Russia-Ukraine War Briefing - The New York Times, Jan 25, 2023

The New York Times, Jan 25, 2023 

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Ukraine said that its forces had retreated from Soledar, bringing Russian forces closer to the eastern city of Bakhmut. Several top Ukrainian officials including a deputy defense minister were fired amid a growing corruption scandal. The U.S. will boost its production of artillery shells by 500 percent within two years to make up for shortfalls caused by the war. A cemetery used by the Russian mercenary group Wagner has grown rapidly in size over the past several months, according to satellite imagery and video footage. Get the latest updates here.

A U.S. Abrams tank during military exercises in Poland in 2016.David Mdzinarishvili/Reuters

Tanks, finally

Germany and the U.S. announced today that they would send battle tanks to Ukraine, a move meant to unlock a wave of heavier aid to help Ukrainian forces beat back Russian forces.

President Biden spoke just hours after Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Germany would send an initial shipment of 14 Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine and lift export restrictions to allow other nations to send their own.

Speaking at the White House, Biden said the U.S. would provide 31 Abrams tanks, addressing Germany’s insistence that it would not supply the weaponry unless the U.S. did the same.

In recent weeks, the dispute with Germany had turned bitter, exposing divisions within NATO. Some German politicians and European leaders argued that Berlin was squandering a chance for leadership in Europe and actively hindering its allies.

While the pledges fell far short of the 300 tanks that Ukraine had said it needed to gain a decisive upper hand on the battlefield, Germany’s announcement prompted Finland, the Netherlands and Spain to say that they would also send tanks to Ukraine or were open to doing so.

Poland said yesterday that it was seeking Germany’s permission to send Leopard tanks from its own stocks. Britain has pledged to send 14 Challenger 2 tanks.

With Germany finally on board, attention turned to getting the tanks to the front lines quickly. It could take months for the first Leopard to arrive on the battlefield, and a year or longer for the Abrams.

A German Leopard 2 tank in 2011.Michael Sohn/Associated Press

“Sending the armor has the potential to be a game-changer,” said Daniel Fried, a former U.S. ambassador to Poland. “But it depends on when they get there. If you add up the tanks, plus the Bradleys, plus the German Marders, plus the French armored vehicles — once they all get there and are integrated into the Ukrainian forces, the Ukrainians are going to have a lot more punch.”

The Pentagon had been reluctant to send Abrams tanks, in part because they are challenging to operate and maintain. The Leopard 2 is a natural choice for Ukraine because it is easier to operate and there are already hundreds potentially available in Europe.

After Ukraine’s Russian-made tanks were destroyed or disabled in combat, there were fewer replacements to be found, my colleague John Ismay, who covers the Pentagon, told me.

Along with the deliveries of Abrams and Leopard tanks, “NATO nations also have stockpiles of ammunition and spare parts that Ukrainian troops can use to keep them engaged in combat against Russian forces,” he said.

Russia’s ambassador to Germany, Sergey Nechayev, warned that Germany’s move was an “extremely dangerous decision” that “takes the conflict to a new level of confrontation.”

The decision by the U.S. and Germany will generate enough tanks for about three new Ukrainian battalions. Western officials say that providing tanks and other heavy weaponry to Ukraine will prevent a long and static war that could favor Russia’s military.

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What else we’re following

To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription.

In Ukraine

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, writes in Politico that the mistakes of previous cease-fire deals with Russia must be avoided to prevent an even bloodier war. Ukrainians have donated about $500 million directly to the army. Two British volunteers were killed while trying to rescue an elderly woman in Soledar, the BBC reported. Fifteen journalists were killed in Ukraine in 2022, according to a report from the Committee to Protect Journalists. Foreign Affairs asked experts whether Ukraine would end up making territorial concessions to Russia.

Around the world

Swiss lawmakers are weighing whether to relax their policy of neutralityand allow countries to provide Swiss-made armaments to Ukraine. The Spanish police have arrested a 74-year-old man on suspicion of carrying out a letter bomb campaign that targeted several offices including the U.S. and Ukrainian embassies. Turkey has indefinitely postponed a meeting with Finland and Sweden to discuss their bid to join NATO. Russia and Estonia downgraded relations and each ordered the other’s ambassador out of the country. Latvia said that it, too, would downgrade relations with Russia. Russia’s invasion shook up Radio Free Europe’s operations, bringing in new audiences and highlighting the importance of its mission. The Doomsday Clock was set to the closest to midnight it had ever reached, largely because of Russia’s invasion. The U.S. has confronted China with evidence that some Chinese state-owned companies may be providing assistance for Russia’s war effort, Bloomberg reports.

We also recommend

From Opinion: A U.S. Special Forces soldier writes about the U.S.-trained Afghan commandos who have been recruited by Russia to fight in Ukraine. A collection of five episodes from “The Daily” looks back on the war.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Friday. — Carole

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Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, January 2, 2023 - Carole Landry (NYT)

 

Welcome back to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Russia attacked Kyiv with exploding drones in a follow-up strike after missiles and drones were fired on the city over the New Year’s holiday. The global food crisis is worsening and has become one of the furthest-reaching consequences of Russia’s war. Ukrainian officials are cracking down on a branch of the Russian Orthodox Church that they say has been infiltrated by priests, monks and nuns who have aided Russia in the war. Get the latest updates here.

An image from video footage showed the aftermath of a Ukrainian missile attack at a vocational school in the Donetsk region on New Year’s Day.Reuters

A lethal start to 2023

Ukrainian forces used U.S.-supplied guided rockets to hit a building housing dozens of Russian soldiers in the eastern Donetsk region on New Year’s Day, Russian and Ukrainian officials said today. It was one of the deadliest strikes on Russian forces since the beginning of the war 10 months ago.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that 63 service members had been killed in the strike in the city of Makiivka while Ukrainian officials said about 400 Russians had died. A spokesman for the Russian-installed government in the Donetsk region, Daniil Bezsonov, called the strike “a massive blow” and suggested that Russian forces were partly at fault.

“The enemy inflicted the most serious defeats in this war on us not because of their coolness and talent, but because of our mistakes,” he wrote in a post on Telegram.

A former Russian paramilitary commander, Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, wrote on Telegram that “many hundreds” were dead and wounded and that many “remained under the rubble.”

The barracks set up in a vocational school were “almost completely destroyed” because “ammunition stored in the same building” detonated in the strike, Girkin said.

A report in Russian state media said that “active use of cellular phones by the newly arrived servicemen” in that unit had helped Ukrainian forces pinpoint their location and launch the assault using HIMARS rocket launchers.

The attack came as the war appeared set to grind on, with leaders of Ukraine and Russia vowing in their New Year’s messages to press on with their military campaigns and prevail. There appears to be little hope for peace negotiations in the near future.

President Vladimir Putin broke from practice and delivered his New Year’s address not from the Kremlin, but from an unspecified military base, flanked by soldiers. The Russian leader struck a defiant tone, asserting that “moral and historical righteousness is on our side.”

Russian soldiers, Putin said, were fighting to secure “peace and security guarantees for Russia,” while the West was using Ukraine “to weaken and split up Russia.”

In his own New Year’s address, President Volodymyr Zelensky recalled that 2022 had begun with fear over Russia’s invasion but ended with hopes for victory. “We have overcome doubts, despair and fear, ” he said.

“Let this year be the year of return,” Zelensky said of 2023. “The return of our people. Soldiers — to their families. Prisoners — to their homes. Immigrants — to their Ukraine. Return of our lands.”

Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities greeted the New Year with air-raid sirens and explosive thuds from Russian missile attacks.

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Follow our coverage of the war on the @nytimes channel.

Russian paratroopers in Bucha on March 3, 2022.

A Times investigation into Bucha

An eight-month visual investigation by The Times has documented the killing of 36 Ukrainian civilians in Bucha during the Russian occupation, and identified the Russian unit behind one of the worst atrocities of the war.

The victims were killed along Yablunska Street in Bucha as Moscow’s forces sought to secure a route to Kyiv.

A team of Times reporters spent months in Bucha after Russian forces withdrew in late March, interviewing residents, collecting security-camera footage and obtaining records from government sources.

The Times concluded that the perpetrators of the killings along Yablunska Street were Russian paratroopers from the 234th Air Assault Regiment, based in the city of Pskov in western Russia and led by Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov.

One of the most chilling findings from the investigation came from a cellphone database that showed that several Russian soldiers killed Ukrainian civilians and then used their phones to call home to Russia.

Hours before Russian troops began withdrawing from Bucha, a lone Russian soldier, either drunk or high, went on a rampage, looking for wine. Through interviews with local officials, neighbors and family members, my colleagues Carlotta Gall and Oleksandr Chubko reconstructed a night of horror.

The soldier took Oleksandr Kryvenko, 75, at gunpoint and made him bang on the doors of private homes. They ended up at the large property of Oleksandr Rzhavsky, 63, a retired politician who apparently let the Russian and his hostage into his house. They sat at the dining table, and Rzhavsky gave them wine, according to neighbors.

Something snapped that evening, and the soldier, named Aleksei, opened fire on the two men at the table, killing Kryvenko in his chair with three bullets to the chest. Rzhavsky was shot in the head. The soldier then threw a grenade and injured his leg in the explosion.

The soldier’s unit fetched him in the morning and disposed of the bodies. But the grief of family members remains raw. Two women in the house at the time, Rzhavsky’s wife and his sister, hid and managed to escape injury.

What else we’re following

To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription.

In Ukraine

A Times investigation has identified and independently verified 339 Ukrainian cultural sites that sustained substantial damage in 2022.

Around the world

The Biden administration has embarked on a broad effort to halt Iran’s ability to provide drones to Russia. Some two dozen notable Russians have died in 2022 in mysterious ways, succumbing to what The Atlantic calls Sudden Russian Death Syndrome. From Opinion: Western diplomacy should seek not to avoid Putin’s red lines, but to change them, Nigel Gould-Davies writes.

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In the geopolitical realignment that has followed Russia’s invasion, India is pursuing its interests with a new assertiveness.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Wednesday. — Carole

Russia-Ukraine war Briefing, December 16, 2022 - The New York Times

 Carole Landry, New York Times, December 16, 2022

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Russia launched dozens of missiles at Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, knocking out heating systems as temperatures dropped well below freezing. Ukraine’s defense minister, Oleksii Reznikov, told The Guardian that Russia was preparing a major new offensive, possibly in February.  The head of Ukraine’s armed forces, General Valery Zaluzhny, told The Economist that the offensive could come as early as January. “The Russians are preparing some 200,000 fresh troops,” Zaluzhny said. “I have no doubt they will have another go at Kyiv.” The U.S. plans to train one Ukrainian battalion per month — about 600 to 800 troops — at a base in Germany beginning early next year.  Get the latest updates here.

The city of Bakhmut and outlying areas in eastern Ukraine continue to come under attack from Russia.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

2022: The year of Ukraine

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24 was a seismic event. The war deeply unsettled security in Europe and around the world, with ricocheting effects on energy, food and the global economy. Nearly 10 months on, the loss of lives has been staggering on the battlefield and the suffering of millions of Ukrainian civilians is still growing.

For our last newsletter of the year, I reached out to Andrew Kramer, our Kyiv bureau chief, to get his insights on the state of the war and what we might expect in 2023.

Andrew, let’s talk about the battlefield. Some analysts expect a winter pause in the fighting. Are the front lines stabilizing?

This is a matter of debate. You’ll hear different commentary from Ukrainian officials and different signaling from the Russians as well.

Broadly, there’s a crescent-shaped front in southeastern Ukraine from the Dnipro River up to the Luhansk region. (The map below shows the front line as of Nov. 13 after Ukrainian troops reclaimed the city of Kherson.)

Sources: Institute for the Study of War with American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project. Note: Areas controlled by Russia and reclaimed by Ukraine are as of Nov. 13.

Along most of this area, which is fortified trench lines through fields, the Ukrainians are on the offensive: They are pushing forward or threatening to push forward. In one pocket in the east, around the city of Bakhmut, it’s the reverse: The Russians are pressing very hard to capture this city.

A Ukrainian military commander recently said that once the ground freezes, there will be more opportunities for Ukraine to press a counteroffensive. Ukrainian officials say there will be no pause, they will press this offensive right through the 90 or so days of freezing weather and it’s their intention to continue to attack and not allow Russia time to regroup and rearm. Some analysts say that may be the case, but the winter weather is harder in terms of logistics, and whatever might be said, there will be a slowdown, if not a pause.

Where do you see the Ukrainians advancing to next?

If there’s an offensive, one possibility would be an advance over the open steppe land to the south of the city of Zaporizhzhia toward the city of Melitopol. There are logistics routes going through Melitopol that are important to the Russians: roads, railroads. If the Ukrainians could seize the city, they could effectively cut the south in half and threaten attacks on supply lines all the way down to Crimea.

Another option would be a continuation of the September counteroffensive in the northeast, heading toward the ruins of the cities of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk, which were captured by the Russians in artillery battles over the summer. There’s very little left of these cities, but it would be symbolically important for Ukraine to recapture them.

Is there any indication that there’s diplomacy at work, that there will be a shift away from the battleground to negotiations on a peace deal?

The Ukrainians say they definitely don’t want a negotiated settlement that would leave their territory under Russian occupation. Zelensky sees this as the Ukrainian war that will end Ukrainian wars. He wants to liberate the entire territory rather than a half measure that would allow Russia to rearm and regroup and attack again. There have been some signs of pressure from the United States and the Europeans nations to open negotiations. This came up after a visit by Jake Sullivan to Kyiv. From the Russian side, they would like to negotiate a cease-fire to give their army time to reconstitute.

What has life in Kyiv been like lately with the blackouts, missiles strikes, air raid sirens and winter cold?

We just had an air raid siren today. It’s always a harrowing, concerning moment when there are reports that the air raid siren was not a false alarm and that there are missiles inbound for Kyiv, although they are usually aimed at energy infrastructure on the outskirts.

Every strike has chipped away at Ukraine’s capacity to produce power. Today, colleagues and I were working in the bureau and the electricity went out. So you light candles, turn on battery lights, power up the internet with a backup power source and continue working.

What’s the impact on Ukrainians? Is it wearing them down?

Bottled water handed out in Mykolaiv in November. Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

I don’t think so. I think that it is certainly making a lot of people very angry, but people are coping. I’ve been also in cities that have had infrastructure problems that lasted months, like Mykolaiv in the south, where water had been out for six or more months. The most common response if you ask people is that they feel very angry at Russia for causing these problems. There is that defiance. There’s also the sense of coping with the situation, sometimes with humor and with a little bit of innovation.

There are two wars really, now. There is the war on the front line and the war in the sky in the arena of long-range missiles and Russia’s strategy of destroying infrastructure to demoralize Ukrainian society. On the front lines in the battlefields, Ukraine is winning. In this other contest, it’s still an open question how much damage Russia can do over time.

What are some of the difficulties that you face in reporting about this war?

It’s an amazing and horrible story, all in one, because there are victims, there are heroes, there are incredibly sad stories but then hopeful ones. From my recent reporting experience when the Ukrainians went into Kherson, this was a largely bloodless reclaiming of the city, even though the battles leading up to it were quite brutal. People were celebrating and several weeks later there was disappointment because electricity hadn’t returned and conditions were still very harsh. Horrendous evidence of atrocities — torture and executions — began to emerge. The challenges are seeing through the fog of war along this long frontline and very complicated and intense combat between two industrialized countries.

How much longer do you think this war will last?

It’s hard to predict. It couldn’t continue at this intensity for many, many months more. There is an anticipation that it will go to the spring and a spring counteroffensive. But by the one-year anniversary, it seems all but certain that the war will be continuing.