Putin crê numa vitória inevitável da sua guerra de agressão à Ucrânia- NYT war briefing

 The New York Times, January 18, 2023

Welcome to the Russia-Ukraine War Briefing, your guide to the latest news and analysis about the conflict.

NATO and its allies will decide on Friday in Germany whether to send Western tanks to Ukraine.  The U.S. will dip into artillery stockpiles in Israel to supply Ukraine. The Netherlands is considering sending a Patriot missile system to Ukraine. President Vladimir Putin called Russia’s victory in the war “inevitable.” Get the latest updates here.

The site of the helicopter crash in Bovary, outside Kyiv.Sergei Supinsky/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

A deadly helicopter crash

Ukraine’s minister of internal affairs and his team were among the 14 people killed today in a helicopter crash in a suburb of Kyiv. The minister, Denys Monastyrsky, was the highest-ranking government official to die since Russia’s invasion began nearly 11 months ago.

The authorities opened an investigation into the cause of the crash, but there were no initial indications that the helicopter had been shot down. “We will soon find out whether it was sabotage, a technical malfunction or a violation of flight safety rules,” Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to the internal affairs ministry, wrote on Telegram.

Ukraine’s State Emergency Service said that the 14 people, including a child, died when the helicopter went down this morning near a kindergarten in Bovary, on the outskirts of Kyiv, shortly after parents had dropped off their children at school. A witness told Ukraine’s national public broadcaster that she had seen the helicopter on fire and spinning in a circle before it hit the ground. The nine people who were in the helicopter all died.

In a video address to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, President Volodymyr Zelensky called the crash a “terrible tragedy” and linked it directly to Russia’s invasion, saying that whether the crash was accidental or not, “every death is the result of war.”

A minute of silence in memory of the crash victims at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Fabrice Coffrini/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

The crash was a blow to Zelensky’s inner circle. As internal affairs minister, Monastyrsky oversaw the country’s police, national guard and border patrol units. They included tens of thousands of combatants who have fought in the war, although some of the direct command had transferred to the army.

He was also a member of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, which sets wartime goals, and among the top security officials who remained in Kyiv with Zelensky in the first days of the war.

Two other senior interior ministry officials died: Yevhen Yenin, the first deputy minister for internal affairs, and Yurii Lubkovich, the state secretary, Ukraine’s Parliament said in a statement.

Zelensky began his address at the World Economic Forum by observing a minute of silence in honor of those killed in the crash.

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The bridge linking Crimea to Russia after it was hit with a truck bomb in October.Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

Targeting Crimea

For months, the U.S. has declined to give Ukraine weapons that it could use to attack Crimea, a territory that was illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 and that Putin views as integral to his quest to restore past Russian glory.

But that stance is starting to shift, my colleagues Helene Cooper, Eric Schmitt and Julian Barnes report from Washington.

After months of discussions with Ukrainian officials, the Biden administration is starting to concede that Kyiv may need weapons that can strike Crimea, even if such a move could escalate the conflict, according to U.S. officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Pentagon has assessed that Ukraine’s position in any future negotiations would be stronger if its military could show Russia that its control of Crimea could be threatened. U.S. officials also say fears that Russia will retaliate using a tactical nuclear weapon have eased, though they caution that the risk remains.

The New York Times

Ukrainian officials are worried that their country can’t survive years of conflict while Russia continues to pound cities and towns, so it has now become essential for Ukraine to put Russia’s control of Crimea in jeopardy, a senior U.S. official said.

In talks with Ukraine, U.S. officials are discussing the use of American-supplied weapons, including Bradley fighting vehiclesand HIMARS, to potentially target the supply route connecting Crimea to Russia via the Russian-occupied cities of Melitopol and Mariupol. However, President Biden is not yet ready to give Ukraine the long-range missile systems that would allow Ukrainian forces to attack Russian installations on the peninsula.

Crimea is home to around 70,000 dug-in Russian troops and numerous Russian military bases. It served as a staging ground for Russia to seize land in southern Ukraine last year. The Biden administration believes that hitting Russia’s rear lines coming out of Crimea could hugely damage Moscow’s ability to push its front lines further, officials say.

“Without Crimea, the whole thing falls apart,” said Evelyn Farkas, the top Pentagon official for Ukraine during the Obama administration.