A pior situação possível: em lugar de alto crescimento e baixa inflação, como gostariam os aprendizes de feiticeiro, vamos ter alta inflação e baixo crescimento.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazil Macro Flash: CPI Inflation Continues at High and Undesirable Level
- February’s first half
CPI inflation stood at 0.68% m/m, above market
consensus. As a result, the annual inflation reached 6.18% (from
6.15% in January’s CPI). The main upward pressures of the monthly
CPI were food prices and education costs. Core inflation declined,
staying inside the inflation target band. For the end of this
month, we expect February’s CPI inflation to decline further to
around 0.45% reflecting additional impact of energy prices drop.
Looking ahead, we expect CPI to increase 5.6% in
- In the monthly result,
food prices increased 1.74%, less than
the 1.99% figure seen in January’s CPI. Moreover, education costs
rose 5.49% m/m, reflecting the annual increase in tuition fees.
Energy prices plummeted 13.5% m/m and should decrease
further in February’s CPI.
- The average of core inflation
measures declined to 0.48%,
from the 0.67% figure
registered in January’s CPI. This average represents 6.0% on
annualized terms. The diffusion index also decreased to 71% (from
75% in January).
- Lastly, services inflation decreased slightly to 8.5% over the last 12 months compared to the 8.6% print in January. As these prices are related to labor market conditions, we do not expect services inflation to decline markedly in the near future. (Citigroup)
Announced: Friday, February 22, at 7:00 a.m. (NYT)
Actual: 0.68% Month Over Month
Previous: 0.86% Month Over Month (January’s CPI)
Consensus: 0.62% Month Over Month
Citi: 0.65% Month Over Month