Temas de relações internacionais, de política externa e de diplomacia brasileira, com ênfase em políticas econômicas, em viagens, livros e cultura em geral. Um quilombo de resistência intelectual em defesa da racionalidade, da inteligência e das liberdades democráticas.
O que é este blog?
Este blog trata basicamente de ideias, se possível inteligentes, para pessoas inteligentes. Ele também se ocupa de ideias aplicadas à política, em especial à política econômica. Ele constitui uma tentativa de manter um pensamento crítico e independente sobre livros, sobre questões culturais em geral, focando numa discussão bem informada sobre temas de relações internacionais e de política externa do Brasil. Para meus livros e ensaios ver o website: www.pralmeida.org. Para a maior parte de meus textos, ver minha página na plataforma Academia.edu, link: https://itamaraty.academia.edu/PauloRobertodeAlmeida.
segunda-feira, 7 de janeiro de 2019
Siria: a maior tragedia humana desde a Segunda GM - book review
segunda-feira, 25 de setembro de 2017
Independencia do Curdistao: saiba quem sao os curdos, o que pretendem, o que vai acontecer na regiao depois do plebiscito
What To Know About The Independence Referendum In Iraqi Kurdistan
National Public Radio,Here's what to know:
Who and where are the Kurds?
An estimated 30 million Kurds live in territory overlapping northern Iraq, Turkey, Iran and Syria. They are the fourth-biggest ethnic group in the region after Arabs, Persians and Turks.
About 6 million Kurds — almost 20 percent of the the Iraqi population — live in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, as well as in Baghdad and a swath of territory claimed by both the Kurds and the Iraqi government.
Have the Kurds ever had their own country?
When the Ottoman Empire was dissolved after World War I, Kurds demanded their own state, but hundreds of thousands were expelled from their traditional areas and dispersed to other parts of Turkey instead.
After World War II, the Soviet Union backed a Kurdish self-governing state in what is now Iran. That state, the Republic of Mahabad, lasted less than a year.
The most autonomy Kurds have had since then is in Iraq. In the three northern Kurdish provinces, Kurds control the land borders with neighboring countries, elect their own parliament, maintain their own security forces (known as the peshmerga) and draft their own laws.
What was the U.S. role in helping to create modern Iraqi Kurdistan?
After Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait in 1990, the U.S. formed a coalition to drive him out in 1991. The Kurds (and Iraqi Shiites in the south) rose up against him.
The Iraqi army attacked the north, and more than 1 million Kurds fled their homes and tried to escape over the mountains in winter. Thousands died.
That year, the U.N. Security Council approved a U.S.-led no-fly zone preventing Iraqi planes from flying over the north and south of Iraq. In 1992, Iraqi Kurds established their own regional government.
The decade that followed was a tough time. The Iraqi government punished the Kurds with trade sanctions, and the Kurdish region was included in an international trade embargo against Iraq.
After 2003, when Saddam was toppled, Kurds started rebuilding and foreign investment poured in.
Why do Iraqis Kurds insist on independence?
Most Kurds say they will never feel safe as part of Iraq.
From 1986 to 1988, Iraqi forces destroyed thousands of Kurdish villages in a campaign by Saddam's Arab Socialist Baath party to "Arabize" northern Iraq. At a conservative estimate, more than 100,000 Kurds were killed. Chemical gas attacks in the town of Halabja in 1988 killed thousands of women and children.
They also blame Iraqi Arabs for the rise of ISIS, which has massacred members of the ancient Yazidi minority. The Kurds consider Yazidis to be Kurds.
An estimated 2,000 Iraqi Kurdish peshmerga forces were killed fighting ISIS.
The Kurds also want to control their own economy. When ISIS attacked three years ago, Iraqi forces refused to fight. Kurdish fighters moved in to push ISIS back and took control of some of the biggest northern oil fields, as well as the disputed city of Kirkuk.
The Kurdish government accuses Baghdad of reneging on an agreement to give it a share of oil revenues. Baghdad says the Kurdistan region is illegally exporting oil. That has led to an economic crisis in the Kurdish region.
Which countries are supporting the Kurdish independence referendum?
Israel is the only country that has come out in favor of it. Israel has long-standing security and business ties to the Kurdistan region and would love to have a non-Arab ally in the Middle East.
In a more lukewarm endorsement, France — after initial opposition — recently said it wouldn't oppose the vote taking place.
But the United States and some of Iraq's neighbors oppose the referendum. Iran and Turkey have warned the Kurds not to go ahead with the vote. The U.S. wants to avoid the prospect of another conflict between Baghdad and the Kurdish government while they are still fighting ISIS. After 2003, Kurdish leaders agreed to an Iraqi constitution that calls for negotiations over disputed areas, so holding the referendum in Kirkuk and other cities now is seen as provocative.
The Iranian, Turkish and Iraqi foreign ministers announced Friday they would take coordinated measures against the Kurds — likely economic sanctions — if they go through with the vote.
Why is the referendum controversial within the Kurdistan region?
The vote is being driven by regional President Massoud Barzani, whose Kurdistan Democratic Party controls the Kurdish regional government. Barzani is 71, and many believe he wants the referendum to be part of his legacy.
But there are deep divisions among Kurdish political parties.
Although Barzani still holds the position and power of president, his term actually ended two years ago. Until last week, Parliament hadn't met for two years after the Parliament speaker, who is from an opposition party, was blocked from entering.
Some Kurds believe that their political leaders should be working on strengthening democracy and rescuing the economy instead of holding a referendum. There is also discontent about corruption among Kurdistan's political dynasties while people like teachers and the peshmerga go without salaries because of the economic crisis.
Is there a chance that voters won't support independence?
No. There is a "No for Now" campaign that argues this isn't the right time — but even Kurds who are on the fence are overwhelmingly expected to vote yes.
So what does holding the referendum actually mean in the end?
It's a signal and a statement of intent that Kurdish leaders plan to pursue independence. But there's no timeline, and the vote doesn't trigger any moves to independence. It's likely though to trigger retaliation from Iraq's neighbors and allies. The Kurds supporting this, though, believe it's worth it.
quarta-feira, 5 de abril de 2017
Armas quimicas: ditador da Siria continua matando seu povo - The Economist
Syria’s latest atrocityBashar al-Assad kills at least 72 with chemical weapons
One young boy was filmed slowly suffocating on the ground, his chest heaving and his mouth opening and closing like a fish out of water. Photographs show dead children lined up in rows on the floor or piled in heaps in the back of a vehicle, their clothes ripped from them by rescuers who used hoses to try to wash the chemicals from their bodies. Other images show victims foaming from their mouths or writhing on the ground as they struggle for air. Hours after the attack began, witnesses say regime warplanes circled back over the area and dropped bombs on a clinic treating survivors.
Latest updates
The probable passivity of the West ought not to come as much of a suprise. When the Syrian government gassed to death more than 1,400 of its own people on the outskirts of Damascus in August 2013 it seemed inevitable that America would respond by launching air strikes against the regime. One week after the attack—the deadliest use of chemical weapons since Saddam Hussein gassed Iraqi Kurds in 1988—John Kerry delivered one of his most bellicose speeches as secretary of state, arguing the case for American military action in Syria. “It matters if the world speaks out…and then nothing happens,” Mr Kerry said.
Yet nothing, at least militarily, is what happened. Instead, working with the Americans, the Russians brokered a deal that saw the Syrian regime supposedly dismantle its chemical weapons programme. The Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) destroyed about 1,200 tonnes of Syria’s chemical stockpile. Barack Obama hailed the deal as a triumph for diplomacy over force.
Yet chemical attacks by regime forces continued, experts believe. Last year, American and European officials began to voice growing fears that Damascus might have held onto nerve agents and other lethal toxins, in defiance of the deal cooked up by Mr Obama and Vladimir Putin. “Syria has engaged in a calculated campaign of intransigence and obfuscation, of deception, and of defiance,” Kenneth Ward, America’s representative to the OPCW, said in July. “We…remain very concerned that [chemical warfare agents]…have been illicitly retained by Syria.”
All these fears now appear to have been borne out. As part of the deal in 2013 to end Syria’s chemical weapons programme, both America and Russia promised to punish the Syrian regime should it use chemical weapons again. Despite evidence of the regime’s repeated use of chlorine gas since then, neither side has honoured this promise. In February, Russia once again blocked efforts at the UN Security Council to sanction military and intelligence chiefs connected to the country’s chemical weapons programme. A similar fate doubtless awaits the latest attempt by Britain, France and America at the Security Council. Hours after the attack, the three countries demanded a resolution ordering the Syrian government to hand over all flight logs, flight plans and the names of air force commanders to international inspectors. Russia called the resolution “unacceptable”.
Barring a significant shift in American policy towards military action, the latest use of chemical weapons is unlikely to alter much the war’s trajectory. The rebels are increasingly weak. They lost their enclave in the city of Aleppo, the opposition’s last big urban stronghold, in December. Pockets of resistance remain around Damascus, north of Homs city, and along the southern border with Jordan; but these areas grow ever more isolated. In Idlib an alliance led by a group linked to al-Qaeda has gained strength, allowing America to argue that there are few appropriate rebel partners left to work with on the ground.
Indeed, now that Donald Trump is in charge, removing Bashar al-Assad from power is no longer a stated aim of American policy in Syria. In recent weeks, senior American officials have said for the first time in public that they are willing to live with Mr Assad as they concentrate on defeating Islamic State. Ironically, this approach is in fact more likely to fuel further extremism in Syria as jihadists seek to take advantage of the vacuum that America’s political disengagement now presents them with. It also means that, with Mr Assad at the reins, the Syrian regime will continue to drop gas on its own people. There is nothing to stop it.
domingo, 11 de outubro de 2015
Revue L'Histoire: la destruction de Palmyre par l'Etat Islamique - Maurice Sartre
Palmyre, la dernière visite
segunda-feira, 30 de junho de 2014
A desintegracao da Siria - Paulo Sergio Pinheiro (FSP)
E tudo começou porque um ditador pretendeu manter-se no poder ante os protestos pacíficos de cidadãos por uma abertura política e por mais democracia. Massacrados estes, o caminho estava aberto para os fundamentalistas.
Ditadores, por mais que pretendam "unir" o país, sempre colocam seus interesses pessoais acima dos da nação, e por isso devem ser afastados pela pressão da comunidade internacional. Como isso não foi possível na Síria, temos essa situação de caos absoluto.
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
A DESINTEGRAÇÃO DA SÍRIA
Estratégias da ilusão
Paulo Sérgio Pinheiro
Presidente da comissão independente internacional de investigação da ONU sobre a República Árabe da Síria
Folha de SP, 29/06/2014
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segunda-feira, 23 de junho de 2014
Oriente Medio: finalmente o fim da Primeira Guerra Mundial? - Foreign Policy
Cem anos depois do início do conflito mundial que mudou a face do mundo, para sempre, tanto no plano político, quanto no geográfico e sobretudo no econômico, trata-se de notícia realmente histórica.
Cabe ver se as grandes potências, que são atualmente os Estados Unidos e, num plano bem menor, os aliados da OTAN, e do outro lado a Rússia (como sempre) e ainda mais distante, a China, sem falar do Irã, do Egito e da Arábia Saudita permitirão a ascensão do novo califado anunciado pelo ISIL...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
Foreign Policy morning bulletin, June 23, 2014
Top news: The Iraqi government has abandoned the only legal border crossing with Jordan to Sunni tribal groups. Tribal groups are negotiating to hand the crossing, Turaibil, over to militants from the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). ISIS also took control over the two main border crossings with Syria over the weekend.
Jordan is putting its military on alert to protect its 112-mile-long border with Iraq, fearing ISIS militants could spill over. The strategically important airport town of Tal Afar in western Iraq has also fallen out of the Baghdad government's control as ISIS extends its sweep across western Iraq.
ISIS's goal is to create an Islamic state across the Sunni Arab world and has said that it intends to erase the borders drawn by colonial powers after World War I.
Meanwhile, Secretary of State John Kerry is in Baghdad to meet with Iraqi political leaders in an effort to push them toward reconciliation. That might create the confidence in the central government necessary for defeating ISIS.
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sábado, 17 de maio de 2014
Egito e Siria: um pouco da miseria do mundo - Foreign Policy
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The lawyers for two of three Al Jazeera journalists being tried in Egypt on charges of fomenting violence have quit accusing the Qatar-based news agency of a "vendetta." The lead defense lawyer, Farag Fathy said "Al Jazeera is using my clients" and that the network was "fabricating quotes" attributed to him. Additionally, the court has demanded defense lawyers pay $170,000 to view footage prosecutors say shows the journalists fabricated news reports to incite unrest. The trial has been adjourned until May 22, and the journalists have again been denied bail. Meanwhile, Al Jazeera Arabic correspondent Abdullah Elshamy, who has been held without charges since August 2013, has been transferred to solitary confinement after smuggling a video out of Tora prison highlighting his deteriorating health. Elshamy has been on hunger strike for 107 days protesting his detention.
Syria
A car bombing killed at least 43 people in the Syrian province of Aleppo near the Bab al-Salam border crossing into Turkey. The area is the main route used by Syrians refugee fleeing into Turkey. The region has been controlled by the Islamic Front's Tawhid Brigade, which has been engaged in fierce fighting with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) since January. Iran has reportedly been recruiting thousands of Afghan refugees to fight alongside President Bashar al-Assad's forces in Syria. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has been offering $500 a month as well as Iranian residency and has been training Afghan fighters. Meanwhile, growing frustrated with the inability of the United Nations to deliver humanitarian aid to Syrians, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the United States is exploring other options for providing aid, including circumventing the Syrian government. Additionally, Kerry stated he has seen evidence suggesting that Assad's forces have used chlorine gas in attacks on rebel fighters and civilians in recent months, which would be against the weapons convention signed by the Syrian government.
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domingo, 16 de fevereiro de 2014
Siria: como destruir um pais na indiferenca geral do mundo externo - WP
KILIS, Turkey — The Syrians who reach this Turkish border town after escaping the northern city of Aleppo bring stories of horror about exploding barrels that fall from the sky.
The worst part is the terrifying anticipation as the barrel bombs are unleashed from warplanes roaring overhead, said one man who fled after three bombs demolished the street where he was living. The sight of rescuers scraping human remains from the sidewalk outside her home prompted another of the refugees to leave. A third Syrian, a grandmother, said she left simply because life had become unsustainable in the wrecked, rubble-strewn city, where entire neighborhoods have been almost completely depopulated.
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sábado, 15 de fevereiro de 2014
A Siria perto de ser uma nova Bosnia? - Nicholas Burns (Boston Globe)
Syria
The U.N. mission to evacuate civilians from the besieged Old City of Homs and deliver aid resumed Wednesday after being suspended for a day. Talal Barzai, the governor of Homs, said operations had been suspended due to "logistical difficulties." The temporary cease-fire is set to expire Wednesday, but Barzai said it could be extended if more people wish to leave the area. The United Nations expressed concern over men and boys who have been detained after being evacuated. According to the United Nations, about 400 men between the ages of 15 and 54 have been detained, while the governor put the number at 330. The disparity in counts has raised concerns that 70 men have been transferred to the custody of security agencies. - See more at: http://diplomatizzando.blogspot.com/2014/02/siria-um-genocidio-em-curso-em-camara.html#sthash.50V47fzW.dpuf
Parece que a hipótese se aproxima, mas ninguém se adianta, pois a Síria não é a Sérvia... é pior...
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
"A Srebrenica moment in Syria?"
quarta-feira, 12 de fevereiro de 2014
Siria: um genocidio em curso, em camara lenta, mas visivel e comprovado...
Não que todos os opositores sejam democratas, longe disso: existem fundamentalistas islâmicos entre eles, que talvez promovesses outras matanças, caso chegassem ao poder, e seriam intolerantes contra outras religiões que não a deles, enquanto a Síria, mesmo sob uma das ditaduras mais anacrônicas do planeta, sempre foi um regime laico, tolerante, multiconfessional.
A questão é a dos direitos humanos e da democracia, e percebe-se que um genocício está em curso, quando se leem notícias como estas:
"Syria
The U.N. mission to evacuate civilians from the besieged Old City of Homs and deliver aid resumed Wednesday after being suspended for a day. Talal Barzai, the governor of Homs, said operations had been suspended due to "logistical difficulties." The temporary cease-fire is set to expire Wednesday, but Barzai said it could be extended if more people wish to leave the area. The United Nations expressed concern over men and boys who have been detained after being evacuated. According to the United Nations, about 400 men between the ages of 15 and 54 have been detained, while the governor put the number at 330. The disparity in counts has raised concerns that 70 men have been transferred to the custody of security agencies. U.N. mediator Lakhdar Brahimi said peace talks between the Syrian government and opposition are not making much progress. Brahimi has moved up a meeting to Thursday with U.S. and Russian officials, hoping they can put pressure on their respective allies. On Wednesday, Russia said it would veto a U.N. resolution on humanitarian aid access in Syria if it remains in its current form. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov said of the draft that its "aim is to create grounds for future military action against the Syrian government." Meeting in Washington, U.S. President Barack Obama and French President Francois Hollande criticized Russian aims to block the resolution. Hollande said, "Why would you prevent the vote of a resolution if, in good faith, it is all about saving human lives?" Meanwhile, Syrian warplanes pounded the strategic rebel-held town of Yabroud near Lebanon Wednesday. Syrian government forces backed by Hezbollah fighters have stepped up an offensive in apparent efforts to consolidate control over the border region."
Na última segunda-feira, 10/02, fui a New Haven, na Universidade de Yale, onde assisti a este documentário sobre os genocídios do século 20, e sobre a vida de Rafael Lemkin, o polonês que assistiu ao genocídio de seu próprio povo pelos nazistas, e dos judeus, em seu país e nas cercanias, e que inventou o nome de genocídio para qualificar esses crimes de eliminação de pessoas.
Creio que o termo se aplica inteiramente ao que está ocorrendo na Síria.
Eis a informação sobre o documentário, que recomendo.
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segunda-feira, 16 de setembro de 2013
Siria: toda a atencao para as armas quimicas; mas e o desastre humanitario?
Paulo Roberto de Almeida
sexta-feira, 6 de setembro de 2013
Xi para Obama: seja pacifico, paciente, calmo, nao se meta (sobre a Siria) - Shanghai Daily
Na verdade, o bom mesmo é não fazer nada, deixar que se matem; em qualquer hipótese, o vencedor vai continuar comprando armas e vendendo petróleo, se for o caso...
Chinese President Xi Jinping told his US counterpart Barack Obama yesterday that the crisis in Syria should not be resolved through a military strike and urged him to consider a political solution.
terça-feira, 3 de setembro de 2013
A lei dos homens, do direito escrito, e o dever moral, do direito natural: Siria e Bolivia
Paulo Roberto de Almeida