The New York Times Ukraine-War Briefing - November 21, 2022

 

November 21, 2022

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Ukraine marked the nine-year anniversary of the Maidan protests, which eventually led to the country’s confrontation with Russia.  Poland’s defense minister said that he would propose deploying German-supplied air defense systems near the Ukrainian border, where Russia’s bombardment has raised fears of spillover. At least a dozen shells exploded near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant yesterday. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency is calling for establishing a protected area around the facility. Get the latest updates here. Track the invasion with our maps.

Grim videos and a troubling question

A series of videos that surfaced on social media last week is raising questions over whether Ukrainian forces committed war crimes when they captured a group of Russian soldiers this month in the Luhansk region.

The soldiers, most of whom are seen lying on the ground, appear to have been shot dead at close range after one of their fellow fighters opened fire on Ukrainian soldiers standing nearby.

My colleagues from the Visual Investigations team verified the authenticity of several videos that were recorded during the Ukrainian fight to recapture the village of Makiivka in mid-November. They were filmed by two sources: an unnamed Ukrainian soldier who was capturing video on his phone, and drone videos most likely shot by Ukrainian forces surveilling the offensive.

The videos do not show how or why the Russian soldiers were killed. Russia’s foreign ministry has accused Ukraine’s forces of “mercilessly shooting unarmed Russian POWs.” Ukraine’s commissioner for human rights, Dmytro Lubinets, said that Russian soldiers had opened fire during the act of surrendering.

One of the videos shows at least four Ukrainian soldiers approaching a shed at a farmhouse where a group of Russian soldiers were hiding. The video cuts off, and when it restarts, six Russian soldiers are lying facedown on the ground beside one another. The video shows four other Russian soldiers slowly exiting the shed, one after the other, some with their arms raised. They join the other soldiers on the ground.

The capture of these soldiers is initially orderly, until an 11th Russian soldier emerges and opens fire, aiming at one of the Ukrainian soldiers. A frame-by-frame analysis of what happened next shows a Ukrainian soldier raising his rifle and then aiming at the Russian soldier.

The video ends and it’s unclear what happens next. But a subsequent aerial video of the location shows the bloody aftermath. The Russian soldiers are lying motionless, apparently dead. Blood is pooling around them, and some appear to be bleeding from the upper body or head. The Russian soldier who fired at the Ukrainians appears to have been killed on the spot, and he is lying in the position from where he opened fire.

Iva Vukusic, a war crimes prosecution expert at Utrecht University, said that it was difficult to determine whether a war crime had been committed, based on the video evidence alone. One key variable is the amount of time between the final two videos.

“Was it in one or two bursts of fire at the moment of, or immediately after, the last Russian comes out and shoots at the Ukrainians?” Vukusic said. “Or was it after the immediate threat had been neutralized, as an act of revenge? Then this is more clearly a war crime.”

The Russian gunman’s actions are critical, Vukusic said. “It may very well be that, had this guy not fired, that they all would have been captured as POWs and survived,” she added.

Olha Stefanishyna, Ukraine’s deputy prime minister overseeing European integration, said yesterday that her government would investigate, The Wall Street Journal reported.

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A night operation targeting Russian forces behind the front line.Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

Surveillance and sabotage

A volunteer Ukrainian special forces team called the Bratstvo battalion has undertaken some of the war’s most difficult missions along the front lines. In the south, they use boats to infiltrate the Russian-controlled side of the Dnipro River.

The Bratstvo fighters have been conducting secret raids and other special operations for months, as part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. The group gave access to The New York Times to report on two recent operations, which took place before the recapture of Kherson. One of the missions had to be aborted.

In the second, the fighters crossed the Dnipro at night to lay mines on a road used by Russian soldiers and attack a mortar position. They were back before dawn.

Preparing to go on a night operation.Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

“We laid the mines and then came back without any noise, and they did not see us,” one 18-year-old soldier said, having observed Russian soldiers from a distance of 100 yards or more. “Some were walking, some were standing, some were just watching their phones,” he said.

But the unit did not push further to attack the mortar positions. The lay of the land was not good, the moonlight too bright and the group too large, said Vita, the only female soldier on the team. “Lots of boots, lots of noise,” she said. “And we froze a lot.”

What else we’re following

To provide comprehensive coverage of the war, we often link to outside sources. Some of these require a subscription.

In Ukraine

At least 437 children have been killed in the nine months of the war, the Ukrainian prosecutor general said. During his first visit to Kyiv since taking office, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain promised more air-defense weapons for Ukraine. The government is preparing to evacuate residents from Kherson and Mykolaiv, where fighting has damaged the infrastructure, as winter sets in. Train service between Kyiv and Kherson was restored this weekend.  The photographer Brendan Hoffman captured images from a mine-clearing team at work in a pine forest northwest of Kyiv.  The Ukrainian tennis player Sergiy Stakhovsky, who is now a soldier, said he finds the silence from most Russian players shameful.

Around the world

The U.S. is sending officials to push Russia’s trading partners to enforce sanctions, The Wall Street Journal reported.  The U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, warned that a failure to help Ukraine could lead to a world of “tyranny and turmoil.” From Opinion: Several Russian opposition groups met outside Warsaw this month to imagine Russia without Vladimir Putin.

Thanks for reading. I’ll be back Wednesday. — Carole

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Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine: NYTimes briefing, November 4, 2022

The New York Times 

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team November 4, 2022

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

The U.S. is setting up a new command to train and equip the Ukrainian military and committing to an additional $400 million in military aid. The Group of 7 nations pledged to help “repair, restore and defend” Ukraine’s energy and water infrastructure. About 4.5 million Ukrainian households are without power, including nearly half a million in Kyiv.  China called on the world to oppose the threat or use of nuclear weaponsin Ukraine. Get the latest updates here. Track the invasion with our maps.

Russian recruits attended a ceremony in the Rostov region on Monday before leaving for Ukraine. Sergey Pivovarov/Reuters

Russian conscripts in combat

Russia is sending newly drafted troops to the front line in eastern Ukraine to try to push back Ukrainian forces, but the influx has not resulted in any Russian gains on the ground, according to military analysts.

President Vladimir Putin used a National Unity Day appearance today to announce that 318,000 soldiers had been recruited to join the Russian Army, with 49,000 of those already in combat.

The fighting in the eastern Donbas region has been particularly intense. Gen. Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, the commander of the Ukrainian military, said in a statement posted on Telegram yesterday that Russian forces were staging up to 80 assaults per day.

The scale of Russian losses in these battles is uncertain, but analysts say the number of casualties is high. The Institute for the Study of War, a research group based in Washington, said ill-prepared conscripts were being “impaled” during offensives in Donetsk. The Ukrainian military said today that more than 800 Russian soldiers had been wounded or killed over 24 hours.

In two counter-offensives in the northeast and the south, the Ukrainian military has reported step-by-step gains in cutting supply lines and damaging Russian ammunition and fuel depots.

In the south, Ukrainian troops are advancing toward Kherson, which fell to the Russians in the early weeks of the war. The Russian-appointed administration in the city has relocated to a site 50 miles away, but Russian troops have not decamped, according to residents and Ukrainian officials.

Ukrainian military intelligence says Russia has deployed about 40,000 soldiers to the area, including some elite troops such as airborne forces, to stop Ukrainian forces from reclaiming Kherson.

The remaining residents in Kherson are stocking up on food and fuel to survive.

Guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia: briefing do NYT

O briefing diário do New York Times sobre a guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia:

November 2, 2022

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Russia rejoined the deal allowing grain exports from Ukraine, just days after pulling out. The U.S. accused North Korea of covertly shipping artillery shells to Russia. Russia is drastically cutting gas deliveries to Moldova, in an apparent bid to punish the country for supporting Ukraine. American-made advanced air defense systems, known as NASAMS, will arrive in Ukraine in the coming days. The systems have radar-guided missiles that can take down fighter jets, combat drones and cruise missiles. Get the latest updates here. Track the invasion with our maps.

Ukrainian troops removing the body of a Russian soldier in Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, in the Kharkiv region.Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

Russian generals discussed tactical nukes

As Russian forces lost ground in recent weeks, senior Russian military leaders had conversations about when and how Moscow might use a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, according to U.S. officials.

President Vladimir Putin was not a part of the conversations, according to intelligence reports that were circulated inside the U.S. government in mid-October, my colleagues Helene Cooper, Julian Barnes and Eric Schmitt report. But the discussions did set off alarm bells.

The discussions showed the frustration of Russian generals about their failures on the ground, and added context to Putin’s veiled threats to use nuclear weapons.

The new intelligence surfaced when Russia began pushing the unsubstantiated claim that Ukraine was planning to use a dirty bomb. U.S. officials expressed concern that Russia was laying the groundwork for a false flag operation, in which the detonation of a dirty bomb would be the pretext for a Russian response using a tactical nuclear weapon.

Late last month, the U.S. defense secretary, Lloyd Austin, and the Russian defense minister, Sergei Shoigu, discussed the claims during two phone calls. Shoigu also spoke with his British, French and Turkish counterparts.

Biden administration officials and U.S. allies say the phone calls helped ease some of the nuclear tensions. Last week, Putin denied in a speech that Moscow was preparing to use a nuclear weapon, which further lowered the temperature, according to some of the officials.

“We see no need for that,” Putin said in his speech. “There is no point in that, neither political nor military.”

No tactical nuclear weapon has ever been used in combat. Such a weapon could be deployed in any number of ways, including by missile or artillery shell.

Russia conducted an annual military exercise last week testing nuclear-capable missiles, but U.S. officials say they have seen no evidence that the Russians are moving nuclear weapons into place or taking other tactical measures. But a top Kyiv official said that more than 400 fallout shelters were being readied in the capital to prepare for a possible nuclear attack.

The New York Times update on Russia's aggression war on Ukraine

The New York Times update on Russia's aggression war on Ukraine

October 31, 2022 

By Carole Landry Editor/Writer, Briefings Team

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

Twelve ships carrying grain set sail from Ukraine’s ports, even after Russia withdrew from a deal allowing the shipments. Debris from a Russian missile shot down by Ukraine landed in a border village in Moldova. Russia accused Ukraine of carrying out a drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet in Crimea on Saturday. Get the latest updates here. Track the invasion with our maps. These photos chronicle the ordeal of the war.

Drinking water was available at Shevchenko Park in Kyiv today. Brendan Hoffman for The New York Times

No water, no power

Most of Kyiv was without water today after Russia targeted critical civilian infrastructure with dozens of cruise missiles. Power was also knocked out in the capital and in other Ukrainian cities, officials said.

Residents of Kyiv were directed to use wells and emergency water distribution sites, where they lined up with plastic jugs to carry water home. By the evening, water service had been restored to half of those affected.

Vitali Klitschko, the mayor of Kyiv, said an energy facility that provides power to many parts of the city had been damaged. Traffic lights across the capital were out in the morning, and cellular service was spotty.

Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said in a Telegram post that 18 targets had been hit in 10 Ukrainian regions, most of which were part of the electricity grid. Russia’s Ministry of Defense said in a statement that it had taken aim at “the military control and energy systems of Ukraine.” Ukraine’s Air Force said it had shot down 44 out of the more than 50 Russian missiles.

It was the third time this month that Ukrainians went back to work on Monday under a barrage of missiles. Facing setbacks on the battlefield, Russia is seeking to inflict pain on civilians by making Ukraine’s towns and cities unlivable as the war heads into winter.

“Russian strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure are terrorism and an attempt to freeze millions of civilians,” Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s Interior Ministry, tweeted. “They want to leave people with no light, water and sewage — in winter, in the cold.”

Among those lined up for water in Kyiv was Maksym Khaurat, 31. He had already been enduring rolling blackouts, a lack of heat in his apartment and a failing internet connection, but the loss of water was different.

Like many other residents, he returned to Kyiv this summer after taking refuge farther to the west earlier in the war. The capital had been enjoying a return to something like normalcy, in stark contrast to the disruptions of the last few weeks.

“I am angry,” Khaurat said. “Angry at that man in Russia. I hate him.”

But, he added, “however bad this winter may be, it will be better than living under Russia.”

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Ukrainian forces firing a Grad rocket launcher today just outside Mykolaiv, in southern Ukraine.Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

Ukraine gains the upper hand

For most of the war, Russia dominated when it came to artillery, able to lob munitions at Ukrainian cities, towns and military targets from positions well beyond the reach of Ukrainian weapons.

But in recent months, the tide has turned in the country’s south, our Kyiv bureau chief, Andrew Kramer, reports.

Ukraine now has an edge in both range and in precision-guided rockets and artillery shells, commanders and military analysts say. Its soldiers are also taking out Russian armored vehicles with drones and other weapons provided by the U.S. and its allies.

The contrast with the battlefield over the summer could not be starker. Back then, in the Donetsk region, Russia fired roughly 10 artillery rounds for every shell from Ukrainian batteries. In Kherson now, Ukrainian commanders say the sides are firing about equal numbers of shells, but Ukraine’s strikes are longer in range and more precise because of the satellite-guided rockets and artillery rounds provided by the West.

This firepower has tipped the balance in the south, raising expectations that a long-anticipated assault on the city of Kherson is drawing near. The question remains just how long the Russian forces can, or will, hold out in Kherson.