O que vai acontecer? Putin ainda não sabe...
Prigozhin Calls for the Killing of Russian Defense Minister Shoigu — The End of Wagner?
Recently, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu expressed that the private military group, Wagner, should be incorporated into the Russian military.
It is no secret that the leader of Wagner, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and Shoigu have not been on similar terms in the past.
Prigozhin has even called for the capital punishment of Shoigu by a firing squad because of his mishandling of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
So, it’s not surprising that Shoigu wants to terminate Wagner.
Let me explain.
Wagner has served an important purpose for the Russians since the start of the full-scale invasion, but even prior to 2022.
The Wagner Group serves as a private military contractor, allowing Russia to engage in conflicts indirectly without the direct involvement of the Russian military.
They have been strategically positioned in the Middle East, Africa, and even as far as Latin America. Thus far, Wagner has been active across four continents.
Concerningly, they have been known for being particularly brutal, utilizing torture to frighten their enemies.
Most recently, their skills are utilized in Ukraine.
Pros and Cons — Why Wagner is Causing Headaches for Putin
The anonymity of Wagner serves as both a positive and a negative.
The “little green men” can operate with little international backlash, but that also means that they cannot really be held accountable by Russia law when they are disobeying direct orders from the Kremlin.
Prigozhin outlined this well recently in one of his posts on Telegram:
“The orders and decrees issued by (Defense Minister Sergei) Shoigu apply to employees of the Ministry of Defense and military personnel. PMC ‘Wagner’ will not sign any contracts with Shoigu.”
However, Prigozhin assured his followers that Wagner would “absolutely” pursue the “interests of the Russian Federation and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.”
Of course, that doesn’t mean that Prigozhin will not criticize the Russian Defense Minister, or Putin himself.
He does so voraciously.
You may ask, but where does Prigozhin get the confidence to criticize Putin?
Well, for those who might not be aware, Prigozhin has been very successful on the battlefield.
On Prigozhin’s Influence
We see this particularly in Bakhmut, which he managed to win for the Russians without the ammunition needed (at least, according to his words).
In fact, this is where much of Prigozhin’s problems with Shoigu stem from.
His success on the battlefield has won him some popularity in Russia, especially among Telegram users, the most popular social media application in Russia.
To add to this, Prigozhin is typically depicted on the frontlines, among his troops, in dangerous zones. The Russian military, in Prigozhin’s words, “sit like fat cats” in “luxury offices,” while his fighters are “dying.”
The final straw was when in a five-hour interview, Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu should be killed for his handling of the invasion.
In response, Russia announced that by July 1st, all private military groups will be incorporated into the Russian military.
Prigozhin refuses to do so because Shoigu “cannot manage military formations.”
And that’s a problem.
Western estimates suggest that Wagner commands about 50,000 troops in Ukraine and about 5,000 troops both in Africa and the Middle East. Presently, Russia commands about 190,000 troops in Ukraine.
So, Wagner comprises about 20 percent of Russian forces in Ukraine. That’s not an amount Putin can afford to lose.
We’ll have to wait and see how this develops. But the cards are stacked up against Putin and his Defense Minister.
Internal dissent continues to brew.
And I’m here for it.
