O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

terça-feira, 17 de março de 2020

Covid-19 nos EUA: depoimento de Marina Dias, correspondente FSP

D EPOIMENTO

Contato com infectados me deu direito a difícil teste de coronavírus nos EUA

Rapidez para decidir que poderia fazer exame não é cenário comum no país

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WASHINGTON
"Você está qualificada para fazer o teste."
A enfermeira anunciou o procedimento em uma sala reservada, 45 minutos depois da minha chegada à emergência do Hospital da Universidade Howard, em Washington.
Na manhã desta segunda-feira (16), antes mesmo de alcançar a recepção, eu já tinha sido abordada por um funcionário do hospital sobre o motivo da minha investida.
Avisei que estava ali por causa do coronavírus.
Passageiro com máscara no metrô de Washington, nos EUA
Passageiro com máscara no metrô de Washington, nos EUA - Tom Brenner - 13.mar.20/Reuters
Enquanto ouvia que eu não apresentava sintomas, mas tinha estado em contato próximo a pessoas que receberam o diagnóstico do vírus, ele se apressou em pegar uma máscara e prendê-la ao meu rosto.
"Como você tem certeza de que os pacientes com quem esteve são positivos?", perguntou.
Respondi que eram diversos integrantes da comitiva do presidente Jair Bolsonaro, que viajara na semana passada a Miami, onde eu estava para fazer a cobertura, e que os resultados tinham sido divulgados oficialmente.
Só então ele pediu meu documento e me colocou em uma área de acesso ao estacionamento externo do hospital, sem contato com nenhum outro funcionário ou paciente.
Sentada em uma maca, fui questionada sobre meu último dia de contato com a comitiva de Bolsonaro —terça-feira (10)— e sobre as datas de divulgação dos testes dos auxiliares do presidente —quinta-feira (12) foi o primeiro, do secretário de Comunicação do Planalto, Fabio Wajngarten.
Na sexta-feira (13), foi a vez do indicado à embaixada do Brasil nos EUA, Nestor Forster, seguido por outros nomes no fim de semana.
Depois do primeiro funcionário, uma enfermeira entrou na sala, fez os mesmos questionamentos, mediu minha temperatura, pressão e oxigenação.
"Está tudo bem", disse, anunciando em seguida que eu poderia fazer o teste. Em menos de uma hora, eu tinha a notícia de que seria testada para o coronavírus.
Mas esperei mais duas horas até o médico aferir meus batimentos cardíacos e autorizar que recolhessem o material do meu nariz e boca com uma espécie de cotonete.
Mais 20 minutos para eu ser comunicada de que o resultado ficará pronto somente em cinco dias.
Até lá, explicaram, devo seguir em quarentena sem sair de casa —o que tenho feito desde quinta-feira (12), após retornar de Miami.
"Se der negativo, você está liberada [da quarentena]", disse a enfermeira.
Fiquei quase seis horas no hospital, mas a rapidez com que decidiram que eu poderia fazer o teste e sua realização sem grandes complicações não é o cenário mais comum nos EUA nas últimas semanas.
As autoridades de saúde priorizavam até agora realizar exames em pessoas que apresentassem os principais sintomas (febre e tosse seca) e haviam estado em contato direto com pacientes com diagnóstico positivo para o coronavírus.
No meu primeiro minuto no hospital em Washington, afirmei que não havia apresentado sintomas, exceto um pouco de tosse seca no sábado (7).
Minha preocupação era ter sido exposta a vários casos confirmados na semana passada e ter me tornado um possível vetor de transmissão.
Desde que começaram a circular as primeiras notícias sobre o vírus, no fim de janeiro, americanos encontram dificuldade para fazer o exame em diversas cidades do país.
O presidente Donald Trump foi negligente com a gravidade da crise na largada e seu governo demorou para começar a testar casos suspeitos de maneira ampla.
Especialistas avaliam que, se a pandemia durar mais que o esperado ou o contágio entre os americanos ficar mais grave nas próximas semanas, as falhas iniciais no processo dos testes serão as principais culpadas.
Os problemas vão desde escassez no número de testes e material disponíveis até a morosidade dos protocolos.
A avaliação é de que o quadro deixou os EUA no escuro por muito tempo e que o vírus pode ter se espalhado com mais força sem que tenha sido possível detectar sua verdadeira extensão no país.
Levantamentos indicam que, até sexta (13), 20 mil testes haviam sido feitos nos EUA.
Na Coreia do Sul, cuja população é seis vezes menor do que a americana, 250 mil exames tinham sido realizados no mesmo período.
Trump minimizava a pandemia até a semana passada, quando declarou emergência nacional e outras medidas que foram vistas como uma forma brusca de corrigir a rota.
Ele prometeu mais 1,4 milhão de testes para o coronavírus até esta semana e 5 milhões até o fim do mês, por meio de uma parceria com o sistema privado. Não ficou claro, no entanto, se os exames serão gratuitos.
No meu caso, não precisei pagar pelo teste na hora. Ele estava coberto pelo plano de saúde que tenho no Brasil e é conveniado com uma empresa americana.
Até a primeira semana de março, os casos confirmados de coronavírus nos EUA estavam em cerca de 500 e, em menos de dez dias, saltaram para 4.118, com ao menos 74 mortos.
Com o avanço dos testes, o crescimento dos diagnósticos positivos deve ser ainda mais vertiginoso e, com mais gente infectada, as medidas de distanciamento social serão imprescindíveis.
Neste fim de semana, o CDC (Centro de Controle de Doenças dos EUA) recomendou a suspensão de eventos com mais de 50 pessoas pelas próximas oito semanas, enquanto cidades como Nova York e Washington anunciaram restrições para o funcionamento de escolas e do comércio local.
Trump, por sua vez, também endureceu as medidas nacionais contra a pandemia.
Nesta segunda, fez um apelo aos americanos para que fiquem em casa. Pediu que pelo menos nos próximos 15 dias reuniões com mais de dez pessoas sejam evitadas, bem como viagens e ida a bares e restaurantes.
Na saída do hospital em Washington, a enfermeira me deu uma máscara de material reforçado para cobrir o rosto: "Use caso você precise ir ao mercado antes de sair o resultado do seu exame".

segunda-feira, 16 de março de 2020

Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve - Visual Capitalist

Infection Trajectory: See Which Countries are Flattening Their COVID-19 Curve

Visual Capitalist, 


https://www.visualcapitalist.com/infection-trajectory-flattening-the-covid19-curve/


At the outset of 2020, the world looked on as China grappled with an outbreak that seemed be spiraling out of control.
Two months later, the situation is markedly different. After aggressive testing and quarantine efforts, China’s outbreak of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) appears to be leveling off.
Now, numerous countries around the world are in the beginning stages of managing their own outbreaks. March 15th, 2020, marked a significant statistical milestone for this, as confirmed cases of COVID-19 outside of China surpassed the Chinese total.
The tracker above, by Our World in Data, charts the trajectory of the growing number of countries with more than 100 confirmed cases of COVID-19. As the number of new infections reported around the world continues to grow, which countries are winning the battle against COVID-19, and which are still struggling to slow the rate of infection?

What’s Your National Infection Trajectory?

As of publishing time, 39 countries have passed the threshold of 100 confirmed cases, with many more countries on the cusp. By comparing infection trajectories from the 100 case mark, we’re able to see a clearer picture of how quickly the virus is spreading within various countries.
A rapid “doubling rate” can spell big trouble, as even countries with advanced healthcare systems can become overwhelmed by the sheer number of cases. This was the case in the Lombardy region of Italy, where hospitals were overloaded and an increasing number of medical staff are under quarantine after testing positive for the virus. Nearly 10% of COVID-19 patients in Lombardy required intensive care, which stretched resources to their breaking point.
Other countries are looking to avoid this situation by “flattening the curve” of the pandemic. In other words, preventing and delaying the spread of the virus so that large portions of the population aren’t sick at the same time.
flattening the covid19 curve
Original concept by Drew Harris

Everything’s Canceled

While all the countries on this tracker are united behind a common goal – stamping out COVID-19 as soon as possible – each country has its own approach and unique challenges when it comes to keeping their population safe. Of course, countries that are just beginning to experience exponential growth in case numbers have the benefit of learning from mistakes made elsewhere, and adopting ideas that are proving successful at slowing the rate of infection.
Many jurisdictions are implementing some or all of these measures to help flatten the curve:
  • Quarantining
  • Encouraging social distancing
  • Encouraging working from home
  • Closing schools and other institutions
  • Placing hard limits on the size of crowds at events
The following chart explains why this last measure is critical to limiting the spread of the virus.
event risk assessment chart
In scenario B above, which assumes just 20,000 active cases of COVID-19 in the U.S., there’s nearly a 50% chance an infected person will be attending a 10,000 person conference or sporting event. This is precisely the reason why temporary limits on crowd size are popping up in many jurisdictions around the world.


Direct losses due to canceled tech conferences alone, such as SXSW and the Electronic Entertainment Expo, have already surpassed the $1 billion mark, but despite the short-term economic pain of cancellations and decreased entertainment spending, the costs of business-as-usual could be incalculable.

Economic Consequences of the Virus - Antony Mueller

The Economic Consequences of the Virus

Mar 16 · 5 min read
I have nothing to say about the fatality of the Coronavirus. I have something to say about the economic consequences of the virus outbreak and the response to it.
Whatever the death rate from the coronavirus may be, the reaction to the threat is even more deadly. If the present economic blockade will go on, we will soon have no longer the means to provide basic supplies. Without transport, we will run out of food. Essential medicines will no longer be available. This is how a containment strategy works: ailment cured, patient dead.
If the governments continue acting the way they do, we will no longer be able to buy necessary items because the shelves are empty. Later, when the shelves may be filling up again, people won’t be able to buy because they will have no more money left in their pockets.
Companies will have closed, and salaries do not show up in our bank accounts. Not the coronavirus brings down the economy, but the way politics responds to the epidemic. Even if the current nightmare should end and the curfews and travel bans will no longer be in place, it will take more than a decade for the economy to recuperate — not from the virus but from the reaction to the virus.
The real threat is not the coronavirus but the wave of bankruptcy and unemployment that will move soon across the economies like a tsunami. We will experience massive impoverishment — not because of the epidemic, but because of politics.
When there will be heaps of dead corpses in the streets in the future, the cause will not be the Coronavirus but the result of the lack of essential medicine that will no longer be available because of the interruption of the global supply lines.
If the Chinese had not made such a show about the Coronavirus would the Western world reacted differently? Did the endeavor of the Chinese government to gain absolute control over its people inspire the Western leaders to do the same? If there had been no drastic measures by the Chinese would Western countries even have noted that a new virus is making its rounds?
Has the West been framed? Maybe the Chinese had no intention to trap the West. Just by way of authoritarianism, the Chinese government moved in with all force to stamp out the fire and eliminate some dissidents along the way.
The horrible thing is not that the Western leaders have fallen into the trap — full of hubris as they are — that was to be expected. The horrible thing is how quickly the people in the West have succumbed to authoritarianism. Without any noticeable rise in the general death rate of the population in Europe and the United States, the governments have brought a plague over their own countries by a policy of shutdowns that crush the very means to fight an epidemic if there had really been one.
Politics as it is: at first, the government destroys the economy, then it acts as its repair shops and claims its indispensability. The call for “getting ready” and “being prepared” for the coronavirus epidemic is an expression of modern hubris, of the creed that man was in control of everything — a master above all ailments and the ruler of the world.
In the end, the costs of fighting the epidemic will be higher than the damage if we let the virus have its run. This is the true tragedy of what is going on now and it is the result of our arrogant attitude, the false claim that we are the masters of the universe.
This is not a horror movie. The terror is real. It would be a great error to expect that after the current turmoil, life would get on as before. Who needs martial law when you can get more power by declaring a medical emergency?
The main lesson so far to be drawn from the coronavirus outbreak is, firstly, that politics exists in managing those problems that would not exist without politics; secondly, that it goes surprisingly fast and easy to establish a dictatorship; and, thirdly, that there is no lack of willing executioners.
What we currently see in Europe, the United States and some other countries are the most irresponsible acts committed by the rulers who play with the fears of the people and pretend to protect them when in fact they have nothing else in mind but only their power-grabbing and our enslavement.
Yes, there is reason to panic, but it is not because of the virus but of the coronavirus politics. The organized panic is a fine test for the State how far it can go to terrorize the citizens and rob them of their freedom without meeting any resistance. Like sheep, people follow the commands of their leader who prepares the lambs to pass silently into the slaughterhouse.
Virology, epidemiology, and the areas connected reveal that almost everything the mass media, the politicians and the governments pronounce is false or highly distorted.
The official corona death count is fake. There is no reliable method to establish from finding the coronavirus in a corpse that this person has died because of the virus. The lives of human beings end due to innumerable factors and old people die anyway. They die from many causes and sometimes die without any reason at all.
Sooner or later, every man must die. If a coronavirus is found in a body, this does not prove that the virus was the cause of death. The virus is just one of an immense number of possible causes, yet to indicate the virus as the cause is currently quite fashionable and spares many additional investigations.
As it would be absurd to claim that because one finds water in the body of a dead person that water was the cause of death, so it is equally wrong to claim that the coronavirus was the origin of a person’s demise because coronavirus can be found in the corpse. Nevertheless, this is how these death statistics are currently made up.
The statistics about the number of the virus bearers are fake because the error rates of test kits for new viruses are usually extremely high and in the case of the coronavirus, they may be even higher because the demand for them has risen extremely in a short time. Having a data set does not mean that the data in the set represent the facts.
Finding something “new”, does not mean that it has not existed before. In medicine, too, a “new” virus is not necessarily a new virus. Most of the time a new virus is the modification of some old virus. Such modifications happen all of the time. Without specific tests, they remain undetected. If they were detected, we would have reason to panic almost every day.
One can be sure that when the coronavirus epidemic is over, another virus will appear sooner or later. Imagine that each time politics will react as it was done with corona and the tragic absurdity of the present anti-virus policy becomes obvious.
Beyond the economic damage lurks an even greater tragedy of the current virus policy: the loss of basic human rights and of our individual freedom. Given the modern means of surveillance, a new totalitarianism would exceed all the terrors known from the dictatorial regimes of the past.