Acho que esta é a tragédia deste livro:
Brazil in Transition: Beliefs, Leadership, and Institutional Change
Lee J. Alston, Marcus André Melo, Bernardo Mueller & Carlos Pereira
Os autores, segundo a sua própria introdução -- primeiro capítulo disponível neste link: http://press.princeton.edu/chapters/s10745.pdf -- acreditavam (até o final de 2013 ou o começo de 2014 provavelmente) que o Brasil se encontrava num caminho virtuoso de desenvolvimento econômico e político, com um processo de inclusão fiscalmente responsável.
A apresentação é igualmente otimista: "Brazil's growth and inflation became less variable, the rule of law strengthened, politics became more open and competitive, and poverty and inequality declined."
Se eles tivessem esperado mais um pouco -- e os sinais precursores daquilo que eu chamo de A Grande Destruição já tinham começado a se manifestar desde o final da década passada -- eles teriam constatado como tudo isso era fugaz, ilusório e sobretudo totalmente errado. Eles não perceberam, desde o Mensalão (2004-2005), que o partido hegemônico era uma organização criminosa? Que o Estado de Direito estava em declínio, em face de todas as ilegalidades perpetradas pelo partido neobolchevique? Que as bases econômicas da inclusão social eram muito precárias?
Eu posso selecionar dezenas de artigos meus, desde meados dos anos 2000, para demonstrar como o Brasil não podia crescer, como as políticas econômicas eram equivocadas, como as instituições estavam sendo minadas por dentro, e como a prevalência do Estado de Direito era uma completa ficção.
Os "endorsements", por alguns autores até famosos nesse terreno, são patéticos, vistos a uma distância de pouco mais de um ano. Como especialistas desse quilate podem se deixar levar por esse falso otimismo?; como eles não viram as bases frágeis do regime de poder e de políticas econômicas do lulopetismo em acão? Foram enganados pelos autores do livro ou pela propaganda do regime? Em lugar da "emergency of a new Brazil", como um desses apoiadores escreve, o que temos agora é a sobrevivência do velho Brasil, só que em lugar dos coroneis de antigamente temos os novos mafiosos da política.
Lamento pelo livro e pelos seus autores, mas eles vão ter de preparar uma segunda edição, corrigindo todo o falso otimismo demonstrado nesta edição.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Brazil is the world's sixth-largest economy, and for the first three-quarters of the twentieth century was one of the fastest-growing countries in the world. While the country underwent two decades of unrelenting decline from 1975 to 1994, the economy has rebounded dramatically. How did this nation become an emerging power? Brazil in Transition looks at the factors behind why this particular country has successfully progressed up the economic development ladder. The authors examine the roles of beliefs, leadership, and institutions in the elusive, critical transition to sustainable development.
Analyzing the last fifty years of Brazil's history, the authors explain how the nation's beliefs, centered on social inclusion yet bound by orthodox economic policies, led to institutions that altered economic, political, and social outcomes. Brazil's growth and inflation became less variable, the rule of law strengthened, politics became more open and competitive, and poverty and inequality declined. While these changes have led to a remarkable economic transformation, there have also been economic distortions and inefficiencies that the authors argue are part of the development process.
Brazil in Transition demonstrates how a dynamic nation seized windows of opportunity to become a more equal, prosperous, and rules-based society.
Lee J. Alston is the Ostrom Chair, professor of economics and law, and director of the Ostrom Workshop at Indiana University, as well as research associate at the NBER. Marcus André Melo is professor of political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil. Bernardo Mueller is professor of economics at the University of Brasília. Carlos Pereira is professor of political science at the Brazilian School of Administration at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro.
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Brazil in Transition:
Hardcover | May 2016 | $39.50 | £29.95 | ISBN: 9780691162911 |
| Brazil
is the world's sixth-largest economy, and for the first three-quarters
of the twentieth century was one of the fastest-growing countries in the
world. While the country underwent two decades of unrelenting decline
from 1975 to 1994, the economy has rebounded dramatically. How did this
nation become an emerging power? Brazil in Transition looks at
the factors behind why this particular country has successfully
progressed up the economic development ladder. The authors examine the
roles of beliefs, leadership, and institutions in the elusive, critical
transition to sustainable development. Analyzing the last fifty years of Brazil's history, the authors explain how the nation's beliefs, centered on social inclusion yet bound by orthodox economic policies, led to institutions that altered economic, political, and social outcomes. Brazil's growth and inflation became less variable, the rule of law strengthened, politics became more open and competitive, and poverty and inequality declined. While these changes have led to a remarkable economic transformation, there have also been economic distortions and inefficiencies that the authors argue are part of the development process. Brazil in Transition demonstrates how a dynamic nation seized windows of opportunity to become a more equal, prosperous, and rules-based society. Lee J. Alston is the Ostrom Chair, professor of economics and law, and director of the Ostrom Workshop at Indiana University, as well as research associate at the NBER. Marcus André Melo is professor of political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil. Bernardo Mueller is professor of economics at the University of Brasília. Carlos Pereira is professor of political science at the Brazilian School of Administration at the Getúlio Vargas Foundation, Rio de Janeiro. Endorsements: "Possibly the biggest thing we don’t understand in social science is how and why a society moves from one institutional equilibrium to another. To tackle this you need history, economics, political science, sociology, and psychology. This pathbreaking book on the emergence of a new Brazil incorporates all of these and more."--James Robinson, coauthor of Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty "In contrast to the conventional wisdom that attributes development to geography, policies, culture, and luck, the authors of Brazil in Transition persuasively show that the transformation of institutions and beliefs, the role of leadership, and the seizing of opportunities account for Brazil’s economic performance during the last few decades. This is a powerful framework and argument, elaborated intensively for the Brazilian case, but clearly appropriate to other developing economies around the world."--Kenneth Shepsle, Harvard University "This book makes the optimistic case for the future of democracy, showing how an autocratic, cronyistic regime can transform itself into a democracy that combines a long-term focus on social inclusion with rational economic policy. An accessible, learned, and compelling account."--Charles Calomiris, coauthor of Fragile by Design: The Political Origins of Banking Crises and Scarce Credit More Endorsements Table of Contents Series:
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