Derrota de Putin na Ucrânia pode ter consequências inimagináveis
Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;
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quinta-feira, 29 de junho de 2023
Derrota de Putin na Ucrânia pode ter consequências inimagináveis - Thomas Friedman (NYT, OESP)
terça-feira, 21 de fevereiro de 2023
Putin faz nova chantagem nuclear: guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia
Mais um blefe, e uma chantagem, de quem sabe que já perdeu:
“President Vladimir Putin said Russia would suspend participation in New START, its last major nuclear arms control treaty with the U.S.” (NYT)
Não vai conseguir outra coisa senão nova corrida armamentista. Numa anterior, a de mísseis balisticos iniciada prla URSS, os EUA responderam com outro programa de keynesianismo militar, um pouco lunático, a famosa Star Wars Initiative, que serviu para aprofundar o déficit fiscal americano.
Mas teve pelo menos um efeito positivo: afundou de vez, junto com a coragem do Papa Wojtilla (João Paulo II), a esclerosada União Soviética.
Fez um bem à humanidade, ainda que temporário. Sempre aparecem tiranos desvairados, pequenos e grandes ditadores, em países grandes e pequenos.
No mais, a humanidade progrediu muito pouco: paixões e interesses dominam as relações de poder, dentro dos, e entre os Estados.
Tem sido assim desde a guerra de Troia (mas a Helena não teve nada a ver com o conflito entre a Grécia e uma de suas colônias). Mas Putin não tem nada de Menelau: está mais para uma combinação de Hitler com Mussolini: os dois tiveram triste fim, depois de arrasarem seus respectivos países e vários em volta.
Assim caminha a humanidade, como um desengonçado carro de bois, avançando lentamente por uma estrada lamacenta e esburacada, sem muita visão do que vem pela frente.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brasília, 21/02/2023
terça-feira, 14 de fevereiro de 2023
Israel e a democracia - Tom Friedman (NYT, Estadão)
Thomas Friedman: Biden envia uma mensagem clara a Israel, em 46 palavras
terça-feira, 7 de fevereiro de 2023
O segundo ano da guerra na Ucrânia será assustador - Thomas Friedman (NYT, Estadão)
O segundo ano da guerra na Ucrânia será assustador; leia o artigo de Thomas Friedman
terça-feira, 31 de janeiro de 2023
Guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia: os novos mercenários, saídos das prisões (NYT)
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Russia’s convict fighters |
In July, Yevgeny Prigozhin, the founder of Russia’s largest private military group, Wagner, started arriving via helicopter at prisons around the country with an offer to the inmates: Pay your debt to society by joining a private army in Ukraine. |
Prigozhin promised the prisoners they would receive 100,000 rubles a month — the equivalent of $1,700 at the time, and nearly double Russia’s average monthly wage. He also offered bravery bonuses, $80,000 death payouts and, should they fulfill the six-month contract, freedom in the form of a presidential pardon. |
Those who ran away, used drugs or alcohol or had sexual relations, he warned, would be killed. |
My colleagues Anatoly Kurmanaev, Alina Lobzina and Ekaterina Bodyagina reported on the recruitment drive and the return to Russia of some convict fighters after they fulfilled the contract. |
“These are psychologically broken people who are returning with a sense of righteousness, a belief that they have killed to defend the Motherland,” said Yana Gelmel, a Russian prisoner rights lawyer who works with enlisted inmates. “These can be very dangerous people.” |
Since July, around 40,000 inmates have joined the Russian forces, according to Western intelligence agencies, the Ukrainian government and a prisoners’ rights association. Ukraine claims that nearly 30,000 have deserted or been killed or wounded, mostly in the fighting around the eastern city of Bakhmut, though that figure is difficult to confirm. |
A former inmate himself, Prigozhin showed that he understood prison culture, skillfully combining a threat of punishment with a promise of a new, dignified life, according to rights activists and families. |
“I needed your criminal talents to kill the enemy in the war,” Prigozhin said in one video. “Those who want to return, we are waiting for you to come back. Those who want to get married, get baptized, study — go ahead with a blessing.” |
Most of the enlisted men were serving time for petty crimes like robbery and theft, but records from one penal colony seen by The New York Times show that the recruits also included men convicted of aggravated rape and multiple murders. |
“There are no more crimes and no more punishments,” Olga Romanova, the head of Russia Behind Bars, said. “Anything is permissible now, and this brings very far-reaching consequences for any country.” |
segunda-feira, 2 de janeiro de 2023
Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, January 2, 2023 - Carole Landry (NYT)
Welcome back to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict. |
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A lethal start to 2023 |
Ukrainian forces used U.S.-supplied guided rockets to hit a building housing dozens of Russian soldiers in the eastern Donetsk region on New Year’s Day, Russian and Ukrainian officials said today. It was one of the deadliest strikes on Russian forces since the beginning of the war 10 months ago. |
The Russian Defense Ministry said that 63 service members had been killed in the strike in the city of Makiivka while Ukrainian officials said about 400 Russians had died. A spokesman for the Russian-installed government in the Donetsk region, Daniil Bezsonov, called the strike “a massive blow” and suggested that Russian forces were partly at fault. |
“The enemy inflicted the most serious defeats in this war on us not because of their coolness and talent, but because of our mistakes,” he wrote in a post on Telegram. |
A former Russian paramilitary commander, Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, wrote on Telegram that “many hundreds” were dead and wounded and that many “remained under the rubble.” |
The barracks set up in a vocational school were “almost completely destroyed” because “ammunition stored in the same building” detonated in the strike, Girkin said. |
A report in Russian state media said that “active use of cellular phones by the newly arrived servicemen” in that unit had helped Ukrainian forces pinpoint their location and launch the assault using HIMARS rocket launchers. |
The attack came as the war appeared set to grind on, with leaders of Ukraine and Russia vowing in their New Year’s messages to press on with their military campaigns and prevail. There appears to be little hope for peace negotiations in the near future. |
President Vladimir Putin broke from practice and delivered his New Year’s address not from the Kremlin, but from an unspecified military base, flanked by soldiers. The Russian leader struck a defiant tone, asserting that “moral and historical righteousness is on our side.” |
Russian soldiers, Putin said, were fighting to secure “peace and security guarantees for Russia,” while the West was using Ukraine “to weaken and split up Russia.” |
In his own New Year’s address, President Volodymyr Zelensky recalled that 2022 had begun with fear over Russia’s invasion but ended with hopes for victory. “We have overcome doubts, despair and fear, ” he said. |
“Let this year be the year of return,” Zelensky said of 2023. “The return of our people. Soldiers — to their families. Prisoners — to their homes. Immigrants — to their Ukraine. Return of our lands.” |
Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities greeted the New Year with air-raid sirens and explosive thuds from Russian missile attacks. |
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Follow our coverage of the war on the @nytimes channel. |
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A Times investigation into Bucha |
An eight-month visual investigation by The Times has documented the killing of 36 Ukrainian civilians in Bucha during the Russian occupation, and identified the Russian unit behind one of the worst atrocities of the war. |
The victims were killed along Yablunska Street in Bucha as Moscow’s forces sought to secure a route to Kyiv. |
A team of Times reporters spent months in Bucha after Russian forces withdrew in late March, interviewing residents, collecting security-camera footage and obtaining records from government sources. |
The Times concluded that the perpetrators of the killings along Yablunska Street were Russian paratroopers from the 234th Air Assault Regiment, based in the city of Pskov in western Russia and led by Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov. |
One of the most chilling findings from the investigation came from a cellphone database that showed that several Russian soldiers killed Ukrainian civilians and then used their phones to call home to Russia. |
Hours before Russian troops began withdrawing from Bucha, a lone Russian soldier, either drunk or high, went on a rampage, looking for wine. Through interviews with local officials, neighbors and family members, my colleagues Carlotta Gall and Oleksandr Chubko reconstructed a night of horror. |
The soldier took Oleksandr Kryvenko, 75, at gunpoint and made him bang on the doors of private homes. They ended up at the large property of Oleksandr Rzhavsky, 63, a retired politician who apparently let the Russian and his hostage into his house. They sat at the dining table, and Rzhavsky gave them wine, according to neighbors. |
Something snapped that evening, and the soldier, named Aleksei, opened fire on the two men at the table, killing Kryvenko in his chair with three bullets to the chest. Rzhavsky was shot in the head. The soldier then threw a grenade and injured his leg in the explosion. |
The soldier’s unit fetched him in the morning and disposed of the bodies. But the grief of family members remains raw. Two women in the house at the time, Rzhavsky’s wife and his sister, hid and managed to escape injury. |
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Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Wednesday. — Carole |