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Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.

quinta-feira, 22 de junho de 2023

The West deserves much of the blame for Putin’s rise to unchecked power - Vladimir Kara-Murza (The Washington Post)

 Russia is 'very, very afraid of…’: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told this week's Ukraine Recovery Conference that “democracy paves the way for the rule of law”. He said resources and land were not the only reasons Russia invaded. The architects of the Western policy of embracing Putin ignored two fundamental warnings from history: that internal repression in Russia always translates into external aggression and that appeasing an aggressor always leads to war, Vladimir Kara-Murza writes for The Post. 

(Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)
Who is Vladimir Kara-Murza?
Vladimir Kara-Murza, a Global Opinions contributor to The Post, is a Russian politician, author and historian. He holds Russian and British passports and settled his family in the United States. He has been an outspoken critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Opinion 


The West deserves much of the blame for Putin’s rise to unchecked power

The Washington Post, June 22, 2023, 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/06/21/vladimir-kara-murza-west-putin-accountable-ukraine-war/


PRETRIAL DETENTION CENTER NO. 5, MOSCOW — Dictatorial regimes can come to power in different ways. Sometimes, it is through years of civil war, as with the Bolsheviks in Russia after 1917. Sometimes, it is through democratic procedures, as in 1930s Germany. Or, as in Chile in 1973, it can happen as the result of a military coup.

Vladimir Putin achieved power in 1999 by a backroom deal in the top ranks of President Boris Yeltsin’s administration. But the new Kremlin leader needed time to transform Russia’s imperfect democracy into the seamless authoritarian system it is today. No one can pinpoint the precise moment Russia ceased to be democratic. But the year can be named with certainty.

It was 2003 — and this week marks exactly 20 years since the first turning point in that transformation. On June 22 of that year, Putin’s press ministry turned off the broadcasting signal of TVS, Russia’s last independent television network. In a characteristic display of Soviet-style hypocrisy, the official reason it cited was “viewers’ interests.” This was the final step in Putin’s campaign against independent television, which he had launched days after his inauguration with a security raid on the offices of Russia’s largest private media holding. Within three years, all major independent broadcasters — NTVTV-6 and finally TVS — fell silent, giving the Kremlin a complete monopoly on the airwaves. Controlling public sources of information is a prerequisite to any dictatorship.

Two other milestones came later that year. In October 2003, Putin’s security services arrested Russia’s richest man, oil tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky. The official charge was tax evasion. But the real reason was Khodorkovsky’s funding of civil society groups and opposition parties and his public confrontation with Putin over government corruption. This was a clear signal from the Kremlin to all of Russia’s business community: Stay loyal or stay out. Finally, in December came Russia’s parliamentary election that — for the first time since the end of Soviet rule — was assessed by international observers as unfair. It resulted in the ejection of pro-democracy parties from the Duma. With the Russian parliament becoming — in the unforgettable words of its speaker — “not a place for discussion,” Putin’s authoritarian transformation was complete.
For those of us who had been involved in the democratic opposition to Putin from the very start of his rule, it was painful to watch how calmly most of Russian society seemed to accept the dismantling of the nascent freedoms of the 1990s. There were street protests against the state takeover of NTV — but nowhere near the scale merited by the situation. There were principled voices in the Russian parliament against Putin’s authoritarian moves — such as Boris Nemtsov — but they were not matched by a mass popular movement. As a candidate for the Duma in the critical 2003 election, I remember well how indifferent most voters even in my Moscow district were to the country’s authoritarian turn. After the economic hardships that accompanied the collapse of the Soviet system in the 1990s, many people were willing to accept Putin’s unspoken social contract: higher living standards (bankrolled by rising oil prices) in return for giving up political freedoms.
So when politicians and opinion-makers in the West today speak of Russian society’s responsibility for allowing Putin’s rise to unchecked power (and ultimately leading us to the current war), they have a point — but only partly. Why? Because a very large part of that responsibility lies with the West itself.

When Putin came to power, Russia was fully integrated into the international rules-based system. It belonged to the Group of Eight industrialized democracies; it was a member of the Council of Europe, which serves to safeguard human rights on the continent; it was (and still is) a participating state in the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, whose statutes explicitly assert that matters relating to democracy, human rights and the rule of law are of legitimate concern to all member states. So when Putin launched ever more active efforts to dismantle Russia’s democratic institutions, we in the Russian opposition naively thought the free world would express criticism.

Instead, American presidents of both parties applauded Putin’s rise. George W. Bush called him “a new style of leader, a reformer … who is going to make a huge difference in making the world more peaceful.” Barack Obama lauded his “extraordinary work … on behalf of the Russian people.” One German chancellor even went to work for one of Russia’s biggest state-controlled companies.

But perhaps the most grotesque gesture came from the British government, which welcomed Putin for a lavish state visit — complete with a horse-drawn carriage ride with the queen and billions of dollars in lucrative contracts — literally two days after he pulled the plug on TVS in June 2003. I covered that visit as a journalist, and I will never forget the surreal spectacle of Britain’s political and financial elite hosting the emerging dictator at an ornate banquet at the London Guildhall.

The immorality and cynicism of this realpolitik aside, the architects of the Western policy of embracing Putin ignored two fundamental warnings from history: that internal repression in Russia always translates into external aggression and that appeasing an aggressor always leads to war. Again, the free world has learned this the hard way. After he got away with so much else over the years, both at home and abroad, it is not surprising that Putin thought he could get away with occupying Ukraine, too.

Incredibly, there are still voices in the West who are suggesting that he should. Day after day, Russian state television (which I am forced to watch in my prison cell) relays statements by Kremlin-friendly politicians and talking heads in Western Europe and the United States calling for some kind of an “understanding” with Putin over Ukraine. I can think of no better recipe for disaster — and for a new, even larger war a couple of years down the road — than handing the aggressor yet another cave-in.

There is only one outcome of this conflict that would be in the interests of the free world, of Ukraine and, ultimately, of the Russian people: resounding defeat for Putin, to be followed by political change in Russia and a Marshall Plan-type international assistance program both to rebuild Ukraine and to help post-Putin Russia build a functioning democracy so that it never again becomes a threat to its own people or its neighbors. That is the only way to make sure Europe can finally become whole, free and at peace — and stay that way.

Both Russian society and the West are responsible for letting Putin come as far as he did. Both also share the responsibility to get it right this time.


Vladimir Kara-Murza is a Russian opposition politician and Post contributor who has been imprisoned in Moscow since April for speaking out against the war on Ukraine. He has been designated by Amnesty International as a prisoner of conscience. Twitter

Prigozhin Calls for the Killing of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu: The End of Wagner? - Jakub Ferencik (Medium)

 O que vai acontecer? Putin ainda não sabe...

Prigozhin Calls for the Killing of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu — The End of Wagner?

Jakub Ferencik
Medium, 16/06/2023

Recently, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu expressed that the private military group, Wagner, should be incorporated into the Russian military.

It is no secret that the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Shoigu have not been on similar terms in the past.

Prigozhin has even called for the capital punishment of Shoigu by a firing squad because of his mishandling of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

So, it’s not surprising that Shoigu wants to terminate Wagner.

Let me explain.

Photo by Pavel Neznanov on Unsplash

Wagner has served an important purpose for the Russians since the start of the full-scale invasion, but even prior to 2022.

The Wagner Group serves as a private military contractor, allowing Russia to engage in conflicts indirectly without the direct involvement of the Russian military.

They have been strategically positioned in the Middle East, Africa, and even as far as Latin America. Thus far, Wagner has been active across four continents.

Concerningly, they have been known for being particularly brutal, utilizing torture to frighten their enemies.

Most recently, their skills are utilized in Ukraine.

Pros and Cons — Why Wagner is Causing Headaches for Putin

The anonymity of Wagner serves as both a positive and a negative.

The “little green men” can operate with little international backlash, but that also means that they cannot really be held accountable by Russia law when they are disobeying direct orders from the Kremlin.

Prigozhin outlined this well recently in one of his posts on Telegram:

“The orders and decrees issued by (Defense Minister Sergei) Shoigu apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel. PMC ‘Wagner’ will not sign any contracts with Shoigu.”

However, Prigozhin assured his followers that Wagner would “absolutely” pursue the “interests of the Russian Federation and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.”

Of course, that doesn’t mean that Prigozhin will not criticize the Russian Defense Minister, or Putin himself.

He does so voraciously.

You may ask, but where does Prigozhin get the confidence to criticize Putin?

Well, for those who might not be aware, Prigozhin has been very successful on the battlefield.

Photo by Dominik Sostmann on Unsplash

On Prigozhin’s Influence

We see this particularly in Bakhmut, which he managed to win for the Russians without the ammunition needed (at least, according to his words).

In fact, this is where much of Prigozhin’s problems with Shoigu stem from.

His success on the battlefield has won him some popularity in Russia, especially among Telegram users, the most popular social media application in Russia.

To add to this, Prigozhin is typically depicted on the frontlines, among his troops, in dangerous zones. The Russian military, in Prigozhin’s words, “sit like fat cats” in “luxury offices,” while his fighters are “dying.”

The final straw was when in a five-hour interview, Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu should be killed for his handling of the invasion.

In response, Russia announced that by July 1st, all private military groups will be incorporated into the Russian military.

Prigozhin refuses to do so because Shoigu “cannot manage military formations.”

And that’s a problem.

Western estimates suggest that Wagner commands about 50,000 troops in Ukraine and about 5,000 troops both in Africa and the Middle East. Presently, Russia commands about 190,000 troops in Ukraine.

So, Wagner comprises about 20 percent of Russian forces in Ukraine. That’s not an amount Putin can afford to lose.

We’ll have to wait and see how this develops. But the cards are stacked up against Putin and his Defense Minister.

Internal dissent continues to brew.

And I’m here for it.


Aprovado reconhecimento do Holodomor como genocídio contra ucranianos - Agência Senado

Um reconhecimento tardio, mas bem vindo, no quadro da guerra de agressão da Rússia contra a Ucrânia. 

Aprovado reconhecimento do Holodomor como genocídio contra ucranianos

Da Agência Senado | 26/04/2022, 22h17

Depois da aprovação em Plenário, nesta terça-feira (26), de um projeto que reconhece oficialmente como genocídio o extermínio de ucranianos por meio da fome, nos anos de 1930, o presidente do Senado, Rodrigo Pacheco, manifestou seurepúdio à invasão da Ucrânia pela Rússia. Para ele, trata-se de uma situação triste para o mundo inteiro e que deve ser condenada sem omissão nem ambiguidade.

— Desde o primeiro momento, condenamos essa invasão, condenamos essa guerra e a repudiamos fortemente, e nos solidarizamos com o povo ucraniano. Nos limites de nossas possibilidades, enquanto Senado Federal e Congresso Nacional, estaremos do lado do povo ucraniano — definiu.

O Projeto de Lei (PL)  423/2022, que foi aprovado em votação simbólica e segue para análise da Câmara, também institui o quarto sábado de novembro como Dia de Memória às Vítimas do Holodomor.

Holodomor é o nome pelo qual ficou conhecido o período de fome que resultou na morte de milhões de camponeses, na grande maioria ucranianos, nos anos de 1930. O termo significa “matar pela fome”. Segundo estimativas, o número de vítimas pode ter chegado a 3,5 milhões.

O autor da proposição, senador Alvaro Dias (Podemos-PR), aponta que o então governo soviético adotou uma política de coletivização de terras e requisição compulsória de grãos e cereais. À época, a Ucrânia foi obrigada a contribuir desproporcionalmente com sua produção, o que levou à desorganização do ciclo produtivo, causando grave fome e busca pelo êxodo.

“Aqueles que tentavam manter os alimentos eram punidos, mortos ou levados a campos de trabalhos forçados. Campanhas de confisco em grande escala, restrições de ajuda externa e proibição de colher produtos deixados para apodrecer nos campos aumentaram ainda mais a mortalidade”, relata o senador.

Comunidade no Brasil

Ao menos 16 países já reconheceram o Holodomor como um genocídio. Entre as nações que já oficializaram a data, estão Estados Unidos, Portugal, México, Canadá e Austrália. O relator do projeto, senador Oriovisto Guimarães (Podemos-PR), afirmou que o Brasil deve esse gesto à comunidade ucraniana que vive no país. Cerca de 500 mil a 600 mil pessoas migraram da Ucrânia para o Brasil, que tem hoje a maior comunidade ucraniana na América Latina. Oriovisto fez ajustes de redação no texto.

O Holodomor foi um dos momentos marcante do século 20, e reconhecer sua existência e seu caráter equivalente a genocídio é imperioso para trazer à tona a história, promover o respeito pelos direitos humanos e ajudar a evitar catástrofes similares no futuro”, defendeu.

Na discussão do projeto, Alvaro Dias também citou os recentes ataques da Rússia, que definiu como “golpes contra o coração de uma nação”. O senador lembrou que, em 2008, visitou a Ucrânia, onde presenciou ato de homenagem póstuma às vítimas do Holodomor. Segundo ele, 45 países estavam presentes, mas o governo brasileiro ainda não se fazia representar. Para Alvaro, a ocasião mostrou que era necessária uma posição oficial do país em relação ao tema.

— Nós temos que também seguir este mesmo caminho: o do reconhecimento desse genocídio como um alerta à humanidade, especialmente no momento em que a violência é estampada diariamente com imagens que nos aterrorizam nas telas da TV, retratando mortes, desespero e, evidentemente, o sofrimento de uma população inteira. E, no Brasil, nós temos que dar resposta a essa exigência da civilidade — resumiu.

O senador Flávio Arns (Podemos-PR) considera que a oficialização da lembrança do Holodomor servirá como gesto de solidariedade a um povo que hoje vive uma “agressão brutal”.

— Nunca mais isso pode acontecer, como a gente tem que lembrar de outros eventos de natureza parecida, como a ditadura militar, como o nazismo, o fascismo e tantas iniciativas, tantas coisas que aconteceram, abomináveis, e que têm que ser lembradas para nunca mais acontecerem.

Agência Senado (Reprodução autorizada mediante citação da Agência Senado)

Fonte: Agência Senado