O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

Mostrando postagens com marcador emerging economies. Mostrar todas as postagens
Mostrando postagens com marcador emerging economies. Mostrar todas as postagens

quinta-feira, 8 de abril de 2021

A decade after the Global Recession: lessons and challenges for Emerging and Developing Econômies - World Bank book (2021)

View PDF 


April 2021. 432 pages.
English Version. Paperback.
ISBN: 978-1-4648-1527-0.
Price: $55.00 

Most emerging market and developing economies weathered the 2009 global recession relatively well, in part by using the sizable fiscal and monetary policy ammunition accumulated during prior years of strong growth. However, their growth prospects have weakened since then, and many now have less policy space.

This study provides the first comprehensive stocktaking of the past decade from the perspective of emerging market and developing economies. Many of these economies have now become more vulnerable to economic shocks.The study discusses lessons from the global recession and policy options for these economies to strengthen growth and prepare for the possibility of another global downturn.

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quarta-feira, 14 de junho de 2017

the world’s fastest-growing economies in 2017 - World Economic Forum


These are the world’s fastest-growing economies in 2017
The World Economic Forum, June 14, 2017


 Image: REUTERS/China Daily
Alex Gray, Formative Content


Ethiopia is the fastest-growing economy in 2017, according to the World Bank’s latest edition of Global Economic Prospects.
Ethiopia’s GDP is forecast to grow by 8.3% in 2017. By contrast, global growth is projected to be 2.7%.
The East African country’s accelerating growth comes on the back of government spending on infrastructure.
However, borrowing to finance Ethiopia’s large public infrastructure projects has led to a rise in public debt, which increased by more than 10% of GDP between 2014 and 2016, and now exceeds 50% of GDP.
Many emerging market economies have high levels of public debt, and the World Bank says it is concerned about this because it could drag down growth.
Worsening drought conditions could also affect Ethiopia’s growth, says the report.

The outlook for the world economy
Global growth is predicted to rise by 2.7% on the back of a pick-up in manufacturing and trade, improved market confidence and a recovery in commodity prices.
Trade increased by around 4% in 2017, up from a post-crisis low of 2.4% in 2016. Although it is expected to remain below pre-financial crisis levels.
Image: The World Bank

Growth in emerging markets and developing economies
As this map shows, much of Asia and Africa (in light blue) are experiencing rapid growth.
Emerging-market and developing economies are anticipated to grow 4.1%far faster than advanced economies.

GDP growth across the world


Image: The World bank

The fastest-growing economies
Uzbekistan has the second-fastest-growing economy, with projected growth of 7.6% thanks to rising oil prices, benign global financing conditions, robust growth in the Euro Area, and generally supportive policies among governments of several large countries in the region.
Nepal is next, with a 7.5% projection. Nepal’s growth has rebounded strongly following a good monsoon, reconstruction efforts after the 2015 earthquakeand normalization of trade with India, says the Bank.
India is the fourth-fastest-growing economy with 7.2% projected growth, thanks in part to a rise in exports and an increase in government spending.
Among the other top 10 performers are Djibouti and Laos with 7% and Cambodia, the Philippines and Myanmar with 6.9%.
China, despite experiencing a slowdown and an economic transition, was in 16th place with 6.5% expected growth, helped by robust consumption and a recovery of exports.



Advanced economies
But advanced economies are improving too. Growth in advanced economies is expected to accelerate to 1.9% in 2017, according to the World Bank.
Europe has experienced strong growth, and growth in the United States is expected to recover in 2017 and to continue at a moderate pace in 2018. Japan also saw robust growth at the start of 2017.


Image: The World Bank

A fragile recovery
However, the World Bank warns that the recovery in the global economy is fragile. New trade restrictionssuch as those promised by President Donald Trumpcould hamper global trade, just as uncertainty over policies could hamper investment. Mounting public debt is also of concern to the Bank, because it says borrowing conditionssuch as interest ratescould get tougher, which would affect countries’ economies. Global government debt has risen by 12% of GDP since 2007, to 47% of GDP by 2016.
At the end of 2016, government debt exceeded its 2007 level by more than 10% of GDP in more than half of emerging market and developing economies. Fiscal balancesthe ability of a country to cope with increases in costs of financingworsened from their 2007 levels by more than 5% of GDP in one-third of these countries, says the Bank.
Image: The World Bank

The Bank says that countries now need to undertake institutional and market reforms in order to attract private investment. This will help sustain growth in the long-term.
“The reassuring news is that trade is recovering,” said World Bank Chief Economist Paul Romer.
“The concern is that investment remains weak. In response, we are shifting our priorities for lending toward projects that can spur follow-on investment by the private sector.”

The pitfalls of using GDP
GDP has been has been widely used over the years to measure economic progress. But many argue that it’s not a useful indicator. Nobel Prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz, IMF head Christine Lagarde and MIT professor Erik Brynjolfsson have all said GDP is a poor indicator of progress, and argued for a change to the way we measure economic and social development.
Alternatives could include measuring jobs, well-being and health. GDP also ignores the impact of important things like climate change.


Originally published at www.weforum.org.

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segunda-feira, 20 de janeiro de 2014

Bresil, les priorites economiques, apres six ans de crise internationale - Interview PRAlmeida, Radio France Culture

Acabo de me ouvir, não narcisisticamente, mas simplesmente porque recebi da Radio France Culture o link da emissão, como registrado abaixo, gravada no último dia 15 de janeiro, quando eu também coloquei neste blog um texto completo, em Francês, que havia preparado como apoio.
Comparando os dois, texto e emissão gravada, vejo que saiu bastante diferente, mas acho que se completam.
Falando nisso, não pretendo me comparar a Chateaubriand, mas o fato de me ouvir, me fez lembrar uma frase dele, que preciso localizar no conjunto de sua obra (vários volumes da Pléiade):

Quand je me regarde, je me désole...
Quando je me compare, je me console...

Eh bien, écoutons...

“Brésil. Les priorités économiques, après six ans de crise internationale”, 
interview à la radio France Culture, avec le Journaliste Thierry Garcin. Émission le 20 Janvier 2014 : 06 :45hs de Paris 

Texto de apoio divulgado no blog Diplomatizzando (“Le Brésil dans l’économie mondiale”, 15/01/2014, link: http://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2014/01/le-bresil-dans-leconomie-mondiale.html). 
Relação de Trabalhos n. 2555. Relação de Publicados n. 1121.  


sexta-feira, 17 de fevereiro de 2012

Brazil and Argentina: a book by Werner Baer and David Fleischer


The Economies of Argentina and Brazil: 

A Comparative Perspective

€ 30.21 (+ VAT)


Edward Elgar Publishing; December 2011
512 pages; ISBN 9781849809979
Read online, or download in secure PDF format

This book compares the successes and failures of the development and growth processes of Argentina and Brazil. It provides important insights into the different performances of these economies through a series of comparative essays written by Argentinian and Brazilian economists. In the last 60 years Argentina and Brazil have both undergone a dramatic process of urbanization and industrialization. While there are similarities between the two, each country has dealt with the side effects in a different manner. In this insightful book, Argentinean and Brazilian economists expertly analyze their country's experiences with processes of industrialization, the performance of the agricultural and service sectors, the impact of foreign investments, the distribution of income, the roles of the state and the privatization experience, and inflationary and stabilization experiences. The contrast of the two emerging countries addressing these challenges will offer students, economists and other social scientists significant new insights into the economic development process.Many of the articles will also appeal to individuals in multinational corporations and banks that have to deal with emerging market economies. 

segunda-feira, 26 de dezembro de 2011

Os emergentes emergem, e como... - Economist


Finance

Hey big spenders

Emerging economies will buy over half of the world’s imports in 2012

The idea that economic power is shifting from the old rich world to emerging economies is hardly new, but it is taking a new form. For the past couple of decades, emerging economies have grabbed a rising share of world manufacturing production and exports, thanks to their lower wage costs. They already produce more than half the world’s exports. But an important new milestone will be reached in 2012, when the upstarts will import more goods than rich economies. That is a dramatic change since 2000, when they imported barely half as much as rich countries did. This rapid growth in developing countries’ buying power will boost the profits of companies in rich economies over the coming years.
The rich world’s financial crisis has hastened the shift in global economic power towards the newcomers. At the beginning of 2012, the total real GDP of the rich economies will be no higher than it was at the end of 2007. In contrast, the output of the emerging economies will have jumped by almost a quarter over the same period. Their combined output (including Asia’s newly industrialised economies, such as South Korea and Taiwan) will account for over two-fifths of world GDP at market exchange rates in the coming year, almost twice the share in 1990. If GDP is instead measured at purchasing-power parity to take account of the fact that prices are lower in poorer countries, emerging economies have already overtaken the developed world.
Rapid growth in incomes, and hence spending, has increased their appetite for foreign goods: imports into emerging markets have grown twice as fast as those into developed ones over the past decade. This partly reflects increasing trade between emerging economies themselves, such as China and Brazil, but their purchases from rich countries have also grown strongly. Almost three-fifths of American exports will head to emerging markets in 2012, nearly double the share in 1990.
China will overtake America as the world's biggest importer by 2014
Emerging economies need to import advanced machinery and equipment from rich countries in order to build new factories and improve their infrastructure. But consumer spending is also rising rapidly. In 2012 emerging markets will account for nearly half of global retail sales. Even more important, the increase in their spending in absolute dollar terms will be twice as big as the increase in the developed world. They already buy over half of all motor vehicles (up from only 20% in 2000), and account for four-fifths of mobile-phone contracts.
China will overtake America as the world’s biggest importer by 2014. Within ten to 15 years emerging markets could produce half of the revenues of several big multinational firms.
An enterprising Englishman in the 1850s famously said that if he “could add an inch of material to every Chinaman’s shirt tail, the mills of Lancashire could be kept busy for a generation.” Those mills have since turned to rust, but selling to China and the world’s other emerging markets will keep many Western firms busy for years to come. 

Pam Woodall: senior economics writer, The Economist