60 anos de "Pensando no Impensável" de Herman Khan, e do Hudson Institute, um dos melhores think tanks paranóicos dos EUA

O Hudson Institute é um dos mais antigos think tanks paranóicos dos EUA, e um dos de melhor qualidade, sem deixar de ser paranóicos. Mas os soviéticos também eram, o que diminui um pouco a culpa dos gringos. Lembro-me de quando Herman Khan veio ao Brasil, no início da ditadura militar, com seu sonho impossível de unir as três grandes bacias hidrográficas, ou pelo menos a platina e a amazônica por meio de grandes lagos no interior do Brasil. A ideia era tão maluco que acho que nem os militares mais americanófilos toparam sequer considerar a hipótese.

No seu livro O Ano 2000, feito em meados dos anos 1960, com dados econômicos do Brasil do início da década, ele previa o Brasil ainda muito pobre no ano 2000 justamente. Por causa do livro, Roberto Campos e Mario Henrique Simonsen escreveram dois livros, Brasil 2001 e depois Brasil 2002, prevendo um futuro brilhante para o Brasil. Todos eles erraram: o Brasil não ficou tão pobre quanto previa Herman Khan, mas tampouco chegou à prosperidade como aventavam Campos e Simonsen. Creio que com algum esforços dos petistas e do Bolsonaro estamos chegando novamente na pobreza. 

Acho que o Herman Khan ganhou pelo menos essa, não porque ele acertou, mas porque o Brasil errou muito mais do que deveria ou poderia.

O Hudson Institute tem como motos "Security. Freedom. Prosperity". Tudo muito bem, apesar de que eu inverteria a ordem dos fatores, mas ele representa um mundo à parte, válido apenas para os americanos, que veem o mundo segundo uma "geografia" muito simples, não a terra plana, mas uma terra feita de duas partes bem distintas: America and the ROW, Rest of the World. Os americanos estão tão entranhados num mundo que só é o deles, que se enganam quanto ao resto do mundo.

Eles são tão "bolcheviques" na defesa do capitalismo quanto o eram os verdadeiros bolcheviques na defesa do comunismo. No fundo, eles estão certos em defender o capitalismo, as liberdades, a economia de mercado, como sinais de prosperidade, mas o fazem com o fundamentalismo dos true believers na redenção dos pagãos, como foram (e ainda são) muitos "missionários" da verdadeira fé, querendo convertes os demais. Deveriam mostrar pelo exemplo, não pela imposição. Essa geografia simplória deles atrapalha um bocado na política externa e na diplomacia.

Espero que pelos próximos 60 anos, "humbled" pela China, eles mudem sua visão do mundo, pois já são três ou quatro gerações que se acreditam estar na vanguard do mundo e como "farol da democracia". Se não houver uma guerra, eles vão começar a repensar sua relação com o mundo, que começa por uma tomada de consciência de suas deficiências internas, a tal prosperidade que lhes faz ainda falta.

Paulo Roberto de Almeida

No images? Click here   Hudson founders Herman Kahn and Max Singer pictured during the Institute's early years.  video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dA4qq6jyOTc Hudson Institute celebrated its 60th anniversary this week, marking more than half a century of policy research dedicated to keeping America and its allies secure, free, and prosperous. Founded in 1961, Hudson Institute was established to foster a better understanding of deterrence in the atomic age and create the conditions for the free world to triumph over communism. Its founder Herman Kahn, a leading defense intellectual of the atomic age, wrote the groundbreaking book Thinking About the Unthinkable, which urged policymakers to plan for nuclear war to prevent it from occurring. This approach to tackling the most challenging foreign policy issues has informed Hudson’s decades-long tradition of unconventional thinking. Watch our anniversary video and read key excerpts from Thinking About the Unthinkableto learn more.   60th Anniversary Video Thinking About the Unthinkable         Thinking About the Unthinkable with Herman Kahn     Key excerpts from Herman Kahn's 1962 book Thinking About the Unthinkable.   1. Approach National Security with Dispassionate Clarity   Critics frequently refer to the icy rationality of the Hudson Institute, the Rand Corporation, and other such organizations. I’m always tempted to ask in reply, “Would you prefer a warm, human error? Do you feel better with a nice emotional mistake?” We cannot expect good discussion of security problems if we are going to label every attempt at detachment as callous, every attempt at objectivity as immoral. Such attitudes not only block discussion of the immediate issues, they lead to a disunity and fragmentation of the intellectual community that can be disastrous to the democratic dialogue between specialist and layman. The former tends to withdraw to secret and private discussions; the latter becomes more and more innocent, or naive, and more likely to be outraged if he is ever exposed to a professional discussion.   2. The Risks of Modern Technology Must Not Be Ignored   Reality may be so unpleasant that decision makers would prefer not to face it; but to a great extent this reality has been forced on them, or has come uninvited. Thanks to our ever-increasing technology, we are living in a terrible and dangerous world; but, unlike the lady in the cartoon we cannot say, “Stop the world, I want to get off.” We cannot get off. Even the most utopian of today’s visionaries will have to concede that the mere existence of modern technology involves a risk to civilization that would have been unthinkable twenty-five years ago.   3. 'Unthinkable' Scenarios Must Be Given Serious Consideration   Many intelligent and sincere people are willing to argue that it is immoral to think and even more immoral to write in detail about having to fight a thermonuclear war...We Americans and many people throughout the world are not prepared to face reality, that we transfer our horror of thermonuclear war to reports about the realities of thermonuclear war. In our times, thermonuclear war may seem unthinkable, immoral, insane, hideous, or highly unlikely, but it is not impossible. To act intelligently we must learn as much as we can about the risks...We must appreciate these possibilities. We cannot wish them away. Nor should we overestimate and assume the worst is inevitable. This leads only to defeatism, inadequate preparations (because they seem useless), and pressures toward either preventive war or undue accommodation.   Quotes may be edited for clarity and length.   60th Anniversary Video Thinking About the Unthinkable     Hudson Institute celebrated its 60th anniversary with a reception in New York City on Wednesday evening with a discussion featuring Hudson Distinguished Fellows Walter Russell Mead and Kenneth R. Weinstein and Senior Fellows Nadia Schadlow and Michael Doran, moderated by Hudson President and CEO John P. Walters.

Go Deeper

Deter Russia by Arming NATO Allies

As Russian troops mass on the border with Ukraine, the U.S. must act urgently to protect states on the front line and restore deterrence in Europe, writes Hudson Senior Fellow William Schneider in The Wall Street Journal. The failure to stand firm against Russian aggression risks destroying the entire postwar security system in Europe.  Read

The Realistic Path to Deterring China

The blurred line between peace and war exemplified by China's gray-zone military operations renders the Pentagon’s traditional planning constructs obsolete, write Hudson Senior Fellows Bryan Clark and Dan Pattin National Review. As the Pentagon completes its new defense strategy, it should ensure that the U.S. military looks beyond the Taiwan Strait to focus on reducing the Chinese military's operational confidence. Read

The Diminishing Path to Growth: Can Xi Jinping Avoid Crisis during China's Economic Transition?

Predictions that China’s integration into the global market would transform the country into a responsible stakeholder have foundered on the reality of Xi Jinping's increasingly mercantilist economic policies. Is the country headed towards financial catastrophe? Hudson Senior Fellow Thomas Duesterberg assesses the economic challenges faced by China in a new policy memo.  Read

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