil fields. “As long as economic ties flourished, it would turn a blind eye toward human rights abuses and corruption. But with increasing investments abroad comes more clout, and as the United States scales back its international commitments, China is emerging as an obvious development partner.” Hruby reports that while China initially sought a direct role in ending the South Sudan conflict, which threatens its investments, it was soon overwhelmed by the complexity of militia and tribal politics. China fields its largest contingent of U.N. peacekeeping forces there, but it has reverted to a stance that “African problems must have African solutions” and looks to the African Union and other local mediators to resolve the crisis while it stands on the sidelines. Jeffrey Sachs sees Trump’s effort to staunch China’s newfound influence while abandoning America’s own successful model of development as achieving the opposite of its intent. “American prosperity since World War II has been built upon science and technology breakthroughs spurred by a powerful innovation system linking the federal government, business, academia and venture capital,” he writes. “U.S. innovation policy has been successfully emulated in Europe and Asia, most recently by China. President Trump’s trade war against China aims to slow China’s technology ascent but is misguided and doomed to fail; instead, American prosperity should be assured by doing what America does best: innovating at home and trading with the rest of the world.”

Nathan Gardels, Editor in Chief Kathleen Miles, Executive Editor  Dawn Nakagawa, Vice President of Operations Peter Mellgard, Features Editor  Alex Gardels, Video Editor  Clarissa Pharr, Associate Editor  Rosa O’Hara, Social Editor  The WorldPost, a partnership of the Berggruen Institute and The Washington Post, is an award-winning global media platform that aims to be a place where the world meets. We seek to make sense of an interdependent yet fragmenting world by commissioning voices that cross cultural and political boundaries. Publishing op-eds and features from around the globe, we work from a worldwide perspective looking around rather than a national perspective looking out.

Debating a Post-American World: a book on international relations

Um livro de que participei, e sobre o qual já informei aqui, 


Clark, Sean and Sabrina Hoque (eds.):
Debating a Post-American World: What Lies Ahead?
(London: Routledge, 2011, 288 p.; ISBN-10: 0415690552; ISBN-13: 978-0415690553, p. 135-141; available: http://www.routledge.com/books/details/9780415690553/); capítulo Paulo Roberto de Almeida: “Attraction and Repulsion: Brazil and the American world”
(ver: http://www.pralmeida.org/01Livros/2FramesBooks/PostAmericanWorld.html)


foi objeto de uma entrevista num blog canadense dedicado aos estudos internacionais, como me informa um dos organizadores, em comunicação pessoal, que reproduzo abaixo:

From: Sabrina Hoque <shoque@xxxxx.xx>

Subject: Promoting 'What Lies Ahead'

Date: 21 de janeiro de 2012 07:40:39 GMT+00:00

To: Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Cc: sean.clark@xxxxx.xx

Good morning Dr. Almeida,

Published in the UK on December 7, I'm happy to tell you that our book, 'What Lies Ahead', is now also available in North America. Sean and I hope you successfully received your complimentary contributor's copy, as those were mailed out from the UK in mid-December (though it may have been delayed by the holiday mail crush). If you haven't received a copy of a book by January 27, please do let us know and we will follow up with the publishers.

In addition to the steps Routledge is taking, Sean and I have also been busy promoting and marketing our book. Here are a few updates:

- Copies of our book have been sent out to several journals who are interested in writing a review: International Journal, Canadian Foreign Policy Journal, International Affairs, Canadian Journal of Political Science, and The Diplomat (online journal).

- There will be a book launch at Dalhousie's 7th Annual Political Science Graduate Student Symposium (March 2012), with our books available for purchase. The symposium is regularly attended by graduate students from across North America, faculty, members of the Canadian International Council, and the broader public community. The theme of this year's symposium is: "Rise of the Rest: Opportunities and Implications".

- Sean and I were recently interviewed by Verkko.ca (a Canadian online network for International Affairs)

The interview is available at: http://www.verkko.ca/members/blog_view.asp?id=640691&post=136880

At this stage, we welcome any further suggestions or recommendations you may have on how we may do more to market the book.

Lastly, Sean and I will both be attending ISA in San Diego this year (April 2012). Please let us know if you will be attending as well, as it would be great to meet up and perhaps enjoy a celebratory drink together!

Should you have any questions or concerns, please do not hesitate to contact me at shoque@dal.ca. I look forward to continued correspondence with you, and hope to see you at ISA.

Sincerely,

Sabrina Hoque

PhD Candidate of International Relations

Doctoral Fellow, Centre for Foreign Policy Studies

Dalhousie University

Debating a Post-American World: What Lies Ahead (Routledge, 2011)

Just Published: http://www.routledge.com/9780415690553

http://www.verkko.ca/members/blog_view.asp?id=640691&post=136880

50 Scholars Debate Post-American World in Newly Released Book

Posted By verkko.ca, January-10-12

Two PhD candidates in International Relations at the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies at Dalhousie University, Sean Clark and Sabrina Hoque have edited a newly released book called Debating a Post-American World What Lies Ahead? Verkko recently sat down with the two to talk about this project.

1) Tell us about your publication and how this project came about?

Fareed Zakaria's argument regarding the Post-American World garnered a lot of scholarly attention, engaging with the debate on the US' role in world politics, and whether its position was indeed shifting with respect to rising powers. As editors, we aimed to bridge the gap between theory and current world events by bringing together academic and policy experts who offer their perspectives on the debate.

This assumption provides another key reason why the "post-American world” was chosen as the central topic for discussion. One of the chief purposes of this book has been to provide students with an extensive overview of the current debate surrounding the prospects for a "Post-American world". It has been our experience that students are eager to consider and discuss the potential for a truly massive shift in the international distribution of power. As graduate students ourselves, we know how important it is to be able to analyze global events with a theoretical lens. The topic therefore offers a unique opportunity to combine theory and practice in one setting. Indeed, this book illustrates how knowledge is best advanced when the two are considered in tandem. Above all, we hope we to communicate the fact that today’s students will graduate into a world fraught with much tragedy and peril – but also tremendous promise.

2) Why do you feel this publication is particularly relevant today?

For all the tension and dangers of the Cold War era, the international system remained relatively stable. The postwar decades had a degree of predictability to them: the Soviet’s had their sphere and we in the West had ours. Each attended to their own backyard in relative peace, and certainly faced no challenger outside this nuclear dyad. This left Europe and Japan to rapidly rebuild from the ashes of World War II, joining North America in an unrivaled period of prosperity. Even living standards in the Soviet empire, propelled by harsh, Stalinist industrialization, grew at a modest but predictable rate. Much of the rest of the world, however, stayed poor. Latin America tipped into autocracy and hyperinflation. Asia languished under repressive dictators like Mao and Kim Il-Sung, with massive famine following megalomania. In sub-Saharan Africa, average life expectancy in the postwar period actually declined. In short, those who were rich and powerful in 1945 generally found themselves in the same enviable position when the millennium came to an end.

In contrast, the world of today is far more dynamic. A modern-day foreign investor in Africa is just as likely to be Chinese, Turkish, or Indian in origin than British or American. Some estimates project that China’s economy, at least when measured in purchasing power parity, will overtake that of the United States before the decade is out. Indian firms like Tata and ArcelorMittal are lean and hungry and unafraid of battling with the traditional, Western behemoths of General Electric and General Motors. Brazil, in a sharp contradiction to neo-Marxist expectations, now imports aircraft components from wealthy Europe and America, exporting back finished products in return. Over the past decade, six of the world’s ten fastest-growing countries were found in Africa. Even if the decline of the West has been over-stated, the political and economic relationship between the global North and South has never been so competitive.

Given this remarkable tumult, we see no better time to examine what implications these changes might bring. Change is coming fast and furiously, and we think both scholars and students will be interested in an analysis of where and how their world is going to be affected.

3) Who are some of the key contributors to your book?

To our good fortune, we were able to solicit think-pieces from over 50 contributors. Given the range of topics addressed in our book, you can imagine that each of our contributors brings their own unique and key perspective to the debate. Indeed, this is one of the appeals of our edited volume - students are able to connect, compare, and contrast individual scholars with theory and current events. We also put together an innovative panel at the recent 2010 Annual convention in Montreal, hosted by the International Studies Association. Our panel, consisting of a selection of our contributors: Joseph Nye, William Wohlforth, Mark Brawley, Tim Shaw, William R. Thompson, Ronald Tammen, Christopher Layne, and Thomas Fues, debated the prospects of a Post-American world and was received with wide enthusiasm, with over a 100 conference participants in attendance.

4) What are some of the key issues addressed in your book?

Our book is divided into five parts, with international relations scholars and policy experts exploring and discussing a wide range of topics. The edited volume is an effort to frame the debate regarding the question of ‘what lies ahead’. First and foremost is to ask if we are destined for, to use Fareed Zakaria’s term, a "post-American world.” In other words, will America retain a leading role in world affairs, or will its slippage mirror the fallen titans of ages past? To achieve the former, some very large hurdles will have to be overcome. In Part I, we conduct a realist-type evaluation of future power trends. These dynamics are examined not only from the perspective of the United States, but also from that of the "risers and the rest.” Part III enters into a more specific discussion regarding the course and conduct of wars to come, including the future of nuclear weapons, arms control, and "liberal wars in the age of risk.” Part IV looks more to the liberal concerns of laws and institutions, and how they might fare in a world absent of American hegemony. Lastly, Part V touches upon issues often overlooked by mainstream scholarship: energy and the environment. The post-American world may, after all, end up being dark and hungry.

5) In your opinion, what are the main challenges to Canada and the rest of the world caused by a transition from American dominance to the rise of alternative powers?

A post-American world is one ripe with opportunity for countries like Canada, but one that is also fraught with dangers we cannot control. As a resource exporter, the rapid industrialization of the Global South provides a tremendous boon to the Canadian economy. The ever-longer queue for Canadian iron, oil, beef, and timber has already meant a fortuitous partial de-coupling of Canada from the United States economy, sparing Canadians the steep recession that America continues to find itself mired in. Wealthy societies make for good customers and, as we have learned with the recent Keystone XL debacle, it never hurts to have alternative clients waiting in the wings.

This rosy take relies, of course, on the assumption that the present, Washington-centric world order can continue to mollify the rising South’s political and economic ambitions. If not, the growth of these new powers may bring sustained international confrontation. We have already seen rumblings by China and others that the present set of multilateral institutions are not up to the task. Public communiqués, for example, assert China’s intentions of a "peaceful rise”—yet this image fits uncomfortably alongside the elaborate military parades of the People’s Republic's Diamond Jubilee of October 1, 2009. Guns, pride, and fear can make for a potent mix. Indeed, there is always the possibility that, like in 1914, a changing international economic balance could really lead things awry. To this prospect, policymakers of countries both large and small must remain constantly vigilant.

Debating a Post-American World - a book by Sabrina Hoque and Sean Clark (with a chapter of mine)

Just received from one of the organizers:

Good evening Dr. Almeida,

Good news! After much anticipation, our book, 'What Lies Ahead', is due to publish in the UK on 7th December, and you should be receiving a copy of the book within 3 weeks after that (Christmas post allowing). The American publication date is not yet finalised but will be around 6 weeks subsequent to the UK date, simply because of the 
time taken to physically transport the bulk of books.

A link to the product page for our book which you can forward to anyone who might be interested in learning more about it is: http://www.routledge.com/9780415690553

I have provided further details below on what steps the publishers are currently taking to effectively market our book. We would greatly appreciate it if you'd also be able to promote the book in any way you deem appropriate.

Sean and I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your contributions, and for being such a big part of this project. It was an immense pleasure to work with you. We could not have pulled this major book project without your support, timely submissions, and steady encouragement. We now look forward to your thoughts and feedback on the end product!

Should you have any questions or concerns, or further suggestions on how we may do more to market the book, please do not hesitate to contact me at shoque@xxxx.xx. I look forward to continued correspondence with you.

Sincerely,
Sabrina Hoque

A library recommendation form is available at the following location, see: 
http://www.routledge.com/resources/librarian_recommendation/9780415690553 for more details. You can fill this out for your own librarian and forward the link to interested parties who would like to see our book appear in their libraries as well.

Our book has already been promoted by Routledge using the following tools:

- It has featured in the relevant subject catalogues, mailed to over 20,000 academics, librarians, and institutions worldwide
- It has been registered on Routledge's extensive standing order system, which means that bookshops, libraries and library suppliers worldwide with a special interest in our subject area automatically receive a copy.
- It has been promoted on Routledge's e-commerce site
- It has been presented to Routledge's global team of sales representatives
- It has been previewed in Routledge's New Titles catalogue, which is produced every three months and used by their agents to sell directly to bookstores and institutions

Our book will be promoted using further tools where appropriate, including:

- E-mail campaigns to relevant selections from both Routledge's  extensive internal customer database and from external databases
- Direct mail pieces sent to academics with an interest in our field
- Review copies that will be offered for review to Routledge's  extensive global list of potential reviewers in our subject area
- Display copies or other publicity materials at the major conferences Routledge attends in our subject area (THIS INCLUDES THE UPCOMING 2012 ISA CONVENTION IN SAN DIEGO)
- Inserts and adverts when space permits in all Routledge's relevant  in-house publications (both books and journals)
- Cross-marketing within relevant promotional material from other relevant subject areas

-- 
Sabrina Hoque
PhD Candidate of International Relations
Doctoral Fellow, Centre for Foreign Policy Studies
Dalhousie University

Debating a Post-American World: What Lies Ahead (Routledge, 2011)

Just Published: http://www.routledge.com/9780415690553

Debating a Post-American World

What Lies Ahead?

Edited by Sean Clark, Sabrina Hoque

To Be Published December 8th 2011 by Routledge – 316 pages

Series: Security and Governance

Description:

The United States is currently the linchpin of global trade, technology, and finance, and a military colossus, extending across the world with a network of bases and alliances. This book anticipates the possible issues raised by a transition between American dominance and the rise of alternative powers.

While a ‘post-American’ world need not be any different than that of today, the risk associated with such a change provides ample reason for attentive study. Divided into four parts, 50 international relations scholars explore and discuss:

• Power Transitions: addressing issues including the rise of China; the passing of American primacy and the endurance of American leadership.
• War and Peace: addressing nuclear weapons; the risk of war; security privatization and global insecurity
• Global Governance: addressing competition, trade, the UN, sovereignty, humanitarian intervention, law and power.
• Energy and the Environment: addressing resource conflict, petrol, climate change and technology.

This unique project offers a compilation of disparate arguments by scholars and policy practitioners, encompassing a plurality of disciplines and theoretical perspectives. By providing clarity and focus to this essential debate on the future of the world in the next several decades,Debating a Post-American World will be of interest to students and scholars of International Relations and global politics, American politics, US Foreign policy and International Security.

Contents:

 Foreword Madame Louise Frechétte 

1. Introduction: Into the 21st Century 

2. The Rise of the Rest Fareed Zakaria 

3. Optimism and Pessimism in an Era of Changing Power Sean M. Lynn-Jones 

4. Global Transitions Jacek Kugler, Ronald L. Tammen and John Thomas 

Part 1: Power Transitions: America in World Politics 

5. The Real Post-American World Christopher Layne

6. Grace, Murder, or Suicide? The Passing of American Primacy Terry Terriff 

7. A Flawed Lens for Viewing U.S. Foreign Policy Steven Holloway 

8. Analyzing Relative Decline in Zakaria’s Post-American World William R. Thompson 

9. Déjà Vu All Over Again? Kim Richard Nossal 

10. Constancy and Change in the Future International System James Fergusson 

11. A Post-American World? Perils, Possibilities, and Preparations Mark R. Brawley 

12. The American World, Mark III William C. Wohlforth 

13. The Misleading Metaphor of Hegemonic Decline Joseph Nye 

14. Postscript: Whither the American Colossus? 

15. Three Questions on China's Rise: What is causing it? Will it continue? What are the consequences? Paul Bowles 

16. Scenarios for China’s Role in a Post-American World Charles Burton 

17. A Hard Act to Follow: Thoughts on World Leadership in America’s Shadow Alexander Moens 

18. What Do Americans and Chinese Think of Themselves and Each Other? David R. Mandel 

19. The ‘Rest’ and the Global South: Varieties of Actors, Issues, and Coalitions Timothy M. Shaw 

20. America and the Emerging Powers in Tomorrow's Middle East Paul Salem 

21. Two Hubs, Many Spokes, No Frame: The Shape of the Post-American Americas Jean Daudelin 

22. Attraction and Repulsion: Brazil and the American World Paulo Roberto de Almeida 

23. Pondering Canadian Defence in a ‘Post-American’ World Philippe Lagassé 

24. Canada in the Post-American World John English

25. Postscript: Balances Disturbed 

Part 2: A Golden Age: The Passing of American Primacy 

26. Paths to War and Peace in a Post-American World Brandon Valeriano and John Vasquez 

27. Our Nuclear (Free?) Future David Mutimer 

28. Nuclear Weapons: Stability of Terror Kyungkook Kang and Jacek Kugler 

29. An Increasingly Fragile World David Carment and Yiagadeesen Samy 

30. New Wars, the Age of Risk, and the Future of International Relations Andrew Latham 

31. Security Privatization in a Post-American World Christopher Spearin 

32. The Global Insecurity Future Wesley Wark 

33. Zakaria’s Past Meets Zakaria’s Future Robert Bothwell 

34. Postscript: Security in the Post-Cold War Era 

Part 3: Global Governance 

35. What Lies Ahead for the OECD? Richard Woodward 

36. Competing Rules of the Game in a Post-American World Richard Stubbs 

37. Global Governance from America, Canada, and the Responsible Rest Aarie Glas and John Kirton 

38. Lies Ahead for the Emerging Countries? Denise Gregory 

39. On Free Trade, and the Post-American World C.L. Lim 

40. The United Nations and Europe in a Post-American World Thomas Fues 

41. 2025: A New World Order? Jeremy Kinsman 

42. Addressing ‘So What?’ Sovereignty and Humanitarian Intervention in a ‘Post-American World.’ Alistair Edgar 

43. Law, Power, and the International System Steven Haines 

44. Postscript: Ordering Anarchy 45. Postscript: Ordering Anarchy. 

Part 4: Energy and the Environment 

46. Still Living in a Material World? The ‘Rise of the Rest’ and the Question of Resource Conflict David G. Haglund 

47. Democracy's Petro State Satya Brata Das 

48. In the Face of an Unknown Future Matthew Paterson and Simon Dalby 49. American Prosperity and the High Politics of Climate Change Radoslav S. Dimitrov 

50. Words From the Forgotten: The Environment in The Post-American World Heather A. Smith 

51. Technology and the Future: Lessons from the Green Revolution Howard D. Leathers 

52. Postscript: Our Fragile Home. 

53. Concluding Reflections Denis Stairs

Organizers:

Sean Clark and Sabrina Hoque are PhD candidates in International Relations and Doctoral Fellows at the Centre for Foreign Policy Studies at Dalhousie University

Subjects:

1. Politics & International Relations
2. International Political Economy
3. International Politics
4. American Politics
5. International Relations
6. Foreign Policy
7. Global Governance
8. Security Studies - Military & Strategic