Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.
Como diria o papa Francisco, uma proclamação at urbe et orbi, ou, modernamente, a todos, a todas, e, sendo redundante, a todes.
A todos os meus seguidores nesta página improvisada – PauloAlmeidaDiplomata – e que não deveria existir.
Ela foi criada depois de seis meses tentando ressucitar, sem sucesso, minha página original, esta aqui: https://www.facebook.com/paulobooks.
Ela tinha ficado inacessível, por motivos incertos e não sabidos – provavelmente minha própria incompetência - mas acabou aparecendo, depois que eu iinaugurei esta aqui:
https://www.facebook.com/PauloAlmeidaDiplomata
Como aparentemente tudo segue normal com a original, e para evitar acusações de duplicação ou duplipensar, vou liquidar, eliminar, apagar esta segunda, de vida breve, mas ao que parece atraente, pois ccapturou um público razoável.
Com mil desculpas a todos, vou terminar com esta em breve.
Pessoas cometem erros, países cometem erros: uma análise histórica
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, diplomata, professor.
Sobre como se aprende melhor com erros do que com acertos, a partir de exemplos nacionais.
Nenhuma trajetória, individual ou coletiva, é isenta de desvios, de percalços, de erros ou de desastres. Erros individuais são, aparentemente, mais fáceis de corrigir, dado que eles podem ser objeto de recriminações, de alertas, de recomendações de terceiros, geralmente os mais próximos, ou seja, familiares ou amigos, o que pode (nem sempre o faz) induzir o sujeito equivocado – por ignorância, ingenuidade, ambição ou alienação temporária – a tentar retificar suas ações e retomar um caminho, senão virtuoso, pelo menos mais adequado às circunstâncias e limitações da vida prática.
(...)
Brasil e Argentina talvez estejam ainda sob o domínio excessivo dos “instintos primitivos” de seus animais políticos. Provavelmente já é mais do que tempo de se livrar das oligarquias regressivas e abrir espaços para a energia dos empreendedores individuais. O senso comum considera que a China é uma ditadura comunista, o que é apenas meia verdade. Se consultarmos os indicadores setoriais de liberdade econômica, constataríamos que a China é mais livre, economicamente, do que Brasil, Argentina e a maioria dos países.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brasília, 4751, 6 outubro 2024, 8 p.
Disponível na plataforma Academia.edu; link:
https://www.academia.edu/124475398/4751_Pessoas_cometem_erros_paises_cometem_erros_uma_analise_historica_2024_
"A Arte da Guerra" de Sun Tzu, é um dos livros mais influentes de estratégia já escritos. Apesar de ter sido criado para o campo de batalha, suas lições se aplicam em todas as áreas da vida: negócios, liderança, e até no desenvolvimento pessoal.
Vamos mergulhar nas 10 principais lições desta obra-prima atemporal.
1️⃣ A Preparação é Tudo: "Toda guerra é ganha antes de ser travada".
A primeira lição fundamental de Sun Tzu é a importância da preparação estratégica. Grandes vitórias começam muito antes de qualquer ação. Seja em uma negociação ou competição, o segredo está em antecipar e planejar.
💬 Citação: "Aquele que planeja e se prepara vencerá antes mesmo de lutar."
💡 Aplicação prática: Sempre esteja preparado. Estude seu campo, seus concorrentes e todas as variáveis antes de agir.
2️⃣ Conheça a Si Mesmo e Seu Inimigo 👥
Uma das lições mais famosas do livro: autoconhecimento e conhecimento do oponente são os pilares de qualquer vitória. Saber suas próprias forças e fraquezas, e conhecer o que move o "inimigo", seja ele uma pessoa ou um desafio, garante sua vantagem.
💬 Citação: "Se você conhece o inimigo e a si mesmo, não precisa temer o resultado de cem batalhas."
💡 Aplicação moderna: No mundo dos negócios, conheça seus pontos fortes e fracos, e estude seus concorrentes profundamente para ganhar vantagem.
3️⃣ A Importância da Flexibilidade: "A estratégia sem táticas é o caminho mais lento para a vitória"
Sun Tzu destaca que a adaptação é essencial em qualquer conflito ou desafio. Estratégias rígidas levam à derrota, enquanto táticas adaptáveis garantem o sucesso.
💬 Citação: "Na guerra, os planos são inúteis, mas o planejamento é essencial."
💡 Aplicação prática: Seja flexível. Não tenha medo de mudar sua abordagem conforme as circunstâncias mudam.
4️⃣ Engane Para Ganhar: "Toda guerra é baseada no engano"
Na estratégia de Sun Tzu, o uso do engano não é imoral, mas sim um recurso importante para vencer. Ele sugere que, ao confundir o oponente, você pode forçá-lo a cometer erros críticos.
💬 Citação: "Quando estiver perto, faça o inimigo acreditar que está longe; quando estiver longe, faça-o acreditar que está perto."
💡 Dica prática: Em negociações ou competições, mantenha seus planos privados e surpreenda seus adversários.
5️⃣ Velocidade é a Chave: "A rapidez é a essência da guerra"
Sun Tzu ensina que agir rapidamente e com precisão é um diferencial em qualquer batalha. A hesitação muitas vezes leva à derrota, enquanto a ação rápida pega o inimigo desprevenido.
💬 Citação: "A vitória rápida e decisiva é o melhor tipo de guerra."
💡 Aplicação: No mundo dos negócios ou decisões pessoais, agir de forma decisiva pode ser o diferencial entre o sucesso e o fracasso.
6️⃣ Escolha Suas Batalhas: "Evite o que é forte e ataque o que é fraco" 🛡️
Nem toda batalha vale a pena ser travada. Sun Tzu ensina a importância de escolher bem seus combates. Às vezes, a estratégia mais sábia é evitar um confronto que você não pode vencer e se concentrar nas oportunidades em que tem vantagem.
💬 Citação: "O general sábio evita a batalha que não pode vencer."
💡 Exemplo prático: No mundo moderno, isso pode significar evitar projetos ou negócios com alto risco e baixo retorno, e focar nas áreas onde você tem uma clara vantagem.
7️⃣ Use a Estratégia Indireta: "Atacar diretamente raramente é a melhor opção" 🏹
Sun Tzu ensina que o ataque direto é muitas vezes previsível e esperado. Ao invés disso, estratégias indiretas, que enganam e desorientam o inimigo, podem levar a uma vitória mais eficiente e menos desgastante.
💬 Citação: "Ataque onde ele não espera, e vá onde ele menos imagina."
💡 Dica prática: Em um projeto ou negociação, use métodos inovadores para alcançar seu objetivo de maneiras que seus concorrentes ou desafios não preveem.
8️⃣ Comandar com Liderança e Autoridade 🧑⚖️
Sun Tzu acredita que um exército forte só pode ser liderado por um líder forte. A disciplina, a moral e a eficácia de um exército são reflexos diretos da autoridade de seu líder.
💬 Citação: "Liderança é uma questão de inteligência, confiança, humanidade, coragem e disciplina."
💡 Lição moderna: Seja um líder que inspira e dá direção clara, mas que também entende as necessidades de seu time.
9️⃣ A Moral é um Pilar da Vitória: "Uma tropa unida é invencível" 🤝
Sun Tzu ensina que um exército, ou equipe, com alta moral e espírito de união é muito mais forte que um grupo desunido. A confiança e o respeito mútuo são essenciais para vencer batalhas.
💬 Citação: "Trate seus soldados como seus filhos, e eles o seguirão até os vales mais profundos."
💡 Aplicação prática: No trabalho ou na vida, mantenha sua equipe motivada e cuidada. A moral elevada leva a maiores realizações.
🔟 Evite Conflitos Desnecessários: "A maior vitória é aquela que não requer luta" 🕊️
A última grande lição de Sun Tzu é que a melhor vitória é aquela que vem sem batalha. Às vezes, a vitória pode ser alcançada através da negociação, diplomacia ou simples intimidação.
💬 Citação: "A arte suprema da guerra é submeter o inimigo sem lutar."
💡 Aplicação prática: Evite confrontos desnecessários em sua vida. Se você puder atingir seu objetivo sem conflito, você terá economizado recursos e tempo.
Conclusão: "A Arte da Guerra" não é apenas um manual de estratégia militar, mas um guia atemporal de sabedoria e táticas para a vida. Suas lições são aplicáveis a todos os campos, desde negociações de negócios, liderança, até relacionamentos pessoais.
. Nem sentimos incômodo pelo fato de nosso desprezo à educação amarrar o país, impedir o aumento da renda média e manter a sua trágica concentração devido ao sistema escolar dividido entre “escolas senzala” e “escolas casa grande”, determinando o futuro de uma criança desde o dia de seu nascimento; salvo raras exceções, tanto quanto antes era por causa da cor da pele durante a escravidão...
sábado, 5 de outubro de 2024
Cristovam Buarque - Santa raiva
Veja
A tragédia educacional precisa ser vista como a da escravidão
O movimento abolicionista só cresceu quando, em vez da simpatia à liberdade dos escravos, passou a usar a raiva contra a perversidade da escravidão e a denunciar a estupidez desse sistema para o progresso do país. Há décadas, nossos educacionistas defendem o direito de todos a uma escola com qualidade, mas a educação continua entre as piores e mais desiguais do mundo; sabe-se que a deseducação é uma barreira para nosso progresso, mas o eleitor não vota por educação, sobretudo se o candidato lembrar que essa prioridade exige relegar outros gastos.
Apenas com discurso simpático, educação não estará entre as prioridades dos políticos. Ainda mais agora, quando os resultados eleitorais são motivados mais pela raiva aos políticos do que por simpatia a uma causa.
Mais do que ser favorável à educação, os educacionistas precisam criar uma santa raiva contra a falta de educação, tanto quanto os abolicionistas contra a escravidão. Vergonha por termos entre 12 milhões e 14 milhões de adultos analfabetos plenos, incapazes de ler o lema escrito na bandeira; e quase 100 milhões despreparados para o mundo contemporâneo, sem um mapa que facilite sua busca pela felicidade pessoal nem as ferramentas necessárias a sua participação na promoção do progresso do país. Indignação por estarmos entre os piores do mundo em educação: 52º lugar em leitura, 65º em matemática, 62º em ciência, e termos o mais desigual sistema escolar do mundo conforme a renda e o endereço do aluno. Raiva por sabermos que essa situação deixará o Brasil atrasado, insustentável, injusto, ineficiente, continuando a escravidão mesmo 136 anos depois da abolição, que ficou incompleta por desprezo com a educação dos libertos.
“É vergonhoso termos entre 12 milhões e 14 milhões de adultos analfabetos plenos”
Medo coletivo diante do fato de que 40 milhões de nossos 50 milhões de brasileiros em idade escolar neste ano de 2024 serão deixados para trás e não desenvolverão o potencial necessário para construir um país rico, justo, civilizado; no máximo 10 milhões deles chegarão à vida adulta plenamente alfabetizados para a contemporaneidade. A raiva seria imensa se poços de petróleo fossem tapados, já temos raiva porque queimamos florestas, mas não há uma santa raiva contra a queima dos cérebros deixados para trás por falta de escolas com qualidade.
Nem sentimos incômodo pelo fato de nosso desprezo à educação amarrar o país, impedir o aumento da renda média e manter a sua trágica concentração devido ao sistema escolar dividido entre “escolas senzala” e “escolas casa grande”, determinando o futuro de uma criança desde o dia de seu nascimento; salvo raras exceções, tanto quanto antes era por causa da cor da pele durante a escravidão.
Felizmente, aprendemos a ter raiva da corrupção que domina a política, mas ainda não sentimos desconforto com a pior delas: o roubo de inteligência, negação de escola com qualidade para as crianças sem renda suficiente para pagar algumas das raras boas escolas privadas ou, com sorte, para entrar em uma das raras públicas com qualidade, em geral federal. Sentimos raiva porque o SUS não funciona bem, mas nenhuma raiva porque o Brasil, com 136 anos de República, ainda não tem um Sistema Único Público de Educação de Base com qualidade para todos.
A política só vai priorizar a educação quando os educacionistas, inspirados nos abolicionistas, promoverem um sentimento de santa raiva e vergonha diante da tragédia educacional, sua injustiça com os brasileiros e estupidez com o país.
Publicado em VEJA de 4 de outubro de 2024, edição nº 2913
Le philosophe Philippe Van Parijs, auteur entre autres d’un tableau remarqué de la philosophie politique analytique (Qu’est-ce qu’une société juste ? 1991) et grand théoricien du revenu universel, s’était associé, il y quelques années, avec le professeur d’économie Christian Arnsperger, pour proposer, dans un « Repère » très clair intitulé Éthique économique et sociale[1], une introduction aux grandes lignes de partage et de convergences de la réflexion contemporaine en philosophie politique. La seconde édition de ce synthétique opus des deux auteurs belges date de vingt ans mais l’ouvrage n’a, au fond, presque pas pris de ride.
Tour d’horizon
Soulignons d’emblée qu’il ne s’agit pas du rassemblement de constructions métaphysiques désincarnées, mais d’une présentation des différentes argumentations, rigoureuses et aux résonances concrètes, qui peuvent fonder autant les systèmes collectifs de protection sociale que les pratiques individuelles. En faisant le tour des références incontournables structurant les pans de la réflexion économique et sociale actuelle, Arnsperger et Van Parijs font œuvre utile avec une concision et une précision aussi utiles au néophyte qu’au spécialiste.
Depuis John Rawls et sa Théorie de la Justice (1971), une littérature conséquente s’est développée autour des fondements des institutions sociales et de l’organisation des sociétés. Indexées sur la question centrale de la justice sociale, différentes postures, très solides, sont disponibles sur le marché des convictions et des comportements. Sans fondements absolus, mais avec une indéniable cohérence interne, ces théorisations composent le spectre des positionnements éthiques et pratiques dans des démocraties avancées et pluralistes composées d’individus responsables et maîtres d’eux-mêmes.
Nos deux auteurs présentent de manière particulièrement didactique les quatre principales approches modernes de l’éthique économique et sociale. Avec chacune une vision de la société juste et du progrès humain, ces quatre approches, l’utilitarisme, le libertarisme, le marxisme et l’égalitarisme, campent les « points cardinaux » des réflexions et des discussions politiques, mais aussi, pouvons-nous ajouter, des discussions de café (qui ne sont pas moins importantes). Avec des bases historiques puissantes et des traductions institutionnelles élaborées ces approches structurent largement l’espace des raisonnements éthiques et politiques. Signalons d’entrée de jeu qu’aucune n’a jamais pu se développer sous une forme pure, ce qui est probablement heureux tant elles peuvent être, quand elles sont envisagées sous une forme extrême, pleines de paradoxes, voire de dangers. Faisant jouer les variables « juste », « bonne », « égalitaire », « libre », « heureuse », ces bases théoriques, qui ne sont pas des alternatives définitivement opposables, permettent d’évaluer les formes et les fondements de l’Etat-providence (voire de son dépassement).
L’utilitarisme, tout d’abord, est une doctrine fondée par Jeremy Bentham. Baptisée et popularisée par John Stuart Mill, cette doctrine aussi simple que forte considère qu’une société juste est une société heureuse. Refusant tout droit naturel et toute autorité suprême pour l’humanité, elle invite à se soucier essentiellement du « plus grand bonheur du plus grand nombre ». La notion centrale est celle d’utilité, comprise comme l’indicateur de satisfaction des préférences des individus. Cette utilité, agrégée au niveau de la société, doit être maximisée pour minimiser les souffrances. A dissocier de l’égoïsme et du matérialisme, l’utilitarisme est une prise en compte impartiale des préférences de chacun. Il va sans dire que les règles de décision (par exemple à la majorité) peuvent léser certains et aller jusqu’à légitimer la ségrégation. La maximisation du bien-être agrégé, comme objectif, peut alors être tempérée par la nécessité de respecter des droits fondamentaux.
Le point de départ de la deuxième référence fondamentale de l’éthique économique et sociale, l’approche libertarienne (au sens de libéral radical), est d’ailleurs cette question de la dignité fondamentale de chaque être humain. Puisant son inspiration dans le libéralisme classique d’un John Locke, le libertarisme connaît ses lettres de noblesse avec les économistes autrichiens Ludwig von Mises et Friedrich Hayek, et ses formulations les plus entières avec des auteurs américains comme Murray Rothbard ou Robert Nozick. Selon les libertariens, une société juste n’est pas une société heureuse, mais une société libre, c’est-à-dire composée d’individus souverains dont la liberté ne peut être bridée par des impératifs collectifs. Chacun, dans une société libertarienne, a d’abord entière propriété de soi. L’individu libre s’engage dans des transactions volontaires, refusant toute coercition et toute obligation, qui permettent une juste circulation des droits de propriété. Dans une version extrême le libertarisme peut être qualifié d’anarcho-capitalisme. Récusant la justice sociale (un « mirage » pour Hayek), les libertariens valorisent l’égalité formelle (l’égalité des droits) et repoussent toute idée d’égalité substantielle (égalité des chances ou des situations).
Le marxisme, en tant que troisième doctrine cardinale, fait droit à l’égalité comme exigence centrale. Comme théorie, le marxisme est fait de nombreuses composantes, allant d’une tradition de fidèles de Karl Marx à un marxisme analytique (Jon Elster, Gerald Cohen) soucieux moins de lutte des classes et de dictature du prolétariat que de la formulation logique d’une théorie égalitaire de la justice. Dans le projet marxiste, l’idée est d’abolir l’aliénation inhérente au capitalisme et de mettre fin à l’exploitation de l’homme par l’homme, ou plus précisément, d’en finir avec l’exploitation du surtravail de certains. Plutôt qu’une opposition stricte entre deux couches de la société, les marxistes contemporains (certains disent – sérieusement – les marxiens), rendent compte d’inégalités de bien-être matériel, ancrée dans des inégalités de dotation, éclairant de la sorte les nouvelles formes de disparités de ressources et de positions sociales. La difficulté reste de distinguer les injustices issues d’inégalité de talents innés ou de savoir-faire, pour savoir que faire de l’héritage et de l’épargne.
Le quatrième point cardinal, auquel va la préférence des auteurs, est la conception libérale-égalitaire de la justice. Incarnée par John Rawls, cette référence de l’éthique économique et sociale occupe désormais une « position pivot » à côté des trois vénérables traditions marxiste, libertarienne et utilitaristes avec leurs déclinaisons contemporaines. Dans cette conception une société juste est d’abord une société conforme aux principes suivants : égale liberté des uns et des autres, légitimité des inégalités si elles peuvent profiter aux plus désavantagés, égalité des chances. C’est ensuite une société juste si elle répartit les « biens premiers » (droit de vote, liberté de pensée, avantages socio-économiques, bases du respect de soi, etc.) de manière équitable entre ses membres. Une difficulté est alors de fonder un indice synthétique de ces biens premiers permettant de bien différencier les positions, notamment pour dire qui est le plus mal loti.
Autour de Rawls, de multiples évaluations, réfutations et variations se sont accumulées. Rejetant généralement, comme lui, les approches et les notions dites welfaristes, c’est-à-dire fondées sur les utilités et sur les préférences, des économistes, des sociologues et des philosophes se sont attachés à défendre d’autres entrées pour apprécier la question de l’égalité. C’est le cas, par exemple, de Amartya Sen qui cherche à fonder la justice comme égalité, non pas des biens, mais des capacités fondamentales de tout un chacun à pouvoir bénéficier de ces biens.
Exercices de philosophie politique
Après la présentation de cette palette à quatre coins des doctrines éthiques, qu’ils argumentent avec clarté, érudition et humour, Arnsperger et Van Parijs font tourner les différents modèles autour de deux problématiques particulières : les soins de santé peuvent-ils être laissés au libre jeu du marché ? faut-il ouvrir les frontières ? En ces domaines l’utilitarisme fait des calculs coûts bénéfices et mesure des externalités, le libertarisme soutient la souveraineté naturelle des patients et des soignants et affirme le droit fondamental à la mobilité universelle, le marxisme vise à réduire l’exploitation par les besoins et l’exploitation nationale, l’égalitarisme libéral propose une assurance santé de base et ne conclue pas de manière univoque sur la question de la circulation des étrangers.
Au terme de notre exercice (compliqué tant la matière est dense) de compte-rendu, on doit redire que les thèmes et les objets traités ici sont des plus concrets. La visée de Arnsperger et Van Parijs n’a d’ailleurs rien à voir avec l’exégèse de chambre. Leur projet est pédagogique. Il s’agit de s’initier à l’exercice de la philosophie politique incarnée, appuyé sur les grands modèles interprétatifs et normatifs. Autant qu’à la lecture des auteurs qu’ils examinent et à l’examen des divers principes qu’ils abordent, ils invitent leurs lecteurs et leurs étudiants à la pratique in concreto. Il s’agit d’aborder collectivement des sujets de société, sans s’imposer prémisses ou conclusions, en cherchant à aboutir à une cohérence dans l’argumentation au terme de la confrontation raisonnée des points de vue. Ceux-ci peuvent être soutenus à partir des quatre points cardinaux de l’éthique économique et sociale. Cet exercice est salutaire pour des sujets aussi variés, dans le domaine de la protection sociale, que le fondement de prestations familiales, l’efficience d’aides au logement, ou la légitimité de minima sociaux. Par un jeu de confrontation des justifications et des objections on peut aboutir à un équilibre sensé et non dogmatique des positions.
Le travail de réflexion auquel nous convie individuellement l’éthique économique et sociale est particulièrement exigeant. Au-delà de certitudes qui nous seraient données par le « terrain », l’économétrie ou l’idéologie, la pesée de l’importance relative des grands courants de pensée permet de fonder en raison des opinions personnelles, des prestations collectives et des politiques publiques.
[1] Christian Arnsperger, Philippe Van Parijs, Éthique économique et sociale, La Découverte, coll. « Repères », 2000, deuxième édition 2003.
Fazendo uma coisa que nunca fiz antes: recomendar voto em alguém...
Uma modesta sugestão aos eleitores de São
Paulo: Tabata Amaral
Paulo Roberto de Almeida, diplomata, professor.
Sou paulistano, mas pouco votei em
São Paulo ou por São Paulo.
Lembro-me, ainda muito criança, ter
acompanhado meu pai no voto para presidente em 1960, o que se imaginava ser a
grande esperança de luta contra a corrupção e a inflação (já crescente), e que
foi uma grande frustração alguns meses depois. Lembro-me, igualmente, de que na
crise da renúncia (sobre a qual eu não entendia literalmente nada), minha mãe
foi nos buscar na escola, quando normalmente eu e meu irmão voltávamos a pé
para casa, por temer não sei qual tipo de confusão (talvez como no suicídio do
Getúlio, quando meus pais já eram adultos, embora em SP não tenha havido o
impacto que teve no Rio de Janeiro).
Depois, por causa do golpe militar
e da ditadura que se seguiu, não votamos mais, por longos anos, sequer para
prefeitos das capitais.
Acabei saindo do Brasil em 1970, sem
jamais ter exercido o direito cidadão do voto, para qualquer cargo em qualquer
nível, e assim permaneci sete longos anos no exterior, refazendo a graduação
incompleta (deixei Ciências Sociais na USP no segundo ano), com um mestrado
terminado e um doutoramento iniciado. Não tenho certeza de ter justificado
inadimplência eleitoral no consulado do Brasil em Antuérpia, onde residi por
algum tempo.
Quando voltei ao Brasil, em meados
de 1977, sequer tive tempo ou oportunidade, de votar pela primeira vez, pois
que logo incorporei-me ao serviço diplomático e acabei saindo do Brasil pouco
tempo depois, dois anos e meio após ter voltado. Apenas relato, como parte de
meus registros político-eleitorais, que voltei a lutar pela redemocratização,
tendo auxiliado na campanha do candidato da oposição a presidente da República
em 1978, e por mesmo isso fui fichado pelo SNI como “ diplomata subversivo”,
conforme verifiquei anos depois no diretório do órgão no Arquivo Nacional de
Brasília. Devo ter votado uma única vez em Brasília, mas com meu título de SP,
apenas em nível federal. Passaram-se várias eleições, na quais votei ou não,
dependendo do lugar do mundo em que houvesse votação consular, sendo que eu
mesmo organizei as eleições presidenciais de 2014 para o pessoal brasileiro
inscrito no Consulado em Hartford, nos EUA, onde estava lotado naquele ano.
Neste ano de 2024, Brasília não tem
eleições, mas acompanhei a movimentação em algumas capitais a partir do
noticiário da mídia, com especial atenção para as tribulações dos candidatos em
São Paulo. Confesso que fiquei estarrecido com o desempenho dos três primeiros
colocados na disputa municipal e é esta a razão que me induz a escrever um
pedido, uma sugestão, um apelo a todos os meus amigos, conhecidos e
desconhecidos, que por acaso acessem minhas redes sociais como eleitores paulistanos
ou residentes e inscritos em alguma circunscrição eleitoral da cidade.
Considero que a única candidata
digna de voto na maior cidade do país, no terceiro maior orçamento da federação
– após o próprio orçamento da União e o do estado de SP –, é a paulista Tabata
Amaral, parlamentar federal e lutadora pela educação no Brasil.
Repito: considero ser esta
candidata a única digna do voto dos eleitores e cidadãos de São Paulo capital,
por dezenas de razões que não julgo necessário expor aqui.
Is China’s model of economic development compatible with democracy? Were events like Tiananmen Square and the rise of Xi Jinping inevitable under China’s governance structure?
Welcome back to part 2 of our interview with Yasheng Huang 黄亚生, the author of The Rise and Fall of the EAST: How Exams, Autocracy, Stability, and Technology Brought China Success and Why They Might Lead to Its Decline.
In this installment, we discuss…
The aspects of imperial China’s governance Mao chose to embrace, and those he chose to abandon,
The factors enabling Mao’s radical policies compared to imperial rulers,
Why China was able to grow so much faster than India, despite the setbacks of the Cultural Revolution,
Statistical approaches for evaluating the effectiveness of autocratic development models,
China’s economic reforms and rural development policies in the 1980s,
How the events of 1989 permanently altered China’s trajectory,
Whether the rise of Xi Jinping was inevitable.
Apple Podcasts:
Imperial Legacy Part 2: 1949 to Xi's Death
ChinaTalk
2:04:32
Spotify:
Imperial Legacy Part 2: 1949 to Xi's Death
Jordan Schneider
Episode
Co-hosting today is Ilari Mäkelä of the On Humans podcast. Here’s part one if you missed it.
Xinhai revolutionaries ambush Qing forces at Nanking in 1911. Painting by T. Miyano.
Mao’s China — Dynastic Traditions and Leninist Innovations
Jordan Schneider: Last week, we discussed Chinese history up to 1949. Ilari, could you give us a brief recap of our first episode?
Ilari Mäkelä: To understand China’s history, Yasheng Huang emphasizes the importance of focusing on the little-studied period after the collapse of the Han dynasty in the third century. During the next few centuries, China resembled Europe, with no single power base and competing ideologies. Huang’s studies have shown that this was also when China was at its most inventive.
Unlike Europe, this political fragmentation ended when China was unified again in the 6th century under the Sui dynasty. Everything changed with the introduction of civil service exams on a large scale. These exams allowed a significant portion of the population to participate and created stability. Many Chinese believed that through hard work, they could gain political power.
While this system prevented the development of a European-style aristocracy, it funneled all intellectual efforts into serving the emperor. Consequently, there were no power struggles like Henry VIII versus the pope, nor was there an Enlightenment-style intelligentsia. Instead, China produced numerous Confucian-educated civil servants.
Jordan Schneider: Professor Huang, what aspects of this imperial tradition did Mao adopt or reject when he began to rule in 1949?
Yasheng Huang: Mao took over China in 1949, inheriting certain aspects of imperial China while departing from others. He maintained and extended autocratic controls, implementing strong economic controls through central planning, state ownership, and government price-setting. Politically, communist China’s power reached beyond the county level, extending to villages through land reforms and the communist system.
However, Mao actively went against imperial tradition by de-emphasizing bureaucracy and meritocracy. This shift began in 1957 and intensified during the Cultural Revolution in 1966. Universities were closed, examinations and expertise were downplayed, and ideology was elevated. While ideology was important in imperial China, Mao’s approach differed significantly, relying on political and ideological studies rather than the traditional examination system.
Jordan Schneider: It’s interesting that you argue the more codified a system is and the fewer power bases that exist, the more important the leader’s actions become. However, even powerful Ming or Song dynasty emperors couldn’t have executed the level of radical changes that Mao implemented from the mid-1950s through the end of his reign. Mao seemed to combine the worst of both worlds — centralized personal power without bureaucratic and cultural safeguards that would have prevented disasters like the Great Leap Forward or the Cultural Revolution.
Yasheng Huang: Excellent observation, Jordan. Two additional factors contributed to this difference.
Modernity — imperial China lacked modern means of transportation and communication. Indoctrination was the primary tool, and once officials were dispatched to remote regions, central control diminished. In contrast, modern systems allow for instantaneous and ongoing control through air travel, trains, and buses, facilitating frequent indoctrination sessions in Beijing.
Transformative agenda — imperial China, like many traditional polities, focused on maintaining the status quo. They often lacked knowledge of potential transformations or how to preempt them. Mao, however, had a highly transformative agenda. In 1958, he famously aimed to surpass Britain and America in steel production — a concept foreign to Ming dynasty emperors.
Communist China was more ambitious and transformative, aided by Leninist techniques and organizational capacity. It wasn’t a carbon copy of imperial China, but incorporated elements borrowed mostly from the Soviet Union.
Vladimir Lenin’s theory of the vanguard of the revolution emphasized the ability of political elites to rapidly transform society. While Karl Marx predicted that communist revolutions would occur after capitalism, Lenin argued they could be launched directly from feudalism. This transformative agenda was absent in imperial China but central to Mao’s rule.
Jordan Schneider: The contrast between the Ming dynasty and Mao’s Leninism is fascinating. You argue that when Marco Polo arrived in Yuan Dynasty China, he felt transported 500 years into the future. During the voyages of Zheng He 鄭和, the Chinese viewed other cultures as backward and lacking.
Human nature may play a role here. When elites feel they’re at the top and things are stable, they may be less inclined to explore, change their minds, or question whether their system has all the answers. In contrast, from the fall of the Qing dynasty through the Republican period to Mao’s era, there was a keen awareness that China needed to catch up with the rest of the world.
To what extent is this perspective determined by China’s relative position as more or less advanced than other societies?
Yasheng Huang: I agree that the factor I mentioned is one of many contributing to this perspective. However, even given the disparity between East and West 500 years ago, it doesn’t fully explain China’s isolationist stance. The mental model you describe likely applies to the political elite who, upon seeing nothing impressive abroad, decided to remain insular.
Today, people from wealthy countries often explore poorer regions out of curiosity. When Christopher Columbus embarked on his voyages, he had personal motivations and potential gains alongside nationalistic agendas. This personal stake was entirely absent in Zheng He’s voyages, which were purely state-sponsored activities with national objectives.
Jordan Schneider: That’s an apt comparison. European colonization in the 18th, 19th, and 20th centuries — despite the lack of respect for native populations — still involved scientists and observers who documented their experiences. This information flowed back into the broader ecosystem. In contrast, China lacked this type of engagement for over a thousand years.
Autocratic vs Democratic Development Strategies
Jordan Schneider: Ilari, would you like to bring us back to Mao?
Ilari Mäkelä: One interesting aspect is the package Mao inherited from the imperial era (albeit in a mutated form) is the autocratic tradition, which we often view as partially negative.
One of the most fascinating questions in comparative economics is why China has grown so much faster than India. Some argue that democracy doesn’t work well for such a large country as India, suggesting that autocracy, like in China, is necessary. You have a different perspective, focusing more on China’s human capital resources.
I recall you mentioning in your TED talk that China grew at a pace similar to or even faster than India, even during Mao’s era. This suggests that growth occurred despite policy, not because of it. You attribute this to an inherent push for growth in China, absent in India, linking it primarily to literacy. Is this correct?
Yasheng Huang: The baseline judgment on China and India is based on almost a single data point from the World Bank website — the GDP per capita of China and India in 1980 or 1990. It shows that India had a higher GDP per capita than China at that time. Twenty or thirty years later, China’s GDP per capita surpassed India’s. Many people used this data point to argue that autocracy (China) could grow faster than democracy (India).
However, there are a couple of problems with this conclusion. First, the data is almost certainly wrong. One issue with Chinese GDP data is that they used a Soviet system called the material product measure, which didn’t include the service sector. In poor countries without industrialization, you have agriculture and a sizable service sector. For many years, the service sector was very large in the Indian economy.
Ilari Mäkelä: But isn’t it still true that China has undergone a more dramatic transformation than India since the 1980s?
Yasheng Huang: Absolutely. The point I was making earlier disputes the initial discrepancy. Given that China grew faster than India, it’s actually more impressive if you believe that China started from a higher per capita base. However, there are many differences between China and India. It’s puzzling why people immediately jump to the conclusion that it was because India was a democracy and China was not.
To properly evaluate this, we need to look at global evidence to compare at least two competing hypotheses, which are human capital and the political system. Academic literature increasingly shows that autocratic and democratic systems don’t have a significant impact on growth rates. Some autocracies grow very fast, like China, Taiwan, and South Korea in the 1960s and 1970s. There are also spectacular failures, such as the Philippines, Indonesia, and many African countries.
The problem with the formulation by many Chinese and some Western intellectuals is that they escalate a factual statement about China growing faster than India to a statement about the superiority of autocratic systems.
When discussing systems rather than specific countries, you need evidence from other countries with the same system as China. That’s just common sense.
Jordan Schneider: Where do you think this argument comes from then?
Yasheng Huang: Some people believe in autocracy and are grasping for evidence to show their belief has economic benefits. I often point out to them that China was also autocratic under Mao, but it didn’t grow very fast during that period. An honest person would conclude that there must be something else different between Mao and Deng’s eras. Perhaps globalization, open policies, or private sector development played a role.
I’m dissatisfied with media coverage because they often go for sensational statements without examining the logic behind people’s views. In academic seminars, these arguments wouldn’t hold up for five minutes because basic logic would demolish them. Unfortunately, media attention often goes to those making broad, sensational statements rather than those presenting logical arguments and evidence.
Liberalism and the Future of Chinese Democracy
Ilari Mäkelä: One reason for the hyperbolic “it’s because of autocracy” conclusion might be that some Westerners have inadvertently contributed to this by repeatedly claiming that autocracies cannot grow fast. When faced with a fast-growing autocracy, it’s easy to jump to the opposite extreme conclusion. Would it be fair to say that there are certain conditions under which autocracies can grow fast? For China, factors like the imperial legacy of civil service exams (Keju) leading to high literacy and human capital, and a post-Mao autocratic political environment that was more conducive to growth due to increased pluralism and diversity, played significant roles?
Yasheng Huang: That’s a very good observation, Ilari. In my current book, which is a revision of my 2008 book, I argue that the right way to look at China or any country is to focus on the direction of movement rather than static conditions. That is, we need to look at whether the is country moving towards more openness or more closure.
It’s not accurate to say that China couldn’t grow because it’s not a Western democracy, or that it could grow because it’s not a Western democracy. The key is to look at the movement of both Eastern and Western countries. Are they moving in an open or closed direction? In statistical terms, this is called a difference-in-differences approach.
“The future prospects of the village 农村远景图,” Great Leap Forward poster, 1958. Source.
Under Deng Xiaoping, China was undoubtedly an autocracy, but it was moving away from Mao’s totalitarianism towards a more authoritarian society. For people living there, this shift made a huge difference. The incentive effect comes from that movement.
Imagine an entrepreneur in 1978. They wouldn’t be deterred by the lack of Western-style institutions. Instead, they would be encouraged by the fact that they could now start a business without fear of arrest, unlike in 1976. The incentive effect came from China becoming less autocratic, not from being autocratic.
As a policy question, the real issue is whether to move the country more towards or away from autocracy, even if the decision isn’t about fully embracing democracy.
Jordan Schneider: Can we relate this to your personal history? If you were born five or ten years earlier, do you think you would have even bothered learning English? How did this change in the political climate reflect in your youth, particularly in terms of learning and the drive to acquire knowledge?
Yasheng Huang: In my personal case, I was always interested in knowing more rather than less, regardless of the environment. After coming to the US, I spent hours in the library reading Western writings about China, particularly about the Cultural Revolution and the Great Leap Forward, because I couldn’t access that knowledge in China.
Regarding business motivations, people need to feel secure to make investments. If you know you’ll be arrested immediately after making an investment, you won’t do it. In my book, I emphasize the importance of not underestimating the incentive effect of not being arrested. Many people focus on China’s lack of secure property rights law, neglecting the fact that Deng Xiaoping significantly increased the personal security of the Chinese people. This increased security was a crucial factor in encouraging Chinese entrepreneurs to start businesses.
Ilari Mäkelä: The era after 1978 is indeed special and quite different from everything else that happened under the CCP. There wasn’t a significant rural-urban gap at the time, with rural areas growing as fast as urban areas. There was also a diversity of voices within the party, ranging from old-school economic planners to reformers like Zhao Ziyang 赵紫阳. Since you lived in China in the 1980s, could you share your personal experience of that period?
Yasheng Huang: I first came to the US in 1981, but I returned to work for the World Bank in China during the 1980s. However, my understanding of that period didn’t come from my lived experience. Like many Western observers, I didn’t have a clear view of the 1980s until I began working on my 2008 book.
After publishing a book on foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2003, I was left with the question — what was driving Chinese growth in the 1980s, before FDI became crucial? This led me to research the 1980s extensively for my 2008 book, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics, which is also summarized in my 2023 book.
I discovered that reforms in rural China went far beyond agricultural reforms. There were contracting reforms, land reforms, village elections, and even rural financial liberalization. I was astonished by how proactive the Chinese leadership was about rural financial liberalization. Top officials from various banks were issuing support for these reforms.
Large-scale financial institutions developed extremely fast in rural areas during the 1980s. This affected 800 million people, as China was 80% rural at the time. Yet, Western scholarship largely ignores this period. The prevailing narrative is that China grew without financialization or with a state-owned financial system, disregarding the extensive documentation and statistical analysis showing otherwise.
It’s frustrating and saddening that there’s so little curiosity about this crucial period in China’s development, despite its immense impact on hundreds of millions of people.
Ilari Mäkelä: You’ve piqued my curiosity. Before we discuss what happens next and why this trend doesn’t continue, I’d like to ask a question. I mentioned earlier that one of the interesting aspects of the ATS is that it’s not always a matter of the CCP making decisions based on a grand strategy. Often, it’s because there is no grand strategy. There are internal power struggles, such as Deng Xiaoping versus Chen Yun 陈云, or Zhao Ziyang versus Li Xiannian 李先念. Based on your research into those documents, to what extent was this a unanimous decision in Beijing versus the liberal factions of Hu Yaobang 胡耀邦 and others being able to operate under the cover of confusion?
Yasheng Huang: People like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang didn’t suddenly decide to implement financial liberalization. What’s remarkable about 1980 is threefold.
There was political fragmentation at the very top, as you mentioned.
The policy ethos was focused on tangibly improving people’s lives rather than solely on GDP growth. Any policy or practice that improved people’s lives was considered the right approach by definition. For example, small-scale sellers on Beijing streets selling chickens and various goods were allowed because it improved their lives by providing income.
There was a prevalence of initiative-taking. A concrete example is the Rural Credit Foundation, an almost national-scale rural financial institution. The central bank refused to recognize it, fearing disruption of financial control. However, the Minister of Agriculture stepped in and provided legitimacy. Such local bureaucratic initiative is unimaginable in China today or even in the 1990s.
These practices weren’t initiated by Deng Xiaoping, Zhao Ziyang, or Hu Yaobang. Deng Xiaoping famously said about township and village enterprises, “The Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party takes no credit for it. It was a total surprise to us.” Essentially, there was space for organic and spontaneous practices, which almost entirely disappeared, especially in rural China, after 1989.
Jordan Schneider: Let’s discuss 1989 then. You have this concept of axiomatic legitimacy, where after 1500 years of imperial rule over the broader Chinese landmass, people expect and defer to the legitimacy of the center, except during rare occasions like dynastic falls or major invasions. Professor, to what extent do you believe a counter-revolutionary reaction was inevitable?
Yasheng Huang: I don’t believe 1989 was inevitable. I concede that China’s post-1989 direction was more likely than before, but it wasn’t 100% determined by axiomatic legitimacy. Every culture starts with certain presumptions. In Chinese culture, due to history and autocratic rule, there’s a presumption that whatever the government does is legitimate and beneficial to individual welfare.
This view was present in both the 1980s and 1990s. The difference lies in the ability to question and debate these presumptions in the 1980s. Sometimes, you might end up with the same view you started with, which is fine. However, the opportunity for discussion and inquiry existed.
In contrast, without freedom of discussion or what Amartya Sen called “discussion democracy,” people tend to maintain their initial views without examination.
This is evident today, where many young Chinese people, even those living in the West, refuse to engage in different mental processes and cling to their axiomatic views.
Jordan Schneider: The real question is whether a discussion democracy can exist under CCP rule. Is it possible to have a system where people like young Yasheng Huang can question the legitimacy of Beijing’s rule? Can a governing body be comfortable with this level of questioning, or was the 1980s an anomaly due to the aftermath of Mao’s era, which ended when the system responded to people asking too many questions?
Yasheng Huang: I’m of two minds on this issue. It’s debatable whether 1989 was an inevitable result of a looser autocratic system or a consequence of individual decisions by leaders and students. When I study history, I’m struck by how often individual events shape its course.
Looking at Taiwan and South Korea, both experienced massacres but didn’t reverse their economic and social progress. At some point, their leaders decided to let go and allow change.
Taiwanese students protesting for democracy at Chiang Kai-shek Memorial Hall, March 1990, during the Wild Lily movement 野百合學運. Source.
Today, Taiwan and South Korea are vibrant democracies, arguably performing better in some aspects than Western democracies.During the pandemic, for example, people in these countries trusted their governments more readily.
Regarding China in the 1990s, it wasn’t necessarily imperative for the regime to reject all political reforms proposed by Zhao Ziyang. Hu Jintao moved China further in a statist direction, and Xi Jinping continued this trend. I attribute much of the blame to the leadership that came to power in China after 1989, whom I refer to as the “Shanghainese” due to their origins and viewpoints.
This new leadership focused on globalization, privatization, and urban development while neglecting rural areas. They viewed the countryside as a burden, believing peasants couldn’t contribute significantly to GDP growth or technological development. This perspective shaped the “China model” of urban development, high-tech industries, and infrastructure that we see today. The rural reformers, including Zhao Ziyang, were sidelined or marginalized in the aftermath of Tiananmen.
Ilari Mäkelä: I’d like to challenge your earlier statement that 1989 wasn’t that important. It seems it could be the most crucial event. The conservative old guard wanted to maintain their way, while Deng Xiaoping aligned with liberal reformers like Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang. The Tiananmen Square protests allowed the conservative faction to drive a wedge between the political and economic liberals and Deng Xiaoping, who appeared to be an economic liberal but a political conservative.
This shift resulted in everything you described, but it also led to another significant change. You mentioned the ideologically stubborn youth in China today. Some argue this is also a post-Tiananmen symptom. The government decided to emphasize ideological training over economic focus. New curricula were introduced, emphasizing national humiliation. Wang Zheng’s 汪铮 book, Never Forget National Humiliation,discusses how this phrase became a classroom mantra for Chinese children.
The words on the board say, “Never forget national humiliation, unyieldingly defend our homeland 勿忘国耻，强我国防” and, “September 18th incident 九一八事变,” which refers to the Japanese false-flag operationstaged as a pretext to invade Manchuria.
The narrative of Chinese humiliation and rejuvenation under the Communist Party became a way to prevent another Tiananmen Square incident. By teaching children about the horrible past and the great present, while instilling suspicion of foreign influence, the government shaped a new generation. The Xi Jinping era seems to be a natural progression of two trends — nationalism in textbooks and the lack of political pluralism in the CCP.
Yasheng Huang: I apologize if I wasn’t clear earlier. I absolutely believe that 1989 was extremely important. In fact, I think it was more significant than many scholars have acknowledged. They usually recognize its political impact but overlook its economic consequences. In my revised 2008 book, I presented statistics demonstrating that Tiananmen also had substantial economic effects.
The question is whether it had to turn out this way. There’s an unconfirmed rumor among Chinese intellectuals that Deng Xiaoping considered inviting Zhao Ziyang back at one point. If true, and if Zhao had returned, would China have taken such a divergent path? My observation is that while there was a 90% chance of China ending up this way, there might have been a 10% chance that leaders weren’t as constrained by 1989 and could have continued reforms.
Taiwan and South Korea, for instance, had their own massacres but managed to move on. Perhaps some distance from the event is necessary. However, China remains stuck in a Tiananmen mindset long after the event, which I believe is largely, but not entirely, determined by Tiananmen.
Jordan Schneider: The key issue, relating to your lifespan argument, is that reform in Taiwan and South Korea occurred after the death of their autocratic leaders. China’s problem was that it had more people with charismatic, revolutionary legitimacy who lived exceptionally long lives. If Deng Xiaoping and Chen Yun hadn’t been around in the late 1980s, the slightly younger generation, more open to different political perspectives, might have had more power. My counterfactual is that if Tiananmen had happened in 1994 or when these older leaders were more incapacitated or absent, the balance of power within the system might have been different. Even after Mao’s death, there were still enough people with strong beliefs in the old system and charismatic credibility to maintain their influence, preventing the new generation from asserting themselves.
Yasheng Huang: I agree with your analysis about the overlapping generations, which was absent in Taiwan and South Korea. Interestingly, the Cultural Revolution profoundly affected many revolutionary elders. While many were staunch conservatives, a few were quite liberal – more so than the technocrats who came to power in the 1990s. They were willing to think about issues systemically, which is how I define liberalism: considering solutions at a system level rather than focusing solely on leadership changes.
Take Xi Zhongxun 习仲勋, Xi Jinping’s father, for example. He was liberal not just in supporting liberalization but in making procedural arguments. At the Politburo meeting that ousted Hu Yaobang, he argued that the process violated agreed-upon rules. This was a revolutionary way of thinking in such a system, more profound than simply advocating for a market economy or democracy. His insistence on process and rules was more revolutionary than economic liberalization, although ultimately, he was defeated.
The lesson China should have learned from the Cultural Revolution was that it wasn’t just Mao’s mistakes, but the system that allowed him to make those mistakes.
Earlier Chinese Communist Party documents reflecting on that period showed this understanding. They instituted some separation of powers, with the presidency and party secretary general held by different individuals. However, this lesson was forgotten after 1989 when Jiang Zemin was brought to Beijing. Worried about his weakness, they abolished other power centers to consolidate his authority, leading to the China we see today.
Jordan Schneider: Professor, I searched for your name in Chinese and found many English language interviews about your book, but only one in Chinese. Have you considered starting your own YouTube channel or podcast series?
Yasheng Huang: I’m not very good at that, to be honest. It’s worth noting that before Xi Jinping, and even during his first term, I did many interviews with Chinese media outlets. I could go into great detail about data and evidence, much more so than with Western media. I was very impressed with the quality of Chinese financial journalism. However, the situation has changed now, not because the quality has declined, but because the political environment has shifted.
Ilari Mäkelä: Let’s examine China today then. In some ways, Xi Jinping seems to be a natural progression of these trends…
In part 3 we discuss the rise of Xi, succession dynamics, and prospects for liberalization in China’s future
We discuss…
The Steelman case for why China needed a leader like Xi Jinping,
What sets Xi apart from his predecessors,
Succession challenges in authoritarian states and likely scenarios post-Xi,
Why engagement with China failed to produce political liberalization,
How the US could have better leveraged economic relations with China,
Creative approaches to human rights advocacy in China...
