O que é este blog?

Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida;

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segunda-feira, 24 de dezembro de 2012

Economistas debatem 2012 e 2013 - Estadao (Blog do Mansueto)

Balanço de 2012 e as perspectivas de 2013.

O jornal o Estado de São Paulo na sua edição deste domingo, 23 de dezembro de 2012, convidou dez economistas para fazer o balanço de 2012 e perspectivas de 2013. Segue abaixo a introdução dos artigos escrita pelo jornalista Fernando Dantas e a lista de todos os artigos com o link de cada um deles no sitio do Estado de São Paulo.
Estado de São Paulo – Economia – 23 de dezembro de 2012
Artigos de balanço de 2012 e perspectivas para 2013 mostram interpretações divergentes sobre a desaceleração dos dois últimos anos
Fernando Dantas / RIO
O baixo crescimento brasileiro, já pelo segundo ano seguido, é a preocupação dominante da maioria dos articulistas convidados pelo ‘Estado’ para escrever sobre o balanço de 2012 e as perspectivas de 2013. Nas próximas páginas, ficarão claras as diferenças de interpretação da desaceleração por membros do governo, como o ministro da Fazenda, Guido Mantega, e o presidente do BNDES, Luciano Coutinho ,e de críticos da política econômica, como os economistas Affonso Celso Pastore, José Roberto Mendonça de Barros e Gustavo Franco.
Para o governo, o País vive um momento de transição, durante o qual a adaptação a um novo regime macroeconômico de juros ineditamente baixos e câmbio mais desvalorizado provocou uma provisória refreada na atividade econômica.
Mantega acredita que 2012 foi o ano de “implantação de reformas estruturais profundas”: além de câmbio e juros, ele menciona a redução da carga tributária de diversas empresas e setores. Estas mudanças, para o ministro, consolidam “as bases para um crescimento econômico de longo prazo”.
Coutinho, em denso e longo artigo, vê o Brasil numa trajetória de superação dos desequilíbrios do crescimento, que serão corrigidos pela redução dos custos de produção (já em curso), aceleração do crescimento da produtividade e elevação das taxas de investimento e de poupança.
Já Pastore vê os ambiciosos objetivos de crescimento e de investimento do início do governo da presidente Dilma Rousseff sendo frustrados pela falta de um plano de reformas. O economista aponta que o equívoco do governo é o de achar que “bastaria estimular o consumo e forçar a queda da taxa real de juros para chegar ao objetivo desejado”. Ele lembra também que a desvalorização do real pode afetar negativamente os investimentos, historicamente dependentes da importação de máquinas no Brasil.
Mendonça de Barros bate na teclados problemas de competitividade, como “impostos complexos, muitas vezes antieconômicos e elevados”, “deterioração da infraestrutura” e “mão de obra pouco treinada”. Pedro Passos, presidente do Instituto de Estudos para o Desenvolvimento Industrial (Iedi), defende políticas industriais focadas na produtividade e na inovação.
Gustavo Franco nota que a confiança que falta para investir não se cria com hiperativismo do governo, que, na sua visão, faz melhor quando “orienta, cuida do estádio e do gramado e não se mete a cobrar escanteio”.
Na área fiscal, o economista Mansueto Almeida, do Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada (Ipea), mostra que, nas últimas décadas, com gastos crescendo sempre acima do PIB, a responsabilidade fiscal é refém do aumento da carga tributária. Almeida prevê dificuldades para se chegar em 2013 a um superávit primário de 2% a 2,5% do PIB, inferior à meta de 3,1%.
Mais amena é a visão sobre o Brasil de economistas de grande prestígio internacional, como Mohamed El-Erian, gestor do Pimco, maior fundo de investimentos do mundo, e Jim O’Neill, presidente da gestora de recursos do Goldman Sachs.
Numa candente defesa da importância dos Brics, termo por ele criado que inclui Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China, O’Neill recomenda ao governo brasileiro evitar a sobrevalorização do real e reforçar a produtividade dos setores não relacionados a commodities.
Já El Erian pede às autoridades brasileiras reformas e uma política fiscal mais ágil, mas vê boas oportunidades para as empresas do País em 2013. Barry Eichengreen, professor da Universidade da Califórnia em Berkeley, explica por que o nível de crescimento de países emergentes como o Brasil será decisivo para definir se haverá ou não guerra cambial em 2013.
Lista dos Artigos (com link para página do Estado de São Paulo):

Cartografia política - Simon Garfield (WSJ)

The End of the Map

Apple Maps stands at the end of a long line of cartographic catastrophes. Say goodbye to the Mountains of Kong and New South Greenland—the enchanting era of geographic gaffes is coming to a close.

[image] David Rumsey Map Collection
The Mountains of Kong, shown in Africa on an 1839 American atlas, were 'discovered' by English cartographer James Rennell in 1798. Rennell based his map showing the fictional range on an erroneous account from a Scottish explorer. It persisted on maps for almost a century—until it was discovered not to exist.
Author Simon Garfield discusses his new book, "On the Map: A Mind-Expanding Exploration of the Way the World Looks," with WSJ Weekend Review editor Gary Rosen.
It's not often that maps make headlines, but they've been doing so with some regularity lately. Last week, tens of millions of iPhone users found that they could suddenly leave their homes again without getting either lost or cross. This was because Google GOOG -0.93% finally released an app containing its own (fairly brilliant) mapping system. Google Maps had been sorely missed for several months, ever since Apple AAPL -0.46% booted it in favor of the company's own inadequate alternative—a cartographic dud blamed for everything from deleting Shakespeare's birthplace to stranding Australian travelers in a desolate national park 43 miles away from their actual destination. As one Twitter wag declared: "I wouldn't trade my Apple Maps for all the tea in Cuba."

Photos: Lost in Our Maps

Trustees of the British Museum
Among cartographic misfirings, the disaster of Apple Maps is rather minor compared to the history of map mistakes.
There was one potential bright spot, though: Among the many mistakes found in Apple Maps was a rather elegant solution to the continuing dispute between Japan and China over the Senkaku islands. Japan controls them; China claims them. Apple Maps, when released, simply duplicated the islands, with two sets shown side-by-side—one for Japan, one for China. Win-win. (At least until the software update.) Call it diplomacy by digital dunderheadedness.
As some may recall, it was not so long ago that we got around by using maps that folded. Occasionally, if we wanted a truly global picture of our place in the world, we would pull shoulder-dislocating atlases from shelves. The world was bigger back then. Experience and cheaper travel have rendered it small, but nothing has shrunk the world more than digital mapping.
[image] Photo Illustration by Stephen Webster; Sebastiano del Piombo/Art Resource (painting)
There is something valuable about getting lost occasionally, even in our pixilated, endlessly interconnected world.
In medieval Christian Europe, Jerusalem was the center of the world, the ultimate end of a religious pilgrimage. If we lived in China, that focal point was Youzhou. Later, in the days of European empire, it might be Britain or France. Today, by contrast, each of us now stands as an individual at the center of our own map worlds. On our computers and phones, we plot a route not from A to B but from ourselves ("Allow current location") to anywhere of our choosing. Technology has enabled us to forget all about way-finding and geography. This is some change, and some loss.
Maps have always related and realigned our history; increasingly, we're ceding control of that history to the cold precision of the computer. With this comes great responsibility. Leading mapmakers used to be scattered around the world, all lending their distinctive talents and interpretations. These days by far the most influential are concentrated in one place—Mountain View, Calif., home of the Googleplex.
There is something disappointing about the austere potential perfection of the new maps. The satellites above us have seen all there is to see of the world; technically, they have mapped it all. But satellites know nothing of the beauty of hand-drawn maps, with their Spanish galleons and sea monsters, and they cannot comprehend wanderlust and the desire for discovery. Today we can locate the smallest hamlet in sub-Saharan Africa or the Yukon, but can we claim that we know them any better? Do the irregular and unpredictable fancies of the older maps more accurately reflect the strangeness of the world?
The uncertainty that was once an unavoidable part or our relationship with maps has been replaced by a false sense of Wi-Fi-enabled omnipotence. Digital maps are the enemies of wonder. They suppress our urge to experiment and (usually) steer us from error—but what could be more irrepressibly human than those very things?
Among cartographic misfirings, the disaster of Apple Maps is rather minor, and may even have resulted in some happy accidents—in the same way that Christopher Columbus discovered America when he was aiming for somewhere more eastern and exotic. The history of cartography is nothing if not a catalog of hit-and-miss, a combination of good fortune and misdirection.
image
The map here, from explorer Ernest Shackleton's account of his 1914-17 journey to the Antarctic, notes the purported location of 'New South Greenland' (highlighted). Described in 1823 by Capt. Benjamin Morrell, the island could not be located.
The story starts at the Great Library of Alexandria around 330 B.C., the place where the study of geography really began. Its first scholars constructed an important proto-map of the world, based largely on the writings of the Greek historian Herodotus. His nine-volume "Researches" had been completed a century and a half earlier, but his description of the rise and fall of the Persian Empire and the Greco-Persian wars remained the most detailed source of information on the shape of the known world.
These early scholars got a lot right—and inevitably a fair bit wrong. The map they constructed depicted the world as round, or at least roundish, which by the fourth century B.C. was commonly accepted (dismissing the Homeric view that if you sailed long enough you would eventually run out of sea and fall off the end).
Eratosthenes of Cyrene (in modern-day Libya) was one of the first scholars to marshal the new geographical knowledge into the art of cartography, making fullest use of the Library of Alexandria's scrolls, the accounts of those who had swept through Europe and Persia in the previous century, and the pertaining views of the leading contemporary historians and astronomers.
His world map was drawn in about 194 B.C., and the shape of the Victorian-era reconstruction of it (the original vanished long ago) resembles nothing so much as a dinosaur skull. There are three recognizable continents—Europe to the northeast, Africa (described as Libya and Arabia) beneath it and Asia occupying the eastern half of the map. The huge northern section of Asia is called Scythia, an area we would now regard as encompassing Eastern Europe, the Ukraine and southern Russia.
The map is sparse but sophisticated, and noteworthy for its early use of parallels and meridians in a grid system (with, bizarre as it seems to us now, the island of Rhodes—then a major trading post—at the center of everything). The inhabited world (something the Romans would later call "the civilized world") was believed to occupy about one-third of the northern hemisphere and was wholly contained within it.
The northernmost point, represented by the island of Thule (which may have been Shetland or Iceland), was the last outpost before the world became unbearably cold; the most southerly tip, labeled enticingly as Cinnamon Country (corresponding to Ethiopia/Somaliland) was the point beyond which the heat would burn your flesh. There are no poles, and the three continents appear purposely huddled together, as if the huge encroaching oceans and the vast areas of the unknown world are joining forces against them. There is no New World, of course, no China, and only a small section of Russia.
In the second century, the work of Eratosthenes would be one of the templates used to produce what is traditionally regarded as the bridge between the ancient and the modern world: Claudius Ptolemy's "Geographia." This contained a vast list of names of cities and other locations, each with a coordinate, and if the maps in a modern-day atlas were described rather than drawn, they would look something like Ptolemy's work, a laborious and exhausting undertaking based on a simple grid system. He provided detailed descriptions for the construction of not just a world map but 26 smaller areas.
As one would expect, Ptolemy still held a skewed vision of the world, with distortions of Africa and India, and the Mediterranean much too wide. But his projection of the shape of the world is still something we would recognize today, and the placement of cities and countries within the Greco-Roman empire is highly accurate. He gives due credit to another key source, Marinus of Tyre, whose map was the first to include both China and the Antarctic.
But Ptolemy was prone to the biggest and most contagious cartographic vice: Lacking precise information, he just made things up. Like nature itself, mapmakers have always abhorred a vacuum. White space on a map reveals ignorance, and for some this has always been too much to bear.
Ptolemy could not resist filling blanks on his maps with theoretical conceptions, something that plagues exploration to this day. The Indian Ocean was displayed as a large sea surrounded by land, while many of his measurements of longitude (something that was very hard to measure accurately until John Harrison's timepiece won a famous competition in the 18th century) were way off beam. The biggest miscalculation of all, the longitudinal position of the Far East, would eventually suggest to Columbus that Japan could be reached by sailing West from Europe.
But Ptolemy was at least attempting to map on scientific principles. Not so the wonderful mappae mundi, a collection of large conceptions of the world that filled our imaginations from the 11th century to the Renaissance. These maps, which primarily adorned the world's churches and other places of power and learning, succeeded in returning mapping to the dark ages, getting much wrong and gleefully so. Their goal was not navigation and accurate knowledge but rather religious instruction. The maps contained places we seldom see on modern charts these days—Paradise, for instance, and fiery Hell—and the sort of bestiary and mythical imagery one might expect to find in Tolkien's Middle-earth. We can marvel at the mythical bison-like Bonacon, for example, spreading his acidic bodily waste over Turkey, and the Sciapod, a people whose enormously swollen feet were said to make fine sun-shields.
The Renaissance and the golden age of exploration brought forth a stricter regime and hot-off-the-deck maps from Portuguese and Spanish explorers. Cumulatively, these resulted in the famous projection map of Gerardus Mercator in 1569, a plan of the world that still forms the basis of schoolroom teaching and Google Maps. The projection provided a solution to a puzzle that had troubled mapmakers since the world was recognized as a sphere: How does one represent the curved surface of the globe on a flat chart? Mercator's solution remains a boon to sailors to this day, even as it massively distorts the relative sizes of land masses such as Africa and Greenland.
The catalog of cartographic inaccuracies goes on. Those living in California may be curious to know that for more than two centuries their homeland was not attached to the West Coast mainland but was thought to be an island, drifting free in the Pacific. This wasn't a radical act of political will, nor a single mistake (a slip of an engraver's hand, perhaps), but a sustained act of misjudgment.
Stranger still, the error continued to appear on maps long after navigators had tried to sail entirely around it and—with what must have been a sense of utter bafflement—failed. Between its first appearance on a Spanish map in 1622 and its fond farewell in a Japanese publication of 1865, California appeared insular on at least 249 separate maps. Whom should we blame for this misjudgment? Step forward one Antonio de la Acensión, a Carmelite friar who noted the "island" in his journal after a sailing trip in 1602-03.
But my favorite cartographic error is the Mountains of Kong, a range that supposedly stretched like a belt from the west coast of Africa through half the continent. It featured on world maps and atlases for almost the entire 19th century. The mountains were first sketched in 1798 by the highly regarded English cartographer James Rennell, a man already famous for mapping large parts of India.
The problem was, he had relied on erroneous reports from harried explorers and his own imagined distant sightings. The Mountains of Kong didn't actually exist, but like an unreliable Wikipedia entry that appears in a million college essays, the range was reproduced on maps by cartographers who should have known better. It was almost a century before an enterprising Frenchman actually traveled to the site in 1889 and found that there were hardly even any hills there. As late as 1890, the Mountains of Kong still featured in a Rand McNally map of Africa.
And then there was the case of Benjamin Morrell, who had drifted around the southern hemisphere between 1822 and 1831 in search of treasure, seals, wealth and fame. Having found little of the first three, he apparently thought it amusing to invent a few islands en route. The published accounts of his travels were so popular that his findings—including Morrell Island (near Hawaii) and New South Greenland (near Antarctica)—were entered on naval charts and world atlases. In 1875, a British naval captain named Sir Frederick Evans finally began crossing some of these phantoms out, removing no fewer than 123 fake islands from the British Admiralty Charts. It wasn't until Ernest Shackleton's 1914-17 Endurance expedition, however, that the matter of New South Greenland was put to rest. Shackleton found that the spot was in fact deep sea, with soundings up to 1,900 fathoms. Morrell Island came off maps not long after that.
But perhaps we shouldn't be too hard on the early mapmakers, these pioneers of error. I would argue that Morrell and his misguided fellow adventurers made the world a more exciting and romantic place in which to live. Haven't we lost something important as mapmaking has become a science of logarithms and apps and precisely calibrated directions?
Though those who gratefully downloaded Google Maps on their smartphones last week might disagree, there is something valuable about getting lost occasionally, even in our pixilated, endlessly interconnected world. Children of the current generation will be poorer for it if they never get to linger over a vast paper map and then try in vain to fold it back into its original shape. They will miss discovering that the world on a map is nothing if not an invitation to dream.

—Mr. Garfield is the author of "On the Map: A Mind-Expanding Exploration of the Way the World Looks," to be published by Gotham next week.
A version of this article appeared December 22, 2012, on page C1 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: The Endof Map.

domingo, 23 de dezembro de 2012

A biografia "melhorada" do novo lider chines - Shanghai Daily

Obviamente, os jornalistas do Shanghai Daily não podem contar a verdade: que o pai do novo líder chinês foi uma das muitas vítimas do delírio maoista do Grande Salto para a Frente e da Revolução Cultural, e que ele evidentemente não foi "voluntário" para trabalhar com camponeses, e sim um dos muitos filhos de "desviantes" que pagou o preço da repressão totalitária do regime.
Provavelmente não quer mais a volta desses tempos anormais, mas tampouco deve pretender acabar com o monopólio do PCC, que lhe garante hoje tantos privilégios, a começar pela manipulação do poder.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida

Early hardships made Xi into a man of the people

Source: Xinhua  |   2012-12-24  | Shanghai Daily


Xi listens to the comments of a young serviceman. Xi, commander-in-chief of China's armed forces, sat down to "lunch and learn" during his three-day inspection tour of the Guangzhou military theater of operations of the People's Liberation Army on December 8. From 1979 to 1982, Xi was secretary to Geng Biao, a key military strategist who contributed to the founding of the People's Republic of China.

XI Jinping, the recently elected general secretary of the Communist Party of China Central Committee, was an "educated youth" in rural China, an experience that left a lasting impression.

A son of Xi Zhongxun, a Communist revolutionary hero and former vice premier, Xi did not enjoy a life of comfort as a boy. He was born on June 15, 1953, but from 1962, when his father fell into disgrace, Xi experienced tough times. During the "cultural revolution" (1966-1976), he suffered public humiliation and hunger, experienced homelessness and was even held in custody.

At the age of 16, he volunteered to live in a small village in northwest China's Shaanxi Province as an "educated youth." The area was where the Communist revolutionaries, including his father, rose to found the New China.

Life was hard. In the beginning, fleas troubled him so badly he found it difficult to sleep. In the Shaanxi countryside, he had to do all sorts of labor, such as carrying manure, hauling a coal cart, farming and building water tanks.

But as time passed, tough work became easy. The villagers began to take note of the hardworking and capable young man and, by gaining their trust, he was elected village Party chief.

He led the farmers to reinforce the river bank in a bid to prevent erosion, organized a small cooperative of blacksmiths in the village, and built a methane tank, the first in landlocked Shaanxi.

He was once awarded a motorized tricycle after being named a "model educated youth."

However, he exchanged the tricycle for a tractor, a flour milling machine and farm tools to benefit the villagers.

Although he was not in school, Xi never stopped reading. He brought a case of books to the village and was always "reading books as thick as bricks," the villagers in Liangjiahe recalled.

He formed close ties with the villagers during his seven years in the province.

After he was recommended for enrollment at Tsinghua University in 1975, all the villagers lined up to bid him farewell and a dozen young men walked more than 30 kilometers to take him to the county seat for his trip back to Beijing.

Xi never forgot the villagers. Even after he left, he helped the village get access to power, build a bridge and renovate a primary school. When he was Party chief of Fuzhou, capital of Fujian Province, he returned, going door by door to visit people. He gave senior villagers money, and presented children with new schoolbags, school supplies and alarm clocks.

When a farmer friend got sick, Xi, at his own expense, brought him to Fujian for medical treatment.

Xi's affection for the people influenced a number of critical decisions. In the 1980s when many of his contemporaries were going into business or going abroad to study, he gave up an office job in Beijing to work as deputy Party chief of a small county in north China's Hebei Province. Later he became Party chief of Ningde Prefecture in Fujian, one of the poorest regions at the time.

In Ningde, he sometimes traveled for days on roads so bumpy he had to take breaks to recover from back pain.

He once walked nearly five hours on a mountain road to get to a township called Xiadang which was not otherwise accessible, and received the most passionate welcome from villagers, who said Xi was "the highest-ranking official who has come to the village."

He also helped thousands of farmers in Ningde renovate dilapidated thatched houses and guided fishermen to live better lives on the land.

When Party chief of Fuzhou, he took the lead in the country in establishing a mechanism for officials to meet petitioners face to face. Once, he and other senior officials met more than 700 petitioners in two days.

While working in east China's Zhejiang Province, he went into a coal mine nearly 1,000 meters underground and walked more than 1,500 meters along a narrow shaft to visit miners and see their working conditions in 2005.

Revista Brasileira de Planejamento e Orcamento (RBPO)


   
Revista Brasileira de Planejamento e Orçamento (RBPO) 

A Revista Brasileira de Planejamento e Orçamento (RBPO), periódico científico semestral publicado pela ASSECOR, está disponível no site www.assecor.org.br/rbpo.

Neste número, a publicação traz artigos sobre proteção social, gestão por competências, e ainda aborda temas como filosofia política e intervencionismo governamental.


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The Power of Concentration - Maria Konnikova

Opinion

The Power of Concentration

MEDITATION and mindfulness: the words conjure images of yoga retreats and Buddhist monks. But perhaps they should evoke a very different picture: a man in a deerstalker, puffing away at a curved pipe, Mr. Sherlock Holmes himself. The world’s greatest fictional detective is someone who knows the value of concentration, of “throwing his brain out of action,” as Dr. Watson puts it. He is the quintessential unitasker in a multitasking world.
Time Life Pictures/Mansell via Getty Images
A drawing of Sherlock Holmes by Sidney Paget from 1891 in The Strand Magazine. 

More often than not, when a new case is presented, Holmes does nothing more than sit back in his leather chair, close his eyes and put together his long-fingered hands in an attitude that begs silence. He may be the most inactive active detective out there. His approach to thought captures the very thing that cognitive psychologists mean when they say mindfulness.
Though the concept originates in ancient Buddhist, Hindu and Chinese traditions, when it comes to experimental psychology, mindfulness is less about spirituality and more about concentration: the ability to quiet your mind, focus your attention on the present, and dismiss any distractions that come your way. The formulation dates from the work of the psychologist Ellen Langer, who demonstrated in the 1970s that mindful thought could lead to improvements on measures of cognitive function and even vital functions in older adults.
Now we’re learning that the benefits may reach further still, and be more attainable, than Professor Langer could have then imagined. Even in small doses, mindfulness can effect impressive changes in how we feel and think — and it does so at a basic neural level.
In 2011, researchers from the University of Wisconsin demonstrated that daily meditation-like thought could shift frontal brain activity toward a pattern that is associated with what cognitive scientists call positive, approach-oriented emotional states — states that make us more likely to engage the world rather than to withdraw from it.
Participants were instructed to relax with their eyes closed, focus on their breathing, and acknowledge and release any random thoughts that might arise. Then they had the option of receiving nine 30-minute meditation training sessions over the next five weeks. When they were tested a second time, their neural activation patterns had undergone a striking leftward shift in frontal asymmetry — even when their practice and training averaged only 5 to 16 minutes a day.
As little as five minutes a day of intense Holmes-like inactivity, and a happier outlook is yours for the taking — though this particular benefit seems to have been lost on Holmes himself, what with his bouts of melancholy and his flirtations with a certain 7 percent solution. A quick survey will show that the paradox is illusory: Holmes is depressed when there is no target for his mental faculties. Give him a project, and balance is restored.
But mindfulness goes beyond improving emotion regulation. An exercise in mindfulness can also help with that plague of modern existence: multitasking. Of course, we would like to believe that our attention is infinite, but it isn’t. Multitasking is a persistent myth. What we really do is shift our attention rapidly from task to task. Two bad things happen as a result. We don’t devote as much attention to any one thing, and we sacrifice the quality of our attention. When we are mindful, some of that attentional flightiness disappears as if of its own accord.
In 2012, researchers led by a team from the University of Washington examined the effects of meditation training on multitasking in a real-world setting. They asked a group of human resources professionals to engage in the type of simultaneous planning they did habitually. Each participant was placed in a one-person office, with a laptop and a phone, and asked to complete several typical tasks: schedule meetings for multiple attendees, locate free conference rooms, write a memo that proposed a creative agenda item and the like. The information necessary to complete those tasks? Delivered as it otherwise would be: by e-mail, through instant messages, over the phone and in person. The list was supposed to be completed in 20 minutes or less.
After the multitasking free-for-all, participants were divided into three groups: one was assigned to an eight-week meditation course (two hours of instruction, weekly); another group didn’t take the course at first, but took it later; and the last group took an eight-week course in body relaxation. Everyone was put through a second round of frenzy.
The only participants to show improvement were those who had received the mindfulness training. Not only did they report fewer negative emotions at the end of the assignment, but their ability to concentrate improved significantly. They could stay on task longer and they switched between tasks less frequently. While the overall time they devoted to the assignment didn’t differ much from that of other groups, they spent it more efficiently. They engaged, on average, in just over 40 discreet “tasks” — test-related behaviors that had a definable start and end time — spending approximately 36 seconds on each, in contrast to the 48 to 50 average tasks attempted by the other groups — with an average of only 30 seconds spent per activity. They also remembered what they did better than the other participants in the study.
The concentration benefits of mindfulness training aren’t just behavioral; they’re physical. In recent years, mindfulness has been shown to improve connectivity inside our brain’s attentional networks, as well as between attentional and medial frontal regions — changes that save us from distraction. Mindfulness, in other words, helps our attention networks communicate better and with fewer interruptions than they otherwise would.
In a 2012 study at Emory University, increased meditation practice was associated with enhanced connectivity between the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, a part of the brain involved in attention monitoring and working memory, and the right insula, an area that is associated with how well we can monitor our own feelings and thoughts and that is considered a key waypoint between our two major attention networks, the default and the executive.
Not only could this increased connectivity make us better able to switch between tasks and monitor our own attention, but it is indicative of more effective overall management of our finite attentional resources.
Mindfulness training has even been shown to affect the brain’s default network — the network of connections that remains active when we are in a so-called resting state — with regular meditators exhibiting increased resting-state functional connectivity and increased connectivity generally. After a dose of mindfulness, the default network has greater consistent access to information about our internal states and an enhanced ability to monitor the surrounding environment.
These effects make sense: the core of mindfulness is the ability to pay attention. That’s exactly what Holmes does when he taps together the tips of his fingers, or exhales a fine cloud of smoke. He is centering his attention on a single element. And somehow, despite the seeming pause in activity, he emerges, time and time again, far ahead of his energetic colleagues. In the time it takes old detective Mac to traipse around all those country towns in search of a missing bicyclist in “The Valley of Fear,” Holmes solves the entire crime without leaving the room where the murder occurred. That’s the thing about mindfulness. It seems to slow you down, but it actually gives you the resources you need to speed up your thinking.
The difference between a Holmes and a Watson is, essentially, one of practice. Attention is finite, it’s true — but it is also trainable. Through modifying our practices of thought toward a more Holmes-like concentration, we can build up neural real estate that is better able to deal with the variegated demands of the endlessly multitasking, infinitely connected modern world. And even if we’ve never attempted mindfulness in the past, we might be surprised at how quickly the benefits become noticeable.
Until recently, our 20s were considered the point when our brain’s wiring was basically complete. But new evidence suggests that not only can we learn into old age, but the structure of our brains can continue to change and develop. In 2006, a team of psychologists demonstrated that the neural activation patterns of older adults (specifically, activation in the prefrontal cortex), began to resemble those of much younger subjects after just five one-hour training sessions on a task of attentional control. Their brains became more efficient at coordinating multiple tasks — and the benefit transferred to untrained activities, suggesting that it was symptomatic of general improvement.
Similar changes have been observed in the default network (the brain’s resting-state activity). In 2012, researchers from Ohio State University demonstrated that older adults who scored higher on mindfulness scales had increased connectivity in their default networks, specifically in two of the brain’s major information processing hubs. And while we already know that this kind of increased connectivity is a very good thing, there’s more to these particular results. The precise areas that show increased connectivity with mindfulness are also known to be pathophysiological sites of Alzheimer’s disease.
The implications are tantalizing. Mindfulness may have a prophylactic effect: it can strengthen the areas that are most susceptible to cognitive decline. When we learn to unitask, to think more in line with Holmes’s detached approach, we may be doing more than increasing our observational prowess. We may be investing in a sounder mental future — no matter how old we are.

Maria Konnikova is the author of “Mastermind: How to Think Like Sherlock Holmes” and a doctoral candidate in psychology at Columbia.

Brics: coordenacao perfeita na visao de um true believer - Paulo Nogueira Batista Jr.

Os BRICS no FMI e no G-20¹

Paulo Nogueira Batista


Carta Maior, 19/12/2012

Os BRICS têm altos e baixos, momentos de maior proximidade e de maior distância, mas uma coisa é certa: essa tem sido para o Brasil a principal aliança desde 2008, pelo menos no que se refere a G-20 e FMI. Como mecanismo de articulação, os BRICS se tornaram muito mais relevantes do que o G-11, o tradicional agrupamento das 11 cadeiras da Diretoria Executiva comandadas por países em desenvolvimento.


Há controvérsias sobre o real significado e a importância prática dos BRICS (Brasil, Rússia, Índia, China e África do Sul). Os críticos e céticos sustentam que o agrupamento é artificial, mais emblema ou marca do que realidade política. Apontam para as enormes diferenças – históricas, culturais, políticas e econômicas – entre os integrantes. Duvidam de que os cinco países possam, de fato, atuar de forma coordenada.

É inegável que as dificuldades de coordenação dos BRICS são consideráveis. Mas também é inegável que os BRICS vêm marcando presença no campo internacional.

Tenho vivenciado esse processo de coordenação com seus avanços e suas dificuldades, desde 2008, no âmbito da diretoria do FMI e das reuniões do G-20. Quando cheguei a Washington, em abril de 2007, os BRICS não existiam como aliança e realidade política. Na época, tratava-se realmente de uma mera sigla – inventada, como se sabe, por um economista do banco de investimentos Goldman Sachs, Jim O’Neill.

Na diretoria do FMI e no G-20, a atuação conjunta dos quatro países (a África do Sul só se juntou ao grupo em 2011) começou em 2008, por iniciativa da Rússia. A primeira cúpula dos líderes dos BRICS realizou-se em Yekaterinburgo, na Rússia, em 2009.

Os BRICS têm altos e baixos, momentos de maior proximidade e de maior distância, mas uma coisa é certa: essa tem sido para o Brasil a principal aliança desde 2008, pelo menos no que se refere a G-20 e FMI. Ressalto: os BRICS muito mais do que outros países latino-americanos, mesmo os de maior porte. Por motivos que variam de país para país, os latino-americanos não têm tido papel tão relevante como aliados do Brasil no terreno financeiro internacional.

O diretor executivo da Rússia no FMI, Aleksei Mozhin, que está na instituição há 20 anos, disse em seminário recente na Brookings Institution, em Washington, que o surgimento dos BRICS foi a maior mudança na governança do Fundo desde a sua chegada à diretoria do FMI. Posso confirmar que, nos últimos cinco anos, a nossa atuação conjunta tem sido uma alavanca importante em vários temas estratégicos. A afinidade de pontos de vista é particularmente nítida entre as cadeiras brasileira, russa e indiana.

Os cinco diretores executivos dos BRICS no FMI se reúnem com muita freqüência para coordenar posições sobre temas na pauta da diretoria ou iniciativas nossas. Cada passo do grupo demanda muita preparação e articulação. No caso de alguns países, notadamente a China, o processo de tomada de decisão é lento e complexo e inclui consultas a várias instâncias em Pequim. O esforço de articulação é trabalhoso, às vezes penoso, mas produz seus frutos. Em matéria de reformas de quotas e da governança do FMI, por exemplo, os BRICS atuam freqüentemente de forma coordenada, inclusive preparando statements conjuntos para reuniões da Diretoria.

A principal dificuldade de coordenação interna dos BRICS é o peso desproporcional da China quando comparado ao dos demais países. Os chineses têm porte e recursos para, em alguns casos, enxergarem vantagens em negociar separadamente com os EUA e os europeus. Por esse motivo, entendimentos entre Brasil, Rússia e Índia funcionam às vezes como contrapeso à inclinação da China de atuar em faixa própria.

As dificuldades de coordenação entre os BRICS são naturais e inevitáveis. Refletem as diferenças de interesse, de dimensão econômica e de caráter político ou cultural. Apesar dessa diversidade, permanece o fato de que os cinco países têm demonstrado interesse consistente em atuar de maneira coordenada em muitos temas da agenda internacional.

Não se deve tampouco exagerar o significado dessas dificuldades de coordenação. Afinal, mesmo agrupamentos mais homogêneos e mais antigos, como o bloco europeu, se debatem com agudas divergências.

No FMI, a aliança entre os BRICS já é reconhecida como parte da paisagem.
Como mecanismo de articulação, os BRICS se tornaram muito mais relevantes do que o G-11, o tradicional agrupamento das 11 cadeiras da Diretoria Executiva comandadas por países em desenvolvimento³. Apenas as cadeiras europeias têm coordenação mais estreita. A administração da instituição e os diretores executivos dos países avançados fazem o que podem para detectar e explorar diferenças de posições entre os BRICS.

Entre as capitais, a coordenação é dificultada pela distância geográfica. Mesmo assim, os ministros de Finanças e presidentes de Banco Central dos BRICS se reúnem com certa periodicidade – duas ou três vezes por ano, em média, nos anos recents. E se falam com freqüência, apesar das diferenças de fuso horário.

Os chefes de Estado e governo se encontram nas cúpulas anuais – foram quatro desde 2009, a última delas na Índia, em março de 2012. A próxima será na África do Sul, em março de 2013. A de 2014 será no Brasil. Os líderes dos BRICS também se reúnem por ocasião das cúpulas do G-20. Por exemplo, em Cannes, em novembro de 2011, e em Los Cabos, em junho de 2012. No espaço de oito meses, os líderes dos BRICS se reuniram nada menos do que três vezes.

O que os BRICS têm em comum? Para além de todas as diferenças, fundamentalmente o seguinte: são países de grande dimensão econômica, geográfica e populacional. Brasil, Rússia, Índia e China fazem parte dos dez maiores países do mundo em termos de PIB, área e população. Por isso mesmo, todos eles têm capacidade de atuar com autonomia em relação às potências ocidentais – os Estados Unidos e a Europa. Isso vale, sobretudo, para os quatro integrantes originais do grupo mas, creio, que crescentemente também para a África do Sul.

Esse é o aspecto crucial: a capacidade de decidir de forma independente. A grande maioria dos demais países emergentes e em desenvolvimento – mesmo os que têm certo porte – não possui essa capacidade, pelo menos não na mesma medida. Em muitos casos, o que ainda se vê é uma relação de estreita dependência e alinhamento mais ou menos automático aos Estados Unidos ou aos principais países da Europa.

Essa atuação independente reflete, evidentemente, a posição econômico-financeira dos BRICS. Nenhum deles depende de capitais externos europeus ou norte-americanos ou da assistência financeira do FMI ou de outros organismos ainda controladas pelas potências tradicionais. Isso reflete inter alia a sua solidez fiscal, de balanço de pagamentos e de reservas internacionais. Nos anos recentes, os BRICS tornaram-se inclusive credores líquidos do FMI, participando com grandes somas dos empréstimos levantados pela instituição para fazer face à crise iniciada nos países avançados em 2008.

Um dos acontecimentos mais significativos da cúpula do G20 em Los Cabos, no México, em junho, foi a reunião prévia dos líderes dos BRICS. A reunião foi antecedida de muita discussão entre os cinco países e tratou principalmente de dois temas – um deles totalmente novo.

O primeiro tema foi a decisão de confirmar o anúncio de novas contribuições ao financiamento do FMI. A China anunciou a intenção de contribuir com US$ 43 bilhões adicionais; o Brasil, a Rússia e a Índia anunciaram US$ 10 bilhões cada; África do Sul entrará com US$ 2 bilhões.

Na rodada anterior de levantamento de empréstimos para o FMI em 2009, os BRIC entraram com o equivalente a US$ 92 bilhões – a China com US$ 50 bilhões, Brasil, Rússia e Índia com US$ 14 bilhões cada.

O total de US$ 75 bilhões anunciado em Los Cabos ficou condicionado ao entendimento de que o FMI só lançará mão desses novos recursos depois que os fundos existentes na instituição tenham sido substancialmente utilizados. Esse ponto é importante para promover uma adequada distribuição do ônus entre os diferentes credores do FMI, como mencionou o comunicado emitido após a reunião dos BRICS.

O comunicado dos BRICS observou, também, que as contribuições foram anunciadas com base no entendimento de que as reformas do FMI serão plenamente implementadas, conforme acordo a que se chegou no G20 em 2010. Isso inclui, como se sabe, uma revisão abrangente do poder de voto e das quotas.

Essa observação reflete a insatisfação dos BRICS com o ritmo de implementação das reformas do FMI, que expressaram em mais de uma ocasião. Há muita inércia institucional e apego ao status quo no Fundo. Em razão disso, aumentou a disposição dos BRICS de considerar iniciativas na área monetária internacional fora do âmbito do FMI.

A grande novidade em Los Cabos foi exatamente o lançamento de um fundo ou pool de reservas dos BRICS. A iniciativa foi pacientemente costurada em entendimentos ao longo de maio e junho. Na cúpula dos BRICS, formalizou-se a decisão de iniciar a discussão de um fundo de reservas comum dos BRICS. Os líderes dos BRICS pediram a seus ministros de Finanças e presidentes de Banco Central que trabalhem conjuntamente nesse tema e tragam os resultados para a próxima Cúpula dos Líderes dos BRICS, na África do Sul, em março de 2013. Posteriormente, foi criado um grupo de trabalho com representantes dos cinco países, sob coordenação brasileira.

Um fundo de reservas dos BRICS teria natureza preventiva e representaria a criação de um mecanismo de solidariedade financeira entre os cinco países, a ser acionado em momentos de dificuldade. As reservas somadas dos cinco países alcançam aproximadamente US$ 4,3 trilhões – uma base mais do que suficiente para respaldar a iniciativa.

O fundo comum de reservas poderia ser acionado por qualquer país que eventualmente precisasse de apoio, de acordo com regras e procedimentos que estão sendo negociados. O fundo pode ser “virtual”, isto é, as reservas continuariam nos bancos centrais de cada um dos BRICS só sendo desembolsadas se algum dos cinco países necessitar de acesso aos recursos do fundo.

Ainda que não venha a ser utilizado com freqüência, dado que a posição dos BRICS é sólida, a existência do fundo proporciona importante reforço adicional de confiança. A disposição de formalizar o início de uma discussão conjunta revela o estreitamento dos laços entre os BRICS e a sua disposição de enfrentar em conjunto os desafios do quadro internacional.

***

O ministro Antonio Patriota acertou, no meu entender, quando comparou a coordenação entre os BRICS à nossa aproximação com os EUA no início do século XX, época do Barão de Rio Branco [4] . Um grande legado do Barão, disse Patriota, é a capacidade de apreensão das mudanças. Na época em que o dinamismo econômico e o eixo de poder mudavam da Europa para os Estados Unidos, ele teve a capacidade de estabelecer uma boa relação com os EUA. Transferindo para hoje, o movimento equivalente é a coordenação com os BRICS.

NOTAS

[1] Versão ampliada e revista de texto que serviu de base a apresentação em mesa-redonda organizada pela Fundação Alexandre Gusmão e pelo Instituto de Pesquisa de Relações Internacionais, em 31 de julho de 2012.

[2] Diretor executivo no FMI pelo Brasil e mais dez países (Cabo Verde, Equador, Guiana, Haiti, Nicarágua, Panamá, República Dominicana, Suriname, Timor Leste e Trinidad e Tobago). As opiniões expressas neste texto não devem ser atribuídas ao FMI nem aos governos que o autor representa na diretoria da instituição.

[3] O G-11 inclui as cadeiras comandadas por Arábia Saudita, Argentina, Brasil, China, Egito, México/Venezuela, Índia, Irã, as duas cadeiras da África Sul-Saariana e a do Sudeste Asiático.

[4] Em entrevista à Folha de S.Paulo, publicada em 10 de fevereiro de 2012.