Retiro, do relatório sobre "The World Cup and Economics 2006", preparado pela Goldman Sachs(disponível neste link: http://www.gs.com/insight/research/reports/report31.html), estes excertos:
Introduction:
Except for 1978, every competition since 1938 has involved either Germany or Brazil in the final. Argentina and Italy are the two other names immediately associated with glory in the competition, and of course France and England have enjoyed the loftiest level once each.
Tabela dos finais de copa:
World Cup Finals
Year Host Country Winner Runner-up Score
1930 Uruguay Uruguay Argentina 4-2
1934 Italy Italy Czechoslovakia 2-1 (extra-time)
1938 France Italy Hungary 4-2
1950 Brazil Uruguay Brazil 2-1
1954 Switzerland West Germany Hungary 3-2
1958 Sweden Brazil Sweden 5-2
1962 Chile Brazil Czechoslovakia 3-1
1966 England England West Germany 4-2 (extra-time)
1970 Mexico Brazil Italy 4-1
1974 West Germany West Germany Holland 2-1
1978 Argentina Argentina Holland 3-1 (extra-time)
1982 Spain Italy West Germany 3-1
1986 Mexico Argentina West Germany 3-2
1990 Italy West Germany Argentina 1.0
1994 United States Brazil Italy 0-0 (3-2 penalty kicks)
1998 France France Brazil 3-0
2002 Japan/Korea Brazil Germany 2-0
2006 Germany ? ? ?
Football and the BRICs
As for the BRICs and soccer, Brazil has, of course, been the greatest ever national football team and in recent years its stock and equity market one of the best investments. What a lucky country! Long of many commodities that China needs, high interest rates and a fantastic football culture.
All-Time World Cup Table
Team Played Won Drawn Lost Goals (For Against) Points
1 Brazil 87 60 14 13 191 82 150
2 Germany1 85 50 18 17 176 106 129
3 Italy 70 39 17 14 110 67 103
4 Argentina 60 30 11 19 102 71 77
5 England 50 22 15 13 68 45 63
6 Spain 45 19 12 14 71 53 56
7 France 44 21 7 16 86 61 55
8 Sweden 42 15 11 16 71 65 45
9 Netherlands 32 14 9 9 56 36 43
10 Russia/USSR 37 17 6 14 64 44 42
11 Yugoslavia 37 16 8 13 60 46 42
12 Uruguay 40 15 10 15 65 57 40
13 Mexico 41 10 11 20 43 79 35
14 Poland 28 14 5 9 42 36 34
15 Hungary 32 15 3 14 87 57 33
16 Belgium 36 10 9 17 46 63 32
17 Austria 29 12 4 13 43 47 28
18 Czech Republic2 30 11 5 14 44 45 27
19 Romania 21 8 5 8 30 32 26
20 Denmark 13 7 2 4 24 18 20
21 Chile 25 7 6 12 31 40 20
22 Paraguay 19 5 7 7 25 34 19
23 Croatia 10 6 - 4 13 8 18
24 United States 22 6 2 14 25 45 17
25 Bulgaria 26 3 8 15 22 53 17
26 Cameroon 17 4 7 6 15 29 16
27 Switzerland 22 6 3 13 33 51 16
28 Portugal 12 7 - 5 25 16 15
29 Turkey 10 5 1 4 20 17 15
30 Scotland 23 4 7 12 25 41 15
31 South Korea 21 3 6 12 19 49 15
Brazil,
by Arminio Fraga
Double Excitement in 2006
The World Cup coincides with Presidential elections in Brazil. As always, it promises to be an exciting year. Last time, after a marvelous win in football, Brazil went on to elect Mr Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (or Lula as he prefers to be called), a labor leader and founder of the Workers' Party. This was supposed to blow the Brazilian economy to smithereens, but in the end it did not. As it turned out, the campaign was a bloody affair, one of those instances where the tension around the elections easily surpassed that of the World Cup. But I must not get ahead of myself: first, a bit of history.
A Bit of History: Football and the Economy
As part of the homework I did to write this article I watched some tapes of old World Cups. One in particular caught my attention, that of 1982. Brazil had at the time a
team that many considered one of our best ever. It was loaded with talent, including names such as Zico, Sócrates, Falcão, Júnior, Eder and Cerezo. Brazil breezed through the early matches, and needed only a tie with Italy to move to the next round. In a game that few Brazilians (and Italians for that matter!) will ever forget, we lost 3-2 (three goals by Paolo Rossi). Twice Italy scored and twice we managed to tie, beating a very solid defense. Each time we went back on the offensive, we allowed Italy to score again and pull ahead. Italy went on to win the Cup, and we came back home thinking about what had gone wrong.
I was a 24-year-old graduate student then, full of dreams and hopes, and somewhat impatient in defeat. My view of that game was that it showed Brazil at its very worst: a talented bunch lacking the ability to get their act together to win. After the game I swore never to watch another football game in my life, a promise I kept for 11 years until my football-crazy children (born in 1983 and 1986) dragged me back in time to see our sweet win in 1994.
Little did we know in 1982 that soon after the defeat in Spain would come the debt default in Mexico, and shortly after in Brazil as well. The Latin American debt
crisis marked the beginning of what became known as the Lost Decade for Brazil, a period most of us would like to forget. As in the match against Italy, during this period we were unable to get our act together, in this instance with more dramatic consequences: from 1982 until 1993 we experienced no growth in income per capita,
hyperinflation and the impeachment of a President. Brazil as a nation was incapable of organizing itself so as to deliver good economic and social results. The fight
against inflation is a good example: we tried every gimmick in the book, from price controls to freezes on bank deposits, but nothing worked until the Real Plan of
1994, when the proper monetary and fiscal tools were combined with an ingenious approach to dealing with the 100% indexation of wages and most prices.
Quite a lot has been achieved since then, including significant fiscal adjustment, the privatization of many industries, better education and health, financial sector
adjustment and a successful move to an inflation targeting and floating exchange-rate regime. Growth did improve, but modestly. If we compare the growth of GDP per capita in the BRIC countries over this period, Brazil’s 1.2% pales in comparison to China’s 8.0%, India’s 4.5% and even Russia’s 2.3%. This is the key issue for Brazil’s future. Can Brazil do what it takes to deliver sustainable economic growth and development? Can we derive any lessons from the recent history of Brazil’s football?
Football Back on Track...
In 1994 Brazil finally wiped out hyperinflation at home and won the World Cup in the US. Was this just a coincidence, or was it a sign of some positive underlying
force propelling Brazil forward? Obviously, it is hard to push this analogy too far, but the Brazilian economy had a good run after the win in Pasadena, and struggled after losing in the finals of the 1998 World Cup in Paris to a fine French squadron.
This year’s team is once again loaded with talent, and is in essence very similar to the winning team of 2002.
Granted, a few new names (such as Kaká and Robinho) bring some new blood to the action, replacing Rivaldo and a few others. But the core unit of Ronaldinho, Ronaldo, Cafú and Roberto Carlos is back. One cause for concern is the age and condition of the last three, now past 30 and showing signs of less energy. Their presence
in the line-up is subject to heated debate here in Brazil, and Mr Parreira (the head coach) is, for the moment, keeping his cards close to his chest. My view is that
Ronaldo is a winner and will once again deliver a topnotch performance for Brazil. He came back from a horrendous injury to become the star of the Cup in 2002, and it is likely that he will pull it off one last time this year. As for the two wings, most observers in Brazil worry that it would be too much for them to run up and down the field again, as they did in 2002, and so we must follow the news to see whether they convincingly prove to be ready for another World Cup or must be replaced.
All of this brings back memories of 1966, the year an injured Pelé and a past-his-prime Garrincha played together for the last time – and failed to make it past the first round for the only time in Brazil’s history.
My take on all this is that Brazil will once again be competitive, blending experience and youth, and playing hard and smart. Can we do the same in the economic and political sphere?
...But the Economy Still Needs Some Work
As for the economy, much is at stake in these elections. The debate is just starting, so it is a bit early to draw conclusions, but for now the main focus seems to be on
the corruption scandals that have grabbed the headlines since last year. Needless to say, these are matters of great importance that must be debated and addressed. But the winner of this year’s elections must also deal with the challenge of returning Brazil to a path of fast and sustainable growth.
Brazil’s low growth is caused by low investment (under 20% of GDP) and by numerous microeconomic barriers, as illustrated by Brazil’s rank of 119 out of 155 in the
World Bank’s most recent Doing Business evaluation. In the near term, some pick-up in growth is to be expected because interest rates have started to come down from the
ultra-high levels needed to curb inflation. Rates should continue to go down so long as fiscal discipline is maintained.
But further work must take place if Brazil is to sustain faster rates of growth. Some topics deserve the urgent attention of the next administration: at the top of the list is the need to curb the growth in government expenditure, which has kept an average pace of nearly 10% in real terms over the last decade. As this is done and lower interest rates become a reality, the supply side of the economy must also be freed, so as to avoid the stop-andgo pattern of growth so often seen in recent decades. This means tackling a myriad of microeconomic and regulatory issues – a daunting but not unfeasible task. As with Brazilian football, some basic lessons for
economic success appear to have been learned: for example, a solid macroeconomic framework is needed for growth, as is a focus on education and health. But unlike in football, where Brazil has played in the last three World Cup finals and won two, in the political sphere a reasonable degree of consensus around a growth strategy still needs to be articulated. Let us just hope that as in football (where our drought lasted 24 years) in the economy the current 24-year era of low growth is coming
to an end. I am hopeful, but still a bit skeptical. It could well be that at 48 I have become even more impatient than I was at 24.
Arminio Fraga
Founder, Gávea Investimentos
Former President, Central Bank of Brazil
Estatísticas do futebol brasileiro na Copa do Mundo:
Odds: 11/4 World Ranking: 1
1st Round Match Schedule
Date Venue Against Local Time
13-Jun Berlin Croatia 21:00
18-Jun Munich Australia 18:00
22-Jun Dortmund Japan 21:00
Previous Appearances: 17
Host Year Outcome
Uruguay 1930 Eliminated in 1st Round
Italy 1934 Eliminated in 1st Round
France 1938 Reached Semi Finals
Brazil 1950 Finished in 2nd Place
Switzerland 1954 Reached Quarter Finals
Sweden 1958 Winners
Chile 1962 Winners
England 1966 Eliminated in 1st Round
Mexico 1970 Winners
Germany 1974 Finished in 4th Place
Argentina 1978 Finished in 3rd Place
Spain 1982 Eliminated in 2nd Round
Mexico 1986 Reached Quarter Finals
Italy 1990 Eliminated in 2nd Round
USA 1994 Winners
France 1998 Runners Up
Korea/Japan 2002 Winners
Won Drawn Lost
World Cup Results
Games Played 87
Won 60
Drawn 14
Lost 13
Goals Scored 191
Goals Against 82
Yellow Cards 64
Red Cards 9
Voilá, aí temos um pouco de economia da copa do mundo...
_____________________
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Nenhum comentário:
Postar um comentário