Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, January 2, 2023 - Carole Landry (NYT)

 

Welcome back to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Russia attacked Kyiv with exploding drones in a follow-up strike after missiles and drones were fired on the city over the New Year’s holiday. The global food crisis is worsening and has become one of the furthest-reaching consequences of Russia’s war. Ukrainian officials are cracking down on a branch of the Russian Orthodox Church that they say has been infiltrated by priests, monks and nuns who have aided Russia in the war. Get the latest updates here.

An image from video footage showed the aftermath of a Ukrainian missile attack at a vocational school in the Donetsk region on New Year’s Day.Reuters

A lethal start to 2023

Ukrainian forces used U.S.-supplied guided rockets to hit a building housing dozens of Russian soldiers in the eastern Donetsk region on New Year’s Day, Russian and Ukrainian officials said today. It was one of the deadliest strikes on Russian forces since the beginning of the war 10 months ago.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that 63 service members had been killed in the strike in the city of Makiivka while Ukrainian officials said about 400 Russians had died. A spokesman for the Russian-installed government in the Donetsk region, Daniil Bezsonov, called the strike “a massive blow” and suggested that Russian forces were partly at fault.

“The enemy inflicted the most serious defeats in this war on us not because of their coolness and talent, but because of our mistakes,” he wrote in a post on Telegram.

A former Russian paramilitary commander, Igor Girkin, also known as Igor Strelkov, wrote on Telegram that “many hundreds” were dead and wounded and that many “remained under the rubble.”

The barracks set up in a vocational school were “almost completely destroyed” because “ammunition stored in the same building” detonated in the strike, Girkin said.

A report in Russian state media said that “active use of cellular phones by the newly arrived servicemen” in that unit had helped Ukrainian forces pinpoint their location and launch the assault using HIMARS rocket launchers.

The attack came as the war appeared set to grind on, with leaders of Ukraine and Russia vowing in their New Year’s messages to press on with their military campaigns and prevail. There appears to be little hope for peace negotiations in the near future.

President Vladimir Putin broke from practice and delivered his New Year’s address not from the Kremlin, but from an unspecified military base, flanked by soldiers. The Russian leader struck a defiant tone, asserting that “moral and historical righteousness is on our side.”

Russian soldiers, Putin said, were fighting to secure “peace and security guarantees for Russia,” while the West was using Ukraine “to weaken and split up Russia.”

In his own New Year’s address, President Volodymyr Zelensky recalled that 2022 had begun with fear over Russia’s invasion but ended with hopes for victory. “We have overcome doubts, despair and fear, ” he said.

“Let this year be the year of return,” Zelensky said of 2023. “The return of our people. Soldiers — to their families. Prisoners — to their homes. Immigrants — to their Ukraine. Return of our lands.”

Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities greeted the New Year with air-raid sirens and explosive thuds from Russian missile attacks.

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Russian paratroopers in Bucha on March 3, 2022.

A Times investigation into Bucha

An eight-month visual investigation by The Times has documented the killing of 36 Ukrainian civilians in Bucha during the Russian occupation, and identified the Russian unit behind one of the worst atrocities of the war.

The victims were killed along Yablunska Street in Bucha as Moscow’s forces sought to secure a route to Kyiv.

A team of Times reporters spent months in Bucha after Russian forces withdrew in late March, interviewing residents, collecting security-camera footage and obtaining records from government sources.

The Times concluded that the perpetrators of the killings along Yablunska Street were Russian paratroopers from the 234th Air Assault Regiment, based in the city of Pskov in western Russia and led by Lt. Col. Artyom Gorodilov.

One of the most chilling findings from the investigation came from a cellphone database that showed that several Russian soldiers killed Ukrainian civilians and then used their phones to call home to Russia.

Hours before Russian troops began withdrawing from Bucha, a lone Russian soldier, either drunk or high, went on a rampage, looking for wine. Through interviews with local officials, neighbors and family members, my colleagues Carlotta Gall and Oleksandr Chubko reconstructed a night of horror.

The soldier took Oleksandr Kryvenko, 75, at gunpoint and made him bang on the doors of private homes. They ended up at the large property of Oleksandr Rzhavsky, 63, a retired politician who apparently let the Russian and his hostage into his house. They sat at the dining table, and Rzhavsky gave them wine, according to neighbors.

Something snapped that evening, and the soldier, named Aleksei, opened fire on the two men at the table, killing Kryvenko in his chair with three bullets to the chest. Rzhavsky was shot in the head. The soldier then threw a grenade and injured his leg in the explosion.

The soldier’s unit fetched him in the morning and disposed of the bodies. But the grief of family members remains raw. Two women in the house at the time, Rzhavsky’s wife and his sister, hid and managed to escape injury.

What else we’re following

To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription.

In Ukraine

A Times investigation has identified and independently verified 339 Ukrainian cultural sites that sustained substantial damage in 2022.

Around the world

The Biden administration has embarked on a broad effort to halt Iran’s ability to provide drones to Russia. Some two dozen notable Russians have died in 2022 in mysterious ways, succumbing to what The Atlantic calls Sudden Russian Death Syndrome. From Opinion: Western diplomacy should seek not to avoid Putin’s red lines, but to change them, Nigel Gould-Davies writes.

We also recommend

In the geopolitical realignment that has followed Russia’s invasion, India is pursuing its interests with a new assertiveness.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Wednesday. — Carole

Russia-Ukraine War Briefing - Carole Landry (NYT)

 

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.  Carole Landry The New York Times, December 2, 2022

President Volodymyr Zelensky called for a ban on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate over its ties to Russia.  The E.U. agreed on a price cap of $60 per barrel for Russian oil. Officials from OPEC and Russia will meet on Sunday to consider production levels, a day before a near-total E.U. embargo on Russian oil comes into force.  President Biden said he was willing to talk with President Vladimir Putinif the Russian leader was ready to end the war. The Kremlin said in response that the fighting would continue, The Wall Street Journal reports. Get the latest updates here. Track the invasion with our maps.

Snow and cold in the Kyiv suburb of Irpin this week. David Guttenfelder for The New York Times

Humanitarian fears for winter

Millions of Ukrainians are bracing for a winter of worsening hardship. Russian airstrikes have knocked out power and other utilities, depriving households of electricity, heating and water. The attacks are raising fears about a collapse of Ukraine’s energy grid, which would push many vulnerable Ukrainians to the brink.

For more insight on the crisis, I spoke to Denise Brown, the U.N.’s resident coordinator in Ukraine, who is responsible for overseeing the international humanitarian response. Denise took up her position in August and has since been traveling around the country to see how people are coping. Our conversation has been condensed and edited.

Denise, let’s start with your recent travels. Where have you been, and what is the situation there?

In the past two weeks, I’ve been to Kherson twice, Mykolaiv and the Sumy region.

In Kherson, two weeks ago, I saw empty grocery stores, there was nothing, not a crumb. Supply chains were disrupted. Many older people were still there and were very happy to see us. You could sense their relief.

When I was back there this past Sunday, it was different. First of all, it was much colder. They are re-establishing the power lines, but because of the mines, progress is slow. Electricity is linked to water, which is linked to heating, so it was cold.

There were three grocery stores open. And the one that was empty two weeks ago was full, and there were 500 people waiting to get into the grocery store. I felt that after the hope and relief two weeks earlier, people were worried, extremely worried.

During a power blackout in Kyiv this week.David Guttenfelder for The New York Times

What is the biggest humanitarian concern heading into winter?

What I worry about is the damage to the energy infrastructure. We knew that winter was coming. In our humanitarian response plan, there’s a very specific component dedicated to winter. We planned for that. But it’s the damage to the energy infrastructure which is the new dimension, which is overwhelming and which gives all of us cause to worry. The humanitarian community has been reaching 13 million people since the war started. As the energy infrastructure damage grows, if, at some point it all disappears, what then? That’s the question.

The generators are super, super important. How many generators can we bring in to run the hospitals, to run the heating centers, to run everything? How many can everybody bring in? From our humanitarian community, we believe we can bring in 2,000. And the spare parts that have been requested that have to come from outside the country to keep the system up and running. It’s an absolute primary objective: To keep people safe, you need electricity, water and heating. That’s the biggest worry, everybody’s biggest worry.

Where are the most vulnerable?

I think right now it is the Kherson, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhia regions. The data that we have suggests that, which is why I spend most of my time going back and forth to these areas. When we go to these areas, we see a lot of elderly people, who didn’t have the means to move or didn’t want to leave their homes behind. We also worry about women alone with children. We worry a lot about people with disabilities who may be on their own. We tend to focus a lot on those groups, to provide them with support not just materially, but also psychologically.

People have been living in communities under temporary Russian control. On the faces of people, I see stress and anxiety. I’ve been greeted by screams and cries in some places.

Moving forward, there will be huge gaps if the energy structure collapses. The worst-case scenario from my point of view is people left on their own: the elderly, women with children, people with disabilities. We need to make sure we know where they are. If we don’t, that’s a big problem. The linkage to local organizations is key. Because they are present in those areas.

Loaves of bread to be distributed to civilians in Bakhmut yesterday.Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Are you seeing any signs of a possible exodus, a new wave of refugees?

We haven’t noticed any movement across the borders. I don’t think Ukrainians want to leave. I think they want to stay. They have been through a lot already. I think they want to see this through.

How long do you think the war will last? Are you planning for a long war?

I’m only thinking about humanitarian assistance and ensuring that we are meeting the needs created by this war.

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What else we’re following

In Ukraine

10,000 to 13,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed since Russia invaded, Mykhailo Podolyak, a presidential adviser, said.

Around the world

Ukrainian embassies in several countries have been targeted with “bloody packages” containing animal eyes, the foreign ministry said. In Spain, six letter bombs were mailed to several offices, including the Ukrainian embassy. Olaf Scholz, the German chancellor, told President Vladimir Putin during a phone call that his country would continue providing military support to Ukraine. German government officials set up a climate foundation as a conduit for funds to build Russia’s Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.  The U.S. is facing resistance from the United Arab Emirates in its push to seize the luxury superyacht Madame Gu, which is linked to the Russian steel magnate Andrei Skoch.  From Opinion: The United States is entering an era of intense “great power” rivalry that is without precedent in the living memory of most of its citizens, Stephen Wertheim writes.

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Take a look at how Ukrainian street artists are transforming ruins of warinto evocative works.

Russia-Ukraine War Briefing - Carole Landry (NYT)

 

November 28, 2022

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

The Kremlin played down speculation from pro-Russian military bloggers that it was preparing to withdraw from the Zaporizhzhia nuclear complex. E.U. diplomats met again to finalize a plan to cap the price of Russian oil,after failing to agree on Friday.

War crimes investigators exhumed the bodies of six men who had been killed, execution-style, from a communal grave in a village near Kherson.  Get the latest updates here. Track the invasion with our maps.

A military hospital in Bakhmut, in Ukraine’s Donbas region, on Friday. Tyler Hicks/The New York Times

Russia’s battle for Bakhmut

Russian forces are largely digging into defensive positions for the winter. But Russia is also mounting a desperate attempt to capture Bakhmut, a city that has become a destructive vortex for both countries’ militaries in Ukraine’s Donbas region.

Russian troops are trying to strangle the city from the east and south, according to Ukrainian soldiers. For months, both sides have thrown masses of troops and matériel into battle there, my colleagues Thomas Gibbons-Neff, Natalia Yermak and Tyler Hicks report.

At the city’s only military hospital, doctors report an almost unending stream of Ukrainian casualties. By midday Friday, they had counted 50 wounded. The day before, 240 people had come through the hospital’s doors.

The attacking Russians are suffering far worse, cut down by artillery and machine-gun fire, Ukrainian soldiers say.

Newly mobilized Russian soldiers “are just taking a rifle and walking right down, like in Soviet times,” a Ukrainian medic said. “He gets killed, and the next one comes up the same way.”

Ukrainian soldiers in Bakhmut on Friday.Tyler Hicks

Russia’s fighting force in Bakhmut is led by the Wagner Group, a private mercenary outfit with direct ties to the Kremlin. After Russia’s retreat from Kherson earlier this month,rank-and-file forces redeployed from the south are now supporting Wagner Group fighters, according to a U.S. defense official and Ukrainian soldiers.

Ukraine has sent floods of reinforcements, including Special Forces troops and territorial defense fighters, according to soldiers, local residents and a U.S. defense official. It has also deployed large quantities of Western-supplied shells and rockets.

“In the six months that I’ve been in Bakhmut, I have never seen our artillery working like this,” a Ukrainian soldier in the city said, referring to the volume of Ukrainian shells fired.

Analysts say that Russia’s military is unlikely to succeed in capturing Bakhmut, given the degradation of its forces and ammunition shortages after a series of setbacks. Still, Russia can turn the city into a resource-intensive black hole for Ukraine, taking troops away from other priorities, including future offensives.

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Ukrainian soldiers firing artillery at Russian positions near Bakhmut this month.Libkos/Associated Press

The Western weapons shortage

When the Soviet Union collapsed three decades ago, European nations drastically reduced their armories, thinking that a land war in Europe would never happen again. They were wrong.

The war is now chewing up those modest stockpiles of weapons as Europeans, along with the U.S., race to arm Ukraine.

Russia and Ukraine are also burning through weaponry and ammunition at their own staggering paces. In Afghanistan, NATO forces might have fired 300 artillery rounds a day and had no real worries about air defense. But Ukraine can fire thousands of rounds daily and remains desperate for air defense against Russian missiles and Iranian-made drones.

“A day in Ukraine is a month or more in Afghanistan,” one defense expert said.

Last summer in the Donbas region, the Ukrainians were firing 6,000 to 7,000 artillery rounds each day, a senior NATO official said. The Russians were firing 40,000 to 50,000 rounds per day. By comparison, the U.S. produces 15,000 rounds each month.

The West is scrambling to find increasingly scarce Soviet-era equipment and ammunition that Ukraine can use now and is sending strong signals to defense industries that longer-term contracts are in the offing. There are even discussions about NATO investing in old factories in the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Bulgaria to restart the manufacturing of Soviet-caliber 152-mm and 122-mm shells for Ukraine’s Soviet-era artillery.

In total, NATO countries have so far provided some $40 billion in weaponry to Ukraine, roughly the size of France’s annual defense budget.

The Russians, too, are having resupply problems of their own. Moscow is also trying to ramp up military production and is reportedly seeking to buy missiles from North Korea and more cheap drones from Iran.

More about weapons

High-tech cannons supplied by the U.S. and its allies are burning out after months of overuse, or being damaged in combat. Repair work is being done at a facility in Poland set up by the Pentagon’s European Command.

The Pentagon is considering a Boeing proposal to supply Ukraine with cheap, small precision bombs fitted onto rockets, allowing Kyiv to strike far behind Russian lines, Reuters reported.

What else we’re following

To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription.

In Ukraine

Russia is planning to launch another wave of missiles targeting energy infrastructure this week, the Ukrainian military said.  Ben Hodges, a former commanding general of the U.S. Army in Europe, told The Economist Asks podcast that Ukraine has achieved “an irreversible momentum” in the war and could declare victory by the summer.  Alyona Synenko wrote about her wedding in Odesa amid blackouts and bombs.

Around the world

The foreign minister of Belarus, who led a failed attempt to thaw relations between his country and the West, died suddenly over the weekend. Thousands of Russians are crossing the U.S. southern border, but contrary to their expectations of asylum, many of them are being put into immigration detention centers. European officials are accusing the U.S. of profiting from the war by selling natural gas and weapons at inflated prices, Politico reports. A Russian disinformation campaign alleging that the U.S. supported secret biological weapons labs in Ukraine is likely to undermine negotiations at a global conference, Bloomberg reports.  Russia has postponed a meeting with U.S. officials to discuss the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the two countries.  President Volodymyr Zelensky will join the DealBook Summit via videolink on Wednesday.  From Opinion: Lulu Garcia-Navarro shares suggestions for holiday giving to global organizations helping people in war zones.

We also recommend

There is no large Ukrainian diaspora in Maine, but Ukrainian flags are on display in a show of solidarity.  From exile in Lithuania, the supporters of the jailed Russian opposition leader Aleksei Navalny are spearheading antiwar efforts in a way that is unthinkable at home.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Wednesday. — Carole

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